Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Xpartan]

Russia has massive resources and manpower compared to Ukraine. Right now it's only spending 4. 5% of its GDP on defense.

Isolated numbers paint a distorted picture. First, your 4. 5 % has zero credibility because Russians know how to cook the books. When, occasionally, they're not lying, you might see numbers that make some sense.

The government's priorities in 2023 from the draft budget read with crystal clarity. "The head of state has instructed us to take measures to meet the needs of our Armed Forces and military formations," Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said. Spending on the military and on security services will grow from 24 percent of budget spending projected for 2022 to almost 33 percent in 2023 (9.5 trillion rubles). Spending on the economy will decrease compared to that in 2022, and the small increase in social spending will be eaten up by inflation.

Financing of the military and security services has never before reached such a large share of the federal budget. Spending on homeland security has almost doubled since 2021. Payments to mobilized forces alone may require about 2 trillion rubles. They are made through the Pension Fund, the costs of which will therefore increase by 19 percent. The share of "secret" budget spending (to make it more difficult to estimate the cost of the war) has increased from 16 percent to 22.4 percent. The financing of patriotic programs in schools has increased sixfold. The elections of 2024 will surely require direct unscheduled payments to the population, which will increase the deficit.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-po...den-population

But mostly they lie.

Russia is keeping an unprecedented one-third of its budget spending out of the public eye, a stark measure of how a year of war against Ukraine has redrawn government finances and economic priorities.

Classified or unspecified expenditure through March 24 has surged to 2.4 trillion rubles ($31 billion), Finance Ministry data show, more than double the level in the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg Economicss estimates. Plans set out for 2023 envisaged the budgets secret share at almost a quarter, Bloomberg calculations show.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ussia-s-budget

Look at the diagram in the article while you're at it. 3 trillion rubles are classified, while only 0. 5 and 0. 3 are spent on defense and security respectively. Yeah, right!

To conclude, your official 4. 5 % GDP means exactly dick, as they say in Men in Black, but even that puny number is over 10 times more than they spent in Afghanistan (0. 4 % and please keep in mind that back then they weren't as "creative" with numbers as they are today.

Here are a few more things that make their 4. 5 % miracle number even less impressive.

1. Wholesale thievery. You would presume that outright theft and corruption in the Army are dealt with now that there is a war raging. Well, you'd presume wrong, LOL.

2. 340,000 of armed people along with heavy military equipment are stationed far away from the front lines (National Guards). Guess who get better pay and way better benefits than the cannon fodder they throw at the enemy. Putin will need them to crush mass dissent on the Day X, which he know is coming.

3. $300 billion frozen Russia's Central Bank assets.

4. Sanctions! Yes they sell energy bars to China and India (at a huge discount), but spending rupees and yuan is not exactly straightforward.

5. From January to April 2023 Russia already spent it yearly budget (Russia stopped publishing data on budget spending in June).

And yes, there is the potential for World War III. Russia's former prime minister and president, Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's closest cronies, said Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons, more than once. Putin's kind of said the same thing. And they're not just referring to tactical weapons, but also ICBM's.

Yes, there is the potential, but not because of that useless alky. Medvedev might've been a puppet president at one point, but today, he's reduced to a role of an official Kremlin jester. The recent death of Vladimir Zhirinovsky left too much void in the arena of political provocations, so Medvedev was only too eager to apply.

I believe Putin is rational, nationalistic and paranoid. I don't think he's bat shit crazy like Hitler.

Believe what you want, but Hitler wasn't always bat shit crazy. And Putin's days of rational thinking are well behind him. I mean when a dude gets his anus licked incessantly for 20 years -- of course his shit will get to his brain! Come on, that's pure science.

[Tiny 12]

There is a solution fuckwit, RuZZians leave the territory of Ukraine and respect the 1991 borders and treaties they signed. Ask them to stop invading and attacking, not Ukraine to stop defending.

I'd argue that based on the assurances of Baker, Bush, Kohl, Gates and others, the Russians never dreamed NATO would have expanded eastward as far as it did. The Russians felt betrayed. Xpartan disagrees. Please see the Xpartan / Tiny dialogs for more detail.

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...=1#post2829022.

