Thread: Stupid Shit in Kyiv
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03-02-22 22:09 #167
Posts: 516Random thoughts about some things to watch
1. Rumors or info about Putin's physical or mental health.
I've seen speculation about Putin having some kind of serious physical ailment. And, while it's pure speculation and probably impossible to verify, if there's any truth to it that would be supportive of the idea that Putin is acting to cement his legacy and believes he doesn't have a lot of time to do so. I looked at a few recent pics of Putin and I thought his face looked a bit bloated and not as healthy as in recent years, but it's certainly possible I could be seeing something that isn't there. Whatever the case, I'm keeping an eye out for any info on the health issue. As far as mental health is concerned, the relevance is obvious. So I'm also watching for reports that Putin is "losing it" or otherwise falling into a bunker mentality that would hinder rational decision making.
2. The effects of both macro and micro sanctions.
I'm sure the Kremlin anticipated and planned for expected sanctions. But there may be some macro (country-level) sanctions they didn't foresee, like the freezing of much of their central bank reserves. But what I'm watching with great interest is the effect of micro-level sanctions, such as turning off Apple and Google Pay, and also Visa and MasterCard. Other examples are major shipping companies refusing to service Russia, Boeing denying parts and service for Russian planes, and Intel+AMD+TSMC refusing to provide microchips. All of these are like the proverbial pieces of straw on the camel's back. It's hard to know if one, or some combination, will be a back-breaker, but they're worth watching because I don't think the Kremlin could have anticipated all of them.
3. What's happening with oligarchs.
So far all the reports I've seen about oligarchs shows them walking a fine line. Some have called for negotiations and peace, but in a way that avoids directly contravening Putin. BUT, actions speak louder than words. And today Roman Abramovich has put Chelsea Football Club up for sale and committed to put any profits into a fund for Ukraine relief. Anyone who follows football understands what a huge development this is, and how much pressure Abramovich must be feeling to give up one of his prize possessions. It's my understanding he feared sanctions or seizure and that motivated him to sell while he still could. So I'll be watching what happens to other oligarchs and how much pressure and pain is brought to bear. To what extent they can influence Putin is unclear, at this point, but losing their support would be a significant development.
Just my two-cents worth about stuff that might be worth watching. Hoping and praying for the safety of Ukraine!
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03-02-22 21:05 #166
Posts: 516Possible new development re evacuation
Originally Posted by ReinerOtto [View Original Post]
Obviously there are a lot of variables involved, and Russia might not agree or might make unacceptable demands, but China has influence that no other country has. If they're expressing concern, Russia might listen. And I also saw a report that said Russia might be willing to discuss a ceasefire when they next meet with the Ukrainian delegation.
Again, the devil will be in the details, but anyone in Kyiv (or elsewhere) who wants to leave should be ready to move quickly if and when a window opens. Good luck to all, and may you be safe!
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03-02-22 17:56 #165
Posts: 13Originally Posted by Bhamsookh1 [View Original Post]
Seriously gripping YT vid. Glad they made it to the border.
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03-01-22 19:52 #164
Posts: 242Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
As for invading, there is no easy way to stop insurgency without horribly brutal tactics, so what I would have done (after knocking out Ukrainian air defenses) is establish a Russian controlled corridor between Chernobyl and Transnistria (between Kyiv and Zhytomyr) avoiding large towns, thus surrounding Ukraine on all sides (blockade of Black Sea ports). Maintain that corridor clear by any means necessary (artillery and air response to attacks, periodic fuel air bombardment of corridor itself, landmines), allow civilian traffic to go west but not east, then just wait. Use professionals to establish and maintain the corridor, use conscripts to launch diversionary attacks elsewhere. Assuming the corridor idea is feasible, thus is far less risky and destructive than entering cities.
My regular left Kyiv for her village 100 km away immediately after the invasion, where she has family. Other than some shortages in stores, no signs of war near her village.
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03-01-22 17:01 #163
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
Your thoughts on the Ukraine situation are very insightful. I think Putin's days as the head of Russia are limited. Putin is launching a new cold war. 2022 is a much different time and place then 1948. Russians are now more linked to the West. Modern communications make closing off a country much more difficult. These will be dark days for the Russian economy.
