Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

Exactly, it makes no sense. We have created a monster in the Ukraine President. The CIA is promising him the world, mean while, economies are tanking. Great job Biden!!

I'm not defending either pre-invasion Ukraine, or the CIA. I'm simply stating a plain and unassailable fact.

The Russian army, acting solely on Putin's orders, marched into Ukraine on Feb 24th and proceeded to devastate entire cities, with no regard for civilian casualties.

If you want to characterize Zelensky and the CIA as demons, go right ahead. But Putin has demonstrated that he's Satan incarnate, and that he needs to be defeated, and hopefully destroyed.

Every time I see a post that tries to deny, or sidestep, Putin's exclusive agency and responsibility for the war, I will point out the factual error. Every time.

[Jmsuttr]

Who wants war, and we can safely say Russia started, true.

But no one is trying to stop it.

And, in response, Russia would destroy half the world, and NATO would proceed to destroy the other half.

There, no more war, we've solved it, right?

You sound like a child whining at their parents to make the thunder and lightning stop. It's understandable that a child doesn't know the difference between what's possible and what's not, because they think their parents can do anything.

So, what's your excuse? Please tell us who has the power to make the thunder and lightning stop?

Or, if you prefer, we could simply push the button that ends up decimating the world. Not to worry, if you live anywhere near a population center, you shouldn't feel much. Just a bright flash and it'll all be over. And, as a bonus, your silhouette will be emblazoned on the nearest wall.

But hey, the war will stop. In fact, ALL wars will be stopped. Happy days, right?

P. S. There are two things in the world that are universally hated. There are probably more, but for sure at least two. Mosquitoes are the first. Everybody hates them. The second are people who constantly whine and complain about things, but offer nothing constructive. In school, in the workplace, among acquaintances (and even family), those people are universally hated. So far, your posts in this forum have placed you firmly in that latter group.

[DramaFree11]

Who wants war, and we can safely say Russia started, true.

But no one is trying to stop it.

Exactly, it makes no sense. We have created a monster in the Ukraine President. The CIA is promising him the world, mean while, economies are tanking. Great job Biden!!

[Mike963]

Who wants war, and we can safely say Russia started, true.

But no one is trying to stop it.

I wonder what can possibly possess a grown-up to say something so monumentally stupid.

[Mike963]

If you read my first post, probably you would have got the point.

I am not bothered about who started the war or who is fighting.

War is bad for sure, and its extremely worse for the common people.

Now it comes to the question of NATO, Why didn't NATO support Ukraine directly, and we could have hoped optimisticaly, that would have stopped the war? Or by now reached a negotiation?

Then we might say, Ukraine is not a NATO member? Kuwait, Vietnam, S Korea to name a few none of them where. In reality if NATO wants to help, they can!

That is the point, there is business in war, more than saving people and ending war.

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...=1#post2703784

If Russia doesn't want to stop fighting the war, the only way the US could make them stop would require the use of force by the US military, or NATO, or both.

That would a) Play into Putin's hands by allowing him to frame the conflict as existential, with Russia's nationhood at stake, and; b) Exponentially raise the risk that nuclear weapons could be used.

Also, you're mistaken as to a fundamental fact. Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine, not the US and not American arms manufacturers. It was Putin, and he alone, who started the war. And, since he started it, the war will continue until Putin, or his successor, gives the order to stop.

Any questions?

[Mike963]

US fought more wars than any other country after WWII, I guess that is a fact.

The fact is I am not worried about who is at war, but the common people is who will suffer in the end.

Lot of us will debate on the ideologies.

All you've done is ignore all of Jmsuttr's points and concerns while repeating the same assertions all over again, but this time tacking on double exclamation marks at the end of each sentence. And you earn a demerit by adding the ludicrous claim that the US has been the only country involved in war since WW II. We should expect better, even in a hooker forum. Why don't you go back and try again? Wink.

[Mike963]

I didn't mention Russia, as its mentioned all over here.

