Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[WyattEarp]

China is happy to engage in any alliance it can dominate. Russia is now a de facto subjugated vassal state, full stop. While it's useful to portray it as a "partnership," Xi controls the puppet-strings and can pull them however and whenever he wants. If Putin should ever balk at a Chinese "request," Xi can just cut the lifeline and watch as Russia sinks and drowns. So by all means fill your head with fanciful notions of supposed positive benefits. The Chinese will be quite content to wait patiently for their payment. And it's certain to be a big one.

I found this interesting commentary in regards to Biden saying Putin "cannot remain in power."

Per Holman Jenkins in the Wall Street Journal: "My one disappointment was that China didn't pipe up to say, "No, Mr. Putin must remain in power," to emphasize just how thoroughly the Russian leader, through his own blunders, has reduced himself to a rag doll being fought over by nations that actually matter."

[Jmsuttr]

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/new...ment-shortage/

https://www.securitylab.ru/news/530708.php (article is in Russian but will automatically translate if using Chrome browser).

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/e...ve-in-a-month/

Notice that the reported numbers (170,000 estimated) come from Russian sources. And, even though those sources are trying to put a positive spin on things (it's only temporary), you can read between the lines and see the desperation.

Also, anyone who understands tech people knows that they generally have a pretty extensive network of likeminded friends and colleagues. That means, for each person who leaves and is able to establish themselves outside Russia, that will provide an example to others in their network and may incentivize them to make a similar move. And tech people are smart enough to see through the empty (or temporary) government promises being rolled out to persuade them to stay.

In most of the articles I've read about the effects of sanctions, not enough attention (IMO) is being paid to this phenomenon. And, the longer the war continues, the more brain-drain will likely occur and the more long-lasting the damage to the Russian economy is likely to be.

[Tomasb]

Troll / troll / troll.

like x partan or whatever the dog's name is, you are an american simpleton. His job here is to litter stupid shit and american women / politics threads with his cliches. Guess what. Russia is winning in ukraine. The nazis is mariupol have been vanquished. The russian / chinese alliance is strong and all you have is zelensky, a transvestite clown (look up the videos) who got to act as a president in a tv show and now gets to act the part.

Anyone in europe paying attention. A small percentage in any country. Sees what is going on. Four million ukrainian women and children off loaded on us, inflation, unemployment etc. As europe impales itself, a big reaction is brewing. The american tank is running on empty and soon the bill falls due.

One more thing, you moron. Russia is not a communist country though the cp, not that pussy riot american shill, are the main opposition.

To repeat: You are american and therefore stupid. Look up the futility of arguing with fools.

[Jmsuttr]

Russia is winning in Ukraine.

No one who has a clue about history declares a winner before hostilities end, and winning any particular battle does not equate to winning the war. Anyone looking at the early years of WW-II would have thought an Axis victory to be inevitable. It didn't turn out that way, did it? BTW, here's an hours-old article citing Putin's demand for Mariupol to surrender, which makes it clear it hasn't yet happened. In the future you might want to double-check with your master before making premature pronouncements.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60926470

It's also quite revealing that you conveniently ignore Putin's utter failure to take Kyiv. In fact, the many military failures have been obvious to all (except Putin butt-kissers). Not only failures, but also desertions and refusals to fight, have shown the Russian military "machine" to be poorly engineered, poorly maintained, and vastly overrated.

The Russian / Chinese alliance is strong

China is happy to engage in any alliance it can dominate. Russia is now a de facto subjugated vassal state, full stop. While it's useful to portray it as a "partnership," Xi controls the puppet-strings and can pull them however and whenever he wants. If Putin should ever balk at a Chinese "request," Xi can just cut the lifeline and watch as Russia sinks and drowns. So by all means fill your head with fanciful notions of supposed positive benefits. The Chinese will be quite content to wait patiently for their payment. And it's certain to be a big one.

Oh, and what do you think will happen if pressure is brought to bear such that China is forced to choose between Russia and Western markets? Buh-bye Russia, do svidaniya Putin!

The American tank is running on empty and soon the bill falls due.

