Medellin Chit Chat Thread

[Eszpresszo]

A bit more insight into the strength of the USD, and the impact of interest rates on a currency:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...ing-2018-04-30

As the article notes, the Pound Sterling is taking a beating (again) because the Bank of England isn't likely to hike rates in the near future. However, in the past week the consensus is that the Fed will hike rates soon, and it looking at four, not three rate hikes in the near future. As the article quotes on analyst as saying "The Fed is on a course to raise rates again in June and we believe that they will use this month's meeting to telegraph their intent to pull the trigger again and this will send the dollar sharply higher.

[Eszpresszo]

It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.

Okay by that logic, George W. Bush is responsible for cheap FKK adventures, when the Euro fell to 85 cents in May of 2001. And don't forget, gas is still cheaper now than it was 5 years ago, when everyone was paying well over $3 a gallon. I saw gas for 1.49 right around the time Barack Obama was elected. Are you ready to blame Barack Obama for high gas prices?

And BTW, the Euro began the year at 3578, and fell to 3336 a few weeks ago. Is that what you call virtually nowhere?

While the COP has strengthened against most other currencies in recent months, we have seen the Indonesian Rupiah fall to a three year low against the dollar and approaching a 10 year low. So, shouldn't I thank Donald Trump for the cheap pussy I enjoyed in Bali last month?

My point is, you cannot selectively blame politicians for economic events. They have less influence over economic matters than people think they do, and less than they would like you to believe. The big player in the strength of the dollar over the long term, in my opinion, is going to be the new "Fed". A central bank that is "hawkish" is going to strengthen the currency, just as central bank that can't keep inflation in check is going to see its currency slump. What money manager is going to put their funds in a currency whose value is eroding due to inflation. A currency gets attractive when the spread between inflation and the yield on deposits or bonds is positive. Right now, not many money managers or investors want to stick their money in bonds if they don't have do. With three interest rate increases in the cards, the "smart money" would prefer to wait until bond and money market yields are higher. Its just the same as you would want to take out a mortgage and buy a home now, instead of a year or two. Because it will likely be more expensive to finance a home purchase then. Making investments in fixed income will be a better value in that same time period. Note that around 45% of all US Treasury debt was held by overseas entities of last fall. The Japanese government holds almost 8% of all US Debt. Almost 20% of all buyers at US Treasury auctions are foreign, down from almost 30% ten years ago. So, you can see the impact this will have on a currency. If other big central banks don't follow suit, soon (and they don't appear to be), you will likely see a trend towards a stronger dollar, regardless of who is in the oval office and what noise they tweet. Because that is all it is, noise. What the Fed does, actually matters immensely, and what they merely imply in the published Fed "Minutes" or what the Fed Chairman mumbles can move mountains in the world of finance.

[ArmyStrong]

I really like reading some of the post and blogs on the happenings of Medellin. Are any of you guys hanging out there this week? I'the like to meet up and have a beer or 2. I have rent and Airbnb near Llera Park. Looking for to the fellowship!!

[Villainy]

I don't know the specific group of products you are referring to, but most consumer goods sold in the US are produced in the US. On an individual basis, food takes the third most out of most budgets, behind housing and automobile related expenses. Almost all food bought in the US is produced in the US. Automobile imports amount to very little of the total automobile market.

I haven't seen any data on clothes, but I venture to say that most clothes sold in the US are imported. How much of an average individual's budget is spent on clothes? I say very little.

Overall, I think a weaker dollar is better for the US populace as a whole, but not good for those of us who travel internationally on a regular basis.

I have a few thoughts. On food, I guess it depends on what you are talking about. If you mean fresh vegetables, the majority comes from Mexico and Central / South America. If you mean meats, yes almost all from the US. Auto imports? Not so much but that is because a lot of Japanese Auto-Makers have built plants in the US so the numbers are a little (a lot) of gibberish. Clothes? Yes you are right, mostly imported (including tennis shoes which may have the Nike symbol but they have the made in China ID if you look at the identifiers).

Weaker vs Stronger dollar. I guess it depends on whether you are buying or travelling. Clearly this forum would favor a very strong dollar!

[Aragorn]

It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.

I'm trying to reach El Toro Rojo. Been offered a post in Bogota.

