Down the tubes?

[Cons68]

Arabian Business is a good barometer. Things are looking a lot like 2009, layoffs and at the same time RE people claiming that this is the moment to buy.

Only thing missing the rarara brigade. This time only one reader and even he has been silent for a few weeks already. It seems there is not even money to pay trolls to post, or that the number of idiots is much lower this time.

Let see.

Thats what Dubai is. Cash stops coming in and watch the music stop. I can't say to much as you never know who's reading this stuff and I have a friend who is stuck out there at the moment. Picked up by the police for the most ridiculous thing. So trivial that I still can't get my head around it being a 'crime'.

Has had his passport withheld for over 2 months and just now got a date for a court appearance end of this month. Obviously during this period he has had to pay for accommodation, food etc cost of the first lawyer AED25 K and he's just got a second for AED50 k as he is pretty scared at this point and was losing faith in the first guy. He's been told that it could be upto 3 mths prison, although hoping a fine and deportation.

Another friend who employs people out there. Was interviewing some candidates and some 'officials' turn up and fine him on the basis that they were not interviewee's but employees and as they were not registered then obviously a fine it was AED 50 K per 'employee'.

I could go on. The only business model they have is to turn themselves into a sun, sand and sax centre and relax rules on everything which goes with that even more so. Lets see how that works out in that part of the model.

I have a 1 bed in marina with a reliable tenant, all decent offers considered! I guess BREXIT worked out there as I made back the value lost in the last 2 years!

[Aimara]

Thats what Dubai is. Cash stops coming in and watch the music stop. I can't say to much as you never know who's reading this stuff and I have a friend who is stuck out there at the moment. Picked up by the police for the most ridiculous thing. So trivial that I still can't get my head around it being a 'crime'.

Has had his passport withheld for over 2 months and just now got a date for a court appearance end of this month. Obviously during this period he has had to pay for accommodation, food etc cost of the first lawyer AED25 K and he's just got a second for AED50 k as he is pretty scared at this point and was losing faith in the first guy. He's been told that it could be upto 3 mths prison, although hoping a fine and deportation.

Another friend who employs people out there. Was interviewing some candidates and some 'officials' turn up and fine him on the basis that they were not interviewee's but employees and as they were not registered then obviously a fine it was AED 50 K per 'employee'.

I could go on. The only business model they have is to turn themselves into a sun, sand and sax centre and relax rules on everything which goes with that even more so. Lets see how that works out in that part of the model.

I have a 1 bed in marina with a reliable tenant, all decent offers considered! I guess BREXIT worked out there as I made back the value lost in the last 2 years!

Expats who managed to leave the country were lucky. Rest ended up in jail. As for the locals the govt setup a slush fund to cover those defaulters and escape / release from jail.

As you said nothing changes.

[Cons68]

I know this is anecdotal, but my view after meeting some finance people in London and in Dubai is that the London crowd is far more upbeat than the Dubai one. I was surprised as I expected my friends in London to be quite concerned about Brexit, They were but less than I expected, and the ones based in Dubai were much less optimistic:

-Nobody with half a brain buys the Expo bullshit.

-Oil prices seem to be low for a while, double whammy as most people spending money are coming from oil intensive economies.

-Pakistan getting closer to have the port running threatening Jebel Ali.

-Iran opening may bring opportunities but also cannibalize existing business.

So yes, I would say that things do not look really good but as usual no reliable figures coming from any institution.

Cheers.

[GroinStrain]

Had not visited the area for a while but on leaving the pub at around 1 am this morning noticed 2 police with sniffer dogs checking the bins along Mankool road. Has the threat level been raised or is this normal around Bur Dubai? Never seen this before in the last 10 years.

[Sen69]

Think the Chinese crack down on corruption also has reduced buying interest. People from government are not that keen on using expensive watches as before. If they can't use expensive items why then buy.

[IndiMumbaiGuy]

Hi,

I agree with a lot of what Krypto has said below.

Also, the retail business especially in the luxury segment was hugely dependent on the Russians and Chinese coming in. These customers have either stopped coming in or there are also finding some luxury items including watches cheaper in European markets than Dubai. With the economy in the Euro zone also being in the toilet (Greece / Spain / Portugal etc), the tourism industry is really desperate for the Chinese to come in there. London / Spain seems to be flooded with Chinese and this has hit Dubai as well.

I don't see the oil recovering for the next 2 years at least. Which means that unless Iranian money flows into this market, the real estate market is going to be depressed. But, Dubai is resilient and things will stabilize towards the middle / end of the year and the mongering would therefore also become stable by then.

Till then. Tighten your belts in more ways than one. !

[Krypto Knight]

I just saw this thread and I have some additional thoughts on the situation.

The obvious, "major" financial concern, as most below have mentioned is oil. I have a secondary list that are all very important in their own light (Particularly to Dubai). In fact, due to my work in the field of retail, I noticed the start of the downturn even before the price of oil was causing concern.

In no particular order here are the other issues I've observed causing stress on the Dubai economy.

1) In January 2014 UAE government changes real estate laws. In order to buy property "off plan" you must put 50% down payment in cash (Not borrowed although this is likely skirted) This slowed the real estate market as fewer people are willing to buy a property not even built with 50% cash down (Even if they have it).

2) Russian financial woes including oil and sanctions. Even before the price of oil really dropped hard, the Russians felt the sting from the massive sanctions levied on them by the European Union and US after their annexation of Crimea and other actions in Ukraine. The Ruble was cut more then in half almost overnight. Then the oil drop really crushed them. We all know Russians are heavy investors in Dubai, particularly property. When the property you are buying goes from 2 million AED to 4 MIllion AED over night, you probably don't buy. Also see point 1 above.

