Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Xpartan]

Russia's annual GDP on 3/31/2023 was 2.35 trillion USD. So the 135 billion is 5.7% of GDP. That's not a large amount considering they're in a war. For comparison, the USA budget deficit was 10.6% of GDP in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and the consensus forecast for 2023 to 2025 is 5.4% to 5.7%.

What consensus? One third of Russia's budget is classified, LOL. What do you think they're hiding? Are you trying to convince yourself that Russia is a normal country? It's not.

Russia Spending an Estimated $900 Million a Day on Ukraine War.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...ne-war-1704383

Putin's War in Ukraine Has a Trillion-Dollar Price Tag.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...ne-war-1783463

How Putin Cannibalizes Russian Economy to Survive Personally.

https://time.com/6291642/putin-canni...ussian-economy

[Tiny 12]

Unlike you, I'm not trying to convert anyone, but here is a report (warning: a little technical) about the raise and fall of the insurgency in Ukraine in 1940-1950's. You may want to read at least the post-war part.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA562947.pdf

That said, I believe that the full withdrawal of Russians from Ukraine will only occur when some kind of a domestic struggle brings Kremlin to its knees.

It's getting late here Xpartan, I'll try to read it at lunch tomorrow. I'm not sure a domestic struggle will bring the Kremlin to its knees during our lifetimes, so that sounds like a gloomy prognosis.

My Ministry is only for Progressives who haven't seen the truth and the light of Classical Liberalism. Since this thread has little to do with economics, I'm not trying to convert anyone.

[Tiny 12]

Birthrate pro Woman is around 1,18 ATM. And its to low, it have to be around 2. If we are thinking the western way.

Ukrain have traditional have had a high unemployment rate, so if ukrain got it up to lets say 1. 8 I think that would be a good target rate, also remember more and more woman in ukrain take less free after a childbirth then before so their AR eincreasing the work capicity.

That's thinking out of the box. And it makes sense.

In Jan-April Russia burned 45 Billions USD mor then they made, they had a budget for 2023 in the Minus of 43 Billions.

Also they are printing money without the market knowing it is the roumor so the budget deficit is bigger then we can calculate.

I had the 60% from other sources that looked everything in.

The total Income Budget for Russia 2023 is 345 Billions, so lets divide that by 12 so every month they should get 28,75 billions in.

The first 4 months they then got 115 Billions in but used 160 Billions So okay that's an overspending of 40% in pure numbers.

Fair enough, that is about 40%, and it's overspending of 45 billion. Say that goes on for a year at the same rate. Then you have 12/4 x 45 = 135 billion in overspending for the year. Russia's annual GDP on 3/31/2023 was 2.35 trillion USD. So the 135 billion is 5.7% of GDP. That's not a large amount considering they're in a war. For comparison, the USA budget deficit was 10.6% of GDP in 2021, 5.4% in 2022, and the consensus forecast for 2023 to 2025 is 5.4% to 5.7%.

Also remember that russia was expecting and calculating with and Gas / Oil price more then 50% higher then what they are getting now.

Good point. Russia is very dependent on oil and gas for tax revenue.

just plain stupidity and planing was done without looking at the facts.

And yes it is interesting that I don't know anyone that died yet.

I know at least 20 people that are in the armed forces and 4 of them at least are in SOF teams.

I belive the russian dead numbers are much higher then 300.000, what I hear from the front is that they just meat and russia not care about their soldiers.

Russia again today been spotted 300 KM from ukrain sending more T55 in.

I read somewhere that Russia had lost a large percentage of its tanks and other armaments in the war, and would be hard pressed to make up the shortfall.

I hope this war ends soon.

Again, thanks for sharing your on-the-ground observations.

[Xpartan]

On the news today, they're reporting that State Department personnel are in backchannel communications with Russia, hopefully about putting an end to this. If so, bully for Biden and Blinken.

After the WWII, Ukrainian partisans kept fighting Stalin's army and security forces for 8 years (in some areas until 1958). They fought a hopeless war in a complete isolation against the vastly superior enemy for 10 years, and they didn't even have their own country, their own armed forces, as well as any military, financial and spiritual help from the rest of the world.

Expecting the Ukrainians to give up now when they have all this (and when Russia's led by a coward who's certainly NOT Stalin) is unrealistic, to put it mildly. Then again, one would need to know at least some bits of Russia's history to understand what the Ukrainians are capable of.

Russia, on the other hand, remembers those days only too well, spewing megatons of hateful propaganda against the Ukrainian nationalists and their leaders of the past. The leaders they murdered or attempted to murder back in the 50's including Russia's #1 enemy to this day -- Stepan Bandera.

