Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[WyattEarp]

I have no problem with the article, except it would be nice to see authors include some kind of admission that there are possible outcomes they haven't thought of, or ones they've thought about but don't have a clue as to how things could turn out.

For example, what if Putin dies, or is incapacitated, or is deposed? From my reading of the article, the post-war scenarios assume that Putin's policies will continue along the same trajectory. But, if Russia suffers a humiliating defeat (as defined by Russia's own war-hawks), it's a coin-flip as to whether he stays in power. And even a peaceful transfer of power isn't a guarantee of continuity. If Russia's economy is in bad shape, the new leader could decide to blame everything on Putin.
......................................

So my only real point is that war, and especially this one, is full of "unknown unknowns," which I wish more pundits and analysts would acknowledge when writing their articles.

I didn't really take it as that. I think the authors were trying to raise the real possibility that the war might not resolve a lot. I also have thought about how wars achieve complete resolution (many don't) and thought the authors' statement below was insightful.

"The hypothesis that Russia's full-scale defeat would excise the cancer of imperialism from the Russian leadership and body politic rests on a clumsy analogy to Germany's unconditional surrender in World War II, and stems from a desire not just to end this war but to foreclose the possibility of Russia starting any future war in Europe. It is an intoxicating vision, but one unconnected to reality."

I'm sure the authors considered Putin dying, incapacitated or being deposed. It would seem to me to be a risky proposition to continue fighting and forgoing negotiations on this hope alone. Putin's departure by one means or another could possibly bring an ideal conclusion of the war, but it is also predicated on other things happening after his removal.

As far as "Russia suffers a humiliating defeat", I don't see that happening on the battlefield. Without NATO support for the Ukraine attacking Russian targets, I think a grinding stalemate inside the Ukraine is far more likely. So in my opinion, the humiliating Russian defeat only comes about with regime change and capitulation. This gets back to my point do you continue fighting and forgoing negotiations on the premise that Putin is close to being removed one way or another.

In the likely responses to follow, I would not impose too much argumentative meaning to my raising the issue of negotiations. One in disagreement can chastise the idea of negotiations, but there are many matters that need to be resolved to end the conflict. Those who think that the Ukrainians will drive the Russians out of the Ukraine indefinitely including Crimea and possibly incite a regime change in Russia clearly would find much to disagree with my post.

[Jojosun]

Putin&Biden got Blood on their hands, But of course Putin has the biggest share.

And another thing, who in Russia would be able to square up to Putin in public and give him a piece of his mind in a similar way this Brave American Veteran confronted Biden! Urlreplacement0}.

Here's the Link. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ojkCKPtcJ54.

[Jmsuttr]

As I've posted before, it's better to get information from as close to an original source as you can. This site, while it's certainly pro-Ukraine, doesn't feature analysis or commentary. Rather it simply translates interesting items from Russian or Ukrainian into English. As with all sources, you need to use your own judgment and discernment about the veracity and value of any individual item.

https://wartranslated.com

Here are two that recently got my attention:

https://wartranslated.com/igor-girki...-10-june-2022/

Girkin's (see below) assessment of the battle for Southern Ukraine.

https://wartranslated.com/lpr-blogge...ian-offensive/

An LPR blogger's assessment of the consequences of a recent Ukrainian strike on a Russian supply depot.

As you browse the site, you'll see quite a few entries that translate comments by Igor Girkin. He's an FSB Colonel (reserves, but still connected) who often gives scathing critiques of Russian military leadership and performance. He's pro-Russia, but he advocates for doing even more, such as full mobilization. So it's interesting to read his critiques and assessments. The site's author is of the opinion that Girkin is allowed to speak out, as long as he doesn't directly criticize Putin, as a way of giving voice to extreme war-hawk views. You can read and make up your own mind.

[PedroMorales]

Nor was that Massive invasion of Iraq which Farty Joe supported and helped to mislead public opinion about it. "More than 4,500 US soldiers, and nearly as many US military contractors, lost their lives; tens of thousands were wounded, with hundreds of thousands more suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. Estimates of Iraqi deaths run as high as 1 Million". https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-role-iraq-war.

BTW, 19 Ukrainian Soldiers were also killed in Iraq, Sent there by Kuchma.

https://www.army.mil/article/15056/u...ission_in_iraq

No mention of all the Iraqis murdered, tortured and raped by the Americans, who said murdering 500,000 Iraqi children was worth it. To be an American today is like being a German Nazi in 1944.

