Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Golfinho]

What's really funny is that Putin's actions have strengthened the (US-led) NATO alliance in ways that wouldn't have happened otherwise. Which means, as I've mentioned in another post, that the presence of the US in Europe is likely to increase. I wonder how many more "vassal" states will be created as a result?

Not really funny at all. Really predictable is what it is.

The Empire of Lies bid to incorporate Ukraine as another vassal is on temporary hold. We'll all have to wait and see how it goes. Wars can have uncertain outcomes.

[WyattEarp]

I'm not going to debate with a moron and I don't care much about the future of Putin or Russia. My concern is with the future of Ukraine. In particular, preventing the utter destruction of much of Ukraine. Because that's where things are heading.

Ukrainians are betting on a coup if they can hold out another week or two. An extremely risky strategy. Putin's demands are reasonable (assuming de-militarization only refers to offensive weapons and Ukraine can have unlimited anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and a neutral party like China, Egypt, Peru, etc brokers and monitors the deal). Everyone who cares about Ukraine should be urging them to accept those demands and bring this war to a speedy conclusion. Putin is not to be messed with, and thinking otherwise is how we got where we are, though he has shown himself to be stupider than most people ever imagined. Stupid, cruel and powerful is actually worse than smart, cruel and powerful, because stupid is less predictable. However, we can still safely predict that Putin can and will destroy Ukraine rather than "lose". Destroyed Ukraine that is not in NATO or EU is victory in his eyes, regardless of what you think.

First, dial down the name calling. Anyone here can have your insulting posts deleted and you can be put on moderation (if you haven't been already). Moderation is not fun. Your posts might not get posted by the moderator until the next day. By then, the conversation might have moved on.

You have been shaping Putin's demands as mostly keeping the Ukraine out of NATO. Is that why he invaded Crimea in 2014? That makes no sense. Invade your neighbor so they don't search for allies. More broadly, Putin doesn't want a functioning democracy that is prospering with EU trade on his border. He wants his former Soviet vassals.

You can call me names and try to dismiss me instead of my arguments. You can say this invasion is all about stopping the Ukraine from joining NATO. In my opinion, this is more about Putin dominating the Ukraine. Perhaps the Belarus model is not such a bad thing. Putin won't crush you in return for total allegiance and loss of sovereignty.

By the way, there will be no victors from this war. This war is particularly bad for everyone, but clearly the Ukrainians.

[Kozerog]

How does Putin get from winning the battle for Ukraine to actually winning the war

I'm not going to debate with a moron and I don't care much about the future of Putin or Russia. My concern is with the future of Ukraine. In particular, preventing the utter destruction of much of Ukraine. Because that's where things are heading.

Ukrainians are betting on a coup if they can hold out another week or two. An extremely risky strategy. Putin's demands are reasonable (assuming de-militarization only refers to offensive weapons and Ukraine can have unlimited anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and a neutral party like China, Egypt, Peru, etc brokers and monitors the deal). Everyone who cares about Ukraine should be urging them to accept those demands and bring this war to a speedy conclusion. Putin is not to be messed with, and thinking otherwise is how we got where we are, though he has shown himself to be stupider than most people ever imagined. Stupid, cruel and powerful is actually worse than smart, cruel and powerful, because stupid is less predictable. However, we can still safely predict that Putin can and will destroy Ukraine rather than "lose". Destroyed Ukraine that is not in NATO or EU is victory in his eyes, regardless of what you think.

[Mojo Bandit]

Seems to me that recent history is replete with examples of the German "vassal" having its own mind, and taking positions that didn't please the US.

I am agreeing with you but just want to throw some more into the discussion.

Germany / GDP per capita 45,723. 64 USD.

Russia / GDP per capita 10,126. 72 USD.

Gee wiz Beaver, I think I would prefer to live in the German "vassal" than the cronyism capitalist country that ranks 1st in natural resources and 57th in per capita GDP,

Here is an interesting article about comments from someone who actually knew Putin and also knows the mindset of the Russian leadrship structure. He is the former foreign mintister. He says the reason that the Russian army is doing so poorly is that for years people have been embezzling money from the budget. He also says that Putin does not know any of this and probably does not know how poorly the invasion is going because people are afraid to tell him.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...NLZH3aIcC73CuA

[WyattEarp]

I understand you are using "you" rhetorically to mean "any person" but the above paragraph suggests you think that, because I see Putin's / Russia's point of view, I endorse this view or that I'm trying to help Russia and so it's me playing the cards. Which suggests you are a typical stupid American who can only see the world in black and white terms, where Americans are always good guys. This stupidity hasn't gotten the USA into much serious trouble so far, because USA has been such an impregnable fortress until recently, but it will get USA into trouble in the future if we (I'm American) don't reform soon.