Unlike you, I'm not trying to convert anyone, but here is a report (warning: a little technical) about the raise and fall of the insurgency in Ukraine in 1940-1950's. You may want to read at least the post-war part.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA562947.pdf

That said, I believe that the full withdrawal of Russians from Ukraine will only occur when some kind of a domestic struggle brings Kremlin to its knees.

[Hestendk]

Yeah, it's good to get Hestendk's perspective. He could be a little more civil. He hasn't learned yet what I know from my Ministry, converting progressives to free market capitalism. You can attract more flies with honey than a shotgun. His posts have moderated some of my views.

He's got some good points about NATO becoming stronger and more unified and Russia weaker than before. He's wrong about the 60% deficit though. Russia's numbers like its budget deficit and current account surplus, if you believe them (and Hestendk and Xpartan don't), do not look that bad. Russia's experience in Ukraine may make China think twice about taking over Taiwan. His statement that he doesn't know anyone who died is interesting. USA government estimates are that 42,000 Ukrainian civilians and 20,000 of its armed forces have died. The BBC estimates 69,600+ Russians have died. Anyway, out of a population of 43.8 million, 62,000 deaths are 0. 14% of the population. That's only one out of every 7,000 people.

That said, a net loss of 6 million citizens to emigration out of a population of 43.8 million is huge. I'm reading estimates that the birth rate if nothing changes has gone down to 0. 53 per woman. You need a rate of 2 to avoid population loss. And while Russia may have not wiped out a lot of the infrastructure, it has the capacity to do so. It has the ability to snuff out the whole country and start World War III.

On the news today, they're reporting that State Department personnel are in backchannel communications with Russia, hopefully about putting an end to this. If so, bully for Biden and Blinken.

Birthrate pro Woman is around 1,18 ATM. And its to low, it have to be around 2. If we are thinking the western way.

Ukrain have traditional have had a high unemployment rate, so if ukrain got it up to lets say 1. 8 I think that would be a good target rate, also remember more and more woman in ukrain take less free after a childbirth then before so their AR eincreasing the work capicity.

In Jan-April Russia burned 45 Billions USD mor then they made, they had a budget for 2023 in the Minus of 43 Billions.

Also they are printing money without the market knowing it is the roumor so the budget deficit is bigger then we can calculate.

I had the 60% from other sources that looked everything in.

The total Income Budget for Russia 2023 is 345 Billions, so lets divide that by 12 so every month they should get 28,75 billions in.

The first 4 months they then got 115 Billions in but used 160 Billions So okay that's an overspending of 40% in pure numbers.

Also remember that russia was expecting and calculating with and Gas / Oil price more then 50% higher then what they are getting now.

Thats just plain stupidity and planing was done without looking at the facts.

And yes it is interesting that I don't know anyone that died yet.

I know at least 20 people that are in the armed forces and 4 of them at least are in SOF teams.

I belive the russian dead numbers are much higher then 300.000, what I hear from the front is that they just meat and russia not care about their soldiers.

Russia again today been spotted 300 KM from ukrain sending more T55 in.

[VinDici]

This one of the dumbest / ridiculous reports ever. You make Xman and Pauline look conservative and sane. . Well done.

It's intentional dumbass.

Why expending mental energy against a Z propagandist idiot? There is no debate to be had with with the brain dead. You aren't deserving of actual intellectual effort.

The intention behind all your posts is a continuous stream of lies, parroting of kremlin narratives, whilst not once acknowledging the much worse and egregious behaviour of the Muscovites.

So go fuck yourself.

[Tiny 12]

Good report. We can agree to differ.

Yeah, it's good to get Hestendk's perspective. He could be a little more civil. He hasn't learned yet what I know from my Ministry, converting progressives to free market capitalism. You can attract more flies with honey than a shotgun. His posts have moderated some of my views.

He's got some good points about NATO becoming stronger and more unified and Russia weaker than before. He's wrong about the 60% deficit though. Russia's numbers like its budget deficit and current account surplus, if you believe them (and Hestendk and Xpartan don't), do not look that bad. Russia's experience in Ukraine may make China think twice about taking over Taiwan. His statement that he doesn't know anyone who died is interesting. USA government estimates are that 42,000 Ukrainian civilians and 20,000 of its armed forces have died. The BBC estimates 69,600+ Russians have died. Anyway, out of a population of 43.8 million, 62,000 deaths are 0. 14% of the population. That's only one out of every 7,000 people.

That said, a net loss of 6 million citizens to emigration out of a population of 43.8 million is huge. I'm reading estimates that the birth rate if nothing changes has gone down to 0. 53 per woman. You need a rate of 2 to avoid population loss. And while Russia may have not wiped out a lot of the infrastructure, it has the capacity to do so. It has the ability to snuff out the whole country and start World War III.

On the news today, they're reporting that State Department personnel are in backchannel communications with Russia, hopefully about putting an end to this. If so, bully for Biden and Blinken.

