Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Kozerog]

Not trying to start a political debate, since that doesn't serve much purpose right now, but just showing that there's no shortage of people at whom we can point the finger.

IMO, political debate absolutely serves a purpose now. Ukraine is about to be destroyed and USA is going to be severely weakened if Russia is handed over to the Chinese. We need to discuss what, if anything, went wrong in order to know what to do next.

I'm completely in agreement with John Mearsheimer (https://www.mearsheimer.com/) that Ukraine was terribly mishandled by the USA, starting in 2008 (G W Bush / Dick Cheney administration). What should have been done is declare that NATO and EU would eventually be replaced by a United States of Europe, which would never include Ukraine, and that Finland, Baltic States and Moldova would be kept demilitarized provided Russia kept Kaliningrad enclave, western Belarus and western Ukraine demilitarized. Nice clean division between west and east Europe, with a demilitarized buffer zone in between. Good fences make good neighbors.

I have no doubt the Ukrainians are brave, determined, filled with angry energy, and thus will fight like lions. Problem is, lions are stupid animals, and what is needed now is not physical courage but rstger brains and moral courage, meaning the courage to make unpopular decisions.

The argument that "we" don't appease dictators is keyboard warrior talk. USA most definitely "appeased" Stalin when it allowed him to swallow up the Baltic States and eastern Europe. USA "appeased" China / Russia by allowing a division of Korea and then a division of Vietnam, before we threw in the towel completely on Vietnam. USA "appeased" China regarding Tibet. USA "appeased" Russia when Russia invaded Georgia and USA did nothing but issue some ineffective sanctions, then same story with Crimea. Etc. USA picks its battles and it walks away when the situation is hopeless, which is normal behavior in the real world, though maybe not in keyboard warrior land.

If Ukrainians really are fully prepared to die, see their family and friends die, and see their country bombed into rubble, before they concede anything to Russia, well okay, it's their lives and their country. Problem I see is that Ukrainians don't actually think this, but have become confused by big words like "appeasement" and "sovereign" (as in "sovereign right to decide their own future") so that they can't think straight. In particular, they haven't really thought about which hill they are truly prepared to die on.

I understand that Ukrainians don't like living under Russia's boot. But the Russian people have it worse, because they are directly under Putin's control, rather than at one remove from Putin. And the ancestors of both modern Ukrainians and modern Russians lived under Stalin's boot and the Tsar's boot before that. The Chinese people live under a more fiendishly repressive regime than than of Stalin, while North Korea makes China look like paradise. Most of Africa is worse than Russia. Etc, etc.

Right now, Ukrainians are taking an enormous risk, hoping they can frustrate Russia long enough to cause a coup and whoever replaces Putin will cancel the invasion. If this plan works, great. Otherwise, Ukraine could end up economically destroyed and presided over by some thug puppet ruler who makes Putin look like a nice guy. This is what happened to Chechnya. Downside risk is very high, odds very poor. Best course of action is thus to simply give Putin everything he wants, so that the bleeding is stopped and Ukraine can begin the difficult work of repairing all the damage. If the keyboard warriors don't like this, let them personally infiltrate Russia and attempt to assassinate Putin, but stop playing games with other people's lives.

[Bill1963]

First of all yes, Putin is one of the last commies in power left who thinks that the demise of the Soviet Union was a bad thing. I know that the majority of the people who lived under the thumb of the Soviet Union, including the Russian people themselves, don't agree him. And yes again, Obama showed absolute weakness when his "red line" in Syria was crossed, and then he did nothing (I saw the same interview). But the four years of the Trump presidency caused considerably more damage and only exacerbated things, and can't be simply glossed over as inconsequential and having no significant influence on what has happened. As I said, he damaged the strongest democracy the world has ever known and energized damaging division within his own country, he drove a dangerous wedge between America and its NATO allies, and he kissed up to Putin and the Ruskies in a way that no other American president ever has. It was really truly stunning to watch it. Now please understand me well. My comments are not about "left" and "right". No, they are about "Trumpism" and the incredible damage its done to America and the world. It will be much studied and written about. You're damn right the Ruskies wanted Trump in power and did things to help make that happen. "Russia if you're listening"! (Remember who said that? Putin had to love it). No my friend, this is not about left and right. In fact, a couple of guys on the right were 100% correct. "Peace through strength" (Ronald Reagan) and "I looked in his eyes and saw three letters: KGB" (John McCain).

