Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

More seriously, I am not as happy as you are. My development team was mostly based in Ukraine, and while so far they are all more or less good. And some of them even outside fighting the CyberArmy, the toll is really heavy.

Everything posted in this forum can be appropriately characterized as "comments from the peanut gallery," and thoroughly inconsequential. But the real lives in Ukraine being disrupted, destroyed, and untimely ended, that's what truly matters.

Every analyst and ivory tower pundit who doesn't acknowledge the price being paid by real people isn't worth reading or listening to.

Also, anything I might post that might seem "happy" is only so to the extent that I will be glad to see the just consequences of brutality and aggression visited upon the heads of the aggressors and brutalizers. I would have been truly happy had Ukraine not been invaded.

[Jmsuttr]

The reality of a unipolar world -- won't that be nice. Then you'll get to experience the real life as a be -- globohomo rule, paying girls everywhere in dollars / euros, Americanized women from Moscow, Kiev, everywhere. See how that works?

We don't care about Putin, but if you need a bogeyman for your projections, that's understandable.

I personally don't give a fuck about unipolar vs multipolar. But I do care when butchers rise up and, using the pretexts that are always at hand, invade countries that posed no real threat. And please spare us the mindless repetition of the gas that Putin blows out his ass. There is no objective, rational, analysis that supports the notion that Russia faced an existential threat. If you're looking for bogeymen, look no further than the ludicrous hysterics filling Russian media.

I've never been a defender of pre-Feb 24th Ukraine and I'm quite aware of a variety of sins they're likely guilty of. But nothing excuses Putin's war of choice. And nothing excuses the war crimes about which evidence (much of it gathered by third-parties) mounts daily.

The term "bogeyman" implies that the fear, blame, and oppobrium is misplaced. In stark contrast, and based on overwhelming factual evidence, Putin fully deserves his condemnation. All that remains is for a tipping point to be reached within Russia itself. It's instructive to remember that Mussolini was adored and revered, until the moment arrived when he wasn't. May that moment arrive for Putin as quickly as possible.

BTW, even if (when, IMO) Putin is dethroned, the most likely scenario is that his replacement will come from the current crop of Russian elites. That person will blame Putin for everything, and will promise reforms, most of which will be of the token variety if they happen at all. But Russia will continue, most probably along the customary kleptocratic lines, with the only difference being the demonization of Putin.

And demonization is exactly what will happen. Stalin was a butcher but he wasn't a loser. Russian pride can tolerate butchery as long as it's accompanied by victory. What they can't tolerate is a loser, and that's exactly the label they'll stick on poor LilliPutin. Their own pride and self-esteem will demand that they expunge the memory of Putin from the collective consciousness. It will be glorious to witness!

Oh, and China will continue to be a major player, so you can still have you multipolar wet dreams, no worries. But Russia may have cause to worry about China as Comrade Xi looks to take advantage of the power vacuum Putin's downfall will cause. Does anyone remember the Chinese name for Vladivostok? It might be useful to brush up on little factoids like that.

[Cons68]

You evil imperialist dog!

The Moskva has not been sunk! It has been upgraded with submarine warfare capabilities, a technology you can only dream of.

More seriously, I am not as happy as you are. My development team was mostly based in Ukraine, and while so far they are all more or less good. And some of them even outside fighting the CyberArmy, the toll is really heavy.

I'm sure you've noticed that, when faced with objective facts such as the sinking of the Moskva, or the rubbleization of the ruble, G & P will shuck and jive, change the subject, or whatever else they can think of to avoid the reality that's slapping them in the face and skewering their BS.

[Cons68]

It is only 50 days, that I agree is like 45 more than most pundits expected.

However Ukraine is a small nation, they can not take the losses the same way Russians do, forget armor, I am talking about loss of human life.

Compromise will happen most likely, but as I said, it is likely that this will damage Russian more in the medium / long term.

Let see.

What has been shown in this war is that size doesn't matter. Russian military is dominated by armour. Its clear that the armour wasn't successful against Kiev. When you have to meet your enemy on foot in their territory you need significantly larger numbers than the defender as well as good logistic support.

The Russian air force has not even been able to establish air superiority. The Russian military is using dated technology that does not stand up to drones and hand held anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry. In the age of the smart phone there is not a lot of enthusiasm for volunteering to be a grunt that gets their limbs blown off. Not good selfie material hence the low moral.

