Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

The single most important thing we can do is precisely to analyze, etc. Ukraine got into this mess because it didn't think. To get out of the mess, it has to start thinking or get help thinking, especially from those of us comfortably sitting outside Ukraine and thus able to keep our minds from getting carried away by emotions.

First, I think most Ukrainians, in or out of the country, would say that the single most important thing is for those in Ukraine not to die. Survival being one of those fundamental Maslow's Hierarchy kinds of things, not much else is going to capture their attention.

So far, my attempts to talk sense to Ukrainians have resulted mostly in furious accusations that I'm a Russian troll, followed by banning me from forums.

Wow, I'm shocked (sarc)! Did you really expect any other reaction? There's such a thing as timing, and the time to instruct a mother on how her child should have safely crossed the street is not when the kid is in the ICU after being hit by a car.

Any Ukrainians you personally know will likely take the view that you're not there, and can't know what they're going through, and should therefore STFU. And, since the vast majority of forums (that I've seen) are pro-Ukraine, it's not surprising to see the same reaction.

Wringing one's hands about the suffering of the unfortunates is women's work. Men can either fight or think. I don't pretend to be much of a fighter myself. However, I respect those who can and do fight, and I expect them in turn to respect me for my contribution, which is to think.

From what I've seen, BOTH Ukrainian men and women are fighting AND mourning, as those two activities are not mutually exclusive. As far as respect is concerned, it has to be earned. Right now they're busy trying to save their country, so it's not surprising if they don't have time or patience for comments from the peanut gallery. And, as far as your contribution is concerned, that leads to my next point.

Prior to the invasion, I was thinking and advocating that Ukraine simply capitulate to all of Putin's demands and I still think that's the best way forwards,

One big problem with your comment is that it's nothing Ukrainians haven't heard, and rejected, from a host of different sources. Are you really surprised at not getting a positive reaction? I'm certainly not. Another problem is assuming Putin's list of demands is static, rather than dynamic. Ukrainians would prefer not to find out.

I'm just doing here in this thread what comes naturally to me. Much easier to speak my mind and be condemned for it than be silent.

And I think that's perfectly fine, which is why I'm doing the same thing. But right now, in all the Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian forums, I'm doing nothing but expressing support. They're understandably in a siege mentality, and perceive anyone who isn't for them as being against them. Whether they're right or wrong is immaterial, that's simply their current (and understandable) mindset.

[Edward5]

Kyiv UkraineAs shells have begun exploding in the heart of Kyiv, museums have rushed to protect their most prized, valuable pieces: the original artwork of once-in-a-generation talent Hunter Biden.

Funny post. From what I can determine is that there were vast oil and gas reserves in Eastern Ukraine, the 2nd largest in Europe. The only problem is that the separatists and Russia were in that area.

I believe that Hunter Biden was on the board to deal with these issues and to get NATO in Ukraine to basically kick out the Russians and get to this oil and gas.

I really believe that this conflict on interest, having Biden Son paid for influence, made Biden not act independently and what was best for USA and the World. Instead, Biden acted on the money he was getting through his son. He then did what he was paid to do, say NO to Russia and get NATO into the country.

Putin would not have this and this is the cause of the problems.

[DramaFree11]

The single most important thing we can do is precisely to analyze, etc. Ukraine got into this mess because it didn't think. To get out of the mess, it has to start thinking or get help thinking, especially from those of us comfortably sitting outside Ukraine and thus able to keep our minds from getting carried away by emotions.

So far, my attempts to talk sense to Ukrainians have resulted mostly in furious accusations that I'm a Russian troll, followed by banning me from forums. If everyone talking sense is accused of being a troll (and that's what I'm seeing), then Ukraine is truly in bad shape and will likely be dealt with like a stupid, strong and rebellious bull: beaten senseless, a ring put through the nose, maybe castrated to permanently calm it down.

