Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[WyattEarp]

China, however, has systemic problems that stem from the CCP's need to maintain a narrative that supports Xi's "Mandate of Heaven" irrespective of real economic conditions. And that's reflected in their need to control everything, from capital flows to property sales to stock market levels. But central control is a practical impossibility in an environment where a near-infinite number of variables means that unintended consequences will almost certainly occur. In a world experiencing generally positive growth a lot of those problems never break above the surface. But, like a Ponzi scheme that runs out of new money, at some point the chickens come home to roost. It's hard to know exactly where China's stall-speed point is, since everything is so opaque and they have many ways to keep bad news under wraps. It's my sense that, like the proverbial Minsky Moment, it'll be something that seems relatively small that'll trigger the next crisis.

Oh yes, and all the "whataboutism" finger-pointing at the US won't change a thing about the negative direction, and likely hard landing, of the Russian and Chinese economies.

China's economic miracle over the last thirty plus years is nothing but astounding. As you mention, the Chinese government has had an overly-controlling hand on the economy. Market reforms and capitalism are what brought China prosperity. Xi, however, has arrogantly brought back more government control and intervention in the economy to ride out the rough patch.

Many think of economics as some kind of decadent and imperialistic Anglo-American construct. For those who study it, they know its kind of like the gravity of human commerce. Governments can't avoid the inevitable forces of economics.

[Jmsuttr]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...e_leaving_the/

Why? Because Putin is killing Russia's present, just like he's already killed Russia's future.

[Jmsuttr]

Comrade Jmsuttr (wink), I suspect your post will generate the typical response that the United States economy and dollar are a house of cards. This even though you and I have presented the well-established academic view that having a reserve currency is a burden.

The real estate market in the United States is in a mini-bubble, but this is mostly driven by supply shortages. First, we weren't building enough houses after the 2008-2009 crash. Second, COVID slowed down real estate construction and materials. Outside a few small, desirable areas where foreigners flock, we don't have empty condo buildings. There is far less speculation than what we experienced in the 2000's.

I completely agree that the US isn't free of problems, and neither is the EU. But one big difference is the existence of a sizeable private sector with the incentive to find a way to profit from imbalances and govt mistakes. It may take a recession, or even a depression, but the errors and problems will eventually wash themselves out of the system. Also, most Western countries tend to wash out the politicians they hold responsible for the mismanagement. And one other relevant point is that in the EU and US we don't make a habit of putting such private investors in jail, as long as they keep their activities legal and above-board.

Until the invasion happened, I would have included Russia in the list of generally investable markets. Even though the problem of corruption and kleptocracy existed, many corporations and investors had figured out how to navigate those waters. But Putin changed everything and now the Russian economy has zero upside and nearly unlimited downside. Here's a current assessment from Al-Jazeera:

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...r-over-ukraine

China, however, has systemic problems that stem from the CCP's need to maintain a narrative that supports Xi's "Mandate of Heaven" irrespective of real economic conditions. And that's reflected in their need to control everything, from capital flows to property sales to stock market levels. But central control is a practical impossibility in an environment where a near-infinite number of variables means that unintended consequences will almost certainly occur. In a world experiencing generally positive growth a lot of those problems never break above the surface. But, like a Ponzi scheme that runs out of new money, at some point the chickens come home to roost. It's hard to know exactly where China's stall-speed point is, since everything is so opaque and they have many ways to keep bad news under wraps. It's my sense that, like the proverbial Minsky Moment, it'll be something that seems relatively small that'll trigger the next crisis.

Oh yes, and all the "whataboutism" finger-pointing at the US won't change a thing about the negative direction, and likely hard landing, of the Russian and Chinese economies.

[WyattEarp]

Both Russia and China, viewed in a long-term and macro sense, are trending in a negative direction. Both face huge demographic headwinds from declining birthrates that are unlikely to be alleviated by immigration, or other means, for years to come (if ever). China's problem is worse because of the "one child" policy that wasn't changed until much too late. Russia's problem was less acute but now has been worsened because Russia is unlikely to be attractive to immigrants as long as their economy suffers under sanctions or reparations. But Russia, with a smaller population, has less of a built-in buffer, and so may feel the effects sooner than China. Add to that the brain drain, and exodus of younger Russians, and the Kremlin is facing a major societal challenge.