Let's get one thing straight here after that drivel you wrote.

100% of this situation falls at the feet of Biden and the fools he has surrounded himself with.

There is zero blame on trump or Obama.

Weak losers blame others for their mistakes and failures.

Biden has had 15 months to steer this in a totally different direction.

The Ukrainian people are paying a price now because Biden is a useless tool.

[Jmsuttr]

First of all yes, Putin is one of the last commies in power left who thinks that the demise of the Soviet Union was a bad thing. I know that the majority of the people who lived under the thumb of the Soviet Union, including the Russian people themselves, don't agree him. And yes again, Obama showed absolute weakness when his "red line" in Syria was crossed, and then he did nothing (I saw the same interview). But the four years of the Trump presidency caused considerably more damage and only exacerbated things, and can't be simply glossed over as inconsequential and having no significant influence on what has happened. As I said, he damaged the strongest democracy the world has ever known and energized damaging division within his own country, he drove a dangerous wedge between America and its NATO allies, and he kissed up to Putin and the Ruskies in a way that no other American president ever has. It was really truly stunning to watch it. Now please understand me well. My comments are not about "left" and "right". No, they are about "Trumpism" and the incredible damage its done to America and the world. It will be much studied and written about. You're damn right the Ruskies wanted Trump in power and did things to help make that happen. "Russia if you're listening"! (Remember who said that? Putin had to love it). No my friend, this is not about left and right. In fact, a couple of guys on the right were 100% correct. "Peace through strength" (Ronald Reagan) and "I looked in his eyes and saw three letters: KGB" (John McCain).

But my point is simply that Putin's mentality and ambition long preceded Trump and that, had Trump never become president, Putin's trajectory would have remained the same.

So, since this has been stewing in Putin's noggin since probably the early 90's, looking for a causal event in the last few years runs the risk of being influenced by recency bias.

Whether one hates Trump and blames him for all the ills of the world, or does the same with Obama or Biden, the fact remains that Putin was going to go down this path no matter what. So whoever happened to be president of the US, or France, or PM of the UK, or Chancellor of Germany, is essentially irrelevant because no one was going to prevent Putin from trying to reclaim the glory of Greater Russia.

The only possible way a former or current world leader might have made a material difference is if he or she had successfully brought about regime change in Russia. But that was never in the cards and never seriously discussed, until now.

So feel free to blame Trump, while others blame Bush, Obama, or Biden. As far as I'm concerned, you're all equally correct, and equally wrong. That's because I still maintain that none of those leaders would have changed the reality Ukraine faces today.

[Xpartan]

You have to read between the lines of both USA and Russian propaganda, not just one side. Another possibility is that Putin is acting crazy with threats of nuclear war to get the USA to finally take his demands seriously. From the Russian military point of view, demanding that Ukraine remain permanently neutral or aligned with Russia (thus not in NATO or EU, both of which will eventually be replaced by a United States of Europe) is not unreasonable. This issue goes back to 2008 and Russians have lost patience at being ignored so long.

IMO, USA and Ukraine have both been very foolish to be so obstinate about this issue. Capitulating to Russia's demands on this issue is probably the best way to end this war quickly. Russian military doesn't care about the suffering of Russian oligarchs or Russian people, and only Russian military can carry out a coup.

Right, this is why Putin is methodically leveling Kiev - "the mother of all Russian cities" - and Kharkiv where there are more ethnic Russians than Ukrainians. Because he's scared of NATO. Yeah, it's totally not unreasonable to demand that an independent country disarm (having peaceful Russia as a neighbor, no less) and also spread its legs and butt-cheeks while it's at it.