Wringing one's hands about the suffering of the unfortunates is women's work. Men can either fight or think. I don't pretend to be much of a fighter myself. However, I respect those who can and do fight, and I expect them in turn to respect me for my contribution, which is to think. Prior to the invasion, I was thinking and advocating that Ukraine simply capitulate to all of Putin's demands and I still think that's the best way forwards, unless someone can convince me that a coup is going to happen very soon, and that suffering now will be compensated for by a safer and more prosperous future after Putin is gone. I'm ready to believe a coup MIGHT happen, but I have my doubts about it happening soon or that those who take over after Putin will be significantly nicer than him.

Everyone has over played there hands on this one and media is making everything even worse. Ukraine decided to take on a bully and is getting absolutely destroyed as result. Any deal is good deal at this point, nobody is coming to help them and if thought that was going to happen, maybe one of the biggest miscalculation of all time.

I do feel sorry for the people that could not leave, but I have very sympathy for Ukraine government, they are completely delusional, but this should not be surprise.

[Jmsuttr]

I just saw that Bolton said. If Trump would have won his re election. He would have pulled the USA out of NATO.

And that is what Putin wanted. So, he could put the USSR back together. WOW.

First, he and the Trump administration did not part on good terms, as I recall, so there's the disgruntled ex-employee thing. Second, it's always bothered me that he tends to talk in hyperbolic terms, and seems to think that he's the smartest guy in the room and everyone else is an idiot.

For (at least) those two reasons, I'd take his comments with a huge shaker of salt. Also, as I checked today's news I briefly scanned an article about Bolton that characterized the statement about pulling the US out of NATO as something he (Bolton) thought or felt would happen. I didn't see a reference to any definitive statement to that effect. If I missed something, or if more clarifying info has surfaced, I'm certainly open to correction. But it also strikes me that something as momentous as renouncing our NATO treaty obligations is not something that any president could do unilaterally.

[Jmsuttr]

He's contradicting himself all the time. First he admits that Ukraine is a special project for Putin who's trying to restore the empire. Then in the same breath, he blames Biden for lifting objections to Nord 2 as if that emboldened Russia to invade. Makes no sense. That's not an analyses, that's a collection of soundbites.

The reason I posted the link was as a contrast to those who focus exclusively on one individual, Trump or Biden or whoever, as being the primary or proximate cause of the current situation. Whether you agree with Ferguson isn't important. The point is to engage in a discussion that casts a net wide enough to hopefully capture all (or most) of the possibilities and probabilities.

There are "experts" with opinions (and that's all they are) all over the place. The ones I ignore are those who are overly dogmatic, think they've got it all figured out, and fail to acknowledge how much is uncertain and how much they don't know. IMO, experts, real or self-styled, will be debating and analyzing these issues for years.

[Ozzie1451]

But what else can I do?

You can keep your mouth shut.

[PedroMorales]

The single most important thing we can do is precisely to analyze, etc.

True enough. But thought is beyond the feeble minds of XPartan and other Dixiuecrat yobs who spew their bile like the loud, ugly, ignorant Americans they are. "Analyze" away but know most Dixiecrats here are brain dead and many of them were involved in war crimes in Syria, EyeRak and Afghanistan.

I saw an ad that Ukrainian mail order brides are 50% off. Maybe they could get more XPartan gran papas to volunteer if they gave 99% off? Just a thought.

[Jojosun]

What news I watch has not had media reports saying that Ukraine is winning. I watch major news orginzations like Reuters and BBC and there is not media reports saying that Ukraine is winning. None. I do not know where others get their news. All people are saying is that Ukrainians are putting up a better fight than Russian thought they would but not under any delusion that they are are winning. The foreign fighters who go there are doing so on moral grounds and I hope they have some understanding that what they will need to do is guerrilla warfare because that is what needs to be happening right now. Ukrainians cannot hope to match the Russians on convententional terms. No one I read is saying they are winning.

