Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Tiny 12]

It's a bit interesting that you suddenly started posting here after Q stopped and are hugely Pro-Russian.

Since you are pointing out the DPCIMs that the US will provide to Ukraine, I would love to hear your opinion on the extensive and continued use of cluster munitions and more recently chemical weapons by the Russian armies? Also would be very good to know your stance on the kidnapped children, which is reported to be more than 500,000, who have been taken from Ukraine to be "educated" in Russia.

Please enlighten us?

Xpartan is correct, any result other than Ukraine winning back its land back to the 2014 borders at a minimum would be a catastrophic loss for the Western nations and call into question the efficacy of NATO. Russia can withdraw wherever it likes, there is no sword of damocles on the Nation, Putin on the other hand.

Hugely pro-Russian? You completely mischaracterize what I wrote.

Of course I don't approve of the use of cluster munitions, chemical weapons or kidnapping. Yes, you have righteousness on your side. And yes, Russia and the Ukraine have already used cluster bombs on each other, so this is nothing new. As a USA Citizen I don't approve of my country using cluster bombs or providing them to other countries. I also don't approve of capital punishment, although I imagine that analogy is lost on you.

According to the press, one of the reasons the USA is providing cluster bombs is because the USA's supplies of certain other munitions is running low, as a result of military aid to Ukraine. The USA no longer manufactures cluster bombs, and I believe the last time it used them was 20 years ago. We're unlikely to use them in the future, on humanitarian grounds. But apparently it's OK to give them away.

Your, Zelensky's and others position that this cannot end until Russia withdraws to pre-2014 borders is a recipe for an endless war. And it's not fair to the people of Crimea, and probably some parts of the Donbass, where the majority want to be part of Russia. And, while they may not recognize it yet, it's not in the best interest of other Ukrainians, as it prevents a peace agreement that assures the country's security.

A peace agreement need not call into question the efficacy of NATO. It could involve a side deal with Ukraine where NATO guarantees its security.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3_0GqPvr4U

[VinDici]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html

https://youtu.be/C3_0GqPvr4U

It's a bit interesting that you suddenly started posting here after Q stopped and are hugely Pro-Russian.

Since you are pointing out the DPCIMs that the US will provide to Ukraine, I would love to hear your opinion on the extensive and continued use of cluster munitions and more recently chemical weapons by the Russian armies? Also would be very good to know your stance on the kidnapped children, which is reported to be more than 500,000, who have been taken from Ukraine to be "educated" in Russia.

Please enlighten us?

Xpartan is correct, any result other than Ukraine winning back its land back to the 2014 borders at a minimum would be a catastrophic loss for the Western nations and call into question the efficacy of NATO. Russia can withdraw wherever it likes, there is no sword of damocles on the Nation, Putin on the other hand.

[Tiny 12]

I don't know what it is, your stubbornness, some kind of deep-seated Russophilia, or crypto-admiration of Putin, but you're fundamentally wrong. Betraying Ukraine now when they're winning and helping war criminal Putin survive this calamity he started, would be, first and foremost, our own defeat, and not Ukraine's. Am I happy that Roosevelt wasn't as "fiscally responsible" as you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html

https://youtu.be/C3_0GqPvr4U

[Xpartan]

Grasping at straws? One of those straws is yours, your Bloomberg link. Another is Hestendk's number. A third is an article from Newsweek, the same source you're quoting. To review, your Bloomberg link estimates the Russian budget deficit will be 3% to 4% of GDP. Hestendk's numbers point towards a budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP. And my Newsweek article says total Russian military spending is 4.4% of GDP.

The consensus is the average analyst's estimate for the USA budget deficit as tracked by Bloomberg. It has nothing to do with Russia.

The $9 trillion estimate for the cost to Russia in one of your links is laughable. The $900 million per day figure may be reasonable, especially if you're including the replacement value of Russia's weapons stockpiles. As I mentioned, I read an article that said Russia was running out of certain munitions and doesn't have the industrial capacity to maintain the pace of its war effort. And 900 million a day, if that's true, will be hard to maintain. It's about 14% of Russian GDP.

So what does that mean, again, if it's true? Russia turns tail and heads home? It starts using tactical nuclear weapons? Hell if I know. The best solution is a cease fire followed by an end to the war.

From what I'm reading, combined military spending by the USA, Europe and Ukraine on the war, including military aid, may be around $120 billion per year. That's $40 billion every 4 months, very close to Hestendk's number for the Russian deficit, the straw you referred to when you quoted my post. If Russia matches the $120 billion in Ukrainian spending and western military aid, it's about 5% of their GDP. Russia can sustain that indefinitely.