Putin's future is in the hands of the military leadership on whether they will support a coup. Economic pressures will rally the citizenry. The soldiers have mothers, fathers, sisters and brothers. From what we hear, Putin is isolated and has perhaps psychotic yearnings for the past. Russia likely can't project its power like the days of the old Soviet Union. I'm not sure he is inspiring confidence.
The Russia-China thing seems to be a little joke for the Chinese. I'm sure they enjoyed Putin poking the West and challenging Western hegemony. However, it remains to be seen that the Chinese even believed Putin would invade the Ukraine. China might be more self-sufficient than Russia, but they are also very much more interlinked with Western economies. While China might relish a Taiwan that they view as China, they have never been as aggressive as the former Soviet Union in projecting military power around the globe. So it's debatable whether they view Putin's desire to cobble back the Soviet-Russian empire favorably.
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11-02-21 15:49 #162
Posts: 1932Originally Posted by DramaFree11 [View Original Post]
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11-02-21 00:36 #161
Posts: 2794L. M whenever you want to go let me know, but that require you getting off your computer and stop complaining. Lived there done that. You were also invited to MYT, but you never went. You just complain and try and get others in trouble. You can read my reports everything is well documented.
Yes, I talk about the decline of Kiev, but I also speak of other destinations that are better. I also compliment others when they write great reports. You might want to do the same.
Sooner or later Admin will figure out you game, you are just a big trouble maker and extremely jealous. I am in MTY every second weekend, having a great time, something you know very little about.
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11-01-21 17:17 #160
Posts: 1932Originally Posted by DramaFree11 [View Original Post]
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11-22-20 01:21 #159
Posts: 2794Originally Posted by Stevie69 [View Original Post]
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11-22-20 00:07 #158
Posts: 332Nooooo
Please, the first meeting is one drink at 8 or 9 PM in the evening, too late for dinner, and early enough to head to your place if you hit it off or she is a (semi) pro. AIf, after one drink, things seem okay, buy another round. Make sure YOU order the drinks, and pay each drink immediately after you get it (just in case you have to leave suddenly, you tell the waiter / bartender). After 3-5 drinks, either close the deal and head to your place or, if she is really a nice girl, agree to meet for a walk in the park the next day.
I had good experiences with some nice girls, really marriage material girls, who are so concerned with being categorized as gold-diggers that they refuse to accept anything! After 2 hours of conversation, I have to nearly force them one girl to let me buy her a coffee, and another one to accept 75 UAH for her trip back to her city.
Originally Posted by SFNative [View Original Post]
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11-21-20 23:56 #157
Posts: 332Just go along with it.
After her "is it a problem?" message, you should have just agreed to meet her for lunch where she wanted and then gone to McDonald's for lunch. While biting into your DOuble McCheese, you would have started to get her desperate and then angry messages.
Originally Posted by ShawMan74 [View Original Post]
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11-21-20 23:34 #156
Posts: 332So, everyone?
"Professional or otherwise". So, every man who is not in a relationship and 100% faithful?
Originally Posted by Riina [View Original Post]
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06-02-20 05:30 #155
Posts: 1222Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
When the virus was first recognized by a doctor in Wuhan they silenced him. Their explanation was that he was unnecessarily creating panic, thinking or just hoping he was wrong and it would go away. He was right, they were wrong.
It took off and spread outside China.
From there it came down to how different countries dealt with what was a seriously contagious pandemic. Some, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany and Thailand to mention some recognized the danger and took measures to contain it, some didn't until it was too late the UK, and the US being among those that delayed and are now paying a high price in lives lost.
To blame China for how it started and why it wasn't contained is justified. To blame China for the failures of other countries to take it seriously is not justified. They had choices and made the wrong ones.
Let's be real. The current China bashing is mostly political particularly where there are pending elections.
Finding an enemy to fear is tried and tested from the Jews in Hitler's Germany to disease invested hoards of rapist immigrants in Trump's Americas. Sadly it works. Too many want to point the finger rather than look in the mirror.
On China's growing influence, it's real. One can argue the merits of accepting their aid but there will be consequences when payment comes due.
Trying to find countries to visit which are not in one way or another not already under this influence is going to get harder and harder.
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06-01-20 17:11 #154
Posts: 5447Originally Posted by NattyBumpo [View Original Post]
BTW, you are welcome to visit the American Politics room any time to grandly refute anything I've written that you seem to think is not based on fact.
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06-01-20 17:09 #153
Posts: 3040Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by EihTooms [View Original Post]