Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

And the tide has turned against Russia in several significant ways.

Before elaborating on the above, I wanted to thank the senior members who sent me DMs. I initially took a break to help out a family member who was having medical issues. After that resolved I decided to take a long overdue vacation. During that extended break I realized that, while others would doubtlessly get all worked up debating every wave and ripple, I should follow my own advice about only concerning myself with tidal events. Since the end of June, when I last posted, things were mostly at a standstill until the Kharkhiv counteroffensive in September. And even that, as notable as it was (and is) is better described as a byproduct of a tidal force, rather than the force itself. Here's my reasoning:

1. Battlefield tidal forces: Russia, even after retreating from Kyiv, maintained a significant numerical advantage in terms of artillery and the ability to launch massive "fires" at a town or area to push Ukrainian forces back. The Russkies didn't care if they obliterated everything, they'd roll in and take possession of the ruins. Even with advantages in morale and competence, Ukrainian forces were fighting against the tidal force of massed artillery, and similar weapons systems. The fact they (Ukraine) were able to force a de facto stalemate is a huge credit to them.

The tide on the battlefield shifted with the introduction of HIMARS and other precision and long-range Western systems. Ukraine has been able to disrupt Russian logistics by hitting ammo dumps and fuel depots while staying out of range of Russian guns. The fact that Russian logistics are mostly railroad dependent means those weapons and fuel caches aren't that hard to locate. And if Russian forces try to spread them out that makes their logistics chain less efficient, and slower. Since the introduction of HIMARS, the M777, HARMs, etc. , Russia has been on the back foot and unable to mount any significant offensive actions. Ukraine is now on the front foot, as evidenced by both Kherson and Kharkhiv fronts, and Russia is on the defensive. Mobilization is Russia's attempt to turn the tide but, IMO, it's probably too little, and too late, and has negative consequences that affect other (non-battlefield) tidal forces.

2. Economic tidal forces: People can debate the efficacy of sanctions, and they're certainly in a constant state of enforcement vs evasion flux, but I would argue that the only proof that matters is what translates to the battlefield. Between formal (govt imposed) and informal (private company decisions) sanctions, I've seen no evidence of a shift in the prevailing tide, which is against Russia. Any money Putin may have from oil and gas sales does not seem to have translated into material benefits on the battlefield. And the mobilization, as I mentioned in #1 (above) has unintended negative consequences for the economy. By taking hundreds of thousands of working-age men out of the economy, compounded by hundreds of thousands more who have fled to avoid conscription, there will be nasty domino-effect cascades that we haven't yet begun to see. The fact the Russian economy hasn't collapsed is not the real issue. They're resilient and resourceful and I'm sure they'll find a way to muddle through. But the key point is that they haven't been able to stop their deteriorating position on the battlefield. And the pattern of losses is bound to be detrimental to the national morale and psyche.

I'm sure some will rush to point out Putin's weaponization of energy and how Europe will be affected this winter. While I don't have a crystal ball, I'd simply note that Europe has remained remarkably unified while Putin has increasingly made negotiations a non-starter. By continually ramping up the threats and showing no reluctance to shut off oil and gas flows, Russia has shown itself to be an untrustworthy bully. The only point of a negotiation is if there's confidence that agreements would be respected and that the bully wouldn't simply resume aggression in the future. Ukraine certainly has no confidence and, just as importantly, neither do the Baltics, Poland, and other significant countries. So I expect Europe will muddle through their own set of issues this winter. And, while tides can always change, I see no evidence that's happening at this time.

3. Demographic tidal forces: The brain drain that was already happening has been exacerbated by even more Russians fleeing conscription. Unrest and resentment is increasing in regions which are not ethnically Russian, like Dagestan. And millions who were previously able to ignore the "Special Military Operation" are now having to worry about their family members being sent to war. If Russia was being invaded, or if they were winning the war, they could probably be successful in creating a positive feeling in the population. But neither of those conditions holds true, which means that negative sentiment, unrest, and population outflow, are likely to continue. It's also worth noting that Russian state media, and pro-Russian social channels, have turned negative and taken to finger-pointing and blaming various figures (usually military) for failures, which probably has an amplifying effect on any negative sentiment in the population.

4. Geopolitical tidal forces: Russia has continued down the path of national isolation and even supposed "friends," like China and India, are (mildly) supportive in word rather than deed. They see Russia losing and want to maintain enough distance to avoid getting pulled down (or in). The CSTO has crumbled as Azerbaijan vs Armenia and Tajikistan vs Kyrgyzstan conflicts arise without Moscow having the ability to influence matters. Kazakhstan has cozied up to China and has openly defied Putin, refusing to acknowledge the annexation of Ukrainian territories. In fact, IIRC, only North Korea has given such acknowledgement. Even China and India have remained silent, while Turkey has openly condemned it. It's obvious to all who aren't Putin sycophants that Russia has lost influence, respect, and has retained only a fraction of it's former geopolitical position. That's a tidal force that's unlikely to change for years, or decades, if ever.

