Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Golfinho]

That's like the old PeeWee Herman schtick where he says "I meant to do that" after a huge fall. There's not a single credible military strategist or analyst who believes that, not even in places like Hungary and Serbia that support Russia. What kind of a feint costs thousands of soldiers' lives and hundreds of pieces of irreplaceable equipment? And I say irreplaceable because Russia is having to close military factories that produce tanks and missiles due to lack of components. Thank you Western sanctions!

But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.

As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.

The excuse it was a feint was an illustration of propaganda. You bought the feint. See how that works.

This war is just getting started. It took the USA nineteen years to conquer mountain tribals in Afghanistan, and a dozen to have victory with honor over Vietnamese peasants.

[WyattEarp]

..........And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.

If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!

We cannot get any agreement on what is actually happening from Golfinho or Pedro. They are choosing to reiterate Russian media which is now essentially controlled by the government. Doesn't matter that we in the West have no restrictions on speech and we have dissent even on the Ukraine war.

Perhaps if we play out future scenarios and try to nail them down on what would be considered a loss for Russia, we won't have them droning on about Russia's martial capabilities and it prerogatives. Wouldn't Putin being removed from power be a major loss resulting from this conflict? Withdrawal from the Eastern Ukraine? Finland and Sweden joining NATO? A win for Russia would be the removal of almost all sanctions and the occupation of the Eastern Ukraine.

My fear is that Putin's Russia will dig in and occupy the Eastern Ukraine for an extended period and try to destabilize the rest of the country. No winner, no loser. Just stagnation and attrition on both sides. Nothing is resolved. Sanctions maintained indefinitely.

[Cons68]

That Russia will eventually "win" this war is almost a certainty, size matters.

That Putin survives this "victory" is far from clear, hey, that Russia itself survives is far from clear.

I think Putin knows, on a "big picture" level, how bad things are going. He's never been stupid, and I don't subscribe to the irrational or delusional theory. That's because, if he was truly in such a state, that would be seen as mental weakness and, even to those most loyal, unfitness to lead and a danger to Russia.

Consider this: If Putin was irrational (and thought he was winning), it's more likely he would pull forces from Eastern Ukraine to move against Kyiv, rather than the reverse. If he could have taken Kyiv, and killed or captured Zelensky (or caused him to flee), he could have declared victory no matter what happened in the rest of the country. Kyiv and "denazification" success were the big prizes.

That tells me he's rational enough to recognize that Kyiv is out of reach. So now he's desperately trying to find something he can spin as a victory, especially by May 9th, and he's doubling down in the hope that something goes his way. About Putin's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, he has no choice but to put on a brave face, in the same way that he continues to show false bravado with threats against Sweden, Finland, etc. He's backed himself into a corner, with respect to both internal and external audiences, and currently has no off-ramp or exit.

Putin's biggest problem, and blind spot, is that he is almost certainly in the dark as to how bad things are on a granular level. He won't know, nor will anyone likely have the balls to tell him, how badly corruption has hollowed out his armed forces or how poorly his officers, soldiers, and equipment are performing. And the problem with doubling down is that, if all you have are shitty cards, you can keep playing them but still won't have a winning hand.

Switching to your favorite sports analogy, Putin's in the bottom of the 9th inning, or in extra time of a football match, or at the two-minute warning of an American football game. Options are few, and getting fewer, and time's running short. I can't say I have any great insight as to how things will play out, but here's an article with a few interesting observations and thoughts.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time...ail-mary-pass/

[Beijing4987]

Up to 10 available.

[Jmsuttr]

Propaganda Street runs both ways. The convoy parked outside Kiev was intended as a feint to keep Ukie troops fixed in place and not moved to the Donbas, you know, military strategy. And now The Comedien has his Ukronazis in Mariupol on no surrender notice: to keep the Z Force in place? Or in hopes they're eliminated and along with them nazism? Time will tell.