Comrade Jmsuttr (wink), I suspect your post will generate the typical response that the United States economy and dollar are a house of cards. This even though you and I have presented the well-established academic view that having a reserve currency is a burden.

The real estate market in the United States is in a mini-bubble, but this is mostly driven by supply shortages. First, we weren't building enough houses after the 2008-2009 crash. Second, COVID slowed down real estate construction and materials. Outside a few small, desirable areas where foreigners flock, we don't have empty condo buildings. There is far less speculation than what we experienced in the 2000's.

[Jmsuttr]

China is on the precipice of a economic crash or a long, cyclical stagnation. All of the years of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure is catching up with them. The Xi government is kicking the can down the road until after he is given another five year term this year. Instead of stepping down after ten years, Xi wants to be Emperor for Life. Expect the small cracks to turn into big cracks after the re-coronation.

The China cheerleaders on social media say that the Chinese government is so smart and so firmly in control that they can navigate around a deep recession and just keep growing. It's never been done in the history of global economics. Economic cycles are not something that are only prone for Western economies. Even the Soviet Union suffered from economic cycles.

The fear is that years and years of hitting the economic accelerator at every sign of weakness had set the tables for a big crash or a long stagnation similar to Japan after its economic boom.

I believe China with its large economy will find a way to keep everyone fed, but the economic strain will test the CCP's hold on the people.

Both Russia and China, viewed in a long-term and macro sense, are trending in a negative direction. Both face huge demographic headwinds from declining birthrates that are unlikely to be alleviated by immigration, or other means, for years to come (if ever). China's problem is worse because of the "one child" policy that wasn't changed until much too late. Russia's problem was less acute but now has been worsened because Russia is unlikely to be attractive to immigrants as long as their economy suffers under sanctions or reparations. But Russia, with a smaller population, has less of a built-in buffer, and so may feel the effects sooner than China. Add to that the brain drain, and exodus of younger Russians, and the Kremlin is facing a major societal challenge.

Besides the demographic issues, both economies are full of smoke and mirrors and are opaque to any attempt to realistically analyze them. For example, even though Hong Kong has now been pretty much fully assimilated by China, its economic and financial reporting systems are still a product of pre-assimilation times. HK reported a 4% decrease in GDP in Q1 2022 due to COVID lockdowns. China, however, reported a 4. 8% increase over the same period, even though their COVID lockdowns have arguably been more severe and disruptive. No matter how bad things get, China will never report a negative GDP number. That would go against their "CCP brings prosperity" narrative and would pop Comrade Xi's bubble of competent leadership. Speaking of bubbles popping, the one most likely to go soon is the Ponzi scheme that is the China property market. All of China's recent moves have been to engineer a slow deflation and soft landing. I highly doubt that will happen, so Xi will do everything to kick the can down the road until he's elected to an unprecedented 3rd term. At that point, he'll become the new Mao and will try to consolidate his hold on power and become President for life. Whether that works, or for how long it works, will be interesting to watch. China is still China, but it's not Mao's China anymore.

The bottom-line is that both China and Russia will keep doing the same dysfunctional things that got them into their current predicaments. And that's why I laugh whenever I hear someone touting their partnership! Yeah, sure, they're partners in the same way one drowning person grabs onto another to keep themselves afloat. Unless one of them is a super-strong swimmer and experienced lifeguard, they're more likely to pull each other under.

And, guess what, neither Russia nor China is a super-strong, experienced lifeguard.

[Jmsuttr]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianCo...not_activated/

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkaza...7RBjx6cLQ&s=09

Definitely something to watch over the next week since many are talking about the likelihood of a formal declaration of war by Russia on that date. If a significant number of soldiers, sailors, and airmen, exercise their option to leave, it'll be interesting to see how the Kremlin responds. From all accounts, morale among Russian troops in Ukraine is pretty low. Even if this information isn't allowed to be publicly discussed, I'm sure it gets around via the grapevine that runs throughout most military forces.

