Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[PedroMorales]

Prague's beauty is because the Wehrmacht did not destroy it in 1945. Prague has always been at the heart of Western / Central Europe. Lower Bohemia is where the Wars of the Reformation were fight, with 33% fatalities.

Prague has recently been colonized by flotsam, Americans in the main, pricing Czechs out of the market. It is a major centre of off kinds of shtt.

The 1914-45 European Civil War is over. It is time for the USA to pack up and fuck off back home to continue their manifest destiny of slaughtering the Natives and locking up Blacks.

Russia will bring Clown Zelensky and his Azov death squads to heel.

So, when the Soviet Union (aided by Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria) removed the Dubcek government in 1968, it was essentially an internal matter between Warsaw Pact countries. Seen in a Cold War context (and with the US involved in Vietnam) how likely was it that NATO would intervene? Answer, not very.

Fast forward to today: the USSR and Warsaw Pact are defunct, the Czech Republic is firmly ensconced in the bosom of the West AND is now a member of NATO. Therefore, in looking at the totality of historical events, I would argue that Czech happiness is a direct result of no longer being under the Soviet yoke, or being chained by the Warsaw Pact, and being able to freely run their own country.

Also, given what we're now seeing in Ukraine, I'm thinking that Czech happiness is even more enhanced by the security they feel under the NATO umbrella. I wonder if anyone has done a recent opinion poll (among Czechs) re favorable vs unfavorable sentiment toward NATO? I'd love to see the results.

[Neurosynth]

Nuclear weapons changed everything. The game theory part is difficult enough, but the assumption of rational actors is itself irrational.

Nobody posting here knows what Putin's health is like. He might be going mad. And if he is, no amount of history will matter. He gets a nuclear holocaust if he wants one. We are not in control.

But if we do survive, I hope we will finally realize nukes have to be negotiated down and then eliminated. That will be harder than ever, now that the world has seen how third rate the Russian army is.

[Jmsuttr]

It was interesting and tragic to see what Russification has brought to Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine.

I read further on the author's views on challenging Russia to break Putin's continue cycle of scaling up conflict. I have a couple issues with his views. First, the author's comparison to Nazi Germany is fallacious. The Russian military in 2022 is not as effective as Nazi Germany was relative to 1939. Second, NATO has always pursued a policy of containment and avoiding direct conflict. The policy worked until the corrupt and oppressive Soviet system crumbled from its own ineffectiveness.

One might say the invasion of the Ukraine is a brazen move. We however had Soviet violent invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia. NATO stood by and let the Soviets bully and dominate their neighbors. Unfortunately, I don't think the United States and NATO can be the policemen of the world. It also appears China is not interested in working with the Western alliance in preserving global peace.

Since the Twitter user I linked to is a historian, it's not surprising he uses historical comparisons. But, as the saying goes about history rhyming but not repeating, there will always be elements that don't fully match.

It's my sense that the author views appeasement as something to be avoided because it will only feed the beast (as with WW-II and Hitler). We don't know how Putin will respond, but we know he views the West as weak and therefore anything less than a strong response is likely to fail. Lots of room for debate, that's for sure, but that's the gist of the author's argument.

You're certainly correct about 1939 German forces vs Russian forces now. Although it seems 2022 Russia had a high estimate of their own capabilities, especially in comparison to their low estimate of Ukraine's. Putin obviously didn't have an accurate and objective assessment, or things would have been done differently. He's had a reality check now, but he clearly believed in Russia's overwhelming military superiority. Hitler made a similar miscalculation when he launched Operation Barbarossa.

About Hungary and Czechoslovakia, both were charter members of the Warsaw Pact. This was in the 1950's and 60's. So, in a Cold War context, Soviet control and suppression of their satellite states, while being publicly and diplomatically condemned, would also have been viewed as internal to the Soviet Bloc. USSR-controlled territory was theirs to command and the West wasn't going to change that.

That's a far cry from today's situation. The USSR has dissolved and former Soviet Bloc countries have mostly gone their own way. Putin is now pursuing an expansionary campaign in a way the Cold War Soviets were not. At least one facet of his scheme appears to be a partial reconstruction of the Soviet era sphere of control, except now using the rationale of uniting ethnic Russians in a New (and Greater) Russia. Both Hungary and the Czech Republic are now NATO members and I doubt either country wants to turn back the clock. I'm not sure mid-20th Century Cold War circumstances are directly analogous here. Again, those tricky historical parallels may not fully apply.

One further problem with the Ukraine situation is that (IMO) it's a mistake to think Putin won't use any victory, or concessions, as license to pursue future aggressive expansions. Why would he hesitate to declare "de-Nazification" campaigns in the Baltics or elsewhere? And Greater Russia surely can't be denied a land corridor to Kaliningrad, right?

That's why the Twitter author takes a strong stand against appeasement. And, after considering the pros and cons of the matter, I tend to agree. How that plays out in a practical sense remains to be seen. But I don't see any indications that Putin will voluntarily stop.

