Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Xpartan]

America is to blame for this shtt show. The Democrats, the party of Orgy Island and small dick syndrome. Hunter Biden etc. Rusisans are pounding (with lead) the Nazis who are rotting on the streets for dogs to feed on. XPartan and others should take their tin foils off, put a tin hat on and join up.

As Scarlet O'Hara might have said: War over, the price of pussy is going to go sky high this year.

Deep breath, comrade. Deep breath.

[Xpartan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_7tA9lesNo

I recently found this video (about 10 minutes) in which Niall Ferguson (noted author and historian) gives his assessment. He specifically points the finger at mistakes made by Obama, Trump, Biden, and Merkel. I'm sure that list could be expanded but the point is that many bear a degree of responsibility. What percentage you choose to assign to any individual politician is really a subjective decision. But it was essentially a synergy of failures and they're all accountable for not doing enough to thwart Putin.

Even so, I keep coming back to my point that Putin was never going to be deterred because this is a crusade for him. It's always been a question of when, not if. And, if you took Merkel out of the equation and inserted a hardliner, or took Trump away and inserted Clinton, we'd still be arriving at the same place. The ONLY thing that would have stopped Putin is if he'd been deposed or killed, nothing else. Unfortunately, since Russia is a nuclear power, eliminating Putin (from the outside) has never been in the cards.

He's contradicting himself all the time. First he admits that Ukraine is a special project for Putin who's trying to restore the empire. Then in the same breath, he blames Biden for lifting objections to Nord 2 as if that emboldened Russia to invade. Makes no sense. That's not an analyses, that's a collection of soundbites.

[NRandom940]

What news I watch has not had media reports saying that Ukraine is winning. I watch major news orginzations like Reuters and BBC and there is not media reports saying that Ukraine is winning. None. I do not know where others get their news. All people are saying is that Ukrainians are putting up a better fight than Russian thought they would but not under any delusion that they are are winning. The foreign fighters who go there are doing so on moral grounds and I hope they have some understanding that what they will need to do is guerrilla warfare because that is what needs to be happening right now. Ukrainians cannot hope to match the Russians on convententional terms. No one I read is saying they are winning.

I was ultralight infantry and we studied guerrilla warfare. Yes I should not be armchair quarterbacking because I am not ont he ground, but I heard that the Ukraine military called for their forces to go guerrilla warfare. I was light infantry for 6 years. We studied and practiced how to operate and move in small groups to be undetected and then link up and do larger operations. Although that depends on woods for cover too. They need to send them some on-off road scooters, or dual sport motorcycles (muffle the shit out of them) and have a guy on the back with a rocket launcher. And do fast attack and stick and run techiniques. Smaller quicker agile groups can do damage with those Javelins (shoulder operated missile) we are sending them and some RPGs. They could do link up operations where 30 or 40 of them meet up near the Russian formation on On-off road dual sport motorcycles and hit them hard and then escape cross country throught the trees. If I was 20 years younger I would conisder going there myself.

One scenario that is likely in the future, and somewhat unsettling.

Russia will destroy Ukrainian forces in population centers and it will become a guerilla war (unless Ukraine signs Russia's peace terms). This guerilla war will only be kept alive by NATO countries supplying the guerrillas with weapons. This would leave Russia with no choice but to attack a NATO country directly.

I really think Putin may be senile and completely irrational.

[Mojo Bandit]

I didn't mean to offend anyone.

As I've said before, when we came we didn't expect Putin to invade. We just assumed he was talking nonsense. Now of course that he invaded, I am the first to admit we made a terrible decision. If my reports, help others that are stuck in the country or who may have even considered coming here then at least I helped one person.

I am sure there are many people who read this thread but don't reply that had the same idea as us and may even still be in the country.

To any foreign volunteer: do not believe the Ukrainian propaganda! The military situation in Ukraine is dire, the media will have you think that Ukraine is winning. That is not the case whatsoever! Please be careful.

What news I watch has not had media reports saying that Ukraine is winning. I watch major news orginzations like Reuters and BBC and there is not media reports saying that Ukraine is winning. None. I do not know where others get their news. All people are saying is that Ukrainians are putting up a better fight than Russian thought they would but not under any delusion that they are are winning. The foreign fighters who go there are doing so on moral grounds and I hope they have some understanding that what they will need to do is guerrilla warfare because that is what needs to be happening right now. Ukrainians cannot hope to match the Russians on convententional terms. No one I read is saying they are winning.