[Fun Luvr]

Yes, but most shit sold in the US is made in other countries. So that same shit is going to cost Americans more.

I don't know the specific group of products you are referring to, but most consumer goods sold in the US are produced in the US. On an individual basis, food takes the third most out of most budgets, behind housing and automobile related expenses. Almost all food bought in the US is produced in the US. Automobile imports amount to very little of the total automobile market.

I haven't seen any data on clothes, but I venture to say that most clothes sold in the US are imported. How much of an average individual's budget is spent on clothes? I say very little.

Overall, I think a weaker dollar is better for the US populace as a whole, but not good for those of us who travel internationally on a regular basis.

[Eszpresszo]

Why is the fucking peso getting stronger vs. US dollar? Oil prices have not increased that much. And I want the old 1 usd = 3.000 peso so I can get better value.

Its weakness to the dollar to some extent. But, the COP is still pretty weak against the USD from a historical standpoint. As someone also pointed out, it was much stronger 4 years ago. And when somebody complains, "I only used to pay XXXX for short-time", just ask then what the exchange rate was at the time. When I was in Medellin two years ago from this month, the COP was only slightly weaker, whereas the Euro was a lot weaker when I was in Germany just over two years ago. Colombia is still a good value compared to most places that are easy striking distance from the US.

Note that the dollar's weakness is not universal around the globe. The Indonesian Rupiah is very weak against the USD right now. Weaker than it was a year ago, and since I just got back from Bali, that was a wonderful thing. Excellent short time service with a young, slender Javanese girl for under $22? Best mongering value I've had so far. The Philippine Piso is also at its lowest point against the dollar in a decade.

But, if you are currency conscious, as I am, then keep your eyes on the currency rates of monger locations you want to visit. That's what I do, because there are many places I want to visit and I choose my destinations partially on how strong the USD is very the destination currency. I figure I'll visit Germany again when the Euro is weak and maybe monger in Spain or Portugal for the first time when the Euro is weak. Dickhead seems to like those locations. I do hope to visit Indonesia and Colombia while their currencies are still weak. Maybe some day, Thailand's government will enact a more sensible monetary policy and let the overpriced Baht weaken a bit. Thai exports are complaining about the strength of the Baht, and tourism is also off this year. At barely 31 Baht to the USD, I'm not planning to visit the Land of Smiles for very long.

[Combo]

Why is the fucking peso getting stronger vs. US dollar? Oil prices have not increased that much. And I want the old 1 usd = 3.000 peso so I can get better value.

Do you realize that the rate was 1800 just four years ago? The USD is still quite strong against the Col Peso, even if it has pulled pack recently. Honestly if it stayed right here for the foreseeable future, I'd be happy as hell.

[Mr Enternational]

A weaker dollar is good for most people who live in the United States. It means goods produced in the US will be cheaper on the world market.

Yes, but most shit sold in the US is made in other countries. So that same shit is going to cost Americans more.

[Fun Luvr]

It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.

I suppose if you don't get laid when you want to, or at the price you want, that's also Trump's fault. In the past 90 days, when the dollar has fallen the most in the last year and a half, the Euro has fallen almost the same - 7. 8% and 7. 2%. A weaker dollar is good for most people who live in the United States. It means goods produced in the US will be cheaper on the world market. Since the US is now an oil exporting country, higher oil prices allow for more exploration. That creates more US jobs.

[HBoy54]

It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.

My first trip to Medellin, Nov 2015, dollar bought 3300 pesos. No problema. After the trade war with China and the the nuclear war with Russia it won't matter.

[Dickhead]

It is the dollar getting weaker. Dollar down 18% against the euro since Trump was elected and began running his mouth. Oil prices up nearly 30%. Look at the COP vs. The euro. Gone virtually nowhere.

[PepolesBuddy]

Why is the fucking peso getting stronger vs. US dollar? Oil prices have not increased that much. And I want the old 1 usd = 3.000 peso so I can get better value.

[Dickhead]

come up with a new international language.

They tried that. It was called Esperanto. Didn't work.

[Iguana Six]

Downtown.

When you're alone, and life is making you lonely.

You can always go.

Downtown.


Downtown.

Your post was a breath of fresh air after the stale posts of the last few days! Kudos!