Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

Doesn't India have a few rich bullion dealers? They'll figure it out.

India has nothing to figure out. They're quite happy paying in rupees. It's Russia that has a problem.

Oh, and if you think India will ever pay in gold, rather than rupees, I've got a slightly broken Kerch Strait bridge for sale.

Wyatt Earp's main point, as I understood it, is that there's a perfectly good mechanism for intl trade, namely the US dollar. And there have been a plethora of schemes to de-dollarize, using gold and other mechanisms, but all have fallen short.

Russia has plenty of clever financial types such as Elvira Nabiullina, yet they still find themselves receiving (essentially worthless) "candy wrappers" in exchange for valuable oil.

[Riina]

People will hurt their heads trying to come up with some scheme like currency for gold.

Doesn't India have a few rich bullion dealers? They'll figure it out.

[Jmsuttr]

We have seen the end of dollar dominance predicted for a few decades now. This refrain is now particularly popular with Sinophiles and Russophiles.

This is a perfect example of the currency dilemma. Russia now has Rupees. There are normally only two choices. Buy goods from India. India doesn't produce enough of what Russia wants or needs. The second one is convert it into a currency that is useful. A currency that is freely floated and widely-held. Bingo! Dollars! That ain't going to work for the Russians.

I highly doubt the Russians could easily dump the Rupees if the Indian currency regulators would allow it. Chinese Yuan doesn't work for the same reason. The Yuan has too many capital controls.

People will hurt their heads trying to come up with some scheme like currency for gold. The gold seller still has to hold that currency in a bank or treasury bond or find something to buy in that currency's home market.

Yep, spot on! Also, with respect to China, I would offer a couple of additional observations.

First, capital controls wouldn't impact Russia as much if they simply used Yuan to purchase Chinese goods and services, and China has more to offer than India. So, at least at first glance, that would seem to offer a solution to Russia's problem. The main issue here is what goods and services would Chinese businesses be willing to sell, since they'd be concerned about the possibility of sanctions impacting their business with Europe and the West.

Second, transacting in Yuan could increase Russia's vulnerability as volume increases in a currency that's really only efficient for China-Russia trade. While China might be more lenient in allowing Russia to exchange Yuan for other currencies, there would be additional friction and costs as third-parties would probably be needed. Therefore, whatever Russia decided to do with excess Yuan, they'd still be the lesser partner since China retains control of rules governing that currency.

To make a long story short, more trade with China in Yuan = more dependency on China. Hard to see any good options for Russia, as all roads lead to either a dead end or a slippery slope.

[WyattEarp]

https://charter97.org/en/news/2023/3/6/538876/

"Kremlin companies have a new headache.

Having increased trade with India by hundreds of percent and abandoned the dollar at the request of the Kremlin, Russian companies are facing a problem: it turned out they have nowhere to put the rupees received for the sale of goods to Indian counterparties.

"Oil in exchange for "candy wrappers". Russian companies do not know what to do with the rupees received from India," notes the Russian economic publication Finanz.

Exporters have accumulated Indian currency, but the Indian regulator does not allow it to be traded on the Moscow Exchange and converted into rubles, Kirill Pestov, managing director for business development of the exchange, said in an interview with Reuters".

Those who believed this was the beginning of the end of dollar dominance might want to reconsider. But hey, India is certainly happy as they're definitely getting the better end of the deal. In fact, it's my guess they're laughing all the way to the gas pump!

We have seen the end of dollar dominance predicted for a few decades now. This refrain is now particularly popular with Sinophiles and Russophiles.

This is a perfect example of the currency dilemma. Russia now has Rupees. There are normally only two choices. Buy goods from India. India doesn't produce enough of what Russia wants or needs. The second one is convert it into a currency that is useful. A currency that is freely floated and widely-held. Bingo! Dollars! That ain't going to work for the Russians.

I highly doubt the Russians could easily dump the Rupees if the Indian currency regulators would allow it. Chinese Yuan doesn't work for the same reason. The Yuan has too many capital controls.

People will hurt their heads trying to come up with some scheme like currency for gold. The gold seller still has to hold that currency in a bank or treasury bond or find something to buy in that currency's home market.

[Jmsuttr]

https://charter97.org/en/news/2023/3/6/538876/

"Kremlin companies have a new headache.