It might be one of your wet-dreams that the American tank is running on empty but, as usual, you haven't provided a shred of evidence to support your fantasy. As a matter of fact, America has a multitude of tanks, all fully fueled, and is sending more and more of them to Europe.

https://www.militaryspot.com/news/co...ives-in-europe

More US tanks, more US troops, more US influence. And who was the cause of Europe's current uber-welcoming attitude toward America? Why, none other than Putin, Putin, Putin!

Look up the futility of arguing with fools.

In order to come to any conclusion with respect to argumentation, it's an indispensable requirement that one needs to have an understanding of what true argument entails. The elements of argumentation, namely logic, evidence, and sound reasoning, are as foreign to your nature as the truth is to Putin's. In their place you've substituted invective, ad hominem, and wishful thinking. Therefore it's fitting for me to close the circle of this post by making reference to the subject line.

Oh yes, and let me remind you that I couldn't care less whether you read this post, or not. My sole purpose is to point out how vapid and lame your pseudo-arguments are. I'll let forum members read and decide for themselves, but you've thoroughly established yourself as a quintessentially pro-Putin, anti-America, broken record troll. And there is literally nothing you can say that will prevent me from dissecting every one of your posts and exposing their hatefulness, emptiness, and complete lack of foundation.

[Jmsuttr]

Chubais was more than an "advisor" to Putin. Chubais is one of the main creators of Putin. His cast a decisive vote (allegedly) when a small group of Russian oligarchs made Putin a heir apparent to Boris Yeltsin back in 1997.

Having said that, I wouldn't read too much into Chubais' "defection". I've read that 300,000 Russians have fled the country in the last month alone, so you don't have to be sly Chubais to know that Russia is poison right now, and this is not going to change any time soon, no matter what they do (or don't do) next.

Is because I was sure there would be different opinions as to how close Chubais was to Putin, and the center of power. But that discussion is not terribly relevant because, whether at the very center or a bit further out, it's inarguably true that he was a member of the elite echelon.

And that very fact, membership in the elite ranks, makes his defection qualitatively different from (assuming your numbers are correct) any of the hundreds of thousands of rank-and-file Russians who have also left. Among the pro-Putin segment of the population, what elites say and do commands a high degree of attention. They may not care if tens of thousands of the youngest and brightest are leaving, viewing them as traitors and scum, but someone like Chubais is bound to raise questions.

Why? Because elites are at the top of the food chain when it comes to status, power, money, etc. They have it all, so why would one of them choose to leave all that behind? Chubais was, as I understand it, an outstanding example of a loyal servant of the regime. His sudden departure has got to be difficult to process for many, and a bitter pill for the Kremlin to swallow. And how will other elites react? That's difficult to say because they're all individuals. But elites pay close attention to such events because they're always looking out for their own survival, shifts in the power structure, and how they can maintain or improve their own status. So it's my gut feeling that, although done in hushed whispers, there must be a heightened level of chatter among some in the privileged class. It won't surprise me if more defections happen. Of course, if they plan and execute well, we won't know until after it's happened.

I've been following the news looking for further explanation, or comment, or condemnation, by the Russian govt. I haven't seen anything and, even if I missed seeing an article, you'd think that any communication from the Kremlin would be repeated and analyzed by others. As of now, it seems like the departure of Chubais is being given the silent treatment. That silence, in and of itself, deserves further discussion and analysis, but that's a topic worthy of a separate post.

[VinDici]

Look up the futility of arguing with fools.

I could not agree more.

[WyattEarp]

Like X Partan or whatever the dog's name is, you are an American simpleton. His job here is to litter stupid shit and American Women / Politics threads with his cliches. Guess what. Russia is winning in Ukraine. The Nazis is Mariupol have been vanquished. The Russian / Chinese alliance is strong and all you have is Zelensky, a transvestite clown (look up the videos) who got to act as a President in a TV show and now gets to act the part.

Anyone in Europe paying attention. A small percentage in any country. Sees what is going on. Four million Ukrainian women and children off loaded on us, inflation, unemployment etc. As Europe impales itself, a big reaction is brewing. The American tank is running on empty and soon the bill falls due.

One more thing, you moron. Russia is not a Communist country though the CP, not that Pussy Riot American shill, are the main opposition.

To repeat: you are American and therefore stupid. Look up the futility of arguing with fools.

Pedro,

If you are a Russian, I pray for your country.

