Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Golfinho]

Israel pointing out the right of return isn't meaningful beyond exactly what it is.
That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.

The Right of Exclusion is exactly what it is, the prerogative of a supremacist ethno-religious apartheid state. Fine by them -- so long as they can get away with it. This state has pivoted to Ukraine by using the sad situation as an opportunity to lure away the Ukiejew population, while the Ukiechristians can remain to get slaughtered.

Now that you've been shifted back to realities, any further of your commentary on this subject would be telling, telling that you've internalized the commands of your oppressors.

[Golfinho]

Since this is an anonymous fuckboard, nothing posted here has any real-world effect, none whatsoever. In stark contrast, Russia's belief in its internal propaganda, such as the mistaken idea they would be greeted just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?

The reality of a unipolar world -- won't that be nice. Then you'll get to experience the real life as a be -- globohomo rule, paying girls everywhere in dollars / euros, Americanized women from Moscow, Kiev, everywhere. See how that works?

We don't care about Putin, but if you need a bogeyman for your projections, that's understandable.

[Jmsuttr]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...729679872.html

"Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: Logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken."

"Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow: 200,000 people are at risk of losing jobs in Moscow alone."

"Andrei Belousov, deputy prime minister (this one wasn't reported in the West, but it's crucial): Economic stimulus to fight the crisis without risking further inflation is limited to 7-8 trln rubles and the government has already reached this limit."

When analyzing statements made by govt officials, one way to look at them is that, if they're announcing good news, they're often prone to overstate the positives. And, if bad news, they're often prone to minimize negatives. It's not always the case, but it's in line with human nature in general and also with the natural desire to not upset their superiors. Of course, in this case it's also possible they might be trying to front-run bad news because they want to prepare people for what's coming.

No matter how you slice it, whether the bad shit is already hitting the fan, or whether even more serious shit is just about to hit the fan, these senior officials are painting a bleak picture of the Russian economy.

Oh, and please notice what's conspicuously absent from all of the comments -- any mention of the role of China as even a partial answer to the problems posed by sanctions.

[GDreams]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

What has been shown in this war is that size doesn't matter. Russian military is dominated by armour. Its clear that the armour wasn't successful against Kiev. When you have to meet your enemy on foot in their territory you need significantly larger numbers than the defender as well as good logistic support.

The Russian air force has not even been able to establish air superiority. The Russian military is using dated technology that does not stand up to drones and hand held anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry. In the age of the smart phone there is not a lot of enthusiasm for volunteering to be a grunt that gets their limbs blown off. Not good selfie material hence the low moral.

If the west keeps up sufficient supply of modern weapons then Russia will not be able to hold ground taken. If the west gets bored and tapers its supply Russia will probably grind itself to military victory at the cost of much of its front line armour and aircraft and in 3-4 years the biggest market for its gas gone. Europe (read Germany) has finally worked out that financially supporting Russia is not in their long term interests.

[Neurosynth]

You haven't been paying attention. The Zionist state extended offer to Ukrainians to relocate to its territories, that is Jewish Ukrainians only. Official Zionist vocabulary.

Israel pointing out the right of return isn't meaningful beyond exactly what it is.

That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.

[Jmsuttr]

We cannot get any agreement on what is actually happening from Golfinho or Pedro. They are choosing to reiterate Russian media which is now essentially controlled by the government. Doesn't matter that we in the West have no restrictions on speech and we have dissent even on the Ukraine war.

Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.

My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.

I'm indifferent to the bilge posted by Golfy and Pedrito (or is that perrito?) because their fantasy-based, propaganda-centric musings have no chance when stacked up against reality, facts, and evidence. My main reason for posting is mostly because it's a rollicking exercise to pop their silly bubbles and illustrate just how delusional they are. And it's also my hope that I can perhaps share a few articles and points of information that others in the forum might not yet have seen.

I'm sure you've noticed that, when faced with objective facts such as the sinking of the Moskva, or the rubbleization of the ruble, G & P will shuck and jive, change the subject, or whatever else they can think of to avoid the reality that's slapping them in the face and skewering their BS.

As for how things will play out, that obviously depends on a multitude of variables, some that we know but also others that will only surface over time. But I think it's safe to say that just about every conceivable (and reasonably believable) future scenario will leave Russia worse off than it was before Putin chose to invade. And, by definition, any endpoint in which one has (going back to a chess analogy) lost both material and position cannot be credibly described as a win. That's why I'm confident in my repeated assertion that Russia has already lost. Over time we'll ascertain the magnitude, but the loss itself is a fait accompli.

It's important to note, however, that a loss by Russia doesn't automatically mean a win for Ukraine. There are several plausible lose-lose scenarios so everything will depend on the response of Ukrainians themselves and those countries who step up in support. To that latter point, I'm very heartened by the role being played by some of the less prominent European countries, like Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltics. They're showing remarkable leadership and in many ways shaming their more prominent neighbors into doing more.

So, while it's hard to say if this is the beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning, I'm encouraged by how the game is progressing to this point.

[Jmsuttr]

The excuse it was a feint was an illustration of propaganda. You bought the feint. See how that works.

This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.