[The Cane]

Spouting stupid BBC shit. If granny did not back track, your Nazi pals, egged on by the BBC, would put one in her ear.

But she did backtrack and obviously didn't know what she was doing hahaha! The Ruskies are so desperate to look good in this that they would take advantage of an old babushka. And sounds like another weakly disguised "fake news" allegation from you.

[Jmsuttr]

I found this to be an interesting article. It analyzes the challenges ahead to bringing peace to the Ukraine. While I might prefer a more resounding Ukrainian victory, I concur with the authors that "winning small" is the most likely and practical resolution to the war.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...f-ukraine-wins

Excerpt:

"But a full-scale Ukrainian military defeat of Russia, including the retaking of Crimea, verges on fantasy. It would be far too optimistic to base either Ukrainian or Western strategy on such an outcome. Pursuing it would also send the war into a new phase. Having poured billions of dollars into Crimea's development, a symbol of Russian renewal, Moscow would interpret a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea as an assault on Russian territory, something Moscow would try to prevent by all available means.

I have no problem with the article, except it would be nice to see authors include some kind of admission that there are possible outcomes they haven't thought of, or ones they've thought about but don't have a clue as to how things could turn out.

For example, what if Putin dies, or is incapacitated, or is deposed? From my reading of the article, the post-war scenarios assume that Putin's policies will continue along the same trajectory. But, if Russia suffers a humiliating defeat (as defined by Russia's own war-hawks), it's a coin-flip as to whether he stays in power. And even a peaceful transfer of power isn't a guarantee of continuity. If Russia's economy is in bad shape, the new leader could decide to blame everything on Putin.

And then there's the matter of some of their conclusions about battlefield outcomes, most notably regarding Crimea. I certainly don't have a crystal ball but I would certainly advise against making categorical statements. Right now, for example, Ukraine is mounting a counter-offensive in the South (Kherson and Nova Kakhovka areas). One possible result is that they could regain control over the primary source of water for all of Crimea. That may not be the same as retaking the entire peninsula, but it's nothing to sneeze at and would have a dramatic effect on the calculus of any subsequent negotiation.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...222022657.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...217876483.html

There are at least some military observers saying that one objective of the battle around Severodonetsk is to keep Russian forces from reinforcing the South. Maybe Ukraine will push to control the water source, or maybe they'll use it primarily to force Russia to defend on yet another front. I have no idea, but I'm closely watching developments in the Kherson area.

So my only real point is that war, and especially this one, is full of "unknown unknowns," which I wish more pundits and analysts would acknowledge when writing their articles.

[Jmsuttr]

Here are the two American mercenaries. They have no protection under the Geneva Convention and will most likely be sentenced to death by firing squad which is a shame as that is a military send off. Keep their victims in your prayers.

I'm a little worried the uptick in Covid will damage my vacation plans. That is none of their concern as they don't catch Covid in hell.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...forces-battle/

https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/16/vladi...ulge-16837200/

He's probably a heartbeat (literally) away from some kind of debilitating medical event. In fact, one report I saw said he needed the immediate attention of his doctors at the end of a recent video meeting. And that's the probable explanation for the sudden cancellation of his scheduled "Direct Line" (live Q&A) broadcast.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/10/putin...ness-16802687/

A lot of people have already died in this war, and unfortunately that's not close to ending. And it's an absolute fact that the blood of everyone killed is on Putin's hands, they are all victims of the evil megalomaniacal dictator. Which is why it would be the truest poetic justice if he becomes the highest profile casualty of the very war he started.

But there are two big questions about what happens when Putin croaks. 1) Will the elites manage a smooth transition or start stabbing each other in the back? 2) Will they put his corpse on display like Lenin, or hang him upside down like Mussolini?

[Jojosun]

Nothing heroic about fighting in an Illegal and Cowardly invasion of a sovereign state bombarding its cities and killing innocent civilians. Putin and his field commanders should be held responsible.

Nor was that Massive invasion of Iraq which Farty Joe supported and helped to mislead public opinion about it. "More than 4,500 US soldiers, and nearly as many US military contractors, lost their lives; tens of thousands were wounded, with hundreds of thousands more suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. Estimates of Iraqi deaths run as high as 1 Million". https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-role-iraq-war.