If Russia declares war and invokes a full mobilization of national resources, there will be many, like our resident pro-Russia shills, who will stress only the (potential) positives while ignoring the (very likely) negatives. Interesting times!

[WyattEarp]

As far as China is concerned, their zero-covid strategy has backfired in a major way and, having already locked down Shanghai, they're now on the cusp of locking down Beijing. Their biggest problem will be keeping the population employed and fed, which means they'll need to be keenly inwardly focused. And one important point about China's current travails is that it makes them even more dependent on the West. That means their "partnership" with Russia is likely to be more talk than action..

China is on the precipice of a economic crash or a long, cyclical stagnation. All of the years of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure is catching up with them. The Xi government is kicking the can down the road until after he is given another five year term this year. Instead of stepping down after ten years, Xi wants to be Emperor for Life. Expect the small cracks to turn into big cracks after the re-coronation.

The China cheerleaders on social media say that the Chinese government is so smart and so firmly in control that they can navigate around a deep recession and just keep growing. It's never been done in the history of global economics. Economic cycles are not something that are only prone for Western economies. Even the Soviet Union suffered from economic cycles.

The fear is that years and years of hitting the economic accelerator at every sign of weakness had set the tables for a big crash or a long stagnation similar to Japan after its economic boom.

I believe China with its large economy will find a way to keep everyone fed, but the economic strain will test the CCP's hold on the people.

[Jmsuttr]

What is going on is the world is changing. Pakistan has seen its biggest ever protests against the recent US coup where over 70% of the Cabinet are on bail on corruption charges. The future is a fatwa against Americans, all Americans, scalping and so on, low tech as well as Hi tech, al of which the Pentagon thinks they have planned for.

You mention China and India like they were tiny places. The Great Satan aka USA is now interested in human rights in India (not Saudi) because of Russia. The answer is an all out fatwa on America and Americans. Fat, lazy, stupid and they even defecate in bed, something a dog would not do.

You mention these three countries as though they were bastions of strength, when the opposite is true. Pakistan, India, and China are constantly jockeying for position against each other but those regional struggles are largely irrelevant to the rest of the world. The more they fight, undercut, and devour each other, the less they can make mischief for anyone else.

As far as China is concerned, their zero-covid strategy has backfired in a major way and, having already locked down Shanghai, they're now on the cusp of locking down Beijing. Their biggest problem will be keeping the population employed and fed, which means they'll need to be keenly inwardly focused. And one important point about China's current travails is that it makes them even more dependent on the West. That means their "partnership" with Russia is likely to be more talk than action.

So, in contrast to your delusional fantasies about how the world is changing, all the facts and evidence show that America and the West are in the ascendancy; China, India, and Pakistan are stuck in the mud; and Russia is in a death-spiral. As far as your wet-dream of a fatwa against Americans is concerned, the mouse may proclaim a fatwa against the eagle, to which the eagle responds by calmly and confidently sharpening its talons.

BTW, as far as the actions of any particular individual is concerned, I really couldn't give two shits (in your bed). After all, I don't judge all Russians by Putin's bizarre habit of bathing in deer antler blood (something even a dog would shun).

[PedroMorales]

Is that they become so enamored of their own superior knowledge and insight that they have blinders when it comes to anything that might cast doubt on their conclusions. I don't claim to be a geopolitical expert, but I do have a keen eye for when cherry-picking of agreeable facts, and failing to acknowledge (or look for) disagreeable facts, is going on.

What is going on is the world is changing. Pakistan has seen its biggest ever protests against the recent US coup where over 70% of the Cabinet are on bail on corruption charges. The future is a fatwa against Americans, all Americans, scalping and so on, low tech as well as Hi tech, al of which the Pentagon thinks they have planned for.