Since this is an anonymous fuckboard, nothing posted here has any real-world effect, none whatsoever. In stark contrast, Russia's belief in its internal propaganda, such as the mistaken idea they would be greeted as liberators in Ukraine, has had the effect of tens of thousands of Russian pawns being unceremoniously swept off the board. Meanwhile, closer to the Black King, a number of bishops and knights have also been removed without Ukrainians needing to set one foot on Russian soil. See how real life works?

And no propaganda, feint, or other device is going to bring back those lost pieces. Neither will they raise the Moskva from its well-deserved place in Davey Jones' Locker. Neither will they restore Russia's lost geopolitical status. Those are irretrievably gone, all of them sacrificed on the altar of Putin's ubermensch fantasy, fed by the Kremlin's non-stop propaganda machine.

Afghanistan? Vietnam? Now you're just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?

[WyattEarp]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

What would constitute a Russian "win" and what would be a considered a "loss"? A month ago, we were thinking Russia would run over Kiev and topple the Zelensky government.

Simply initiating destruction is not considered a victory in modern war thinking.

A likely outcome is that Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory indefinitely. Is that a "win" if the West rebuilds the rest of the Ukraine better than before and invites them into the European Union? Is it a "win" if Finland and Sweden join NATO?

In most wars, the tragic loss of life and destruction does not usually lead to a better situation. Life will suck for Eastern Ukrainians. However, the Ukraine will emerge as a sovereign nation with a stronger identity.

[Golfinho]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

The Russians have proclaimed victory in Mariupol more times than Hitler did at Stalingrad. Appears inevitable, but what foreign surprises await when all the rats are finally flushed out.

[Golfinho]

That's like the old PeeWee Herman schtick where he says "I meant to do that" after a huge fall. There's not a single credible military strategist or analyst who believes that, not even in places like Hungary and Serbia that support Russia. What kind of a feint costs thousands of soldiers' lives and hundreds of pieces of irreplaceable equipment? And I say irreplaceable because Russia is having to close military factories that produce tanks and missiles due to lack of components. Thank you Western sanctions!

But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.

As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.

The excuse it was a feint was an illustration of propaganda. You bought the feint. See how that works.

This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.

[WyattEarp]

..........And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.

If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!

We cannot get any agreement on what is actually happening from Golfinho or Pedro. They are choosing to reiterate Russian media which is now essentially controlled by the government. Doesn't matter that we in the West have no restrictions on speech and we have dissent even on the Ukraine war.

Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.

My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.

[Cons68]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

I think Putin knows, on a "big picture" level, how bad things are going. He's never been stupid, and I don't subscribe to the irrational or delusional theory. That's because, if he was truly in such a state, that would be seen as mental weakness and, even to those most loyal, unfitness to lead and a danger to Russia.

Consider this: If Putin was irrational (and thought he was winning), it's more likely he would pull forces from Eastern Ukraine to move against Kyiv, rather than the reverse. If he could have taken Kyiv, and killed or captured Zelensky (or caused him to flee), he could have declared victory no matter what happened in the rest of the country. Kyiv and "denazification" success were the big prizes.

That tells me he's rational enough to recognize that Kyiv is out of reach. So now he's desperately trying to find something he can spin as a victory, especially by May 9th, and he's doubling down in the hope that something goes his way. About Putin's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, he has no choice but to put on a brave face, in the same way that he continues to show false bravado with threats against Sweden, Finland, etc. He's backed himself into a corner, with respect to both internal and external audiences, and currently has no off-ramp or exit.

Putin's biggest problem, and blind spot, is that he is almost certainly in the dark as to how bad things are on a granular level. He won't know, nor will anyone likely have the balls to tell him, how badly corruption has hollowed out his armed forces or how poorly his officers, soldiers, and equipment are performing. And the problem with doubling down is that, if all you have are shitty cards, you can keep playing them but still won't have a winning hand.

Switching to your favorite sports analogy, Putin's in the bottom of the 9th inning, or in extra time of a football match, or at the two-minute warning of an American football game. Options are few, and getting fewer, and time's running short. I can't say I have any great insight as to how things will play out, but here's an article with a few interesting observations and thoughts.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time...ail-mary-pass/

[Beijing4987]

Up to 10 available.

[Jmsuttr]

Propaganda Street runs both ways. The convoy parked outside Kiev was intended as a feint to keep Ukie troops fixed in place and not moved to the Donbas, you know, military strategy. And now The Comedien has his Ukronazis in Mariupol on no surrender notice: to keep the Z Force in place? Or in hopes they're eliminated and along with them nazism? Time will tell.

That's like the old PeeWee Herman schtick where he says "I meant to do that" after a huge fall. There's not a single credible military strategist or analyst who believes that, not even in places like Hungary and Serbia that support Russia. What kind of a feint costs thousands of soldiers' lives and hundreds of pieces of irreplaceable equipment? And I say irreplaceable because Russia is having to close military factories that produce tanks and missiles due to lack of components. Thank you Western sanctions!

But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.

As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.

If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!

[Golfinho]

That you conform closely to the official Kremlin vocabulary is telling.

And what does "(the Christian ones)" mean here? Time to blame the Jews is it? The Jewish Nazis? You think Zelenskyy is a Jewish Nazi?

You haven't been paying attention. The Zionist state extended offer to Ukrainians to relocate to its territories, that is Jewish Ukrainians only. Official Zionist vocabulary.