I was ultralight infantry and we studied guerrilla warfare. Yes I should not be armchair quarterbacking because I am not ont he ground, but I heard that the Ukraine military called for their forces to go guerrilla warfare. I was light infantry for 6 years. We studied and practiced how to operate and move in small groups to be undetected and then link up and do larger operations. Although that depends on woods for cover too. They need to send them some on-off road scooters, or dual sport motorcycles (muffle the shit out of them) and have a guy on the back with a rocket launcher. And do fast attack and stick and run techiniques. Smaller quicker agile groups can do damage with those Javelins (shoulder operated missile) we are sending them and some RPGs. They could do link up operations where 30 or 40 of them meet up near the Russian formation on On-off road dual sport motorcycles and hit them hard and then escape cross country throught the trees. If I was 20 years younger I would conisder going there myself.

Interesting video, US Military Veteran on the war in Ukraine. https://video.foxnews.com/v/6299099588001/#sp=show-clips.

The decorated combat veteran says the USA Should stay out of the conflict in Ukraine, adding it will create a far more severe humanitarian.

[ColoradoHobby]

If Ukrainians really are fully prepared to die, see their family and friends die, and see their country bombed into rubble, before they concede anything to Russia, well okay, it's their lives and their country. Problem I see is that Ukrainians don't actually think this, but have become confused by big words like "appeasement" and "sovereign" (as in "sovereign right to decide their own future") so that they can't think straight. In particular, they haven't really thought about which hill they are truly prepared to die on.

Hard disagree. Keep in mind that, Russian speaking enclaves aside, the only thing Ukrainians agree on is that they don't want to be under the control of Moscow again, whatever that costs them.

the Russian people have it worse, because they are directly under Putin's control, rather than at one remove from Putin. And the ancestors of both modern Ukrainians and modern Russians lived under Stalin's boot and the Tsar's boot before that. The Chinese people live under a more fiendishly repressive regime than than of Stalin, while North Korea makes China look like paradise. Most of Africa is worse than Russia. Etc, etc.

Freedom and repression are relative terms, yes, but to suggest that Russians are worse off than, say, Belarusians, because the Belarusians are once removed from Putin's control because Lukashenko is some sort of moderating force is both absurd and patently uninformed.

To suggest that the current Chinese regime is more "fiendishly repressive" than Stalin is similarly misinformed. Sure, the level of surveillance and censorship present in modern day China represents a significant leap over that of the USSR under Stalin, but unlike the USSR during that period, that surveillance and censorship is surgically wielded to protect the political power of the CCCCP and largely ignores matters outside that realm, whereas the cult of personality that rose up around (and fostered by) Stalin endeavored to control every single aspect of society from politics to fashion to love & marriage.

Although it's certainly true that the DPRK makes China look like a paradise, it's precisely because modern China is NOT more repressive than the USSR under Stalin, but rather that the "Juche Ideal" fostered under three generations of Kim leaders represents the cynical perfection of Stalinist thought, elevating the Kim dynasty to god-like status.

Whether, in fact, "Africa is worse than Russia" is back to my point about freedom and repression. Statutorily, most Africans have an enormous amount of personal freedom, arguably more than in many Western nations. Their repression comes at the hands of religion, non-governmental warlords and criminal factions, family, culture, racism, and, most importantly, poverty, which limit the opportunities of individuals to exercise their freedoms. And, let's be honest, most Americans and Europeans struggle to comprehend either the vastness or variety found in Africa and so find it easy to lump its nations together while discounting that the vast majority of African nations and people do not match the established stereotype of malnourished and dusty children bedeviled by flys and famine.

Right now, Ukrainians are taking an enormous risk, hoping they can frustrate Russia long enough to cause a coup and whoever replaces Putin will cancel the invasion. If this plan works, great. Otherwise, Ukraine could end up economically destroyed and presided over by some thug puppet ruler who makes Putin look like a nice guy. This is what happened to Chechnya. Downside risk is very high, odds very poor. Best course of action is thus to simply give Putin everything he wants, so that the bleeding is stopped and Ukraine can begin the difficult work of repairing all the damage. If the keyboard warriors don't like this, let them personally infiltrate Russia and attempt to assassinate Putin, but stop playing games with other people's lives.

