Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Elusive]

Yeah, the concept that Putin was right all along (which is what the article was about) looks more and more clear. I do not think the Western Press has expressed the Russian POV very well, and I am not even sure this article got into it. All you hear in the Western Press is Putin is a mad man and they highlight whenever a Russian mentions being anti-war.

My understanding is Putin felt surrounded, and that was what the Atlantic mentioned victory in Ukraine would be, a surrounded Russia. I was told that Russia had only 2 of the 9 traditional choke points against an invasion and now are in control of 5 of the 9. In addition ethnic Russians were being tortured and killed in Donbas and water was being cut off to Crimea. Add in Ukraine being in the EU and Nato, the coup of 2014, and Russiagate where the Dems demonized Putin unfairly and Ukrainegate which showed the Dems had a stranglehold in Ukraine, and far from Putin being a mad man, I can see why he felt the need for a pre-emptive strike. He is a bully but I do not see him as irrational.

Putin is a guy who took over for Yeltsin who was a drunk and ruled at a time Russians were starving. Say you what you want about him ethically, but he gets the trains to run on time almost as well as any Russian leader can. Yes, it is not a Democracy, but Russians have historically preferred a strong armed leader versus an elected one. This again is something most Westerners do not get.

The hysteria has died down. No, Russia does not look like it is going to blow up everything in sight and stop at taking areas of Ukraine where there is a predominantly Russian population. He has shown no desire to March to the English Channel as some have mentioned. The return on the $40 billion the USA has sent to Ukraine may as well have been lit on fire for all the good it will do, and our nation is suffering with higher oil and gas prices and higher food prices.

Here are two pieces which show the diametrically opposed positions: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...infrastructure.

As residents are hopeful that the crisis finally resolves Saturday, it's worth noting the irony in billions of taxpayer dollars currently being sent to places like Odessa, Ukraine. Even as Americans in places like Odessa, Texas can't even get drinkable water due to "ageing infrastructure".

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...pulations-nato

Top officials in the West warning their populations against "Ukraine fatigue", saying that 'sacrifices' must be made for the long-term despite the 'high costs' in blood and treasure of continuing to ramp up support for Ukraine. This time it's NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg making unusually blunt statements, addressing the common masses.

"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," he began by saying in an interview published Sunday by Germany's Bild am Sonntag newspaper. He stressed this should be the case "even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices. ".

Why do we have to help Ukraine? The whole notion that Russia was going to March onto the English Channel made no sense to me. So the French, UK, and USA are not going to nuke Russia if that happens? Since when?

The question I have for this NATO General is we know the defense industry gets a return on investing in war but do we the American people get such a return? That answer is not maybe but probably not and in that case, we should not keep committing. If a NATO country is invaded, that is another story. If you look at this economically, Putin was right. The benefit of defending Ukraine was not worth the cost.

Zero Hedge is not quite the BBC or Reuters in its reporting.

USA Accuses Zero Hedge of Spreading Russian Propaganda.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ian-propaganda#xj4 y7 vzkg.

Is Zero Hedge a Russian Trojan Horse?

https://newrepublic.com/article/1567...n-trojan-horse

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

[John Clayton]

...BTW, may be, Germany should request "repatriation" of Koenigsberg (actually: Kaliningrad)...

Also, how about Karelia and the Kuril islands?

[Reiner Otto]

Let's pray Kaliningrad fares well and that Vilnius does not get the mushroom cloud it deserves

Ah, I hear Putlers troll speaking. Since when is a independent state, like Luthania, obliged to allow any type of goods, even military, to transit its borders?

Only Putler might request this "natural right", based on military power. Unfortunately, Luthania is member of NATO, so its not so easy for him to enforce this "natural right".

BTW, may be, Germany should request "repatriation" of Koenigsberg (actually: Kaliningrad), because of being native German for more than 300 years.

Putler is invited to carry goods to Kaliningrad by air. Like the Americans did, during the blockage of Berlin by the Russians.

Or Putler might send ships. No blockage of Kaliningrads ports, like Putler does to the UA.

[Paulie97]

Let's pray Kaliningrad fares well and that Vilnius does not get the mushroom cloud it deserves from either China or Russia, as it has some nice architecture.