[DramaFree11]

What about RuZZia dumbfuck, start there before you begin with lies about Ukraine?

-woman / children are leaving the country in droves, running to Argentina to have babies with another nationality, because everyone is disgusted with Orc blood.

-the men are being killed and turned into cubes of meat.

-no one is having babies, because Muscovite cunts are stealing them and taking them back to Mordor to indoctrinate them.

-RuZZia and it's companies are in their worst economic recession and crisis.

-NATO is stronger than ever before with Finland joining and Sweden on the pathway.

-Putin is fucked.

-Russia is fucked.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed by RuZZians that cannot stop committing war crimes, because they are cowardly pieces of shit.

-China is stronger than Ruzzia which has become its vassal state. RuZZia is to China, what Belarus is to RuZZia, what an own goal.

This one of the dumbest / ridiculous reports ever. You make Xman and Pauline look conservative and sane. . Well done.

[DramaFree11]

Lets Debunk most of your shit.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

12 Millions ukrain left in 2022, of those 12 more the 6 Millions are already returned.

Even Woman And Kids come back because most of the 12 Milliosn was infact Woman And Kids.

-the men are being killed.

Its a war this is right, but I still don't know anyone that's been killed OR injuried here, and I Know +100 people.

So the rate is not as big as you wish it is.

-no one is having babies.

Hmmm in 2023 there is expected to be born 2. 2% less Ukrain Children then the year before.

Yes Ukrainians need to make more babies to withhold the population long term, but everyone are aware of this and the government have programs that are encouring more and more to get 2-3 children.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

Europe is in a Technical Recession, that is not the same as an fullblown recession like Russia is in.

Europe have much more to stand with in a recsseion so this is not a problem at the moment.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

Everyone in Nato are stronglty connected, Everyone use more on military spending and aim for the 2%.

Yes Hungary make some issues, but they not vital for Nato.

And then Turkey which are trying to get something Either F35 or something else from the USA.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

Maybe in underdeveloped countries like in Africa he is this, but one thing is a Rating, another is real power.

To think Putin have more power now then before, that just insanity.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

Sorry what?

The national budget is in like 60% defict, the Army is poor, they can't even protect their own inland.

They shooting missiles and drones that in 95% of the cases are getting shot down.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

Yes some is getting destroyed, but I can tell you that the infrastructure in general are getting better and better everywhere.

Ukrain even drilling new gass wells every month to prepare to be 100% self suffiant and in longer term cut Russia away from Europe.

-China is stronger.

I think China is same strengt as before, their army is build to maintain the defence in asia, and to try and capture Taiwan, they are not ready for a long war with ex. USA that can maintain armyes half way around the world.

You really need to research on your things before typying nonsense like you just did, or maybe just Come to Ukrain and we can show you what's going on here and why they will win.

You actually have some common sense, unlike the other clowns. Good report. We can agree to differ. We will have all are answers by the end of the summer.

[Hestendk]

Yes, and I said I was wrong. Again at what cost, Ukraine is slowly being destroyed.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

-the men are being killed.

-no one is having babies.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

-China is stronger.

I can go on. Ukraine and there Allie's are getting destroyed and humiliated.

Lets Debunk most of your shit.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

12 Millions ukrain left in 2022, of those 12 more the 6 Millions are already returned.

Even Woman And Kids come back because most of the 12 Milliosn was infact Woman And Kids.

-the men are being killed.

Its a war this is right, but I still don't know anyone that's been killed OR injuried here, and I Know +100 people.

So the rate is not as big as you wish it is.

-no one is having babies.

Hmmm in 2023 there is expected to be born 2. 2% less Ukrain Children then the year before.

Yes Ukrainians need to make more babies to withhold the population long term, but everyone are aware of this and the government have programs that are encouring more and more to get 2-3 children.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

Europe is in a Technical Recession, that is not the same as an fullblown recession like Russia is in.

Europe have much more to stand with in a recsseion so this is not a problem at the moment.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

Everyone in Nato are stronglty connected, Everyone use more on military spending and aim for the 2%.

Yes Hungary make some issues, but they not vital for Nato.

And then Turkey which are trying to get something Either F35 or something else from the USA.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

Maybe in underdeveloped countries like in Africa he is this, but one thing is a Rating, another is real power.

To think Putin have more power now then before, that just insanity.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

Sorry what?

The national budget is in like 60% defict, the Army is poor, they can't even protect their own inland.

They shooting missiles and drones that in 95% of the cases are getting shot down.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

Yes some is getting destroyed, but I can tell you that the infrastructure in general are getting better and better everywhere.

Ukrain even drilling new gass wells every month to prepare to be 100% self suffiant and in longer term cut Russia away from Europe.