1. No, Russia can't sustain that indefinitely. You're referring to GDP as if it's a sacred cow. What is GDP? Tanks are GDP. Aircraft are GDP. Mines, bombs, missiles, big arms, small arms, it's all there, in GDP. If the government spends 30 or 50 percent of their budget on war, heightened security, and hysterical propaganda (all TV stations and periodicals in Russia are owned and financed by the government), the numbers don't matter. GDP can be sky-high just because the economy has shifted from making tractors to making tanks (or, more likely in this case, refitting the old ones that had already been written off on the paper), and with 30 percent of the budget classified -- YOU JUST DON'T KNOW how much exactly the government spends on war. But what anyone in Russia who's not an idiot knows, it's a lot and it's unsustainable.

The quality of the Russian military hardware is also dubious. There are no more legit ways of getting western components, and Russian economy depends on everything. Russian hardware is not just inferior to the West, it's light years behind. They can't build modern tanks or aircraft any longer. They started bringing to front lines T55 -- that's from 1940's! Their bombers and fighters are still superior to Ukraine's, but vastly inferior to even outdated F16 if -- BIG IF -- Ukraine finally gets them. Then it's the reckoning time.

2. The 9 trillion quote was in rubles. At the time of the publication it was $126 billions.

3. "Followed by peace" is not an option. There are two realistic options. To keep supporting Ukraine until they win and to stop supporting them with full understanding that they won't stop fighting. The second option would be a disaster. For us (see #4).

4. I don't know what it is, your stubbornness, some kind of deep-seated Russophilia, or crypto-admiration of Putin, but you're fundamentally wrong. Betraying Ukraine now when they're winning and helping war criminal Putin survive this calamity he started, would be, first and foremost, our own defeat, and not Ukraine's. Am I happy that Roosevelt wasn't as "fiscally responsible" as you guys.

[Tiny 12]

What consensus? One third of Russia's budget is classified, LOL. What do you think they're hiding? Are you trying to convince yourself that Russia is a normal country? It's not.

Russia Spending an Estimated $900 Million a Day on Ukraine War.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...ne-war-1704383

Putin's War in Ukraine Has a Trillion-Dollar Price Tag.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...ne-war-1783463

How Putin Cannibalizes Russian Economy to Survive Personally.

https://time.com/6291642/putin-canni...ussian-economy

Grasping at straws? One of those straws is yours, your Bloomberg link. Another is Hestendk's number. A third is an article from Newsweek, the same source you're quoting. To review, your Bloomberg link estimates the Russian budget deficit will be 3% to 4% of GDP. Hestendk's numbers point towards a budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP. And my Newsweek article says total Russian military spending is 4.4% of GDP.

The consensus is the average analyst's estimate for the USA budget deficit as tracked by Bloomberg. It has nothing to do with Russia.

The $9 trillion estimate for the cost to Russia in one of your links is laughable. The $900 million per day figure may be reasonable, especially if you're including the replacement value of Russia's weapons stockpiles. As I mentioned, I read an article that said Russia was running out of certain munitions and doesn't have the industrial capacity to maintain the pace of its war effort. And 900 million a day, if that's true, will be hard to maintain. It's about 14% of Russian GDP.

So what does that mean, again, if it's true? Russia turns tail and heads home? It starts using tactical nuclear weapons? Hell if I know. The best solution is a cease fire followed by an end to the war.

From what I'm reading, combined military spending by the USA, Europe and Ukraine on the war, including military aid, may be around $120 billion per year. That's $40 billion every 4 months, very close to Hestendk's number for the Russian deficit, the straw you referred to when you quoted my post. If Russia matches the $120 billion in Ukrainian spending and western military aid, it's about 5% of their GDP. Russia can sustain that indefinitely.

[Xpartan]

Russia's annual GDP on 3/31/2023 was 2.35 trillion USD. So the 135 billion is 5.7% of GDP. That's not a large amount considering they're in a war. For comparison, the USA budget deficit was 10.6% of GDP in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and the consensus forecast for 2023 to 2025 is 5.4% to 5.7%.

What consensus? One third of Russia's budget is classified, LOL. What do you think they're hiding? Are you trying to convince yourself that Russia is a normal country? It's not.