I was ultralight infantry and we studied guerrilla warfare. Yes I should not be armchair quarterbacking because I am not ont he ground, but I heard that the Ukraine military called for their forces to go guerrilla warfare. I was light infantry for 6 years. We studied and practiced how to operate and move in small groups to be undetected and then link up and do larger operations. Although that depends on woods for cover too. They need to send them some on-off road scooters, or dual sport motorcycles (muffle the shit out of them) and have a guy on the back with a rocket launcher. And do fast attack and stick and run techiniques. Smaller quicker agile groups can do damage with those Javelins (shoulder operated missile) we are sending them and some RPGs. They could do link up operations where 30 or 40 of them meet up near the Russian formation on On-off road dual sport motorcycles and hit them hard and then escape cross country throught the trees. If I was 20 years younger I would conisder going there myself.

[PedroMorales]

America is to blame for this shtt show. The Democrats, the party of Orgy Island and small dick syndrome. Hunter Biden etc. Rusisans are pounding (with lead) the Nazis who are rotting on the streets for dogs to feed on. XPartan and others should take their tin foils off, put a tin hat on and join up.

As Scarlet O'Hara might have said: War over, the price of pussy is going to go sky high this year.

[Jmsuttr]

And Obama's inability (or lack of desire) to adequately confront him back in 2014 was a profound and costly mistake.

But Trump's incessant, baffling and, quite frankly, nauseating bootlicking has certainly emboldened him to a huge degree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_7tA9lesNo

I recently found this video (about 10 minutes) in which Niall Ferguson (noted author and historian) gives his assessment. He specifically points the finger at mistakes made by Obama, Trump, Biden, and Merkel. I'm sure that list could be expanded but the point is that many bear a degree of responsibility. What percentage you choose to assign to any individual politician is really a subjective decision. But it was essentially a synergy of failures and they're all accountable for not doing enough to thwart Putin.

Even so, I keep coming back to my point that Putin was never going to be deterred because this is a crusade for him. It's always been a question of when, not if. And, if you took Merkel out of the equation and inserted a hardliner, or took Trump away and inserted Clinton, we'd still be arriving at the same place. The ONLY thing that would have stopped Putin is if he'd been deposed or killed, nothing else. Unfortunately, since Russia is a nuclear power, eliminating Putin (from the outside) has never been in the cards.

[Crusader560]

I just saw that Bolton said. If Trump would have won his re election. He would have pulled the USA out of NATO.

And that is what Putin wanted. So, he could put the USSR back together. WOW.

Blaming Trump for the actions of Putin is like blaming Biden for the botched Afghanistan withdrawal after a 20 year occupation. Or Blaming Trump or Biden for Americas 900,000+ COVID deaths.

There's nothing one man can do, to avoid any of this stuff. American politicians only give a damn about one thing: re-election.

[Jmsuttr]

IMO, political debate absolutely serves a purpose now. Ukraine is about to be destroyed and USA is going to be severely weakened if Russia is handed over to the Chinese. We need to discuss what, if anything, went wrong in order to know what to do next.

I'm completely in agreement with John Mearsheimer (https://www.mearsheimer.com/) that Ukraine was terribly mishandled by the USA, starting in 2008 (G W Bush / Dick Cheney administration). What should have been done is declare that NATO and EU would eventually be replaced by a United States of Europe, which would never include Ukraine, and that Finland, Baltic States and Moldova would be kept demilitarized provided Russia kept Kaliningrad enclave, western Belarus and western Ukraine demilitarized. Nice clean division between west and east Europe, with a demilitarized buffer zone in between. Good fences make good neighbors.

I have no doubt the Ukrainians are brave, determined, filled with angry energy, and thus will fight like lions. Problem is, lions are stupid animals, and what is needed now is not physical courage but rstger brains and moral courage, meaning the courage to make unpopular decisions..

Was meant primarily with Ukrainians in mind. For any who are sitting in a comfortable chair, and typing on a keyboard in the warmth of a nicely heated and illuminated abode, feel free to analyze, pseudo-analyze, blame, pontificate, justify, or whatever, to your heart's content.

But such activities have little point or worth for people who are dodging bullets and bombs. For them it's about survival. And it's those unfortunates who are uppermost in my concerns.

[The Cane]

But my point is simply that Putin's mentality and ambition long preceded Trump and that, had Trump never become president, Putin's trajectory would have remained the same.