You mention China and India like they were tiny places. The Great Satan aka USA is now interested in human rights in India (not Saudi) because of Russia. The answer is an all out fatwa on America and Americans. Fat, lazy, stupid and they even defecate in bed, something a dog would not do.

[PedroMorales]

Pedro, you have to be a devout Marxist. You've obviously been sucking down Red Bull all your life.

I have never had a Red Bull in my life and I don't intend to ever have one. I see your Nazi pals in the steelworks are surrendering and the women are predictably giving damning testimony about their captives.

As this is a European thread, you and XPartan should really FK off as you have zilch to contribute, being Americans and therefore being stupid.

I am very busy these days. I have a choice of three local providers. I am amazed prices have not dropped, what with all these Ukrainian hookers fleeing West.

I posted in AW about the Johnny Depp-Amber Heard gig. Heard crapping in the bed, real American class. I find it hard to get around the psychologist, Dr Curry, American, good looking (gym rat?) and intelligent. I guess there's always one.

[Xpartan]

Pedro, you have to be a devout Marxist.

Devout Moron more like it.

[Xpartan]

LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.

Sure, by all means. Rogue elements. Been missing your bullshit geopolitical word salad lately.

What gives? New instructions from the Internet Research Agency coming in?

Shit, you people are relentless.

Transparent too.

[Jmsuttr]

You are American and so do not belong in Europe about which you should not comment because you know nothing about it.

World War Two in Europe was a win for the USA who gave the least and took the most.

NATO is an American controlled mafia gang that is fueling the Ukrainian war, just as Sweden and Finland fueled Hitler. If Sweden and Finland carry through and join NATO and thereby allow Russia's Northern fleet to be blocked and Russia's early warning nuclear defences to be countered, nuclear war heads will rain down on New York and Washington.

Corruption has losers, in this case the ordinary Ukrainians. Zelensky, a guy who plays the piano in the nude, is the world's richest comedian..

If Finland and Sweden join NATO, it's as a direct result of Putin's narcissistic stupidity. He's going to rattle his nuclear saber, no matter what, but that's being seen as a sign of desperation and weakness.

Finland and Sweden are therefore giving LilliPutin the middle finger and calling his bluff. It seems to me they're betting that Vlad's trembling finger won't be able to find the red button, much less push it. And, even if he is a deranged and suicidal psychopath, it's unlikely that everyone in the launch chain of command will be willing to follow him off the nuclear cliff. It's just as likely that someone will give him a classic Stalin-style retirement.

Oh, and about corruption having losers, that's a perfect description of Putin, the uber-kleptocrat, and how he's raped his own country and population. He's losing in every conceivable way someone can lose. And, when he finally crashes and burns, it will be EPIC!

P.S. You know what else will be fun to watch? With all the new NATO bases and European deployments, there are going to be a lot of American soldiers shacking up with and shagging the local women. So that means, in about 9 months to a year, we should start seeing a bumper crop of Finnish-American, Swedish-American, and Baltic-American babies. Yep, thanks to Comrade Putin, NATO is enlarging and is stronger than ever.

[WyattEarp]

You are American and so do not belong in Europe about which you should not comment because you know nothing about it.

World War Two in Europe was a win for the USA who gave the least and took the most.

NATO is an American controlled mafia gang that is fueling the Ukrainian war, just as Sweden and Finland fueled Hitler. If Sweden and Finland carry through and join NATO and thereby allow Russia's Northern fleet to be blocked and Russia's early warning nuclear defences to be countered, nuclear war heads will rain down on New York and Washington.

Corruption has losers, in this case the ordinary Ukrainians. Zelensky, a guy who plays the piano in the nude, is the world's richest comedian.

Ukraine should surrender. Eastern Ukraine is being liberated and the last twelve years of Kiev war crimes are being ended. Western Ukraine will be another Kosovo, another US controlled Kosovo. Victoria NuLand said Fuck the EU. Fuck America as well. And fuck off as well.

Pedro, you have to be a devout Marxist. You've obviously been sucking down Red Bull all your life.