That's like the old PeeWee Herman schtick where he says "I meant to do that" after a huge fall. There's not a single credible military strategist or analyst who believes that, not even in places like Hungary and Serbia that support Russia. What kind of a feint costs thousands of soldiers' lives and hundreds of pieces of irreplaceable equipment? And I say irreplaceable because Russia is having to close military factories that produce tanks and missiles due to lack of components. Thank you Western sanctions!

But hey, if that's what your Kool-Aid drenched brain wants to believe, no worries. If that's a feint, let's have a few more, eh? Then pretty soon we'll have Spetznatz troops in defensive positions around Moscow and the official line will be that the "Special Operation" was a feint to keep foreign troops from marching on Russia.

As far Mariupol is concerned, how many times has Russian propaganda proclaimed "imminent victory" there? It's got to be driving Putin batshit crazy that his pitiful army has been stalled there for so long. As far as no surrender is concerned, any soldier is likely to choose death from a bullet or artillery shell rather than surrender to butchers and animals who are very likely to subject you to torture. And, as far as your "time will tell" comment, I would simply observe that time has been Ukraine's friend and Russia's mortal enemy. With each passing day the noose around Putin's neck tightens while Western aid to Ukraine increases.

If Putin's army fails in Eastern Ukraine as badly as they did in the North, Putin's own war hawks may very well figure out a way to dethrone him. After all, what good is a "strong man" leader who can't perform? Putin's army is in need of some kind of military Viagra, but their prescription's run out, and they have no refills left. Poor, poor, LilliPutin!

[Golfinho]

That you conform closely to the official Kremlin vocabulary is telling.

And what does "(the Christian ones)" mean here? Time to blame the Jews is it? The Jewish Nazis? You think Zelenskyy is a Jewish Nazi?

You haven't been paying attention. The Zionist state extended offer to Ukrainians to relocate to its territories, that is Jewish Ukrainians only. Official Zionist vocabulary.

[Golfinho]

The military drive toward Kyiv, and attempts at encirclement, are the real-world facts that demonstrate Putin's intent toward that city, which is the seat of government, and against the Zelensky administration itself. Even accepting your Russo-Puti-philic slant, there's no way to free Ukraine from "fascists" (as Russia self-interestedly defines them) or keep Ukraine "neutral" (I. E. , a Russia-dominated state) without getting rid of Zelensky and installing a pro-Putin puppet. As I posted previously, if Putin had been successful at Kyiv he would have been crowing about it and Russian media would have been cheering their dominance and victory. But, after his army's utter failure and humiliating retreat, Putin is desperate to find a face-saving alternative solution.

As far as Putler's current objectives are concerned, the recent purges taking place in military and FSB circles would certainly seem to indicate that, first and foremost, he's looking to ensure his hold on power. That'll be tricky since his military has racked up notable failure after notable failure and his harshest critics are those who are even more hawkish. Of course, your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is Russian propaganda-excrement masquerading as regular excrement.

But hey, if LilliPutin needs to make a quick getaway, he could always hitch a ride on the flagship of his Black Sea Fleet, right? Actually, the fate of the Moskva is likely to foreshadow the future of Russia. Poor little Vlad will go down in history as having committed the ultimate geopolitical own-goal!

BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?

Propaganda Street runs both ways. The convoy parked outside Kiev was intended as a feint to keep Ukie troops fixed in place and not moved to the Donbas, you know, military strategy. And now The Comedien has his Ukronazis in Mariupol on no surrender notice: to keep the Z Force in place? Or in hopes they're eliminated and along with them nazism? Time will tell.

[Jmsuttr]

Presented without comment, the article speaks for itself:

https://tsarizm.com/news/eastern-eur...bility-status/

"The ruble is no longer a freely convertible currency," (former Finance Minister Alexei) Kudrin admitted Tuesday to journalists. Prior to late February, the ruble was one of the world's few dozen fully convertible currencies not even the Chinese renminbi enjoyed such a status, wrote The Bell.

Even Kudrin who is considered to be close to Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable to hide his disappointment. And it was deeply symbolic that it was Kudrin who was the first official to talk publicly about the end of the convertible currency era."

[Neurosynth]

You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.

Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.

That you conform closely to the official Kremlin vocabulary is telling.

And what does "(the Christian ones)" mean here? Time to blame the Jews is it? The Jewish Nazis? You think Zelenskyy is a Jewish Nazi?

[PedroMorales]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNiz...GrahamPhillips

I have some reservations about this. Two Brits, two cunts.

[Jmsuttr]

You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.

Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.

The military drive toward Kyiv, and attempts at encirclement, are the real-world facts that demonstrate Putin's intent toward that city, which is the seat of government, and against the Zelensky administration itself. Even accepting your Russo-Puti-philic slant, there's no way to free Ukraine from "fascists" (as Russia self-interestedly defines them) or keep Ukraine "neutral" (I. E. , a Russia-dominated state) without getting rid of Zelensky and installing a pro-Putin puppet. As I posted previously, if Putin had been successful at Kyiv he would have been crowing about it and Russian media would have been cheering their dominance and victory. But, after his army's utter failure and humiliating retreat, Putin is desperate to find a face-saving alternative solution.

As far as Putler's current objectives are concerned, the recent purges taking place in military and FSB circles would certainly seem to indicate that, first and foremost, he's looking to ensure his hold on power. That'll be tricky since his military has racked up notable failure after notable failure and his harshest critics are those who are even more hawkish. Of course, your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is Russian propaganda-excrement masquerading as regular excrement.

But hey, if LilliPutin needs to make a quick getaway, he could always hitch a ride on the flagship of his Black Sea Fleet, right? Actually, the fate of the Moskva is likely to foreshadow the future of Russia. Poor little Vlad will go down in history as having committed the ultimate geopolitical own-goal!

BTW, the fact that you sidle up to the psyop term "Special Operation" is another clear tell of how far up Putin's nether orifice you are. You really should arrange a meet with Pedro M, IRL. Maybe he could direct some of his "stock of wealth" your way?

[Golfinho]

Looking at the current state of affairs, it very much looks like Putin won't achieve his original goal of taking over Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to hold more Ukrainian territory than previously or will be forced to retreat to the pre-Feb 24th borders (or further).

You're confused over the intent of The Special Military Operation. President Putin has been clear from the outset: goal has been to free Ukraine from the fascists and to keep Ukraine neutral. Your confusion is understandable if all you've ingested is mainstream US and Western propaganda masquerading as news.

Will the objectives of the Special Military Operation change? Depends how determined USNato is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. So far, Ukraine lives (the Christian ones) aren't worth much to them.

[Jmsuttr]

My concern, as I suspect is yours and others, is that Putin is irrational and not in the right mind. If that's the case, hopefully there are rational actors close to him. Assholes nonetheless, but rational to some degree.

Austrian Chancellor Nehammer who recently met with Putin said Putin thinks he's winning the war. Perhaps that's Putin's game face. If Putin actually thinks he's winning the war, perhaps that's a good thing on some level. Maybe we don't want to see what happens when he figures out he is losing the war.

I think Putin knows, on a "big picture" level, how bad things are going. He's never been stupid, and I don't subscribe to the irrational or delusional theory. That's because, if he was truly in such a state, that would be seen as mental weakness and, even to those most loyal, unfitness to lead and a danger to Russia.

Consider this: If Putin was irrational (and thought he was winning), it's more likely he would pull forces from Eastern Ukraine to move against Kyiv, rather than the reverse. If he could have taken Kyiv, and killed or captured Zelensky (or caused him to flee), he could have declared victory no matter what happened in the rest of the country. Kyiv and "denazification" success were the big prizes.

That tells me he's rational enough to recognize that Kyiv is out of reach. So now he's desperately trying to find something he can spin as a victory, especially by May 9th, and he's doubling down in the hope that something goes his way. About Putin's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, he has no choice but to put on a brave face, in the same way that he continues to show false bravado with threats against Sweden, Finland, etc. He's backed himself into a corner, with respect to both internal and external audiences, and currently has no off-ramp or exit.