[Jmsuttr]

The Czech&Slovak people didn't resist, Dubceck didn't ask Nato to intervene, Nato didn't intervene.

Now in March 2022 https://www.praguemorning.cz/world-happiness-report-.

2022/ text=Share%20 via%3 A,of%20 Happiness%20 on%20 March%2020.

So, when the Soviet Union (aided by Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria) removed the Dubcek government in 1968, it was essentially an internal matter between Warsaw Pact countries. Seen in a Cold War context (and with the US involved in Vietnam) how likely was it that NATO would intervene? Answer, not very.

Fast forward to today: the USSR and Warsaw Pact are defunct, the Czech Republic is firmly ensconced in the bosom of the West AND is now a member of NATO. Therefore, in looking at the totality of historical events, I would argue that Czech happiness is a direct result of no longer being under the Soviet yoke, or being chained by the Warsaw Pact, and being able to freely run their own country.

Also, given what we're now seeing in Ukraine, I'm thinking that Czech happiness is even more enhanced by the security they feel under the NATO umbrella. I wonder if anyone has done a recent opinion poll (among Czechs) re favorable vs unfavorable sentiment toward NATO? I'd love to see the results.

[Jojosun]

The Warsaw pact countries led by The Evil Empire invaded Czechoslovakia in August 1968,occupied it for few months, set up a puppet government, then withdrew their armies.

The rest is now history, But how does the Czech Republic now stand in world rankings?

'The Czech Republic Among the 20 Happiest Countries In The World'. https://www.praguemorning.cz/the-cze...-in-the-world/.

https://kafkadesk.org/2019/10/02/cze...es-for-expats/

The Czech&Slovak people didn't resist, Dubceck didn't ask Nato to intervene, Nato didn't intervene.

Now in March 2022 https://www.praguemorning.cz/world-happiness-report-.

2022/ text=Share%20 via%3 A,of%20 Happiness%20 on%20 March%2020.

[WyattEarp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkaza...03672019513345

A bit long, but worth a read, IMO. The author makes the point that Russia's mismanagement of areas it's controlled, such as Crimea and Donbass, has had a negative effect on pro-Russia attitudes.

Those who have lived in Ukraine can validate, or refute, from their personal knowledge. It's beyond my experience, but it does make for an interesting hypothesis as to why cities like Kharkiv are strongly resisting, rather than welcoming Russia.

It was interesting and tragic to see what Russification has brought to Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine.

I read further on the author's views on challenging Russia to break Putin's continue cycle of scaling up conflict. I have a couple issues with his views. First, the author's comparison to Nazi Germany is fallacious. The Russian military in 2022 is not as effective as Nazi Germany was relative to 1939. Second, NATO has always pursued a policy of containment and avoiding direct conflict. The policy worked until the corrupt and oppressive Soviet system crumbled from its own ineffectiveness.

One might say the invasion of the Ukraine is a brazen move. We however had Soviet violent invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia. NATO stood by and let the Soviets bully and dominate their neighbors. Unfortunately, I don't think the United States and NATO can be the policemen of the world. It also appears China is not interested in working with the Western alliance in preserving global peace.

[Mojo Bandit]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkaza...03672019513345

A bit long, but worth a read, IMO. The author makes the point that Russia's mismanagement of areas it's controlled, such as Crimea and Donbass, has had a negative effect on pro-Russia attitudes.

Those who have lived in Ukraine can validate, or refute, from their personal knowledge. It's beyond my experience, but it does make for an interesting hypothesis as to why cities like Kharkiv are strongly resisting, rather than welcoming Russia.

Just want to say thanks again. The links you post like the one in this post have some real insight. I remember reading after the annexing of Crimea how Russian judges replaced Ukrainian judges in the court and Ukranians began being stripped of their businesses and property by a system of kleptocracy. Which means Putin was a war criminal even before he invaded Ukraine.

https://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/putin...and-in-crimea/

https://khpg.org/en/1608809377

[Jmsuttr]

Russia supplies the world with fertilizer for their crops they have sanctioned the US to not receive any until at least after December, the only thing that is crippling is this administration.

No single sanction, by or against Russia, is likely to be the definitive and final blow. I'm not a farmer but it won't surprise me if they figure out alternatives, even if those are significantly more expensive.

What matters is the totality of the sanctions regime and which side can hold out longer. Russia is getting some assistance from China, although the Chinese are walking a tightrope and I've read mixed reports of their helpfulness. A few other countries haven't completely cut off Russia but nobody (including China) wants to risk getting caught up in the West's anti-Russia sanctions campaign.

What I don't think gets enough attention is the extraordinary number of private companies that have abandoned Russia, or are refusing to do business with it. How long will Russian planes be able to fly domestically without support and maintenance from Boeing and Airbus? I recently read that one Russian aviation official was fired after he let it slip that China was refusing to supply aircraft parts. But the point is that there are literally hundreds and thousands of variables, with each sanction triggering attempts to evade. It's literally a "Death of a Thousand Cuts" strategy by each side.