Note that, for all the talk of the horror of bombing civilians and especially using nukes on civilians, guess which country is the only country to use nukes and to use them on a civilian target? That's right, USA. We did it because the Japanese leaders were negotiating with Stalin to join in military alliance. USA thus set a precedent that nuclear weapons are okay to use in such cases. Similar case as with Ukraine negotiating to join NATO. Anger at me for telling the truth would be better directed at Zelensky and his extremist handlers for refusing to accept Russia's reasonable demands, same as fault for the Hiroshima bombing goes to the Japanese leaders, plus anyone who supported those leaders..

Besides descending into name-calling, criticizing stupid Americans and just about everyone accept Putin and the Russian military, you have not addressed the main point I made. How does Putin get from winning the battle for Ukraine to actually winning the war. Do you think the Europeans will just say "Okay you win. You get to keep the Ukraine again as one of your chess pieces. " without an extreme cost to the Russians.

Sure, countries enter and continue battles that don't add anything strategically or tactically to their benefit (I. E. USA And Russia in Afghanistan). However, you have not offered a response how Putin comes out a winner in the long-run. Instead, you have offered a dog's breakfast of propaganda. When challenged, you redirect to the United States as the big, bad menace even when we can see the Europeans are as cohesive continent-wide as they have ever been.

You also seem to dive back far into history. Some of it is relevant today. However, I don't see Putin being too effective at cordoning off and isolating Russians. 2022 is not 1948. The world is a lot smaller. You can try to use the Chinese government as an example, but China has been truly an economic miracle. The Chinese dictators have had more legitimacy because of this economic success. It's no accident that China is also integrated with the global economy. Russia will likely suffer in isolation.

[Kozerog]

Your Russian bias comes through clearly in your posts. Perhaps you have Russian ethnicity or perhaps you are just a Russophile. I think you said you were studying Russian. From your posts, I don't think you are learning Russian to apply for a job with the CIA or a European intelligence agency.
...

You have alluded to Putin rattling the nuclear saber to have the world take him and his demands seriously. Can this move be any stupider? You can't play this card and expect to win anything.

I understand you are using "you" rhetorically to mean "any person" but the above paragraph suggests you think that, because I see Putin's / Russia's point of view, I endorse this view or that I'm trying to help Russia and so it's me playing the cards. Which suggests you are a typical stupid American who can only see the world in black and white terms, where Americans are always good guys. This stupidity hasn't gotten the USA into much serious trouble so far, because USA has been such an impregnable fortress until recently, but it will get USA into trouble in the future if we (I'm American) don't reform soon.

Note that, for all the talk of the horror of bombing civilians and especially using nukes on civilians, guess which country is the only country to use nukes and to use them on a civilian target? That's right, USA. We did it because the Japanese leaders were negotiating with Stalin to join in military alliance. USA thus set a precedent that nuclear weapons are okay to use in such cases. Similar case as with Ukraine negotiating to join NATO. Anger at me for telling the truth would be better directed at Zelensky and his extremist handlers for refusing to accept Russia's reasonable demands, same as fault for the Hiroshima bombing goes to the Japanese leaders, plus anyone who supported those leaders.

(As an aside, though leaders should be judged on actions, without a lot psycho-analyzing, and this goes for both Putin and Zelensky, it's worrh remembering that the latter is an actor, thus has a natural attraction to drama, publicity, heroic role-playing, etc. If a strong personality, Zekensky can resist that attraction and do what is best for Ukraine. Otherwise, he will do what it takes to keep himself in the public eye, including unnecessarily prolonging the war.)

I studied Russian for use in Ukraine, dumbass. It continues to be the most widely spoken language in Kyiv right up until Oct 2021 when I was last there, and is essentially the only language spoken in Odesa, Dnipro and Kharkiv, among others. Never visited Russia, never plan to.