Again, hard disagree. There are a LOT of potential outcomes other than these two. Further, your accurate contention that Kadyrov is a thug puppet ruler directly contradicts your notion that being once removed from Putin is "better."

Potential outcomes I see as realistic:

Ukraine falls to Russia. Puppet regime installed. Current government goes into exile and partisans continue guerilla warfare, with support from West, with no short term success strategy. Emboldened Putin repeats strategy in Baltic States. NATO Article 5 invoked leading to all out war. Nuclear forces potentially in play.

Ukraine falls to Russia. Puppet regime installed. Current government and its remaining military goes into exile in Poland / Hungary / Moldova. Russia pursues Ukrainian forces onto NATO territory leading to all out war. Nuclear forces potentially in play.

Russia solidifies hold on Crimea and the Donbas, annexing the latter and Transnistria. Russian troops withdraw from central and western Ukraine. Putin declares "special military operation" a success, while continuing to garrison large numbers of forces along the new and existing borders. Ukraine and the West recognize the new borders.

Russia withdraws completely from Ukraine except Crimea and the Donbas. Putin declares success and pledges to respect Ukrainian self-determination in exchange for assurances that Ukraine be excluded from NATO and the EU.

Russia reacts to slow progress and setbacks by committing wide-spread and large scale atrocities against civilians which generates groundswell (manufactured or real) of calls for direct military involvement from NATO nations (from no-fly zones to drone attacks to boots on ground). Russian reaction to direct engagement is either to threaten / use nukes to achieve goals like security guarantees or recognition of Russian sovereignty in Crimea / Donbas / Transnistria or use the direct involvement to raise popular support for defense of the motherland at home.

If there is a "coup", it'll be a quiet coup, where Putin resigns citing ill health, or an orchestrated electoral "coup" where he declines to run again. The idea of the Russian military taking direct control of the state, even temporarily, is unlikely unless losses are far worse than even the Ukrainians' most optimistic estimates or if there is an order for a nuclear first strike on NATO.

In any scenario where an independent Ukraine exists, I think it exceedingly likely that the West will use its "victory" as an opportunity to pour money into Ukraine in some sort of modern Marshall Plan with an eye to making them an example of what "could be".

[WyattEarp]

People starting to think Putin's new plan is to simply destroy Ukraine, which will effectively ensure it can't join NATO or EU or have a powerful military, which were 3 of his 5 demands (other are acceptance that Crimea is permanently Russian territory and autonomy for Donbas, both of which are done deeds). Beating the living cr*p out of Ukraine has the additional advantage that no one will forget the lesson (that Russia is not to be messed with) for a long time to come.

It won't be just destroyed buildings. It will also be destroyed economy system, so no money to repair the destroyed buildings, and destroyed social fabric. No money to pay police, so lots of petty street crime plus lots of more serious crime (assassinations, bombings) by gangs armed with powerful weapons. No money for healthcare system, so rampant AIDS and other communicable diseases. Girls with options all gone to other countries. Hardly an attractive place to visit.

You seemed to be describing the Putin end game that he has achieved or will achieve. The problem is at what cost for Russia. As long as Putin rules Russia, I don't see the West reestablishing normal ties with Russia. Do the Russian people want to go back to isolation and a stagnant economic outlook?

[The Cane]

But his "line in the sand" helped to rid Assad's regime of its chemical weapon arsenal. Do you have any doubt in your mind that Assad would have used that arsenal to wipe out even more people? My point is, the "line" worked. I honestly don't get why even sensible people believe it was a defeat.

Well, like most people, I happen to think that it absolutely did not work. And made Obama look quite weak. But hey, thanks for believing that I'm usually more sensible LOL!

[Kozerog]

Was meant primarily with Ukrainians in mind. For any who are sitting in a comfortable chair, and typing on a keyboard in the warmth of a nicely heated and illuminated abode, feel free to analyze, pseudo-analyze, blame, pontificate, justify, or whatever, to your heart's content.

But such activities have little point or worth for people who are dodging bullets and bombs. For them it's about survival. And it's those unfortunates who are uppermost in my concerns.