May I please borrow your crystal ball? Or, at least tell me where you got yours. So I can go and get me one too.

[The Cane]

Let's get one thing straight here after that drivel you wrote. There is zero blame on trump. Weak losers blame others for their mistakes and failures.

Talk about some drivel. And Donald Chump did plenty of just that. Blaming other people for anything and everything and not owning up to his own failings for four solid years. It got him impeached twice he was so bad. The man was the worst president in American history because he didn't respect nor live up to our democratic standards and ideals. He didn't even try to. He had nothing but admiration for strong man dictators around the world, and still does. Five year-old accountability:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYr2XteXUB8

[Rocko20]

But Trump's incessant, baffling and, quite frankly, nauseating bootlicking has certainly emboldened him to a huge degree.

Blaming Trump for the actions of Putin is like blaming Biden for the botched Afghanistan withdrawal after a 20 year occupation. Or Blaming Trump or Biden for Americas 900,000+ COVID deaths.

There's nothing one man can do, to avoid any of this stuff. American politicians only give a damn about one thing: re-election.

[Xpartan]

First of all yes, Putin is one of the last commies in power left who thinks that the demise of the Soviet Union was a bad thing. I know that the majority of the people who lived under the thumb of the Soviet Union, including the Russian people themselves, don't agree him. And yes again, Obama showed absolute weakness when his "red line" in Syria was crossed, and then he did nothing (I saw the same interview).

Three things.

1. Let's not forget who was screaming at the top of their lungs against pulling America into yet another war (we were already involved in two others).

Republicans, in particular, have turned against Syrian airstrikes. A week ago, Republicans were divided about evenly: 35% favored and 40% opposed military airstrikes in response to the governments alleged use of chemical weapons. Today, Republicans oppose airstrikes by an overwhelming 70% to 21% margin, with 51% saying they are strongly opposed.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...strikes-surges

2. Let's also remember that President went ahead and asked the authorization from Congress.

So when the president stepped into the sunny Rose Garden that Saturday morning, he announced that he had made two decisions: first, that the U.S. should act against Syria, and second, that he would seek explicit authorization from Congress to do so. With that, the administration set out on a different campaign than the military one we had been preparing for: to convince the American people that intervening in Syria was in the countrys interest.

What transpired over the next month was one of the most controversial and revealing episodes in eight years of Obamas foreign policy. Despite the administrations strong advocacy and support from a small minority of hawkish politicians, Congress and the American people proved strongly opposed to the use of force.

3. Let's also remember that ASSAD AND THE RUSSIANS did cave in.

In the end, however, the threat of military action and a surprise offer by Russia ended up achieving something no one had imagined possible: the peaceful removal of 1,300 tons of Syrias chemical weapons (there have been reports of stray weapons and widespread use of industrial chemicals like chlorine, but no evidence of systematic deception on the part of the Syrian government).

By October 2013, without a bomb being dropped, the Bashar Assad regime had admitted having a massive chemical weapons program it had never before acknowledged, agreed to give it up and submitted to a multinational coalition that removed and destroyed the deadly trove. From my perspective at the Pentagon, this seemed like an incontrovertible, if inelegant, example of what academics call coercive diplomacy, using the threat of force to achieve an outcome military power itself could not even accomplish.

Of course, as soon as the military option was off the table, repubs immediately changed their tune, but that's what they always do. Can a leopard change its spots?

The point is that removing chemical weapons from Syria was a huge victory for the US and the world. It's amazing that so many people think of it as a defeat after everything that was acomplished.

According to U.S. estimates, at more than 1,300 metric tons spread out over as many as 45 sites in a country about twice the size of Virginia, Syrias arsenal of chemical weapons in 2013 was the worlds third-largest. It was 10 times greater than the CIAs (erroneous) 2002 estimate of Iraqs chemical weapons stash, and 50 times larger than the arsenal Libya declared it had in late 2011. Because of the size and scope of the threat, Syrias chemical weapons were the administrations top concern during the first several years of the crisis.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...isited-214059/

The same can't be said about Obama's reaction to Russia's aggression in 2014, which was muted and weak, but blaming him for Syria is not fair at all.

[Xpartan]

But my point is simply that Putin's mentality and ambition long preceded Trump and that, had Trump never become president, Putin's trajectory would have remained the same.

