Thread: Medellin Chit Chat Thread
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04-30-18 13:00 #282
Posts: 1077A bit more insight into the strength of the USD, and the impact of interest rates on a currency:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...ing-2018-04-30
As the article notes, the Pound Sterling is taking a beating (again) because the Bank of England isn't likely to hike rates in the near future. However, in the past week the consensus is that the Fed will hike rates soon, and it looking at four, not three rate hikes in the near future. As the article quotes on analyst as saying "The Fed is on a course to raise rates again in June and we believe that they will use this month's meeting to telegraph their intent to pull the trigger again and this will send the dollar sharply higher.
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04-27-18 02:25 #281
Posts: 1077Originally Posted by Dickhead [View Original Post]
And BTW, the Euro began the year at 3578, and fell to 3336 a few weeks ago. Is that what you call virtually nowhere?
While the COP has strengthened against most other currencies in recent months, we have seen the Indonesian Rupiah fall to a three year low against the dollar and approaching a 10 year low. So, shouldn't I thank Donald Trump for the cheap pussy I enjoyed in Bali last month?
My point is, you cannot selectively blame politicians for economic events. They have less influence over economic matters than people think they do, and less than they would like you to believe. The big player in the strength of the dollar over the long term, in my opinion, is going to be the new "Fed". A central bank that is "hawkish" is going to strengthen the currency, just as central bank that can't keep inflation in check is going to see its currency slump. What money manager is going to put their funds in a currency whose value is eroding due to inflation. A currency gets attractive when the spread between inflation and the yield on deposits or bonds is positive. Right now, not many money managers or investors want to stick their money in bonds if they don't have do. With three interest rate increases in the cards, the "smart money" would prefer to wait until bond and money market yields are higher. Its just the same as you would want to take out a mortgage and buy a home now, instead of a year or two. Because it will likely be more expensive to finance a home purchase then. Making investments in fixed income will be a better value in that same time period. Note that around 45% of all US Treasury debt was held by overseas entities of last fall. The Japanese government holds almost 8% of all US Debt. Almost 20% of all buyers at US Treasury auctions are foreign, down from almost 30% ten years ago. So, you can see the impact this will have on a currency. If other big central banks don't follow suit, soon (and they don't appear to be), you will likely see a trend towards a stronger dollar, regardless of who is in the oval office and what noise they tweet. Because that is all it is, noise. What the Fed does, actually matters immensely, and what they merely imply in the published Fed "Minutes" or what the Fed Chairman mumbles can move mountains in the world of finance.
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04-26-18 15:05 #280
Posts: 4Headed to Medellin today.
I really like reading some of the post and blogs on the happenings of Medellin. Are any of you guys hanging out there this week? I'the like to meet up and have a beer or 2. I have rent and Airbnb near Llera Park. Looking for to the fellowship!!
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04-26-18 03:19 #279
Posts: 651Food for Thought
Originally Posted by FunLuvr [View Original Post]
Weaker vs Stronger dollar. I guess it depends on whether you are buying or travelling. Clearly this forum would favor a very strong dollar!
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04-25-18 19:35 #278
Posts: 148Hey Dickhead
Originally Posted by Dickhead [View Original Post]
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04-16-18 15:22 #277
Posts: 1042Originally Posted by MrEnternational [View Original Post]
I haven't seen any data on clothes, but I venture to say that most clothes sold in the US are imported. How much of an average individual's budget is spent on clothes? I say very little.
Overall, I think a weaker dollar is better for the US populace as a whole, but not good for those of us who travel internationally on a regular basis.
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04-15-18 22:39 #276
Posts: 1077Originally Posted by PepolesBuddy [View Original Post]
Note that the dollar's weakness is not universal around the globe. The Indonesian Rupiah is very weak against the USD right now. Weaker than it was a year ago, and since I just got back from Bali, that was a wonderful thing. Excellent short time service with a young, slender Javanese girl for under $22? Best mongering value I've had so far. The Philippine Piso is also at its lowest point against the dollar in a decade.
But, if you are currency conscious, as I am, then keep your eyes on the currency rates of monger locations you want to visit. That's what I do, because there are many places I want to visit and I choose my destinations partially on how strong the USD is very the destination currency. I figure I'll visit Germany again when the Euro is weak and maybe monger in Spain or Portugal for the first time when the Euro is weak. Dickhead seems to like those locations. I do hope to visit Indonesia and Colombia while their currencies are still weak. Maybe some day, Thailand's government will enact a more sensible monetary policy and let the overpriced Baht weaken a bit. Thai exports are complaining about the strength of the Baht, and tourism is also off this year. At barely 31 Baht to the USD, I'm not planning to visit the Land of Smiles for very long.
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04-15-18 21:34 #275
Posts: 1749Originally Posted by PepolesBuddy [View Original Post]
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04-15-18 19:38 #274
Posts: 15925Originally Posted by FunLuvr [View Original Post]
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04-15-18 18:24 #273
Posts: 1042Originally Posted by Dickhead [View Original Post]
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04-15-18 12:24 #272
Posts: 64Madga.
Originally Posted by Dickhead [View Original Post]
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04-15-18 10:47 #271
Posts: 3359It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.
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04-14-18 23:22 #270
Posts: 118Colombian Peso getting stronger.
Why is the fucking peso getting stronger vs. US dollar? Oil prices have not increased that much. And I want the old 1 usd = 3.000 peso so I can get better value.
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03-25-18 09:26 #269
Posts: 3359Originally Posted by Dccpa [View Original Post]
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03-24-18 23:48 #268
Posts: 444Originally Posted by Wolf662 [View Original Post]