I see the two Yankee mercenaries (the Viet and the bio labs guy) are saying they are anti war. Walking corpses often are.

Let the Americans and Israelis troll on. Hopefully, the Lithuanians will get what they want and deserve.

There's prisoners of war on both sides as is the norm. Trades are possible. China isn't interested beyond lip service as Russia is a third rate buttboy, an economy the size of Texas. Push comes to shove they side with the Yanks. As you are a buttboy in a hooker forum, bend, grab your ankles and cringe. LOL.

[Paulie97]

I'm sorry, but I don't think you followed the context of my post as they relate to the posts referenced.

You get the benefit of the doubt as I agree with 90% of your content. Keep up the good work.

[PedroMorales]

Let's pray Kaliningrad fares well and that Vilnius does not get the mushroom cloud it deserves from either China or Russia, as it has some nice architecture.

I see the two Yankee mercenaries (the Viet and the bio labs guy) are saying they are anti war. Walking corpses often are.

Let the Americans and Israelis troll on. Hopefully, the Lithuanians will get what they want and deserve.

[WyattEarp]

I didn't realize that was the case. But I tend to be critical of most media, as a general rule, because there's so much shallow reporting out there. And for me the cardinal sin is the widespread reluctance of authors to be honest and humble about how much they don't know. It's as if they think their reputation will take a hit if they don't sound authoritative. Or maybe it's the fault of the editors or corporate managers? I don't know, but I think the opposite would be the case. I know I'd certainly respect them more..

I would concur with your take on today's journalism. It's moved far beyond reporting. Every journalist seems to be providing commentary. It doesn't matter if we are talking politics, economics, COVID or the war in the Ukraine. The media wants to be viewed as an authority on all matters.

As far as the future regardless of the war's resolution, Putin has put Russia in a very bad place for likely his remaining life. However, I am a cynical and critical American. I think there will be the usual rapprochement by the usual European countries sooner and more amicable than the USA And you. K. You can bet Poland and the Baltic states will not look past this Ukraine aggression anytime soon.

[WyattEarp]

That's completely irrelevant to the point, as no one in their right mind is thinking of going to the Ukraine or Russia now. But if you are out to give Golfinho a BJ then you need a different angle.

I'm sorry, but I don't think you followed the context of my post as they relate to the posts referenced.

[Paulie97]

What far right wing Americans have voiced support for Putin? It is better to say that we want to hold back on your wanton spending. That $40 billion in weapons money is going to get us nothing. How much "foreign aid" money to Ukraine ended up in Democratic coffers? You expect us to believe Hunter Biden was the only one? All you lefties were and are making bank demonizing Putin. If you are so anti-Putin, go volunteer to fight the Ruskies yourself.

Twerp there's no need to demonize Putin as he does it himself, attacking breadlines and maternity wards while executing people with their hands tied behind their backs in basements. As to me, if someone comes to my neighborhood doing the same I'll take up arms. In the meantime I'll support our allies abroad in a similar predicament. Asking AARP members to become overseas mercenaries when they call out your unamerican isolationlist nonsense represents the Tu Quoque fallacy which is another take on the Ad hominem. Only 11 Republican senators were against the latest aid package, no Dem so you are off on the fringes where you belong.

https://www.thoughtco.com/tu-quoque-...allacy-1692568

P.S. As to Hunter's laptop, that one is filed away with your 2000 Mules, ballots on Chinese paper, Hillary's emails, Barak's birth certificate, lock her up, stop the steal, John Durham, and the array of Covid conspiracy theories you suckers have been pitching for two years. The one grifting in Ukraine is Trump, caught on tape withholding taxpayer funds for personal favors.

[Jmsuttr]

Let me clarify. I said all predictions on this war are specious. As far as you making predictions, I can't recall if you specifically did or didn't. I do however think you might be more optimistic for the post-war outcome than I am. My opinion on that can change and most certainly will as time and things progress with the battle, the Russian economy, the global economy and the diplomatic front. (Note: I am not in camp with the pro-Russian or anti-Ukrainian crowd.).