I'm sure there are plenty of ways to look at the situation, including views from 10,000 feet that focus on which players (countries and companies) might benefit from, or be taking advantage of, the conflict.

But it's hard for me to concern myself with such issues while Ukrainians are being killed, captured, tortured, and their cities reduced to uninhabitable rubble.

When confronted with that in-your-face reality, there are only a very few questions at the top level of priority:

Q: Who bears primary responsibility for the conflict?

A: Russia.

Q: Who is the only party with the ability to unilaterally bring an end to the conflict?

A: Russia.

Q: How can the conflict be stopped?

A: By Russia deciding to stop, either by their own independent decision, or as a response to external and (or) internal pressures.

While other questions and issues may be valid and worth exploring, they must necessarily take a back seat to the primary issues listed above. I'm certainly open to debating which countries might secretly, or not so secretly, be hoping for Ukraine to fail (Serbia, Hungary, Germany, etc.), or which countries are giving Ukraine their full support (Poland, Baltics, etc.), or which countries (USA, France, Italy, etc.) might be slow-walking assistance because they see upsides to a protracted conflict.

I have no illusions about the fact that there are plenty of bad actors who could, and should, be named and shamed. But Job #1 is ending the war, full stop. And that will only happen if Russia has a change of mind (unlikely), or if a combination of battlefield defeats, attrition, and pressures from within and without, cause them to have that change of mind.

[Jmsuttr]

You'll appreciate the pun when you watch the short video included in the thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...657124352.html

[John Clayton]

...2. 1994: Budapest Memorandum...

Just to refresh people's memory, prior to 1994 Ukraine held over 1700 nuclear warheads on multiple missles, bombers, etc. They had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. They gave up these weapons in exchange for international treaty assurances, including (and principally) Russia, that guaranteed the integrity of Ukrainian borders. Russia is clearly the treaty breaker here; however, the US and the UK do bear some responsibility for not coming to their defense in 2014.

[Xpartan]

Turkey or Israel could mediate.

However, there is little reason to believe in any good faith from the Russian side since there is not one agreement standing they have respected with Ukraine. I think only a resounding defeat of Russia will be the end of this war, otherwise Russia will simply regroup and do the same again whilst lying in the faces of the International community.

Only way to curtail it's power to wean away the reliance on Russian resources, and ensure that long term, technologies like microchips are not exported to Russia.

Yep.

Russia has recognized Ukraine's borders AT LEAST 4 times in the last 30 years.

1. 1991: Russia recognizes Ukrainian independence.

2. 1994: Budapest Memorandum.

3. 1997: Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty.

4. 2010: Kharkiv Pact.

What else do they want to realize that Russia can't be trusted. Sign anything with them, and they'll use the break to regroup and start again. They don't give a shit about Donbass, they came to Ukraine FOR Ukraine.

[VinDici]

Turkey or Israel could mediate.

However, there is little reason to believe in any good faith from the Russian side since there is not one agreement standing they have respected with Ukraine. I think only a resounding defeat of Russia will be the end of this war, otherwise Russia will simply regroup and do the same again whilst lying in the faces of the International community.

Only way to curtail it's power to wean away the reliance on Russian resources, and ensure that long term, technologies like microchips are not exported to Russia.

Bad on me, I should been more clear about the disqualifications coming from both sides, as in France and Germany would be nixed by Ukraine and the UK nixed by Russia.

Does Switzerland's neutrality allow it to serve in a mediator role? Other than the Swiss, it's hard to think of another country in Europe that hasn't formally or informally chosen a side.

[Jmsuttr]

Not necessarily. UK and Boris Johnson in particular are very popular in Ukraine (unlike Germany, France and Italy).

Bad on me, I should been more clear about the disqualifications coming from both sides, as in France and Germany would be nixed by Ukraine and the UK nixed by Russia.

Does Switzerland's neutrality allow it to serve in a mediator role? Other than the Swiss, it's hard to think of another country in Europe that hasn't formally or informally chosen a side.