Russia Spending an Estimated $900 Million a Day on Ukraine War.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...ne-war-1704383

Putin's War in Ukraine Has a Trillion-Dollar Price Tag.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...ne-war-1783463

How Putin Cannibalizes Russian Economy to Survive Personally.

https://time.com/6291642/putin-canni...ussian-economy

[Tiny 12]

Unlike you, I'm not trying to convert anyone, but here is a report (warning: a little technical) about the raise and fall of the insurgency in Ukraine in 1940-1950's. You may want to read at least the post-war part.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA562947.pdf

That said, I believe that the full withdrawal of Russians from Ukraine will only occur when some kind of a domestic struggle brings Kremlin to its knees.

It's getting late here Xpartan, I'll try to read it at lunch tomorrow. I'm not sure a domestic struggle will bring the Kremlin to its knees during our lifetimes, so that sounds like a gloomy prognosis.

My Ministry is only for Progressives who haven't seen the truth and the light of Classical Liberalism. Since this thread has little to do with economics, I'm not trying to convert anyone.

[Tiny 12]

Birthrate pro Woman is around 1,18 ATM. And its to low, it have to be around 2. If we are thinking the western way.

Ukrain have traditional have had a high unemployment rate, so if ukrain got it up to lets say 1. 8 I think that would be a good target rate, also remember more and more woman in ukrain take less free after a childbirth then before so their AR eincreasing the work capicity.

That's thinking out of the box. And it makes sense.

In Jan-April Russia burned 45 Billions USD mor then they made, they had a budget for 2023 in the Minus of 43 Billions.

Also they are printing money without the market knowing it is the roumor so the budget deficit is bigger then we can calculate.

I had the 60% from other sources that looked everything in.

The total Income Budget for Russia 2023 is 345 Billions, so lets divide that by 12 so every month they should get 28,75 billions in.

The first 4 months they then got 115 Billions in but used 160 Billions So okay that's an overspending of 40% in pure numbers.

Fair enough, that is about 40%, and it's overspending of 45 billion. Say that goes on for a year at the same rate. Then you have 12/4 x 45 = 135 billion in overspending for the year. Russia's annual GDP on 3/31/2023 was 2.35 trillion USD. So the 135 billion is 5.7% of GDP. That's not a large amount considering they're in a war. For comparison, the USA budget deficit was 10.6% of GDP in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and the consensus forecast for 2023 to 2025 is 5.4% to 5.7%.

Also remember that russia was expecting and calculating with and Gas / Oil price more then 50% higher then what they are getting now.

Good point. Russia is very dependent on oil and gas for tax revenue.

just plain stupidity and planing was done without looking at the facts.

And yes it is interesting that I don't know anyone that died yet.

I know at least 20 people that are in the armed forces and 4 of them at least are in SOF teams.

I belive the russian dead numbers are much higher then 300.000, what I hear from the front is that they just meat and russia not care about their soldiers.

Russia again today been spotted 300 KM from ukrain sending more T55 in.

I read somewhere that Russia had lost a large percentage of its tanks and other armaments in the war, and would be hard pressed to make up the shortfall.

I hope this war ends soon.

Again, thanks for sharing your on-the-ground observations.

[Xpartan]

On the news today, they're reporting that State Department personnel are in backchannel communications with Russia, hopefully about putting an end to this. If so, bully for Biden and Blinken.

After the WWII, Ukrainian partisans kept fighting Stalin's army and security forces for 8 years (in some areas until 1958). They fought a hopeless war in a complete isolation against the vastly superior enemy for 10 years, and they didn't even have their own country, their own armed forces, as well as any military, financial and spiritual help from the rest of the world.

Expecting the Ukrainians to give up now when they have all this (and when Russia's led by a coward who's certainly NOT Stalin) is unrealistic, to put it mildly. Then again, one would need to know at least some bits of Russia's history to understand what the Ukrainians are capable of.

Russia, on the other hand, remembers those days only too well, spewing megatons of hateful propaganda against the Ukrainian nationalists and their leaders of the past. The leaders they murdered or attempted to murder back in the 50's including Russia's #1 enemy to this day -- Stepan Bandera.

Unlike you, I'm not trying to convert anyone, but here is a report (warning: a little technical) about the raise and fall of the insurgency in Ukraine in 1940-1950's. You may want to read at least the post-war part.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA562947.pdf

That said, I believe that the full withdrawal of Russians from Ukraine will only occur when some kind of a domestic struggle brings Kremlin to its knees.

[Hestendk]

Yeah, it's good to get Hestendk's perspective. He could be a little more civil. He hasn't learned yet what I know from my Ministry, converting progressives to free market capitalism. You can attract more flies with honey than a shotgun. His posts have moderated some of my views.