So, since this has been stewing in Putin's noggin since probably the early 90's, looking for a causal event in the last few years runs the risk of being influenced by recency bias.

Whether one hates Trump and blames him for all the ills of the world, or does the same with Obama or Biden, the fact remains that Putin was going to go down this path no matter what. So whoever happened to be president of the US, or France, or PM of the UK, or Chancellor of Germany, is essentially irrelevant because no one was going to prevent Putin from trying to reclaim the glory of Greater Russia.

The only possible way a former or current world leader might have made a material difference is if he or she had successfully brought about regime change in Russia. But that was never in the cards and never seriously discussed, until now.

So feel free to blame Trump, while others blame Bush, Obama, or Biden. As far as I'm concerned, you're all equally correct, and equally wrong. That's because I still maintain that none of those leaders would have changed the reality Ukraine faces today.

And Obama's inability (or lack of desire) to adequately confront him back in 2014 was a profound and costly mistake.

But Trump's incessant, baffling and, quite frankly, nauseating bootlicking has certainly emboldened him to a huge degree.

[EatALotOpus]

Pornhub and onlyfans turned off for Russia. Game Over?

Jesus. Talk about a weapon of mass destruction.

If you don't mind I'll steal your post and post it in Opinions American politics. Thanks.

[Kozerog]

Not trying to start a political debate, since that doesn't serve much purpose right now, but just showing that there's no shortage of people at whom we can point the finger.

IMO, political debate absolutely serves a purpose now. Ukraine is about to be destroyed and USA is going to be severely weakened if Russia is handed over to the Chinese. We need to discuss what, if anything, went wrong in order to know what to do next.

I'm completely in agreement with John Mearsheimer (https://www.mearsheimer.com/) that Ukraine was terribly mishandled by the USA, starting in 2008 (G W Bush / Dick Cheney administration). What should have been done is declare that NATO and EU would eventually be replaced by a United States of Europe, which would never include Ukraine, and that Finland, Baltic States and Moldova would be kept demilitarized provided Russia kept Kaliningrad enclave, western Belarus and western Ukraine demilitarized. Nice clean division between west and east Europe, with a demilitarized buffer zone in between. Good fences make good neighbors.

I have no doubt the Ukrainians are brave, determined, filled with angry energy, and thus will fight like lions. Problem is, lions are stupid animals, and what is needed now is not physical courage but rstger brains and moral courage, meaning the courage to make unpopular decisions.

The argument that "we" don't appease dictators is keyboard warrior talk. USA most definitely "appeased" Stalin when it allowed him to swallow up the Baltic States and eastern Europe. USA "appeased" China / Russia by allowing a division of Korea and then a division of Vietnam, before we threw in the towel completely on Vietnam. USA "appeased" China regarding Tibet. USA "appeased" Russia when Russia invaded Georgia and USA did nothing but issue some ineffective sanctions, then same story with Crimea. Etc. USA picks its battles and it walks away when the situation is hopeless, which is normal behavior in the real world, though maybe not in keyboard warrior land.

If Ukrainians really are fully prepared to die, see their family and friends die, and see their country bombed into rubble, before they concede anything to Russia, well okay, it's their lives and their country. Problem I see is that Ukrainians don't actually think this, but have become confused by big words like "appeasement" and "sovereign" (as in "sovereign right to decide their own future") so that they can't think straight. In particular, they haven't really thought about which hill they are truly prepared to die on.

I understand that Ukrainians don't like living under Russia's boot. But the Russian people have it worse, because they are directly under Putin's control, rather than at one remove from Putin. And the ancestors of both modern Ukrainians and modern Russians lived under Stalin's boot and the Tsar's boot before that. The Chinese people live under a more fiendishly repressive regime than than of Stalin, while North Korea makes China look like paradise. Most of Africa is worse than Russia. Etc, etc.

Right now, Ukrainians are taking an enormous risk, hoping they can frustrate Russia long enough to cause a coup and whoever replaces Putin will cancel the invasion. If this plan works, great. Otherwise, Ukraine could end up economically destroyed and presided over by some thug puppet ruler who makes Putin look like a nice guy. This is what happened to Chechnya. Downside risk is very high, odds very poor. Best course of action is thus to simply give Putin everything he wants, so that the bleeding is stopped and Ukraine can begin the difficult work of repairing all the damage. If the keyboard warriors don't like this, let them personally infiltrate Russia and attempt to assassinate Putin, but stop playing games with other people's lives.