[Xpartan]

The French would have been prime candidates had not Macron made his recent "let's not humiliate Putin" comment. Whether one agrees with him or not, he's clearly disqualified himself in the eyes of Ukraine. In fact, I think most of the European "great powers" (UK, France, Germany, etc.) have ruled themselves out. So, the million-dollar question is, who is left?

Not necessarily. UK and Boris Johnson in particular are very popular in Ukraine (unlike Germany, France and Italy).

[Jmsuttr]

I actually enjoy your authoritative posts. As I kind of mentioned with another poster, I would be careful delving into the idea that there are some certain outcomes in the aftermath of this war.

I have avoided making definitive statements about where things will end up. You are correct that the Ukraine is fighting an existential war. However, I don't think we want to push Putin and the Russian military into thinking this is an existential war for Russia. I'm not talking about letting the Russians leverage the nuke card for gain. I am talking about driving the Russians to commit to an extended war that never seems to end.

I have no idea how things will end up. If you think the Ukraine will push the Russians out of the Eastern Ukraine / Crimea and the Russians will just pack up, go home and everything will be settled, I would hope for that but I think it is optimistic.

You're right the Ukrainians on the ground, don't care what I think about negotiations. Since this war is impacting the global economy everyone has a stake in it.

As far as a third party broker being tangential, I would disagree and say they can be helpful at times. Obviously the Ukraine and Russia have to both tire of the war and want to pursue a way out, but there are so many levers and so many implications globally I think there are countries that can help. Just the fact that some prominent European leaders were trying to tell Putin on the phone that the war was not going great for him is an act of trying to drive peace negotiations.

I agree that trying to predict specific outcomes is a fool's errand. I have been pretty consistent, however, in my assertion that there are no reality-based winnable scenarios for Russia, only varying degrees of failure.

And, as I see it, that's not so much a prediction as an observation. To me it's similar to seeing someone who painted themselves into a corner. You can't predict exactly what pattern of steps they'll follow, but you can safely observe that there's no path out of the corner that avoids getting paint on the shoes. Of course, they could simply decide to stay in the corner, but that's just another failure variant. I think the FT article I just posted does a good job of keeping things in the proper perspective, and I think those who are yielding to the temptation of making predictions are getting caught up in a mood-swing mentality.

As far as third-party brokers are concerned, maybe I'm having a brain cramp but for the life of me I'm struggling to recall a circumstance, at least in modern times, in which any have played a substantive role or made a material difference. Do you have any specific examples in mind?

When one combatant surrenders unconditionally it doesn't much matter where the agreement is signed. And if neither side is ready to negotiate, third parties are irrelevant, as witness the Ukraine-Russia meetings that took place in Istanbul. Maybe the best role for a mediator, when the time is ripe, is just to provide a meeting venue and make sure there's plenty of coffee on hand! Oh yes, and pastries would be great, as would a nice lunch. The French would have been prime candidates had not Macron made his recent "let's not humiliate Putin" comment. Whether one agrees with him or not, he's clearly disqualified himself in the eyes of Ukraine. In fact, I think most of the European "great powers" (UK, France, Germany, etc.) have ruled themselves out. So, the million-dollar question is, who is left?

[Jmsuttr]

I've posted often that the direction of the tide is more important than the action of the waves. This article sets a similar tone, warning against the mood swings that can accompany positive and negative reports (about either side).

https://www.ft.com/content/f2f360e0-...3-775eb244d1d2

Imagine if WW-II (or pick your war) battles had been subject to near-instantaneous comments and analysis on Twitter, Instagram, etc. I'm personally not a huge fan of social media (prob a generational thing) but it's easy to see how such media channels can make it difficult to keep the big picture in clear focus.

P.S. When I used the above link for the first time, I got a readable version of the article. But using it again resulted in a paywalled page. If the link doesn't work for you, try this one:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www....3-775eb244d1d2