Having increased trade with India by hundreds of percent and abandoned the dollar at the request of the Kremlin, Russian companies are facing a problem: it turned out they have nowhere to put the rupees received for the sale of goods to Indian counterparties.

"Oil in exchange for "candy wrappers". Russian companies do not know what to do with the rupees received from India," notes the Russian economic publication Finanz.

Exporters have accumulated Indian currency, but the Indian regulator does not allow it to be traded on the Moscow Exchange and converted into rubles, Kirill Pestov, managing director for business development of the exchange, said in an interview with Reuters".

Those who believed this was the beginning of the end of dollar dominance might want to reconsider. But hey, India is certainly happy as they're definitely getting the better end of the deal. In fact, it's my guess they're laughing all the way to the gas pump!

[Jmsuttr]

Several of the facts you mentioned are false. It's no wonder why you're confused when things are working out like you imagine.

Members of the jury, I present Exhibit One:

"It's no wonder why you're confused when things are working out like you imagine".

I rest my case. Any questions?

[VinDici]

Several of the facts you mentioned are false. It's no wonder why you're confused when things are working out like you imagine.

Typical coward.

Point out which facts are wrong (Spoiler alert, there aren't any).

Make your own argument (Spoiler alert, you don't have the capacity).

[VinDici]

News report today on a single older Ukrainian that got blasted in the field after saying slava ukraina. They didn't torture him.

Where was the media when a dozen young Russians got shot through legs? Efing brutal and no outrage.

Cruel and psychotic behavior has become so normalized among RuZZians, that "we didn't torture this one" sounds like a real act of mercy and kindness in their eyes. You can't even understand why shooting him is wrong.

We have radically different values, and that is why the Georgians are rioting now, that is why Ukranians are fighting, why the Baltics and Poles are arming themselves to the teeth, they don't want to be like you, and they sure as hell don't want to be part of you.

[SmoothOpz]

If I had a dollar for every prediction that Ukraine was "about done," I'd have a shitload of dollars. Even those who supposedly have good expertise and information sources have been wrong more often than right. And pretty much every pundit who underestimated Ukraine now has egg on their face.

As I've posted multiple times, rather than make predictions I prefer to observe the facts on the ground and then use those facts as a starting point for the various ways things could play out, and which paths might be more or less probable. Here's an observation I think is significant that I'm not seeing discussed anywhere:

We've just passed the 1 year anniversary of the war. One thing we know about Russia and Putin is that they hold anniversaries, and other special dates, in high regard. So, what I find HUGELY significant is that this notable anniversary passed without so much as a whimper from the Russian military. No giant barrage of missiles, no major offensive operation, nothing. It's hard for me to believe that, if Putin had the resources and ability, he wouldn't have ordered some large-scale show of force. The fact that he hasn't means (IMO) that he most likely couldn't. And this conclusion is supported by two other facts. First, missile barrages targeting infrastructure have largely stopped. There may be one or a few here and there, but nothing like before. Second, Russian forces have been trying to take Bakhmut for about 10 months. Nearly everywhere else they've been either on the defensive or not doing much offensively. Bakhmut is of little strategic value but politically important (to Russia) which explains why they keep trying. If Russia loses thousands of men to gain a few hundred meters, or even a kilometer, it still shows that they have offensive capability. And, if they can make some incremental gains, those can be trumpeted as "successful" and serve as a distraction from their lack of gains elsewhere.

All of the above would seem to indicate that it's Russia that's feeling the strain, more so than Ukraine. Meanwhile, Western support continues at a good pace, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Western countries. I won't make a prediction here, but the probabilities are not trending favorably for Russia. And I would argue their performance (lack thereof, actually) and their current behavior are evidence that they're not doing well.

BTW, I also want the war to stop. But I care who wins because, if Ukraine wins, Russia will be deterred from future aggression. If Russia wins, not only will they become more aggressive but the clock will start ticking for the next conflict. The Baltics, Nordics, and Poland all know this, which is why they're 100% in support of Ukraine.

Several of the facts you mentioned are false. It's no wonder why you're confused when things are working out like you imagine.