Hard, if not impossible, to make a prediction, IMO. My gut feeling, and that's all it is, is that Russia is more isolated and therefore more vulnerable. But sanctions aren't the whole story because, the more pressure Putin feels, the more dangerous he could become.

[Jmsuttr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkaza...03672019513345

A bit long, but worth a read, IMO. The author makes the point that Russia's mismanagement of areas it's controlled, such as Crimea and Donbass, has had a negative effect on pro-Russia attitudes.

Those who have lived in Ukraine can validate, or refute, from their personal knowledge. It's beyond my experience, but it does make for an interesting hypothesis as to why cities like Kharkiv are strongly resisting, rather than welcoming Russia.

[Jmsuttr]

I total not agree.

I'm still in Ukraine running supplies from west to central Ukrain.

Stayed in Central ukraine 150 Km west of Dnipro until 7 days ago, had to move more west due to the family.

But I'm still running supplies back and forth, and I not seen any negativity against me, more on the checkpost they like WTF why you still here.

Most people I speak with also understand why Nato just not can't close the sky, but the weapons that's coming in are helping.

Those who say this is a loosing battle have no clue about what's going on here on the ground, I don't say Ukraine will win yet, but they dint loose any SET yet if we can use tennis terms.

After reading some expressions of concern about possible anti-foreigner sentiment, I thought it was worth pointing out how extreme stress can affect people. My hope was to promote a level of patience and understanding for anyone who might have a negative encounter.

I'm very glad to hear about your positive experiences and I fervently hope and pray for your continued safety. You didn't mention your country of origin but, from your writing style (please correct me if I'm wrong) I'm guessing it's not the US or UK, which is one of the variable factors I discussed in my post. You also mentioned two other things: family and the fact that you're helping out by transporting supplies. I'm guessing that people with significant ties to Ukraine, like family connections, speaking the language, residing in the country, helping in the war effort (and similar), are going to be viewed differently. Again, I'm happy to hear about your positive experience. Long may it continue!

BTW, I completely agree with your assessment of Putin's non-progress. This is a war of attrition and the longer Ukraine holds out (with NATO's help) the more the pressure on Putin mounts. I have no crystal ball for the future, but what's clear thus far is that Russia's initial plan has failed and Russia has become a pariah state.

[Neurosynth]

So I went back to reread HulaHoop's supposed posts from Kyiv. Here are some things I noticed.

He first started posting (other than the single post a year ago) on 2/25. On that very first day he started to allege that Ukrainians hate foreigners.

He uses the Russian version "Kiev" rather than the Ukrainian version "Kyiv". (But that may just be an age thing I suppose.).

He emphasizes that he and his friends are all white more than once.

He reports Russian tanks on the streets of Kiev. Has that happened yet, let alone on 2/25?

In virtually every post he says the locals hate foreigners because their home countries have not come to the aid of Ukraine.

On 3/3 he says "I've never been in a place that's racist to white people before. ".

On 3/4 he shifts from warning other mongers to warning would be volunteers, with a dose of defeatism: "To any foreign volunteer: do not believe the Ukrainian propaganda! The military situation in Ukraine is dire, the media will have you think that Ukraine is winning. That is not the case whatsoever! Please be careful. ".

Is this beyond a reasonable doubt evidence? No. But I’ve noted that today HulaHoop has remained logged in for hours at a time. That, and all of the above, sounds more like a troll than a guy in his 60’s thinking that now was the time to go fishing in Ukraine. With a bunch of friends who agreed no less.

[Neurosynth]

…
HulaHoops has also been saying the Ukrainians now hate foreigners…

Which is exactly the kind of thing a Russian troll would say.

[Sorbonne]

Who knows what the future will hold. What we know for sure is that Ukraine will be a very different place when this is over.

I don't know how my post below ended up in the other "Stupid Shit" thread:

HulaHoops has also been saying the Ukrainians now hate foreigners. That is a grave concern, if we ever return.

Even during the pandemic I started feeling that people have not been as friendly as they were before the pandemic in this provincial city I was living in, which has been bombarded by now.

I did hear from the former freebee girl. She's still in Kyiv and is saying that now is not time to get divorced as she doesn't have money. So she has to stay in Ukraine, as her husband is not allowed to leave the country.

It may be even safe to say party is over for us in Ukraine. On the other hand, the condition may be set for us in Russia if it goes back to the Soviet time. Who knows?

[WyattEarp]

Those who say this is a loosing battle have no clue about what's going on here on the ground, I don't say Ukraine will win yet, but they dint loose any SET yet if we can use tennis terms.

Sadly, we can't go back to love-love. I don't think Putin knows what this word means.

[Neurosynth]

HulaHoops is a fraud. The account was created with a single "what's up?" post a year ago and then nothing until a string of posts about being in Ukraine. Whether this was a sleeper account created by Russian paid trolls is a matter for speculation. It might just be an individual troll in need of attention.

But his attempt to vilify the people of Ukraine, people who are supposedly keeping him alive even as the Russians are trying to kill him, is highly suspect at best.

Let's not give this guy what he wants.