He's got some good points about NATO becoming stronger and more unified and Russia weaker than before. He's wrong about the 60% deficit though. Russia's numbers like its budget deficit and current account surplus, if you believe them (and Hestendk and Xpartan don't), do not look that bad. Russia's experience in Ukraine may make China think twice about taking over Taiwan. His statement that he doesn't know anyone who died is interesting. USA government estimates are that 42,000 Ukrainian civilians and 20,000 of its armed forces have died. The BBC estimates 69,600+ Russians have died. Anyway, out of a population of 43.8 million, 62,000 deaths are 0. 14% of the population. That's only one out of every 7,000 people.

That said, a net loss of 6 million citizens to emigration out of a population of 43.8 million is huge. I'm reading estimates that the birth rate if nothing changes has gone down to 0. 53 per woman. You need a rate of 2 to avoid population loss. And while Russia may have not wiped out a lot of the infrastructure, it has the capacity to do so. It has the ability to snuff out the whole country and start World War III.

On the news today, they're reporting that State Department personnel are in backchannel communications with Russia, hopefully about putting an end to this. If so, bully for Biden and Blinken.

Birthrate pro Woman is around 1,18 ATM. And its to low, it have to be around 2. If we are thinking the western way.

Ukrain have traditional have had a high unemployment rate, so if ukrain got it up to lets say 1. 8 I think that would be a good target rate, also remember more and more woman in ukrain take less free after a childbirth then before so their AR eincreasing the work capicity.

In Jan-April Russia burned 45 Billions USD mor then they made, they had a budget for 2023 in the Minus of 43 Billions.

Also they are printing money without the market knowing it is the roumor so the budget deficit is bigger then we can calculate.

I had the 60% from other sources that looked everything in.

The total Income Budget for Russia 2023 is 345 Billions, so lets divide that by 12 so every month they should get 28,75 billions in.

The first 4 months they then got 115 Billions in but used 160 Billions So okay that's an overspending of 40% in pure numbers.

Also remember that russia was expecting and calculating with and Gas / Oil price more then 50% higher then what they are getting now.

Thats just plain stupidity and planing was done without looking at the facts.

And yes it is interesting that I don't know anyone that died yet.

I know at least 20 people that are in the armed forces and 4 of them at least are in SOF teams.

I belive the russian dead numbers are much higher then 300.000, what I hear from the front is that they just meat and russia not care about their soldiers.

Russia again today been spotted 300 KM from ukrain sending more T55 in.

[VinDici]

This one of the dumbest / ridiculous reports ever. You make Xman and Pauline look conservative and sane. . Well done.

It's intentional dumbass.

Why expending mental energy against a Z propagandist idiot? There is no debate to be had with with the brain dead. You aren't deserving of actual intellectual effort.

The intention behind all your posts is a continuous stream of lies, parroting of kremlin narratives, whilst not once acknowledging the much worse and egregious behaviour of the Muscovites.

So go fuck yourself.

[Tiny 12]

Good report. We can agree to differ.

Yeah, it's good to get Hestendk's perspective. He could be a little more civil. He hasn't learned yet what I know from my Ministry, converting progressives to free market capitalism. You can attract more flies with honey than a shotgun. His posts have moderated some of my views.

He's got some good points about NATO becoming stronger and more unified and Russia weaker than before. He's wrong about the 60% deficit though. Russia's numbers like its budget deficit and current account surplus, if you believe them (and Hestendk and Xpartan don't), do not look that bad. Russia's experience in Ukraine may make China think twice about taking over Taiwan. His statement that he doesn't know anyone who died is interesting. USA government estimates are that 42,000 Ukrainian civilians and 20,000 of its armed forces have died. The BBC estimates 69,600+ Russians have died. Anyway, out of a population of 43.8 million, 62,000 deaths are 0. 14% of the population. That's only one out of every 7,000 people.

That said, a net loss of 6 million citizens to emigration out of a population of 43.8 million is huge. I'm reading estimates that the birth rate if nothing changes has gone down to 0. 53 per woman. You need a rate of 2 to avoid population loss. And while Russia may have not wiped out a lot of the infrastructure, it has the capacity to do so. It has the ability to snuff out the whole country and start World War III.

On the news today, they're reporting that State Department personnel are in backchannel communications with Russia, hopefully about putting an end to this. If so, bully for Biden and Blinken.

[DramaFree11]

What about RuZZia dumbfuck, start there before you begin with lies about Ukraine?

-woman / children are leaving the country in droves, running to Argentina to have babies with another nationality, because everyone is disgusted with Orc blood.

-the men are being killed and turned into cubes of meat.

-no one is having babies, because Muscovite cunts are stealing them and taking them back to Mordor to indoctrinate them.

-RuZZia and it's companies are in their worst economic recession and crisis.