You wouldn't be working for RT by any chance, would you? Because you're spreading the same garbage.

I've heard that garbage before.

[Mojo Bandit]

Obstinate about freedom, in the Land of the Free gets you cancelled and labelled a domestic terrorist. And, no, this has nothing to do with political parties, or which one is occupying the POTUS Office. Your people who would 'kill and die' before giving up their freedoms have surrendered to a vaccine mandate and submitted to a government that represents corporate interests and the oligarchs and not the interests of The People. Don't be naively taken and misdirected by interests that only want to make Ukraine safe for capitalist exploitation. And, no, this has nothing to do with socialist communism -- that's been consigned to the dustbin of history a generation ago. Freedom starts at home. If you cared about freedom, you wouldn't let these bandits steal your mojo, you'd take care of your own business instead of minding someone else's.

No body has stolen my mojo it is in fine form but thank you for the concern. But I do not understand why you responded to my comment. You seem to want to change the subject. I was stating a fact that no demacracy gives into appeasement of a dictator. You seem to be worried about other things. Vaccines and being accused of being a terrorist. And I feel for you, you seem to have genuine complaints. Its just that I am not under any mandate to get a vaccine and no one is calling me a terrorist. But I am sorry that you have to deal with these problems. I am still going to have to stick to my original point though. It is a fact that no democracy is going to turn their foreign policy over to the demands of a spoiled brat dictator.

[Nounce]

Nord Stream 2 LOL.

[Golfinho]

I'm doubtful that any current or recent president (Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden) would have had any material effect on Putin's ambition to rebuild Greater Russia. . His desire to reverse that event meant that it was only a matter of time and that which country.

I'm doubtful that any recent president or the (only) current one would have had any material effect on the ambitions of the neocons and dual loyalists in control of US foreign policy to effect regime change in Russia in order to control and exploit their natural resources and economy. Their desire and policy meant it was only a matter of time before they instigated another war on Russia's border.

[Kabukicho]

As I said, he damaged the strongest democracy the world has ever known and energized damaging division within his own country, he drove a dangerous wedge between America and its NATO allies, and he kissed up to Putin and the Ruskies in a way that no other American president ever has. It was really truly stunning to watch it.

Yep, during his presidency, I saw a wtf?

If trump was able to be just as strong against our allies, as to putin, we'd be okay but that was not the case as well as I had another wtf, when the trump lovers didn't ever seem to see that.

If he also could have been more to putin, the same way he was with China, we'd have been better off too. China just waited until his 4 yrs were up.

It was just too odd, it felt like putin had something on him, as if trump would be capable of being embarassed by something.

when trump was pressured to check with putin about the allegations of bounties on usa troops, trump deflected/protected russia. that was disgusting.

[Vagabundo1]

Pornhub and onlyfans turned off for Russia. Game Over?

Jesus. Talk about a weapon of mass destruction.

[The Cane]

I'm doubtful that any current or recent president (Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden) would have had any material effect on Putin's ambition to rebuild Greater Russia. Over the years Putin has said on many occasions that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a great tragedy. His desire to reverse that event meant that it was only a matter of time and that which country he chose (Ukraine, Poland, Baltics) would be only a matter of which opportunity presented itself first.

FYI, I saw an interview with Garry Kasparov, Russian dissident and former world chess champion, in which he blamed Obama for showing weakness when he proclaimed a "red line" in Syria (over use of chemical weapons) and then failed to do anything when it was crossed. In Kasparov's view, that showed Putin that tough talk was unlikely to be backed up by action. Not trying to start a political debate, since that doesn't serve much purpose right now, but just showing that there's no shortage of people at whom we can point the finger.

So, while it might make people on the left or right feel better to blame one politician or the other, IMO this has been brewing for a long time and Putin was going to do what he wanted, no matter what.