If the west keeps up sufficient supply of modern weapons then Russia will not be able to hold ground taken. If the west gets bored and tapers its supply Russia will probably grind itself to military victory at the cost of much of its front line armour and aircraft and in 3-4 years the biggest market for its gas gone. Europe (read Germany) has finally worked out that financially supporting Russia is not in their long term interests.

[Cons68]

That is exactly why I used "quotes".

Those of us old enough to remember the "Mission accomplished" banner. You know.

And yes, the scenario you paint, an Eastern Ukraine sinking in poverty and a Western Ukraine quickly improving their standards of life is the "win" that Russia may not survive scenarios I was thinking of.

What would constitute a Russian "win" and what would be a considered a "loss"? A month ago, we were thinking Russia would run over Kiev and topple the Zelensky government.

Simply initiating destruction is not considered a victory in modern war thinking.

A likely outcome is that Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory indefinitely. Is that a "win" if the West rebuilds the rest of the Ukraine better than before and invites them into the European Union? Is it a "win" if Finland and Sweden join NATO?

In most wars, the tragic loss of life and destruction does not usually lead to a better situation. Life will suck for Eastern Ukrainians. However, the Ukraine will emerge as a sovereign nation with a stronger identity.

[Ringudor]

BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?

Maybe they are the same person, Russian bots are everywhere.

[Golfinho]

Israel pointing out the right of return isn't meaningful beyond exactly what it is.
That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.

The Right of Exclusion is exactly what it is, the prerogative of a supremacist ethno-religious apartheid state. Fine by them -- so long as they can get away with it. This state has pivoted to Ukraine by using the sad situation as an opportunity to lure away the Ukiejew population, while the Ukiechristians can remain to get slaughtered.

Now that you've been shifted back to realities, any further of your commentary on this subject would be telling, telling that you've internalized the commands of your oppressors.

[Golfinho]

Since this is an anonymous fuckboard, nothing posted here has any real-world effect, none whatsoever. In stark contrast, Russia's belief in its internal propaganda, such as the mistaken idea they would be greeted just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?

The reality of a unipolar world -- won't that be nice. Then you'll get to experience the real life as a be -- globohomo rule, paying girls everywhere in dollars / euros, Americanized women from Moscow, Kiev, everywhere. See how that works?

We don't care about Putin, but if you need a bogeyman for your projections, that's understandable.

[Jmsuttr]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...729679872.html

"Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank: Logistical blockade hurts even more than financial sanctions. Supply chains are broken."

"Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow: 200,000 people are at risk of losing jobs in Moscow alone."

"Andrei Belousov, deputy prime minister (this one wasn't reported in the West, but it's crucial): Economic stimulus to fight the crisis without risking further inflation is limited to 7-8 trln rubles and the government has already reached this limit."

When analyzing statements made by govt officials, one way to look at them is that, if they're announcing good news, they're often prone to overstate the positives. And, if bad news, they're often prone to minimize negatives. It's not always the case, but it's in line with human nature in general and also with the natural desire to not upset their superiors. Of course, in this case it's also possible they might be trying to front-run bad news because they want to prepare people for what's coming.

No matter how you slice it, whether the bad shit is already hitting the fan, or whether even more serious shit is just about to hit the fan, these senior officials are painting a bleak picture of the Russian economy.

Oh, and please notice what's conspicuously absent from all of the comments -- any mention of the role of China as even a partial answer to the problems posed by sanctions.

[GDreams]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

What has been shown in this war is that size doesn't matter. Russian military is dominated by armour. Its clear that the armour wasn't successful against Kiev. When you have to meet your enemy on foot in their territory you need significantly larger numbers than the defender as well as good logistic support.

The Russian air force has not even been able to establish air superiority. The Russian military is using dated technology that does not stand up to drones and hand held anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry. In the age of the smart phone there is not a lot of enthusiasm for volunteering to be a grunt that gets their limbs blown off. Not good selfie material hence the low moral.

If the west keeps up sufficient supply of modern weapons then Russia will not be able to hold ground taken. If the west gets bored and tapers its supply Russia will probably grind itself to military victory at the cost of much of its front line armour and aircraft and in 3-4 years the biggest market for its gas gone. Europe (read Germany) has finally worked out that financially supporting Russia is not in their long term interests.