[Jmsuttr]

LOL. Ukraine is being ruthlessly used by rogue elements in the USA who think a,weakened Russia somehow helps the USA. On the contrary, USA would benefit from a strong Russia led bloc as an ally against China. USA certainly wasn't threatened by Russia after 1990,-but some people didn't get the message. Or maybe they did get a different message: no Russian enemy means budget cuts. Too shortsighted to see that China would justify plenty of budget for defense, so no need fur Russia as enemy.

Ukrainians are even stupider than USA to have allowed themselves to be used by these USA rogue elements. I say rogue, because according to reports in NYTimes and elsewhere, CIA has been warning for years that Ukraine is a red line for Russia and was advising against arming Ukraine. Even former President Bush the first (previously head of CIA) warned Ukrainians about nationalism in 1990. His son, of course, was the idiot (along with arch warmongers Rumsfeld and Cheney) who insisted on opening NATO for Ukraine,-which is how this mess started. Rogue elements are State and Defense Department. Defense because they never met a war they didn't like, as long as no real risk to USA. State because populated by nsive idealists. In other words, contrary to the natural assumption of a devious CIA plot, CIA are the responsible grownups in this case, and State Department is who has been running amok.

Is that they become so enamored of their own superior knowledge and insight that they have blinders when it comes to anything that might cast doubt on their conclusions. I don't claim to be a geopolitical expert, but I do have a keen eye for when cherry-picking of agreeable facts, and failing to acknowledge (or look for) disagreeable facts, is going on.

With respect to pre-Feb 24th realities, all of that was mooted by Russia's invasion. With that single act Putin took a situation that was many shades of gray and turned it into one that's starkly black and white. In Europe, the West, and arguably much of the world, Ukraine is perceived as the victim and Russia, personified in Putin, as the villain and aggressor.

I use the word "personified" because it's particularly apt, as Putin's leadership is as much a cult of personality as anything else. But that becomes problematic when the leader weakens or fails. Putin's health is clearly failing, as several videos released by Russian media have shown. And his military is desperately trying to avoid failure and gin up something that can be proclaimed as a victory, esp by the symbolic date of May 9th.

If Putin dies, or becomes unable to function, it's your assumption that another hard-liner will seamlessly take over and continue as before. I would argue that, in a "Royal Court" environment in which Putin has ruthlessly eliminated and suppressed any potential rival, it's equally likely that a bloodbath could break out as possible successors fight among each other. And there's also the question of how well, in a population conditioned to revere and idolize (only) Putin, any successor would be accepted. Any successive leader will be viewed, and evaluated, through Putin-colored glasses.

BTW, it's also worth noting that some strange shit is going on in Russia:

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022...ussia-n1593602

Events like mysterious fires and bridge collapses indicate either an extraordinary level of bad luck (or incompetence?) or perhaps an ongoing campaign of sabotage by either internal or external actors. Whatever the explanation, Mother Russia is experiencing a significant case of indigestion. I'm not making any specific predictions, simply observing that any analysis that ignores internal Russian difficulties is flawed.

Equally flawed is the assumption that Putin's army is capable of a conventional military victory, or would be able to effectively hold any territory they might conquer. All the evidence from the battlefield indicates that any gains made by Russia have come at a huge cost in men and equipment. That doesn't mean Ukraine isn't paying a high price, but they're being backstopped and replenished by the West, while Russia remains isolated. So, if a conventional victory proves to be out of reach, nukes are arguably one of the few (only?) cards Putin has left. One possible scenario would be a low-yield strike at a strategic target. But is such a move possible in the context of a "special operation" or would Putin first need to declare war and move toward full mobilization? And would such a move cost Russia the last shred of support or neutrality by countries like China and India?

I don't pretend to know the answers to all the above questions, or the scores of additional variables (known and unknown) that undoubtedly exist. All I know is that most pundits and prognosticators, like those who predicted a quick capitulation by Ukraine, have been proven embarrassingly wrong. Reality tends to play by her own rules.