Since I think Foreign Affairs tries to be somewhat objective, let me give you some further background on the article I posted. It was titled "What If Ukraine Wins?" It was a part of a multi article set. The other titles are "What If Russia Loses?" "What if Russia Wins?" "What If Russia Makes a Deal? And "What If the War in Ukraine Doesn't End?" So Foreign Affairs does try to look at all the possibilities for an outcome. I will have to admit they take a relatively pessimistic tone in all the possibilities.

I think you have laid out above the poor scenarios for Russia nicely. I don't have any disagreement there.

I didn't realize that was the case. But I tend to be critical of most media, as a general rule, because there's so much shallow reporting out there. And for me the cardinal sin is the widespread reluctance of authors to be honest and humble about how much they don't know. It's as if they think their reputation will take a hit if they don't sound authoritative. Or maybe it's the fault of the editors or corporate managers? I don't know, but I think the opposite would be the case. I know I'd certainly respect them more.

Think about it in terms of historical wars. How often did the learned pundits and analysts, writing in the early stages of those wars, get it right? In the Civil War, for example, the early advantages were held by the South as Lee was more advance-minded and McLellan was more on the back foot. So, anyone writing before the 2nd Battle of Bull Run, to pick one milestone, would have been justified in being pessimistic about the Union's prospects.

In WW-II, Allied butt was being royally kicked by the Axis for most of the early stages of the war. Of course, most US media coverage was of the patriotic cheerleader variety, but I'm sure serious analysts had deep concerns regarding the course of the war. But did any pundit or analyst accurately predict that Hitler would try something like Operation Barbarossa, and thereby squander his advantage?

Maybe I've missed a war or particular pundit in which accurate predictions took place. I'll happily admit to that, if such an example exists. But it seems to me that the record of wartime analysts is about as good as those who make economic projections, which is to say not very good. Don't get me wrong, they're great at pointing out things to watch out for, and also for explaining things that have already happened. But the sheer number of dynamic variables involved in a wartime scenario makes it a daunting challenge.

As for my optimism, it's simply based on my assessment of how tidal forces are currently flowing. One prime example is that I think there's been a paradigm shift in how the world views Russia, and what that means for geopolitical relationships going forward. Putin-Dora's Box has been opened, with all the hatefulness and evil revealed, and there's no closing it again. Putin could order a stop to the fighting, and withdraw his forces from Ukraine, but that wouldn't return us to the status quo ante. They've crossed the Rubicon and will be (rightly) perceived as a threat, and NOT as a partner, for decades (or generations) to come. And I think that new reality will create even more alliances in Europe and beyond as a necessary protective counterbalance. Of course there will be bumps in the road, but I think things will come together, not because of altruistic motives, but because of legitimate security concerns. It'll be messy but I think the West (NATO, EU, etc.) will figure it out. OTOH, I don't see any realistic scenario by which Russia avoids pariah status and a significantly more isolated existence than before. And that's a tidal force I see that's flowing inexorably in a negative direction for Russia.

[Paulie97]

Very well said.

The United States and Britain significantly supplying the Russians is an interesting fact that even Stalin and Khrushchev admonished as a major cause for their victory.

I fast forward to today and it would appear Russian military equipment is not a match for Western equipment. Russia's relative isolation and its failure to modernize in a deep sense has always limited the country.

US and British re-supply on their back channel was essential or else the thorough ass whooping of the Russos would have been completed.

[Paulie97]

Easy Cowboy. Don't bite the forum that feeds everyone. This is the International Sex Guide.

Similar to me challenging Golfinho awhile back on his post that Americans take their strong currency to buy cheap, third world pussy, we shouldn't criticize the forum and its members inadvertently or not.

That's completely irrelevant to the point, as no one in their right mind is thinking of going to the Ukraine or Russia now. But if you are out to give Golfinho a BJ then you need a different angle.

[Jmsuttr]

At the recent St. Petersburg Int'l Economic Forum (SPIEF) Kazakhstan President Tokayev raised eyebrows when he said his country would refuse to recognize the separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Here's the link and quote:

https://en.trend.az/casia/kazakhstan/3610762.html

"It has been calculated that if the right of a nation to self-determination is organized throughout the globe, instead of the 193 states that are now members of the UN, more than 500-600 states will appear on earth. It will be chaos. For this reason, we do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia. Apparently, this principle will also be applied to quasi-state structures, which, in our opinion, are Lugansk and Donetsk. This is a frank answer to your frank question".