[Neurosynth]

You haven't been paying attention. The Zionist state extended offer to Ukrainians to relocate to its territories, that is Jewish Ukrainians only. Official Zionist vocabulary.

Israel pointing out the right of return isn't meaningful beyond exactly what it is.

That you want to shift the paradigm away from Putin, and instead pivot to the Jews, is very telling indeed.

[Jmsuttr]

We cannot get any agreement on what is actually happening from Golfinho or Pedro. They are choosing to reiterate Russian media which is now essentially controlled by the government. Doesn't matter that we in the West have no restrictions on speech and we have dissent even on the Ukraine war.

Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.

My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.

I'm indifferent to the bilge posted by Golfy and Pedrito (or is that perrito?) because their fantasy-based, propaganda-centric musings have no chance when stacked up against reality, facts, and evidence. My main reason for posting is mostly because it's a rollicking exercise to pop their silly bubbles and illustrate just how delusional they are. And it's also my hope that I can perhaps share a few articles and points of information that others in the forum might not yet have seen.

I'm sure you've noticed that, when faced with objective facts such as the sinking of the Moskva, or the rubbleization of the ruble, G & P will shuck and jive, change the subject, or whatever else they can think of to avoid the reality that's slapping them in the face and skewering their BS.

As for how things will play out, that obviously depends on a multitude of variables, some that we know but also others that will only surface over time. But I think it's safe to say that just about every conceivable (and reasonably believable) future scenario will leave Russia worse off than it was before Putin chose to invade. And, by definition, any endpoint in which one has (going back to a chess analogy) lost both material and position cannot be credibly described as a win. That's why I'm confident in my repeated assertion that Russia has already lost. Over time we'll ascertain the magnitude, but the loss itself is a fait accompli.

It's important to note, however, that a loss by Russia doesn't automatically mean a win for Ukraine. There are several plausible lose-lose scenarios so everything will depend on the response of Ukrainians themselves and those countries who step up in support. To that latter point, I'm very heartened by the role being played by some of the less prominent European countries, like Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltics. They're showing remarkable leadership and in many ways shaming their more prominent neighbors into doing more.

So, while it's hard to say if this is the beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning, I'm encouraged by how the game is progressing to this point.

[Jmsuttr]

The excuse it was a feint was an illustration of propaganda. You bought the feint. See how that works.

This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.

Since this is an anonymous fuckboard, nothing posted here has any real-world effect, none whatsoever. In stark contrast, Russia's belief in its internal propaganda, such as the mistaken idea they would be greeted as liberators in Ukraine, has had the effect of tens of thousands of Russian pawns being unceremoniously swept off the board. Meanwhile, closer to the Black King, a number of bishops and knights have also been removed without Ukrainians needing to set one foot on Russian soil. See how real life works?

And no propaganda, feint, or other device is going to bring back those lost pieces. Neither will they raise the Moskva from its well-deserved place in Davey Jones' Locker. Neither will they restore Russia's lost geopolitical status. Those are irretrievably gone, all of them sacrificed on the altar of Putin's ubermensch fantasy, fed by the Kremlin's non-stop propaganda machine.

Afghanistan? Vietnam? Now you're just being stupid. There is no victory scenario for Russia. Zero, zip, nada. They've already lost and it's just a matter of time before that reality sets in. Real life is a b, ain't it? See how that works?

[WyattEarp]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

What would constitute a Russian "win" and what would be a considered a "loss"? A month ago, we were thinking Russia would run over Kiev and topple the Zelensky government.

Simply initiating destruction is not considered a victory in modern war thinking.

A likely outcome is that Russia occupies some Ukrainian territory indefinitely. Is that a "win" if the West rebuilds the rest of the Ukraine better than before and invites them into the European Union? Is it a "win" if Finland and Sweden join NATO?

In most wars, the tragic loss of life and destruction does not usually lead to a better situation. Life will suck for Eastern Ukrainians. However, the Ukraine will emerge as a sovereign nation with a stronger identity.

[Golfinho]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

The Russians have proclaimed victory in Mariupol more times than Hitler did at Stalingrad. Appears inevitable, but what foreign surprises await when all the rats are finally flushed out.