[Neurosynth]

Once again, winning the peace will be even harder than winning the war, as Mr. Putin is most assuredly going to find out. In the end, he's going to lose both, and go down as just another beady-eyed Russian tyrant. And so far, even winning the battles has not been as easy as he thought it would be. Not good for Russia. Not good for the world.

This is what passes for optimism these days, but even this is overly optimistic I'm afraid.

Talk of chemical weapons.

Talk of biological weapons.

Talk of nuclear weapons.

Talk of military aid being an act of war.

Talk of "escalate to de-escalate. ".

Talk of false flag operations.

Talk of ethnic cleansing.

Talk of tactical nuclear weapons under field generals.

So many ways to go wrong. Any one of which can trigger the end.

[Jmsuttr]

I will concede that I do not know how the chinese feel about Russia but I have pointed out that there has been considerable exchanges of what would be considered highly top secret technogy of weapans and recently statement by China's president saying that Russia and China's friendship has "no limits" - one could hope that this is mostly rhetoric but if also look at all the other cooperation they have had and while people say they do not have "formal alliance" - but you see it looks like duck, it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck. So.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-r...ar-11646279098

https://warsawinstitute.review/issue...tary-alliance/

https://thediplomat.com/2016/12/behi...-relationship/

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3067.html

https://tass.com/politics/1379867?ut...rer=google.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_S..._of_Friendship

https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/th...e-cooperation/

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...1836911b1dbc45

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mili...s-trade-player

China sends humanitarian aid to Ukraine:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-new...n-aid-official

China urges implementation of safe humanitarian corridors:

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-0...Ouk/index.html

"As a peace-loving country, China laments the fact that the situation in Ukraine has come to this stage, Zhang said. China supports all efforts to ease the escalation and strongly opposes any action that is not conducive to promoting a political settlement but rather fuels the fire and escalates the situation, he said" "Zhang reiterated that China's position of safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter has been consistent".

As is ever the case, China will pursue it's own interests. They have no problem helping Russia avoid sanctions, especially if that leaves Russia indebted to them. But, despite ongoing speculation, has anyone seen evidence of any concrete military assistance from China to Russia?

I've been regularly checking news sources and social media accounts that are posting in-depth reports about the war in Ukraine. Whether pro-Russia or pro-Ukraine, any evidence of material military support would be a huge deal and would be widely covered. There have been zero reports of such, not even so much as single Chinese military-grade supply truck.

Those reporting on the war are scrutinizing satellite imagery, photos of trains and rail stations, etc. And there have been absolutely no sightings of Chinese equipment being employed by Russia. Talk is cheap, and everyone is entitled to their opinion, but facts and evidence are what will rule the day.

[Mojo Bandit]

Putin said there is Nazis in Ukraine and he has to clean them out for his country's benefit, but there is always Nazis in Germany, will later Putin also take care Germany? For example, attacking Berlin? If Americans now send troops, I don't think China, India, Brazil etc. Will do any business with Russia, because it will be a final contest, it's a matter dying for justice or dying as a coward!

The above is only my two cents, it doesn't represent any groups or governments' opinion.

I will concede that I do not know how the Chinese feel about Russia but I have pointed out that there has been considerable exchanges of what would be considered highly top secret technology of weapons and not the kind you share with anyone but a close friend and theres the recent statement by China's president saying that Russia and China's friendship has "no limits" - one could hope that this is mostly rhetoric but if one also looks at all the other cooperation they have had the the conclusion is that people say they do not have "formal alliance" - but you can see that it looks like duck, it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck. So....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-r...ar-11646279098

https://warsawinstitute.review/issue...tary-alliance/

https://thediplomat.com/2016/12/behind-china-and-russias-special-relationship/

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3067.html

https://tass.com/politics/1379867?ut...rer=google.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_S..._of_Friendship

https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/the-emperors-league-understanding-sino-russian-defense-cooperation/

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...1836911b1dbc45

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/mili...s-trade-player

[NRandom940]

Anyone know about this guy? Anyone talk to him on PM?

Is he still with us?

[The Cane]

Win the battle, but lose the war.

Once again, winning the peace will be even harder than winning the war, as Mr. Putin is most assuredly going to find out. In the end, he's going to lose both, and go down as just another beady-eyed Russian tyrant. And so far, even winning the battles has not been as easy as he thought it would be. Not good for Russia. Not good for the world.