First of all yes, Putin is one of the last commies in power left who thinks that the demise of the Soviet Union was a bad thing. I know that the majority of the people who lived under the thumb of the Soviet Union, including the Russian people themselves, don't agree him. And yes again, Obama showed absolute weakness when his "red line" in Syria was crossed, and then he did nothing (I saw the same interview). But the four years of the Trump presidency caused considerably more damage and only exacerbated things, and can't be simply glossed over as inconsequential and having no significant influence on what has happened. As I said, he damaged the strongest democracy the world has ever known and energized damaging division within his own country, he drove a dangerous wedge between America and its NATO allies, and he kissed up to Putin and the Ruskies in a way that no other American president ever has. It was really truly stunning to watch it. Now please understand me well. My comments are not about "left" and "right". No, they are about "Trumpism" and the incredible damage its done to America and the world. It will be much studied and written about. You're damn right the Ruskies wanted Trump in power and did things to help make that happen. "Russia if you're listening"! (Remember who said that? Putin had to love it). No my friend, this is not about left and right. In fact, a couple of guys on the right were 100% correct. "Peace through strength" (Ronald Reagan) and "I looked in his eyes and saw three letters: KGB" (John McCain).

[Jmsuttr]

The reason this happened is because Putin saw the West as weak. Thanks to Donald Trump, American democracy is as weak and divided as its ever been. He drove a wedge between the world's most powerful democracy and its NATO allies. And he sucked up to one of the world's most dangerous dictators. This is why we have war! Peace through strength. And war through weakness! Putin wants Russia to be a great nation? Then it should act like one then.

It can begin by stop threatening its neighbors. This is why they don't like Russia and seek to join NATO. Putin should stop poisoning his political opposition. And dissidents must stop "falling" out of windows. There's a start to "making Russia great again". Ultimately nothing good comes from kissing a dictator's ass. No, if Putin isn't careful, he's going to have his Ruskie ass handed to him on a platter. Maybe even by his own people. It isn't just the oligarchs getting slammed. The everyday Russian is being hurt too. And, it's only just getting started.

I'm doubtful that any current or recent president (Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden) would have had any material effect on Putin's ambition to rebuild Greater Russia. Over the years Putin has said on many occasions that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a great tragedy. His desire to reverse that event meant that it was only a matter of time and that which country he chose (Ukraine, Poland, Baltics) would be only a matter of which opportunity presented itself first.

FYI, I saw an interview with Garry Kasparov, Russian dissident and former world chess champion, in which he blamed Obama for showing weakness when he proclaimed a "red line" in Syria (over use of chemical weapons) and then failed to do anything when it was crossed. In Kasparov's view, that showed Putin that tough talk was unlikely to be backed up by action. Not trying to start a political debate, since that doesn't serve much purpose right now, but just showing that there's no shortage of people at whom we can point the finger.

So, while it might make people on the left or right feel better to blame one politician or the other, IMO this has been brewing for a long time and Putin was going to do what he wanted, no matter what.

[Jmsuttr]

You have to read between the lines of both USA and Russian propaganda, not just one side. Another possibility is that Putin is acting crazy with threats of nuclear war to get the USA to finally take his demands seriously. From the Russian military point of view, demanding that Ukraine remain permanently neutral or aligned with Russia (thus not in NATO or EU, both of which will eventually be replaced by a United States of Europe) is not unreasonable. This issue goes back to 2008 and Russians have lost patience at being ignored so long.

IMO, USA and Ukraine have both been very foolish to be so obstinate about this issue. Capitulating to Russia's demands on this issue is probably the best way to end this war quickly. Russian military doesn't care about the suffering of Russian oligarchs or Russian people, and only Russian military can carry out a coup.

Almost anything is theoretically "possible" but, without evidence, it's pure speculation. And the problem with reading between the lines is that it's all to easy to see what you want to see. That's why my post gives specific areas in which I'm scanning the news and looking for concrete evidence.