-China is stronger.

I think China is same strengt as before, their army is build to maintain the defence in asia, and to try and capture Taiwan, they are not ready for a long war with ex. USA that can maintain armyes half way around the world.

You really need to research on your things before typying nonsense like you just did, or maybe just Come to Ukrain and we can show you what's going on here and why they will win.

[VinDici]

Yes, and I said I was wrong.

What about RuZZia dumbfuck, start there before you begin with lies about Ukraine?

-woman / children are leaving the country in droves, running to Argentina to have babies with another nationality, because everyone is disgusted with Orc blood.

-the men are being killed and turned into cubes of meat.

-no one is having babies, because Muscovite cunts are stealing them and taking them back to Mordor to indoctrinate them.

-RuZZia and it's companies are in their worst economic recession and crisis.

-NATO is stronger than ever before with Finland joining and Sweden on the pathway.

-Putin is fucked.

-Russia is fucked.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed by RuZZians that cannot stop committing war crimes, because they are cowardly pieces of shit.

-China is stronger than Ruzzia which has become its vassal state. RuZZia is to China, what Belarus is to RuZZia, what an own goal.

[Tiny 12]

I don't know how many of you here are infact on the ground and in Ukriane.

But I am.

Isolated numbers paint a distorted picture. First, your 4. 5 % has zero credibility because Russians know how to cook the books. When, occasionally, they're not lying, you might see numbers that make some sense.

Good posts gentlemen. Hestendk, thanks for your "on the ground perspective. " Very interesting, I hope you'll tell us more.

You've made a good case that Russia's military expenditures are actually higher than what they claim. From the Wilson and Bloomberg links though, it looks to me like they're still spending substantially less, both as a % of GDP and the total Russian federal expenditures, than we were in the 1960's. And perhaps around the same or not much more than we were as a % of GDP in the 1970's and 1980's. Furthermore, the numbers in Xpartan's links point towards an actual Russian federal budget deficit of less than 4% of GDP in 2023. Ours was 12% of GDP in 2021 and 5. 4% in 2022.

If you want to verify, please note that Russia's federal government expenditures were typically about 18% of GDP. And these charts show USA Defense expenditures as a % of GDP, and total USA Federal expenditures as a % of GDP.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...defense-budget

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S

Russia's Achilles heal may be that it's very dependent on revenues from taxation from oil and gas. I suspect they have a bigger underground economy than we do, so it will be more difficult to raise money from increasing the income tax.

As to sanctions, they didn't work very well for Cuba, Iran or North Korea. I don't think they'll work well on Russia either. As to the $300 billion in reserves, Russia's effectively confiscating western assets as well.

One caveat, if Hestendk's correct that Russia spent 40% of annual budgeted military expenditures in January and February, and Xpartan's right about spending the annual military budget by April, and if they continue spending at that rate, then that's going to be big burden on the country. And possibly DramaFree's right, the Russians may unfortunately make headway in months to come, and many more Ukrainian and Russian lives will be lost, because they're pumping more resources into the war. Where did you get that info? I'm not seeing it in Xpartan's links.

[Tiny 12]

First of all, even if this "Nato Promise" fairytale weren't a Russian propaganda piece, it wouldn't justify Putin's war. So I'm not sure why you had to bring it to this thread.

Secondly, beating a dead horse over and over is cruel. Let the poor animal rest in peace already.

I may have misinterpreted VinDici's post, "RuZZians leave the territory of Ukraine and respect the 1991 borders and treaties they signed. " I thought he was referring to the negotiations and treaty between the west and Russia in 1990 and 1991 that resulted in the unification of Germany. And was part of the reason the Soviet republics disbanded their union and also allowed for the disbandment of the Warsaw Pact. Russia believed it was duped by the west IMHO. You ably presented the other side of the argument. The links were just for VinDici's edification. And yes, maybe he didn't need edifying, because he may have been thinking about something completely different.

[DramaFree11]

I'll remember this dumbass, and in September we will remind you about your retarded prediction, that is if you haven't been made into a cube of meat by then.

Yes, and I said I was wrong. Again at what cost, Ukraine is slowly being destroyed.

-woman / children are leaving the country.

-the men are being killed.

-no one is having babies.

-Europe and other parts of the world are in Recessions.

-NATO is mess and falling apart.

-Putin is as strong as ever, in certain parts of the world even stronger.

-Russia is much stronger then before.

-Ukraine infrastructure is being destroyed.

-China is stronger.

I can go on. Ukraine and there Allie's are getting destroyed and humiliated.

[The Cane]

I'll remember this dumbass, and in September we will remind you about your retarded prediction, that is if you haven't been made into a cube of meat by then.

A cube of meat LOLOLOL! SPAM which precisely describes his posts LMAO!