[Jmsuttr]

The GDR ceased to exist after 'reunification' while the Bundesrepublik continued. This was no end to the Cold War; it was the post-war Allied Occupied Zone expanding. The root problem is America has refused to release its subjugated German vassal, and won't do so until they're rooted out.

Seems to me that recent history is replete with examples of the German "vassal" having its own mind, and taking positions that didn't please the US.

As far as rooting them out, would you prefer the Germans did that themselves or would you like to have some non-German power handle that job? And which country would you prefer, Russia, or China, or someone else?

What's really funny is that Putin's actions have strengthened the (US-led) NATO alliance in ways that wouldn't have happened otherwise. Which means, as I've mentioned in another post, that the presence of the US in Europe is likely to increase. I wonder how many more "vassal" states will be created as a result? Any guesses?

[WyattEarp]

The single most important thing we can do is precisely to analyze, etc. Ukraine got into this mess because it didn't think. To get out of the mess, it has to start thinking or get help thinking, especially from those of us comfortably sitting outside Ukraine and thus able to keep our minds from getting carried away by emotions.

So far, my attempts to talk sense to Ukrainians have resulted mostly in furious accusations that I'm a Russian troll, followed by banning me from forums. If everyone talking sense is accused of being a troll (and that's what I'm seeing), then Ukraine is truly in bad shape and will likely be dealt with like a stupid, strong and rebellious bull: beaten senseless, a ring put through the nose, maybe castrated to permanently calm it down........

Your Russian bias comes through clearly in your posts. Perhaps you have Russian ethnicity or perhaps you are just a Russophile. I think you said you were studying Russian. From your posts, I don't think you are learning Russian to apply for a job with the CIA or a European intelligence agency.

Surely, the Ukrainians will lose the battle for her country. But Putin will likely lose the war. This invasion is taking on global strategic implications. Putin did more for Ukrainian sovereign identity in two weeks than the last eight years since Putin's puppet was thrown out of the country. Putin has also united the Europeans. Even Switzerland is lending a small hand.

These new sanctions will seriously harm ordinary Russians. (You seem so genuinely concerned about ordinary Ukrainians. How about ordinary Russians?) The cost to occupy, control and / or rebuild the Ukraine will hurt a weakened economy. The Russian military expenditures likely won't be cutback in the short-run though. The likely outcomes in reaction will be more European defense spending and more global exploration / distribution of gas and oil. Neither of which is good for Russia in the long-run.

You have alluded to Putin rattling the nuclear saber to have the world take him and his demands seriously. Can this move be any stupider? You can't play this card and expect to win anything. Sure, it keeps Polish MiGs out of Ukrainian hands. It might even keep a light touch by the West, as Russia pounds the Ukrainians into submission. However, you don't think Europe and the USA Are adjusting their strategic defense policies? Even the Chinese might be thinking WTF is this guy doing.

Win the battle, but lose the war.

[WyattEarp]

Sorry, but I strongly disagree. Europe is not capable of defending itself (nothing new there), and Putin's mad-tsar disease is threatening the world right now. While Xi might become way more dangerous in the future, is it wise to ignore a present danger fighting a possible threat down the road instead?

Of course you're right. Europe cannot currently defend itself.

However, global strategic pivots don't occur overnight. If Germany was meeting its 2% NATO commitment to "pure" defense expenditures, it would likely be able to go toe-to-toe with Russia just on their own.

Having said that, Merkel's Russia policies are now being reevaluated. History has a a way of bringing clarity to the politics of the past.

[Jmsuttr]

The USA is a serial invader of other countries. Right now, it is occupying and looting Syria of its oil. It destroyed Libya, got its side kicks to destroy Libya, is complicit in the Saudi genocide of Yemen, destroyed the Nordstream 2 gas project. Here is how American "tourists" should be treated, scum like McCain especially.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYWy...LearningCenter

Only the USA threatens the world? Really? Is the irony of posting this statement in the Kiev forum lost on you?

Why don't you find the nearest Ukrainian and make that statement directly to their face? Then come back and let us know how that went.

And while you're at it, go ahead and repeat that exercise with someone from Taiwan or Hong Kong.