And, in another discordant note, Tokayev refused to accept an award (Order of Alexander Nevsky) from Russia. Putin is reportedly furious at this show of disrespect, especially since the SPIEF was hosted by Russia. And the same reports state that Putin is planning consequences (preparing "gifts") in response.

https://newsfounded.com/ukraineeng/t...-answer-unian/

Two additional reports state that Russia has placed restrictions on flows of Kazakh oil through a pipeline and that Kazakhstan may be responding by blocking railcars full of Russian coal. Take these last two reports with a grain of salt, as they're still awaiting verification by more established news sources. But still, everything taken as a whole seems to suggest that all is not rosy in LilliPutin's own backyard.

https://intellinews.com/face-to-face...ublics-248002/

"Indeed, one of the first developments in relation to Russia and Kazakhstan that occurred on June 17, shortly after Tokayev's words, was an announcement that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) would be periodically halting oil shipments in order to allow the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry to defuse around 50 WWII era mines it had found on the Black Sea seabed. Kazakhstan relies significantly on the CPC infrastructure for oil exports".

https://thesaxon.org/kazakhstan-bloc...an-coal-media/

"Authorities of Kazakhstan decided to block 1700 wagons with Russian coal on their territory. The Telegram channel "We Can Explain" writes about this with reference to its sources".

Again, some of the above reporting needs additional verification, but that won't be easy since I doubt either Russia or Kazakhstan will want to discuss any problems. But it certainly seems like something to keep an eye on and, though it may not result in any major change to the situation, it's an example of one of those "under the radar" variables that no one's really discussed or analyzed. Or, if they have, I haven't seen it yet.

[Jmsuttr]

Easy Cowboy. Don't bite the forum that feeds everyone. This is the International Sex Guide.

Similar to me challenging Golfinho awhile back on his post that Americans take their strong currency to buy cheap, third world pussy, we shouldn't criticize the forum and its members inadvertently or not.

As I noted, I've made extensive use of the US-centric site. I was just responding to the asinine insinuation that one's number of posts has any relevance to the content of those posts. Poor Pedrito has really taken to scraping the bottom of the barrel in his futile attempts to attack me. His latest bleatings truly reek of desperation.

[WyattEarp]

While I'm absolutely pro-Ukraine in sentiment, I've done my best to focus on what's actually happening, not on what "should" happen or even what I want to happen. If you can indicate the post, or posts, of mine in which I cross the line into prediction territory, please share.

It seems to me that I'm the loudest voice in this forum shouting that predictions are a fool's errand, as this war is unique in many aspects and there are too many variables, known and unknown. In fact, that's the very criticism I level against your article, is it not?

My personal feelings aside, any optimism I've expressed is generally based on optimistic developments, such as arms commitments and other support measures for Ukraine, or the recent granting of EU candidate status. Any such developments that help Ukraine sustain their war effort are positive things, and I'm not shy about pointing them out.

If, however, support for Ukraine started to fade, or other developments with long-term negative implications occurred, I would discuss those honestly. To this point I would assert that the weight of the evidence leans in a positive direction for Ukraine. And, as I've also posted numerous times, I do my best to focus on the tides, rather than waves or ripples..

Let me clarify. I said all predictions on this war are specious. As far as you making predictions, I can't recall if you specifically did or didn't. I do however think you might be more optimistic for the post-war outcome than I am. My opinion on that can change and most certainly will as time and things progress with the battle, the Russian economy, the global economy and the diplomatic front. (Note: I am not in camp with the pro-Russian or anti-Ukrainian crowd.).

Since I think Foreign Affairs tries to be somewhat objective, let me give you some further background on the article I posted. It was titled "What If Ukraine Wins?" It was a part of a multi article set. The other titles are "What If Russia Loses?" "What if Russia Wins?" "What If Russia Makes a Deal? And "What If the War in Ukraine Doesn't End?" So Foreign Affairs does try to look at all the possibilities for an outcome. I will have to admit they take a relatively pessimistic tone in all the possibilities.

I think you have laid out above the poor scenarios for Russia nicely. I don't have any disagreement there.