BTW, 19 Ukrainian Soldiers were also killed in Iraq, Sent there by Kuchma.

https://www.army.mil/article/15056/u...ission_in_iraq

Putin&Biden got Blood on their hands, But of course Putin has the biggest share.

And another thing, who in Russia would be able to square up to Putin in public and give him a piece of his mind in a similar way this Brave American Veteran confronted Biden! Urlreplacement0}.

[PedroMorales]

Here are the two American mercenaries. They have no protection under the Geneva Convention and will most likely be sentenced to death by firing squad which is a shame as that is a military send off. Keep their victims in your prayers.

I'm a little worried the uptick in Covid will damage my vacation plans. That is none of their concern as they don't catch Covid in hell.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...forces-battle/

[Jmsuttr]

Russia's heroic forces have captured two American mercenaries. The penalty for mercenaries is death. No Geneva Convention applies, just like the Americans used no Geneva Convention in their war crimes. I think we can all agree they are getting off far too lightly.

All you do is constantly regurgitate the propaganda emanating from LilliPutin's bunghole.

The fact that foreigners are flocking to Ukraine to fight against the Orc Hordes is a CREDIT to Ukraine. These are people who left their comfortable lives for a noble purpose.

In point of fact, there are volunteer fighters from at least 52 countries fighting against Putin's fascists:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...al-legion.html

And, when it comes to Russia, they are so desperate for soldiers that they removed the upper age limit for service and are also recalling people who already retired from the military.

Here's one notable example where a 63 year old retired Orc general was shot down and killed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...shot-down.html

I guess he should have stayed in his dacha. Or maybe figured out a way to escape the sinking Russian ship, like so many other rats have already done.

[Jojosun]

Russia's heroic forces have captured two American mercenaries. The penalty for mercenaries is death. No Geneva Convention applies, just like the Americans used no Geneva Convention in their war crimes. I think we can all agree they are getting off far too lightly.

Nothing heroic about fighting in an Illegal and Cowardly invasion of a sovereign state bombarding its cities and killing innocent civilians. Putin and his field commanders should be held responsible.

Nor was that Massive invasion of Iraq which Farty Joe supported and helped to mislead public opinion about it. "More than 4,500 US soldiers, and nearly as many US military contractors, lost their lives; tens of thousands were wounded, with hundreds of thousands more suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. Estimates of Iraqi deaths run as high as 1 Million". https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-role-iraq-war.

BTW, 19 Ukrainian Soldiers were also killed in Iraq, Sent there by Kuchma.

https://www.army.mil/article/15056/u...ission_in_iraq

[PedroMorales]

Russian propaganda proves to be some stupid shit:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61757667.amp

Spouting stupid BBC shit. If granny did not back track, your Nazi pals, egged on by the BBC, would put one in her ear.

[Golfinho]

Russia's heroic forces have captured two American mercenaries. The penalty for mercenaries is death. No Geneva Convention applies, just like the Americans used no Geneva Convention in their war crimes. I think we can all agree they are getting off far too lightly.

Death? Is that really fair? The Americans only stuck their captives in Abu Gharabi, Guantanamo and who's knows where rendition sites without trials or recourse for the rest of their lives.

[PedroMorales]

Russia's heroic forces have captured two American mercenaries. The penalty for mercenaries is death. No Geneva Convention applies, just like the Americans used no Geneva Convention in their war crimes. I think we can all agree they are getting off far too lightly.

[Jojosun]

[QUOTE=Jojosun;.

Fine talk about reducing emissions, LOL "he is supposed to be committed to reducing emissions but when President Joe Biden produced a little natural gas of his own at the COP26 summit, it was audible enough to make the Duchess of Cornwall blush. ".

[URL]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10172959/Camilla-stopped-talking-hearing-President-break-wind-chat-Cop26-summit.html[/URL]

The "Sleepy Joe" doze off https://news.sky.com/video/cop26-joe...video-12457263.

Come 2024 ,he'll be Gone With The Wind. / QUOTE].

Biden's big gas crises is taking him to Saudi. Hope he doesn't do Another " long and loud and impossible to ignore" Fart, when he bends the Knee in front of MBS.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...g-saudi-arabia