Thread: Stupid Shit in Kyiv
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04-20-22 11:20 #539
Posts: 2374Originally Posted by Neurosynth [View Original Post]
Now that you've been shifted back to realities, any further of your commentary on this subject would be telling, telling that you've internalized the commands of your oppressors.
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04-20-22 09:31 #538
Posts: 2374Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
We don't care about Putin, but if you need a bogeyman for your projections, that's understandable.
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04-20-22 04:26 #537
Posts: 516Senior Russian officials comment on sanctions
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...729679872.html
"Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: Logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken."
"Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow: 200,000 people are at risk of losing jobs in Moscow alone."
"Andrei Belousov, deputy prime minister (this one wasn't reported in the West, but it's crucial): Economic stimulus to fight the crisis without risking further inflation is limited to 7-8 trln rubles and the government has already reached this limit."
When analyzing statements made by govt officials, one way to look at them is that, if they're announcing good news, they're often prone to overstate the positives. And, if bad news, they're often prone to minimize negatives. It's not always the case, but it's in line with human nature in general and also with the natural desire to not upset their superiors. Of course, in this case it's also possible they might be trying to front-run bad news because they want to prepare people for what's coming.
No matter how you slice it, whether the bad shit is already hitting the fan, or whether even more serious shit is just about to hit the fan, these senior officials are painting a bleak picture of the Russian economy.
Oh, and please notice what's conspicuously absent from all of the comments -- any mention of the role of China as even a partial answer to the problems posed by sanctions.
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04-20-22 03:54 #536
Posts: 689Originally Posted by Cons68 [View Original Post]
The Russian air force has not even been able to establish air superiority. The Russian military is using dated technology that does not stand up to drones and hand held anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry. In the age of the smart phone there is not a lot of enthusiasm for volunteering to be a grunt that gets their limbs blown off. Not good selfie material hence the low moral.
If the west keeps up sufficient supply of modern weapons then Russia will not be able to hold ground taken. If the west gets bored and tapers its supply Russia will probably grind itself to military victory at the cost of much of its front line armour and aircraft and in 3-4 years the biggest market for its gas gone. Europe (read Germany) has finally worked out that financially supporting Russia is not in their long term interests.
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04-20-22 03:52 #535
Posts: 1159Originally Posted by Golfinho [View Original Post]
That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.
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04-20-22 00:28 #534
Posts: 516Reality always wins out
Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
I'm sure you've noticed that, when faced with objective facts such as the sinking of the Moskva, or the rubbleization of the ruble, G & P will shuck and jive, change the subject, or whatever else they can think of to avoid the reality that's slapping them in the face and skewering their BS.
As for how things will play out, that obviously depends on a multitude of variables, some that we know but also others that will only surface over time. But I think it's safe to say that just about every conceivable (and reasonably believable) future scenario will leave Russia worse off than it was before Putin chose to invade. And, by definition, any endpoint in which one has (going back to a chess analogy) lost both material and position cannot be credibly described as a win. That's why I'm confident in my repeated assertion that Russia has already lost. Over time we'll ascertain the magnitude, but the loss itself is a fait accompli.
It's important to note, however, that a loss by Russia doesn't automatically mean a win for Ukraine. There are several plausible lose-lose scenarios so everything will depend on the response of Ukrainians themselves and those countries who step up in support. To that latter point, I'm very heartened by the role being played by some of the less prominent European countries, like Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltics. They're showing remarkable leadership and in many ways shaming their more prominent neighbors into doing more.
So, while it's hard to say if this is the beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning, I'm encouraged by how the game is progressing to this point.
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04-19-22 23:14 #533
Posts: 516The fact you spout propaganda so fluently speaks volumes
Originally Posted by Golfinho [View Original Post]
And no propaganda, feint, or other device is going to bring back those lost pieces. Neither will they raise the Moskva from its well-deserved place in Davey Jones' Locker. Neither will they restore Russia's lost geopolitical status. Those are irretrievably gone, all of them sacrificed on the altar of Putin's ubermensch fantasy, fed by the Kremlin's non-stop propaganda machine.
Afghanistan? Vietnam? Now you're just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?
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04-19-22 18:56 #532
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Cons68 [View Original Post]
Simply initiating destruction is not considered a victory in modern war thinking.
A likely outcome is that Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory indefinitely. Is that a "win" if the West rebuilds the rest of the Ukraine better than before and invites them into the European Union? Is it a "win" if Finland and Sweden join NATO?
In most wars, the tragic loss of life and destruction does not usually lead to a better situation. Life will suck for Eastern Ukrainians. However, the Ukraine will emerge as a sovereign nation with a stronger identity.
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04-19-22 18:53 #531
Posts: 2374Originally Posted by Cons68 [View Original Post]
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04-19-22 18:48 #530
Posts: 2374Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.
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04-19-22 18:41 #529
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.
My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.
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04-19-22 18:20 #528
Posts: 1192That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.
That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.
Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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04-19-22 17:18 #527
Posts: 686For sale on eBay. Located in Beijing
Up to 10 available.
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04-19-22 17:01 #526
Posts: 516The excuse it was a feint is laughable
Originally Posted by Golfinho [View Original Post]
But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.
As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.
If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!
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04-19-22 12:23 #525
Posts: 2374Originally Posted by Neurosynth [View Original Post]