Also, the state of the evidence right now indicates that things are not proceeding in a way that's favorable for Putin. What he thought would be a quick operation has turned into a quagmire. As to Russia's demands, the current state of affairs has essentially flushed the status quo ante down the toilet, along with Russia's previous list of demands. Right now the Ukrainians would rather die defending their land rather than give in to Putin. And the US is fine with supporting Ukraine and squeezing Russia with "death by a thousand cuts" sanctions.

There's no question that Russia can militarily prevail, eventually. But at what cost and will they (Russia) bleed out economically during the meantime? And what happens if Russia takes Kyiv? Putin's idea that Russian domination would be welcomed has been exposed as a fantasy. So that means that any occupation would require force, which means continued costs for pariah-state Russia and never-ending sanctions.

In other words, in all the probable (as opposed to possible) end-scenarios, I don't see any that end well for Putin. And, as far as a coup is concerned, there are various powerful individuals and groups in Russia who I'm sure are quite imaginative. But, even without a coup, what happens if the Russian military experiences unacceptable losses, or desertions, or both? Putin has certainly surrounded himself with a personal Praetorian Guard, but those who are personally loyal to him are not enough to get the job done in Ukraine. Putin is a strongman dictator, which means that weakness or failure will inevitably lead to his demise.

[Golfinho]

Obstinate about freedom? You must not live in a free country if you do not understand. We will kill and die before we give up freedom. If you think that is obstinate than you must not have freedom.. The second you give into demands of a foreign power that is not offering something in return. You have given away your freedom..

Obstinate about freedom, in the Land of the Free gets you cancelled and labelled a domestic terrorist. And, no, this has nothing to do with political parties, or which one is occupying the POTUS Office. Your people who would 'kill and die' before giving up their freedoms have surrendered to a vaccine mandate and submitted to a government that represents corporate interests and the oligarchs and not the interests of The People. Don't be naively taken and misdirected by interests that only want to make Ukraine safe for capitalist exploitation. And, no, this has nothing to do with socialist communism -- that's been consigned to the dustbin of history a generation ago. Freedom starts at home. If you cared about freedom, you wouldn't let these bandits steal your mojo, you'd take care of your own business instead of minding someone else's.

[Golfinho]

Obstinate about freedom? You must not live in a free country if you do not understand. We will kill and die before we give up freedom. If you think that is obstinate than you must not have freedom.. The second you give into demands of a foreign power that is not offering something in return. You have given away your freedom..

Obstinate about freedom in the Land of the Free gets you cancelled and labelled a domestic terrorist. And, no, this has nothing to do with political parties, or which one is occupying the POTUS Office. Your people who would 'kill and die' before giving up their freedoms have surrendered to a vaccine mandate and submitted to a government that represents corporate interests and the oligarchs and not the interests of The People. Don't be naively taken in and misdirected by interests that only want to make Ukraine safe for capitalist exploitation. And, no, this has nothing to do with socialist communism -- that's been consigned to the dustbin of history a generation ago. Freedom starts at home. If you cared about freedom, you wouldn't let these bandits steal your mojo, you'd take care of your own business instead of minding someone else's.

[Explorer8939]

Not much to report, some explosions in Kyiv but we are safe. Travelling to the border right now is not feasible. Russians have promised safe exit to civilians but of course one has to dodge shelling and missile fire. We are fine, staying away from angry Ukrainians and keeping our head down. No mongering to be had and it is not on our mind. Other Ukrainians are still somewhat suspicious of us. Blaming us for our countries not intervening however we are avoiding them and they have stopped attacking us. Such a shame that a country like this has become useless for mongering.

Expect the Russians to try to encircle Kyiv over the next week. If you hear of fighting around Boryspil airport, then the encirclement is almost complete. After the encirclement, you have no chance of getting out of Kyiv without Russian approval. At that point, there will be a siege, unless Kyiv surrenders immediately, and things will become very unpleasant.

If there is still a chance to get out, you might want to take it now. There may be random shelling along the way, but there is going to be massive shelling in Kyiv soon.

Unless the Russian army fails to encircle Kyiv, that would be a world changing event, like Stalingrad.