[Jmsuttr]

Some people are dreaming or wishful thinking. Eventually Ukraine will run out of soldiers and merc's. Its a numbers game and Russia has more numbers. Timeline is not the issue. Oh its been going on a year and Russia is in trouble, that gives Putin a good laugh I'm sure. Russia has heavy bombers, many many of them. If Putin had chosen the "shock and Awe" the US method of warfare this would have been over long ago and Kiev would look like Hamburg after WW11. That though would be stupid as it would cost billions to build it back. Eliminating the military is the goal not the destruction of Ukraine but this takes time, allot more time. Say what you will but this is over. ,maybe not this month or next but inevitably its over. Western Boots are their only salvation and I don't see that happening or its WW111 and we all lose.

Its amazing how many people talk about Russia's so-called 'strengths' and are essentially making the point that Putin is somehow holding back.

When it comes to air power, for example, the fact that Russia hasn't been able to establish air superiority is simply stunning. There are various theories about this, ranging from the "just you wait" proponents (like yourself) to those who fault Russian training methods and those who credit Ukraine's air defense strategies. Those two latter points are explored in more depth in this article:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cont...r-superiority/

You talk about coulda, woulda, shoulda, and make predictions from there. I simply direct my attention to what's actually happening. As just one example, why would the (alleged) 2nd best military in the world need to rely so heavily on a private mercenary army like Wagner PMC? And why would Wagner PMC need to recruit convicts? Neither of those actual events square with the "strong Russia" hypothesis.

As to when it'll be over, you can make all the armchair predictions you want but battlefield realities will always have the final word. And, at this point in time, Russia controls much less territory than it did immediately after the invasion. And theyve showed limited and flawed ability to make battlefield gains. Meanwhile, Russia's own troops are going on social media to complain about lack of weapons and training. And one recent poat featured a commander explicitly refusing to send his unprepared men on a suicidal meat-grinder mission. Again, the predominant evidence coming from the front lines are that of a disjointed, dysfunctional, and weak military. That's not to say things can't change. But that's where the situation currently stands.

So, while you content yourself with all your theories as to why there's no chance Goliath would ever be defeated by David, I'm happy to sit back and watch actual events unfold. And, to this point, things ain't looking so great for Goliath.

[Locamotive]

If I had a dollar for every prediction that Ukraine was "about done," I'd have a shitload of dollars. Even those who supposedly have good expertise and information sources have been wrong more often than right. And pretty much every pundit who underestimated Ukraine now has egg on their face.

As I've posted multiple times, rather than make predictions I prefer to observe the facts on the ground and then use those facts as a starting point for the various ways things could play out, and which paths might be more or less probable. Here's an observation I think is significant that I'm not seeing discussed anywhere:

We've just passed the 1 year anniversary of the war. One thing we know about Russia and Putin is that they hold anniversaries, and other special dates, in high regard. So, what I find HUGELY significant is that this notable anniversary passed without so much as a whimper from the Russian military. No giant barrage of missiles, no major offensive operation, nothing. It's hard for me to believe that, if Putin had the resources and ability, he wouldn't have ordered some large-scale show of force. The fact that he hasn't means (IMO) that he most likely couldn't. And this conclusion is supported by two other facts. First, missile barrages targeting infrastructure have largely stopped. There may be one or a few here and there, but nothing like before. Second, Russian forces have been trying to take Bakhmut for about 10 months. Nearly everywhere else they've been either on the defensive or not doing much offensively. Bakhmut is of little strategic value but politically important (to Russia) which explains why they keep trying. If Russia loses thousands of men to gain a few hundred meters, or even a kilometer, it still shows that they have offensive capability. And, if they can make some incremental gains, those can be trumpeted as "successful" and serve as a distraction from their lack of gains elsewhere.

All of the above would seem to indicate that it's Russia that's feeling the strain, more so than Ukraine. Meanwhile, Western support continues at a good pace, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Western countries. I won't make a prediction here, but the probabilities are not trending favorably for Russia. And I would argue their performance (lack thereof, actually) and their current behavior are evidence that they're not doing well.

BTW, I also want the war to stop. But I care who wins because, if Ukraine wins, Russia will be deterred from future aggression. If Russia wins, not only will they become more aggressive but the clock will start ticking for the next conflict. The Baltics, Nordics, and Poland all know this, which is why they're 100% in support of Ukraine.