The single most important thing we can do is precisely to analyze, etc. Ukraine got into this mess because it didn't think. To get out of the mess, it has to start thinking or get help thinking, especially from those of us comfortably sitting outside Ukraine and thus able to keep our minds from getting carried away by emotions.

So far, my attempts to talk sense to Ukrainians have resulted mostly in furious accusations that I'm a Russian troll, followed by banning me from forums. If everyone talking sense is accused of being a troll (and that's what I'm seeing), then Ukraine is truly in bad shape and will likely be dealt with like a stupid, strong and rebellious bull: beaten senseless, a ring put through the nose, maybe castrated to permanently calm it down.

Wringing one's hands about the suffering of the unfortunates is women's work. Men can either fight or think. I don't pretend to be much of a fighter myself. However, I respect those who can and do fight, and I expect them in turn to respect me for my contribution, which is to think. Prior to the invasion, I was thinking and advocating that Ukraine simply capitulate to all of Putin's demands and I still think that's the best way forwards, unless someone can convince me that a coup is going to happen very soon, and that suffering now will be compensated for by a safer and more prosperous future after Putin is gone. I'm ready to believe a coup MIGHT happen, but I have my doubts about it happening soon or that those who take over after Putin will be significantly nicer than him.

Of course, people will laugh at the idea that posting in the "Stupid Shit in Kiev" forum at ISG is helping Ukraine to think. But what else can I do? I was banned as a troll from numerous forums prior to the invasion, and now that the war is on, I'm reluctant to sap morale by planting doubts in the heads of those fighting. Regardless, my role in society, including every organization I ever worked at, was and is to think outside the box, and I do that very well because I don't care about social status. (Which is why it never bothered me to tell people "sure I pay women for sex, because much easier than trying to woo them into giving free sex".) I'm just doing here in this thread what comes naturally to me. Much easier to speak my mind and be condemned for it than be silent.

[NaughtyGuru]

But his "line in the sand" helped to rid Assad's regime of its chemical weapon arsenal.

Do you have any evidence he had any arsenal?

[Xpartan]

So, maybe Obama shouldn't have drawn a line in the sand then. Say what you mean, and mean what you say.

But his "line in the sand" helped to rid Assad's regime of its chemical weapon arsenal. Do you have any doubt in your mind that Assad would have used that arsenal to wipe out even more people? My point is, the "line" worked. I honestly don't get why even sensible people believe it was a defeat.

[Kozerog]

News from my former Russian teacher. Russians bombed her native village about 20 km from Kyiv, maybe because there was some military base nearby. Some bombs hit civilian areas, including a school and orphanage. Another bomb landed near her parent's house and shattered all the windows. Her parents spent 2 days in their basement sheltering from the bombing. While she was in a taxi to Kyiv train station, car in front of the taxi was fired upon. Finally, she got on the train to Lviv, where she is currently in a shelter, with plans to move permanently to Western Europe, where she has friends. She's fully fluent in English herself and used to manage an English language call center, so she should integrate easily.

(It occurred to my suspicious mind that she might be lying about her experiences to get money out of me. She didn't ask for money, but she knows me well enough to know I'd offer to send some. Anyway, I'm very happy with the results of our Russian conversation practice, so the money can be considered delayed payment for services rendered.).

People starting to think Putin's new plan is to simply destroy Ukraine, which will effectively ensure it can't join NATO or EU or have a powerful military, which were 3 of his 5 demands (other are acceptance that Crimea is permanently Russian territory and autonomy for Donbas, both of which are done deeds). Beating the living cr*p out of Ukraine has the additional advantage that no one will forget the lesson (that Russia is not to be messed with) for a long time to come.

It won't be just destroyed buildings. It will also be destroyed economy system, so no money to repair the destroyed buildings, and destroyed social fabric. No money to pay police, so lots of petty street crime plus lots of more serious crime (assassinations, bombings) by gangs armed with powerful weapons. No money for healthcare system, so rampant AIDS and other communicable diseases. Girls with options all gone to other countries. Hardly an attractive place to visit.