Putin's biggest problem, and blind spot, is that he is almost certainly in the dark as to how bad things are on a granular level. He won't know, nor will anyone likely have the balls to tell him, how badly corruption has hollowed out his armed forces or how poorly his officers, soldiers, and equipment are performing. And the problem with doubling down is that, if all you have are shitty cards, you can keep playing them but still won't have a winning hand.

Switching to your favorite sports analogy, Putin's in the bottom of the 9th inning, or in extra time of a football match, or at the two-minute warning of an American football game. Options are few, and getting fewer, and time's running short. I can't say I have any great insight as to how things will play out, but here's an article with a few interesting observations and thoughts.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/time...ail-mary-pass/

[WyattEarp]

I certainly share your concern, but any significant escalation, especially of the crazy variety, will demand an adequate justification, even if it's a fake one. He's already played most of the available conventional warfare cards with Ukraine. What's left? Chemical weapons, tactical nukes, or perhaps drastically ramping up long-distance bombs and missiles? But, even though he could order it on a whim, using any WMD option without a MAJOR (real or pretextual) provocation would almost certainly result in loss of external support (Germany, Hungary, India, and poss China) and internal Russian support from all but his most fervent followers. And he's already pushing most of his conventional chips to the middle of the table. If he starts raining even more missiles on Ukrainian cities, it's my guess Zelensky will start receiving more and more anti-missile systems. If Russian cruise missiles and planes are increasingly intercepted and shot down, Putin will lose even more face than he has already..

My concern, as I suspect is yours and others, is that Putin is irrational and not in the right mind. If that's the case, hopefully there are rational actors close to him. Assholes nonetheless, but rational to some degree.

Austrian Chancellor Nehammer who recently met with Putin said Putin thinks he's winning the war. Perhaps that's Putin's game face. If Putin actually thinks he's winning the war, perhaps that's a good thing on some level. Maybe we don't want to see what happens when he figures out he is losing the war.

[Jmsuttr]

My fear is that as the longer this drags out Putin will do something crazy out of frustration.

I certainly share your concern, but any significant escalation, especially of the crazy variety, will demand an adequate justification, even if it's a fake one. He's already played most of the available conventional warfare cards with Ukraine. What's left? Chemical weapons, tactical nukes, or perhaps drastically ramping up long-distance bombs and missiles? But, even though he could order it on a whim, using any WMD option without a MAJOR (real or pretextual) provocation would almost certainly result in loss of external support (Germany, Hungary, India, and poss China) and internal Russian support from all but his most fervent followers. And he's already pushing most of his conventional chips to the middle of the table. If he starts raining even more missiles on Ukrainian cities, it's my guess Zelensky will start receiving more and more anti-missile systems. If Russian cruise missiles and planes are increasingly intercepted and shot down, Putin will lose even more face than he has already.

Putin's other option is to try to goad a NATO country into crossing one of his imaginary "red lines," but nobody's taking the bait. He can huff and puff all he wants, but if he launches any kind of attack against Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics, etc. , he'll once again be branded the aggressor. And, since his conventional forces have shown themselves to be a joke, NATO could launch a retaliatory strike along conventional lines without crossing any nuke tripwires. Not that policymakers read ISG (or maybe they do?) But I would suggest something like sinking every single Russian naval vessel. Or maybe just every vessel in the Eurasian (Mediterranean, Black Sea, etc.) area. Something proportional, or just above that level, that bloodies his nose or breaks his kneecaps.

Getting back to the pretext problem, with every satellite and SIGINT resource trained on Russia, it's unlikely he can pull off a fake justification without being spotted and exposed. Even his most recent attempt (Ukrainian helo or shelling attack on Russian village) was quickly revealed as a fraud, since no UA forces were within range and a phone call intercept caught a Russian soldier talking about how the attack was being faked by their own forces. The Kremlin can make any claims they want, like they do with Bucha. But nobody believes them and that's likely to be the case if they tried to fake a justification big enough to support a major escalation.

Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, and war is uncertain, but I wanted to point out some potential obstacles Putin would need to overcome.