If you are an Islamist, I pray for your women.

If you are a Marxist, that ship sailed a long time ago. Today's Russia isn't anywhere close to being Marxist.

[PedroMorales]

I refer you to my previous summary regarding Comrade Morales, which is now known as "The Vindici Code" LOL.

Like X Partan or whatever the dog's name is, you are an American simpleton. His job here is to litter stupid shit and American Women / Politics threads with his cliches. Guess what. Russia is winning in Ukraine. The Nazis is Mariupol have been vanquished. The Russian / Chinese alliance is strong and all you have is Zelensky, a transvestite clown (look up the videos) who got to act as a President in a TV show and now gets to act the part.

Anyone in Europe paying attention. A small percentage in any country. Sees what is going on. Four million Ukrainian women and children off loaded on us, inflation, unemployment etc. As Europe impales itself, a big reaction is brewing. The American tank is running on empty and soon the bill falls due.

One more thing, you moron. Russia is not a Communist country though the CP, not that Pussy Riot American shill, are the main opposition.

To repeat: you are American and therefore stupid. Look up the futility of arguing with fools.

[VinDici]

"Most likely"? Wow...

...Imbecile!

I refer you to my previous summary regarding Comrade Morales, which is now known as "The Vindici Code" LOL.

This guy is totally unhinged and removed from reality.

[Xpartan]

You are most likely a moron.

You mock Putin, whose father fought the Nazis but you use a nazi name.

"Most likely"? Wow! You're giving him a benefit of a doubt, ain't you a prince!

Well, I'm not a prince, so I'll give it to you straight. You ARE a moron.

Who gives a fuck that Putin's father fought the Nazis? Of course he fought the Nazis, every man in the USSR fought the Nazis. How does it absolve his homicidal son?

Imbecile!

[Xpartan]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ficial-resigns

Before getting into a discussion of this event's significance, if anyone takes exception to the "sinking ship" characterization, I would simply point out that it doesn't matter what you or I think, it only matters what Chubais thinks. As someone who's been in or around senior levels of govt for quite a while, he's obviously in a better position to know than anyone in this forum.

It's also noteworthy that previous Russian military "special operations," including prior incursions into Ukraine, never triggered such a response. Why now? My personal theory is that never has Russia faced such a severe and united backlash. And that Chubais is savvy enough to know that Russia faces a dim future for years to come. In other words, the ship may have suffered blows in the past, but it wasn't in danger of sinking the way it is now.

I haven't done a deep dive into his personal history, but he's described as having been an advisor to Putin. To me that means, at a minimum, that he was acceptable to Putin's circle of insiders and also seen as loyal and non-threatening. To have someone like that not only resign, but also leave the country, has got to be sending a few shockwaves through govt circles and potentially through the public at large.

It'll be interesting to see how the Kremlin handles this over the next few days. Will Chubais be portrayed as one of the "traitors and scum," or will the reaction be relatively low key? So far all I've seen is an acknowledgement that Chubais stepped down "on his own accord," without further comment.

One intriguing question is whether Chubais had an exit plan already laid out, or whether something changed recently that convinced him he needed to get out of Dodge ASAP? I'm leaning toward the former theory, as anyone with money and resources would be foolish not to have a full set of contingency plans.

It's a certainty that no official or media discussions that dwell on the negatives will be allowed. But I'll be keeping an eye out for signals of any possible ripple effects. If other prominent figures feel that the exit door might be slamming shut, who knows how they'll react? Interesting times!

Chubais was more than an "advisor" to Putin. Chubais is one of the main creators of Putin. His cast a decisive vote (allegedly) when a small group of Russian oligarchs made Putin a heir apparent to Boris Yeltsin back in 1997.

Having said that, I wouldn't read too much into Chubais' "defection". I've read that 300,000 Russians have fled the country in the last month alone, so you don't have to be sly Chubais to know that Russia is poison right now, and this is not going to change any time soon, no matter what they do (or don't do) next.

[YummyPL]

The difference is, that the "to be liberated" population even in Eastern UA, which is very based on Russia, is fighting their "liberators".

Free men fighting slaves.