I'm sure others can add to the list above, or argue the validity of various points, so knock yourselves out. But I wanted to make this post now because it's very possible that Putin, depending on how he chooses to respond to the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge, may turn some (or all) of those tidal forces into raging cascades. Stay tuned!

[Paulie97]

Let's not oversimplify. That "planning for every possible scenario" thingy -- I'm very skeptical. For one thing, I'm not at all convinced NATO will act quickly and decisively if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Even if they suddenly decide they've got balls, there will be quite a few logistical challenges.

1. Russia's fleets aren't important to their war efforts, but Russia has 60+ submarines that won't be easy to locate and take out quickly. I believe half of them are nuclear-powered.

2. Russia's occupying forces are stationed in populated areas. How are we going to take them out without destroying the cities and killing the locals?

3. Nato's direct involvement will make the war even more unpredictable than it is now. You just don't know what can finally push that maniac to push that button.

4. Don't kid yourself expecting ALL Russian strategic nukes to misfire. They have 6,000. Even if 10% reach their destinations that's game over for most of the world.

That said, we still have to press ahead supporting Ukraine, no matter what. I just hope you're right and Nato is prepared for whatever lies ahead.

The one that "lacks balls" is you, not NATO. Why not just join up with Kerzhog and Pedro and tell Ukraine to bend over and grab their ankles? Yes we are prepared for a "catastrophic response" if Poots uses tactical nukes, and that's precisely what you are going to see if he takes that step. The odds of that though remain very low. It would involve Russia losing the few major players left that will have anything to do with them. Plus there's no guarantee that the order would get carried out.

[Xpartan]

Regardless of landmass, Russia is a country where 25% of people lack indoor plumbing, from which soldiers steal washing machines (a common appliance in western nations for over 50 years), and from which 700,000 people, including 300,000 military aged males have fled (10% to 20% of available). I respect the Russian people and culture, but they lack technology and as we've seen their weapons are laughable and military training non-existent. You can easily find these facts via google. What the 300,000 young men noted above do have is a survival instinct.

If Mother Russia hasn't taken the time to buy her soldier sons socks I seriously doubt she's been taking the time to maintain her nuclear arsenal. There's much greater risk of these bombs blowing up in their silos and the Russians know it. Also the first time that even a tactical nuke is dropped the US / NATO will wipe out the Black See Fleet, the Northern Fleet and ANY Russian soldier that our OUTSTANDING satellite imagery can find. Do you not understand that our highly TRAINED and EXPERIENCED military leadership has already planned for every possible scenario? Ukraine would be clear in 3-4 days and if we wanted to put up a McDonalds in Red Square we could do so by Christmas.

Let's not oversimplify. That "planning for every possible scenario" thingy -- I'm very skeptical. For one thing, I'm not at all convinced NATO will act quickly and decisively if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Even if they suddenly decide they've got balls, there will be quite a few logistical challenges.

1. Russia's fleets aren't important to their war efforts, but Russia has 60+ submarines that won't be easy to locate and take out quickly. I believe half of them are nuclear-powered.

2. Russia's occupying forces are stationed in populated areas. How are we going to take them out without destroying the cities and killing the locals?

3. Nato's direct involvement will make the war even more unpredictable than it is now. You just don't know what can finally push that maniac to push that button.

4. Don't kid yourself expecting ALL Russian strategic nukes to misfire. They have 6,000. Even if 10% reach their destinations that's game over for most of the world.

That said, we still have to press ahead supporting Ukraine, no matter what. I just hope you're right and Nato is prepared for whatever lies ahead.

[Chicago85]

Do you not understand that your highly trained and experienced military leadership has already failed to defeat adversaries in every possible scenario -- from tribesmen in sandals to viets in pajamas?

The USA Captured all of Iraq's major cities in 3 weeks. It's a country of 40+ million. It was similar to Afghanistan. The challenge comes with guerilla warfare, the rural countryside, and the fact that the government tied the militaries hands in many ways. If Russia drops a nuke the gloves will be off with untied hands, don't kid yourself.

[Golfinho]

. Do you not understand that our highly trained and experienced military leadership has already planned for every possible scenario? Ukraine would be clear in 3-4 days and if we wanted to...

Do you not understand that your highly trained and experienced military leadership has already failed to defeat adversaries in every possible scenario -- from tribesmen in sandals to viets in pajamas?

[Chicago85]

Have you ever seen the map? Try paying attention to the size of Europe relative to the Russian landmass. This should give you some clues as to what gets wiped out or not.

Just the same, there's not going to be a nuclear Armagedeon. It's not like the insane fundamentalist zionists are anywhere near the red buttons.

Regardless of landmass, Russia is a country where 25% of people lack indoor plumbing, from which soldiers steal washing machines (a common appliance in western nations for over 50 years), and from which 700,000 people, including 300,000 military aged males have fled (10% to 20% of available). I respect the Russian people and culture, but they lack technology and as we've seen their weapons are laughable and military training non-existent. You can easily find these facts via google. What the 300,000 young men noted above do have is a survival instinct.