-NATO is stronger than ever before with Finland joining and Sweden on the pathway.

-Putin is fucked.

-Russia is fucked.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed by RuZZians that cannot stop committing war crimes, because they are cowardly pieces of shit.

-China is stronger than Ruzzia which has become its vassal state. RuZZia is to China, what Belarus is to RuZZia, what an own goal.

This one of the dumbest / ridiculous reports ever. You make Xman and Pauline look conservative and sane. . Well done.

[DramaFree11]

Lets Debunk most of your shit.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

12 Millions ukrain left in 2022, of those 12 more the 6 Millions are already returned.

Even Woman And Kids come back because most of the 12 Milliosn was infact Woman And Kids.

-the men are being killed.

Its a war this is right, but I still don't know anyone that's been killed OR injuried here, and I Know +100 people.

So the rate is not as big as you wish it is.

-no one is having babies.

Hmmm in 2023 there is expected to be born 2. 2% less Ukrain Children then the year before.

Yes Ukrainians need to make more babies to withhold the population long term, but everyone are aware of this and the government have programs that are encouring more and more to get 2-3 children.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

Europe is in a Technical Recession, that is not the same as an fullblown recession like Russia is in.

Europe have much more to stand with in a recsseion so this is not a problem at the moment.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

Everyone in Nato are stronglty connected, Everyone use more on military spending and aim for the 2%.

Yes Hungary make some issues, but they not vital for Nato.

And then Turkey which are trying to get something Either F35 or something else from the USA.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

Maybe in underdeveloped countries like in Africa he is this, but one thing is a Rating, another is real power.

To think Putin have more power now then before, that just insanity.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

Sorry what?

The national budget is in like 60% defict, the Army is poor, they can't even protect their own inland.

They shooting missiles and drones that in 95% of the cases are getting shot down.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

Yes some is getting destroyed, but I can tell you that the infrastructure in general are getting better and better everywhere.

Ukrain even drilling new gass wells every month to prepare to be 100% self suffiant and in longer term cut Russia away from Europe.

-China is stronger.

I think China is same strengt as before, their army is build to maintain the defence in asia, and to try and capture Taiwan, they are not ready for a long war with ex. USA that can maintain armyes half way around the world.

You really need to research on your things before typying nonsense like you just did, or maybe just Come to Ukrain and we can show you what's going on here and why they will win.

You actually have some common sense, unlike the other clowns. Good report. We can agree to differ. We will have all are answers by the end of the summer.

[Hestendk]

Yes, and I said I was wrong. Again at what cost, Ukraine is slowly being destroyed.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

-the men are being killed.

-no one is having babies.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

-China is stronger.

I can go on. Ukraine and there Allie's are getting destroyed and humiliated.

Lets Debunk most of your shit.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

12 Millions ukrain left in 2022, of those 12 more the 6 Millions are already returned.

Even Woman And Kids come back because most of the 12 Milliosn was infact Woman And Kids.

-the men are being killed.

Its a war this is right, but I still don't know anyone that's been killed OR injuried here, and I Know +100 people.

So the rate is not as big as you wish it is.

-no one is having babies.

Hmmm in 2023 there is expected to be born 2. 2% less Ukrain Children then the year before.

Yes Ukrainians need to make more babies to withhold the population long term, but everyone are aware of this and the government have programs that are encouring more and more to get 2-3 children.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

Europe is in a Technical Recession, that is not the same as an fullblown recession like Russia is in.

Europe have much more to stand with in a recsseion so this is not a problem at the moment.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

Everyone in Nato are stronglty connected, Everyone use more on military spending and aim for the 2%.

Yes Hungary make some issues, but they not vital for Nato.

And then Turkey which are trying to get something Either F35 or something else from the USA.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

Maybe in underdeveloped countries like in Africa he is this, but one thing is a Rating, another is real power.

To think Putin have more power now then before, that just insanity.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

Sorry what?

The national budget is in like 60% defict, the Army is poor, they can't even protect their own inland.

They shooting missiles and drones that in 95% of the cases are getting shot down.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

Yes some is getting destroyed, but I can tell you that the infrastructure in general are getting better and better everywhere.

Ukrain even drilling new gass wells every month to prepare to be 100% self suffiant and in longer term cut Russia away from Europe.

-China is stronger.

I think China is same strengt as before, their army is build to maintain the defence in asia, and to try and capture Taiwan, they are not ready for a long war with ex. USA that can maintain armyes half way around the world.

You really need to research on your things before typying nonsense like you just did, or maybe just Come to Ukrain and we can show you what's going on here and why they will win.