3) Chinese economic collapse. While not as big an investor in Dubai as the Russians, the Chinese tourism market has dramatically increased in recent years and this must have been effected. Also the Chinese concerns have affected economies all over the world in general.

4) The European economic problems and the drop of the Euro / rise of the dollar and AED dollar peg. Europeans for years have been a large part of the tourist trade in Dubai, today, saddled with debt, economies on the brink, and the Euro dropping by more then 30%, Europeans are less able or willing to travel here and when the do they spend less with less in their pockets.

Except for issue #1, I think most of these concerns are greater for Dubai then for Abu Dhabi, as Dubai is so tourist centric.

If you look at the whole list, very few of these issues look set to resolve anytime soon. The one bright spot is Russia pulling out of Syria, and rumours that when sanctions are set to expire in June, they will not be renewed (At least by Europe).

The rise of oil recently likely doesn't signal a V shaped rebound. A lot of talk is that a big percentage of it became traders short covering. The good news is we've likely seen the bottom put in around the mid to upper $20 price range. Probably a very good long term trade if we retest the lows. With the ability of frackers to turn back on quickly, anytime the price of oil hits $40 they will flood the market again. The only thing to truly turn around oil is a major rebound in the world economy. Do any of us see that happening anytime soon?

Would be interested in any further comments on these points.

Krypto Knight.

[Snow1998]

It did 2008/09 when locals banks got caught with their pants down very badly with overexposed and over leveraged loan portfolios to very dodgy people (locals and expats) especially in the real estate sector.

Nothing will change and that comment is typical of how the press say one thing but the word on the street is very different LOL.

Expats who managed to leave the country were lucky. Rest ended up in jail. As for the locals the govt setup a slush fund to cover those defaulters and escape / release from jail.

As you said nothing changes.

[Wicked Roger]

The president of central bank of the UAE Mr. Khalifa Al Kinday said " We will not allow any bank to go bankrupt on the UAE. The country will support all the UAE banks regardless of the economic situation. ".

You can read some local UAE newspaper to read the artical.

Well if he did not say that there would a collapse in the market so clearly he will say the central bank steps in.

It did 2008/09 when locals banks got caught with their pants down very badly with overexposed and over leveraged loan portfolios to very dodgy people (locals and expats) especially in the real estate sector. Then it stepped in to re capitalize local banks before they crashed. Local banks are poorly run IMHO and break all sorts of rules because some like it that way as suits certain people.

Nothing will change and that comment is typical of how the press say one thing but the word on the street is very different LOL.

[Cons68]

The president of central bank of the UAE Mr. Khalifa Al Kinday said " We will not allow any bank to go bankrupt on the UAE. The country will support all the UAE banks regardless of the economic situation. ".

You can read some local UAE newspaper to read the artical.

And your point is.

[Tkn14]

The president of central bank of the UAE Mr. Khalifa Al Kinday said " We will not allow any bank to go bankrupt on the UAE. The country will support all the UAE banks regardless of the economic situation. ".

You can read some local UAE newspaper to read the artical.

[Vigilantemoscow]

http://www.thenational.ae/uae/govern...for-the-future

It seems changes are coming across the board.

And Redundancies in the private sector are widespread now.

I would dare to say clubs are less busy too or just my perception? I think the ones keeping their jobs in country will enjoy cheaper mongering in the coming months.

The way I see this is that the fundamentals of supply and demand are just not present in most GCC. Economical growth is mostly driven by government spending, and that is now severly turned back. Remember the reassuring words at the presentation of the new fiscal budget, that spending would be unaffected. How fast things change. Recently, they announced a 30% cut across the board, and expats are the first in line to get sacked. Lot of folks already have been let go off and more will follow.

Problem though is that austerity measures are risky since they could lead to social unrest. Locals luuuv their government, but take away the benefits and opinion can change overnight. Quite similar to a WG's loyalty.

[Love Tactics]

The way I see this is that the fundamentals of supply and demand are just not present in most GCC. Economical growth is mostly driven by government spending, and that is now severly turned back. Remember the reassuring words at the presentation of the new fiscal budget, that spending would be unaffected. How fast things change. Recently, they announced a 30% cut across the board, and expats are the first in line to get sacked. Lot of folks already have been let go off and more will follow.

Problem though is that austerity measures are risky since they could lead to social unrest. Locals luuuv their government, but take away the benefits and opinion can change overnight. Quite similar to a WG's loyalty.

[Cons68]

Big retail companies at GCC experienced less that expected spending on the forth quarter especially from Saudi Arabia. As the future of the Oil rich counties is still vague, more consumers are being much more savvy on spending and saving money.

They spent like drunk sailors, mostly in vanity projects, or in subsidizing an ineffective local workforce and bribing them with government jobs. They will need to raid their SWF now.

[Cons68]

Large? Yes. Most? No. Supporting OpCos? The Qatari challenge is combination of reduced oil prices (and reduced chain margin) and spending for the upcoming World Cup (infrastructure, arenas.). Think during last slowdown Dubai was hit more than other ME places.

Yes most. The organization has changed substantially, and the group level operations will suffer (once you remove the untouchable qataris) over a 70% attrition rate. A few will be absorbed into the Qatari operation. The rest will have until end of school year.

That does not mean that this company will get rid of most of the expats, but the one in a specific place (corporate group level), not sure what will happen in the Qatari operation. There was lot of fat, but as usual in these cases the butcher takes as much meat as fat.