If Mother Russia hasn't taken the time to buy her soldier sons socks I seriously doubt she's been taking the time to maintain her nuclear arsenal. There's much greater risk of these bombs blowing up in their silos and the Russians know it. Also the first time that even a tactical nuke is dropped the US / NATO will wipe out the Black See Fleet, the Northern Fleet and ANY Russian soldier that our OUTSTANDING satellite imagery can find. Do you not understand that our highly TRAINED and EXPERIENCED military leadership has already planned for every possible scenario? Ukraine would be clear in 3-4 days and if we wanted to put up a McDonalds in Red Square we could do so by Christmas.

[Riina]

Have you guys noticed the little Ukrainian flags and bumper stickers in communities are slowly disappearing? We're all that much closer to getting smoked for a bunch of crooks.

[VinDici]

Sure, and it will end where it began: with NATO back to stealth pushing to dismember Russia. Simple as that.

As opposed to Russia blatantly invading other countries and taking their land and resources?

[Golfinho]

It can end very easily. All Putin has to do is withdraw his troops and it will end. Just one man's orders. As simple as that.

Sure, and it will end where it began: with NATO back to stealth pushing to dismember Russia. Simple as that.

[YummyPL]

https://zeihan.com/russia-calls-up-more-troops/

"It is still the Russians war to lose. But they are following the playbook."

I have been listening to Peter Zhein's speeches and I cannot see how anyone can be pro-war. There is no winning this war. It is how much we all lose and it is not just Ukraine or Russia but all of mankind. If the world does not have access to the potash and fertilizer of Russia and Belarus, the resulting famine is going to make these war deaths look like a blip. This war really, really, really needs to end.

It can end very easily. All Putin has to do is withdraw his troops and it will end. Just one man's orders. As simple as that.

[VinDici]

So you absorb your information exclusively from mainstream Anglo-American zio news sources. You're excused.

I prefer that to pulling it out from my arse.

[Golfinho]

Germans would and are allowed to buy gas from Russia. The contract is to be paid in USD. When Russian tried to change the terms and it was rejected, DE had to pivot. In order to stop DE filling it's reserves before winter, Russia turned off the gas. No intervention from the US required or needed.

Who are these protesters in Germany other than Russians with permits to live there, latest support for Ukraine was higher than 70% in Germany and the number has increased with each month.

So you absorb your information exclusively from mainstream Anglo-American zio news sources. You're excused.

[Xpartan]

Pro-Kremlin neo-Nazi militia inciting the torture and murder of Ukrainian prisoners.

A neo-Nazi pro-Kremlin group active in Ukraine is inciting atrocities against prisoners of war and explicitly advocates the torture of captives including removing body parts. The self-styled Task Force Rusich is fighting in Ukraine on behalf of the Kremlin and is linked to the notorious Wagner Group mercenaries.

A message on Rusichs Telegram channel sent on 22 September advocates the destruction of prisoners on the spot.

The Rusich Telegram post contains specific and detailed instructions for the channels followers on the disposal of prisoners of war from the armed forces of Ukraine.

Its key points also include explicit instructions to murder captives after interrogation and encourages forcing the families of murdered captives to pay Rusich for the coordinates of their loved ones bodies.

It says the capture of Ukrainians should not be reported to the pro-Kremlin command, and if a report has to be made, it should say that the captive is already injured or dying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nian-prisoners

[VinDici]

Simpleton. The Germans signed a contract to buy Russian gas. Uncle Shmuel made a sanction and told the Germans they couldn't buy anymore Gazprom. The German leadership followed orders, breaching their contract and can be sued because of it. Then the German people went to streets to protest this idiotic decision. Afraid the puppet politicians would respect the people they obstensibly represent, Uncle Shmuel blows up the pipeline.

Where is this fantasy from?

Germans would and are allowed to buy gas from Russia. The contract is to be paid in USD. When Russian tried to change the terms and it was rejected, DE had to pivot. In order to stop DE filling it's reserves before winter, Russia turned off the gas. No intervention from the US required or needed.

Who are these protesters in Germany other than Russians with permits to live there, latest support for Ukraine was higher than 70% in Germany and the number has increased with each month.

[VinDici]

1. Belarus.

https://odessa-journal.com/defence-i...an-federation/ + Russia was economical with the truth when it sent its peace keepers in.

2. You know Russian blew the pipelines in one of NATO's most heavily guarded waters. Between us, we know everything. You know everything except you are a cross dressing bisexual moron and I know that already.

3. You want a bet but I don't want to know shoe shit like you. I don't bet, not financially at least. I was going to travel tomorrow to take care of business like you but it can wait.

4. Nuclear war: The world without the USA would be a better place. Nuke it.

4. Go back to pulling your cock and sucking the cocks of others. You know no better.

There are no peace keepers from Russia, there are only invaders it's not the same.

You're not only a liar you're a coward plain and simple.