[The Cane]

It's the 1939 Winter War all over again, which saw tiny Finland stop the mighty Russian aggressor, inflicting heavy losses and humiliation upon the Ruskie bear:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

[WyattEarp]

"Leftists in particular may think, when criticizing NATO expansion, that they are correcting their own or fellow citizens' biases as citizens of an imperial power that has often acted in bad faith. They may think they are adequately acknowledging this fraught legacy by focusing their critique on what they perceive to be Western expansionism. But they in fact perpetuate imperial wrongs when they continue to deny non-Western countries and their citizens agency in geopolitics. Paradoxically, the problem with American exceptionalism is that even those who challenge its foundational tenets and heap scorn on American militarism often end up recreating American exceptionalism by centering the United States in their analyses of international relations. It is, in Gregory Afinogenov's words, a 'form of provincialism that sees only the United States and its allies as primary actors. ' Speaking about Eastern Europe and Eastern Europeans without listening to local voices or trying to understand the region's complexity is a colonial projection."

Translation? The USSR fell, largely due to their own failures and inadequacies. A number of former countries from that sphere tasted freedom, enjoyed it, then asked for economic integration and protection from tyrants. Ignoring their agency while demonizing NATO is slanted analysis.

I agree that it is erroneous thinking to believe the Ukraine is a matter to be decided by the USA / NATO vis-a-vis Russia. The Ukrainians have agency and as a sovereign nation should have self-determination.

I think people forget that the Ukrainians quickly and overwhelmingly pursued independence after the Soviet Union dissolved.

Per Wikipedia:

"Voters were asked "Do you support the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine?" The text of the Declaration was included as a preamble to the question. The referendum was called by the Parliament of Ukraine to confirm the Act of Independence, which was adopted by the Parliament on 24 August 1991. Citizens of Ukraine expressed overwhelming support for independence. In the referendum, 31,891,742 registered voters (or 84.18% of the electorate) took part, and among them 28,804,071 (or 92.3%) voted "Yes.""

After approximately 250 plus years of Russian domination and control, the Ukrainians amazingly maintained their identity and never really warmed to Russia. The Czars and then the Soviets fucked up the development of all the empire from brutal oppression and mismanagement.

[WyattEarp]

Forgot to repost your link, but it's fair to say that Mearsheimer goes further than your analysis, as he places blame for Putin at the feet of NATO. That's neither pragmatic (real politik) or real for the reasons stated in my prior post. And as to you saying that the West needs to back away from "unflinching support for democracy and human rights in certain parts of the world," well it's impossible for us to back away from a place we've never been. "Unflinching" support" would mean direct military intervention in Ukraine, where nukes off the table we'd mop up Russia in short order. We've never had any plans to do that, but we are projecting strength which is important when dealing with war criminals like Putin. We have the world's largest military and economy, and we set the terms, not Putin. He can use nukes assuming the order is carried out, but that's suicide. The more pressure that is put on him the greater the chances his own people will remove him. He's not only bad for the world but for them as well.

I do not share Mearsheimer's views on the Ukraine. I used it as an example of the multiple viewpoints that are circulating Western media. I've heard some Fox News commentators have been criticized for not wanting to getting further involved in the Ukraine war. I heard a business commentator saying isolating the Russian economy was self-defeating. Anyway, the point is that the West has a myriad of media perspectives because we have freedom of speech.

I think Mearsheimer's POV is important to consider though. It harks back to the Cold War struggle between the USA And Soviet Union. For several reasons, this is not a great global struggle between two superpowers with opposing ideologies. However, the Russian nuclear arsenal makes for some of the same strategy considerations. Already, we have this tentative (as you point out) physical support for the Ukraine. How much can the West support the Ukraine without provoking Russia? Ground-based anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons are okay, but Polish MiG's are not. Putin has the diabolic advantage of what we use to joke about with Reagan in the 1980's. He is a crazy, motherfucker and you don't know how he will react.

To paraphrase the late Senator John McCain, Russia is a gas station with a pissed off, violent gas station attendant masquerading as a country.

As far as "realpolitik", Russia cannot project its power as far off and as extensively as the Soviets. However, we are already seeing realpolitik in play. It seems the USA Wants to speed up a reconciliation with Iran and get their oil back into Western petroleum markets. The USA Likely backs off criticizing Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Mideastern countries for human rights. The USA Is already dancing with India's Modi.