Some people are dreaming or wishful thinking. Eventually Ukraine will run out of soldiers and merc's. Its a numbers game and Russia has more numbers. Timeline is not the issue. Oh its been going on a year and Russia is in trouble, that gives Putin a good laugh I'm sure. Russia has heavy bombers, many many of them. If Putin had chosen the "shock and Awe" the US method of warfare this would have been over long ago and Kiev would look like Hamburg after WW11. That though would be stupid as it would cost billions to build it back. Eliminating the military is the goal not the destruction of Ukraine but this takes time, allot more time. Say what you will but this is over. ,maybe not this month or next but inevitably its over. Western Boots are their only salvation and I don't see that happening or its WW111 and we all lose.

[Jmsuttr]

News report today on a single older Ukrainian that got blasted in the field after saying slava ukraina. They didn't torture him.

Where was the media when a dozen young Russians got shot through legs? Efing brutal and no outrage.

In fact, they have so little concern about committing obvious war crimes that they broadcast them. The recent incident in which they killed an unarmed prisoner was broadcast via Russian channels. And it's irrelevant whether or not he was tortured, the killing of an unarmed POW is a war crime, in and of itself.

On the subject of torture, the recent discovery of multiple torture chambers set up by Orcs while they occupied Kherson is conclusive evidence of the systematic use of torture by Putin's goons. And there are many non-Ukrainian observers who are gathering evidence and documenting Russia's war crimes. They have a lot of work ahead of them, so we probably won't have a comprehensive picture for quite some time.

About the incident you cited, if there's adequate evidence, then those responsible should be held accountable. But, even if true and proven, that in NO way absolves the systematic criminal behavior that characterizes Russia's military. Their complete contempt for human life is evident, not only in the way they treat captives and civilians, but also in the way they treat their own troops. There is no equivalence here as all of Europe certainly understands, and most of the rest of the world as well.

One understandable effect is that it increases Ukraine's resolve to continue fighting. And it similarly increases the West's resolve to continue supporting Ukraine.

[WyattEarp]

Interesting analysis of China's 'peace plan' that argues it's more of a window into China's concerns about Taiwan than it is about Ukraine or Russia.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/06...plan-xi-putin/

After reading the article, it's my sense China won't be able to deter or intimidate the West. Which means, if they decide to invade Taiwan, they'll need to take extraordinary steps to sanction-proof themselves. I don't know if they'll be able to pull it off, but I'll be watching closely to see what moves they make in that direction.

I've mentioned before that China tends to move cautiously, rather than impulsively. And I think Russia's debacle in Ukraine has made that even more true, as it's shown how many things can go wrong and how preconceived assumptions can be wildly off base.

P.S. Although the article doesn't make this specific assertion, it seems to me that the analysis + my point about China's cautious nature = very likely that China continues with its tightrope walk. To me that means, no matter what the rhetoric, they probably won't provide Russia with significant military aid.

Anyone with a sense for foreign policy and without Russian sympathies realizes the Ukraine takes on far more global importance. The West does not want Russian aggression to succeed for fear it would embolden China.

When China proposed their peace plan, I didn't exactly come to the conclusion as the author in the Foreign Policy article. It does make an important point. I simply thought the Chinese were tone deaf and thought they would run a peace plan up the pole that was favorable to Russia. It certainly didn't read like a peace plan from an honest broker. It would also seem China's global prestige suffered some.

When you see things like this Chinese peace plan, you wonder if Xi is out of touch and his advisors can't give him honest assessments. That seems scarier to me than the Chinese proposal in itself.

[Riina]

News report today on a single older Ukrainian that got blasted in the field after saying slava ukraina. They didn't torture him.

Where was the media when a dozen young Russians got shot through legs? Efing brutal and no outrage.

[Jmsuttr]

Interesting analysis of China's 'peace plan' that argues it's more of a window into China's concerns about Taiwan than it is about Ukraine or Russia.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/06...plan-xi-putin/

After reading the article, it's my sense China won't be able to deter or intimidate the West. Which means, if they decide to invade Taiwan, they'll need to take extraordinary steps to sanction-proof themselves. I don't know if they'll be able to pull it off, but I'll be watching closely to see what moves they make in that direction.

I've mentioned before that China tends to move cautiously, rather than impulsively. And I think Russia's debacle in Ukraine has made that even more true, as it's shown how many things can go wrong and how preconceived assumptions can be wildly off base.

P.S. Although the article doesn't make this specific assertion, it seems to me that the analysis + my point about China's cautious nature = very likely that China continues with its tightrope walk. To me that means, no matter what the rhetoric, they probably won't provide Russia with significant military aid.