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...=1#post2829138.

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...=1#post2831160.

[Tiny 12]

Look, I understand why you and the New Yorker are skeptical (by the way, the author of this piece is a brother of Masha Gessen who wrote a solid book about Putin). But Russia is not a normal country. It's a country of sudden changes, where things seem the most monolith right before the implosion. Just re-read the passages about the Bolshevik revolution and the "smuta".

I give them a year.

And that's generous.

Russia will lose the war, and may even lose Crimea (this is still uncertain). After they lose, Putin's hold will be untenable and I would predict the collapse of the Federation, if Crimea is lost, then the collapse is pretty much certain. All the vassal states will have lost both their economic future and their men to a pointless war.

You guys can are in total denial, Ukraine is getting its ass kicked. In you liberal world, this is a win. Ukraine will probably lose Odessa in the next couple of months.

My guess is that this will drag on for years, like Afghanistan (versus the USSR or USA, take your pick) or Vietnam. That's unless the USA and Europe are willing to step up to the plate and put an end to this, by providing Putin a face saving way to exit this mess. That might involve some combination of providing a security guarantee to Ukraine, Ukraine formally ceding Crimea and part of the Donbass to Russia, a guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality, and substantial foreign aid to Ukraine to rebuild.

As DramaFree said, many Ukrainians have been and will be killed and displaced. The only winners will be the western defense contractors and the Iranians and others who supply weapons to Russia.

Having read the New Yorker article, I am now an expert and believe there's a 50/50 chance Putin or his surrogate will rule Russia until Putin dies. Which could be a long time. And what happens after he dies? Well, maybe the same thing that happened in Cuba and Venezuela. Nothing, no change in the behavior of the regime. Patrushev (former head of FSB) and Medvedev (see below) are perhaps his likeliest successors and they're just as or more extreme than Putin.

Russia has massive resources and manpower compared to Ukraine. Right now it's only spending 4. 4% of its GDP on defense. That's less than we did from World War II to 1990. A lot less than we were spending in the 1950's and 1960's. And Putin knows if he just ups and leaves Ukraine, it will weaken his position in Russia. Remember there was an unsuccessful revolution in 1905 when Russia was defeated by Japan. Arguably the Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan was tied to the end of the USSR. And the premature withdrawal of Russia from World War I coincided with the abdication of the Tsar and the Bolshevik Revolution. There's little chance that Putin's going to withdraw from Ukraine unless he's somehow allowed to save face.

And yes, there is the potential for World War III. Russia's former prime minister and president, Dmitry Medvedev, one of Putin's closest cronies, said Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons, more than once. Putin's kind of said the same thing. And they're not just referring to tactical weapons, but also ICBM's.

Presumably though Putin has learned his lesson. This will be repetitious for Xpartan, but I believe Putin is rational, nationalistic and paranoid. I don't think he's bat shit crazy like Hitler, and I don't think he's going to do something like try to take over the Baltic states. He got a lot more than he bargained for when he invaded Ukraine, and won't want to repeat the same mistake.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spen...report-1810181

[DramaFree11]

Firstly, don't lump yourself in the same bucket as that Muscovite shill Dramafree, read his post history to see what a complete disingenuous fuckwit he is.

Russia will lose the war, and may even lose Crimea (this is still uncertain). After they lose, Putin's hold will be untenable and I would predict the collapse of the Federation, if Crimea is lost, then the collapse is pretty much certain. All the vassal states will have lost both their economic future and their men to a pointless war.

You guys can are in total denial, Ukraine is getting its ass kicked. In you liberal world, this is a win. Ukraine will probably lose Odessa in the next couple of months.

[Timmy21]

My last visit to Ukraine just over a year ago, oh how I miss my Ukraine. A brief report from my last visit, visited three massage salons Dream (2 occasions), Relax (2 occasions) and Topless. One salon was fair, one salon was good, one salon was absolutely incredible. Spent 10 hours with one girl from Gia, below average experience, my two favorite girls from Gia, Liza who's still on the site and Nina who left maybe a year ago. Called an apartment from the Minuet site, a 19 yr old from Dnipro came for 4 hours, real sweet girl.

Change of subject, the first time I visited Russia (4 trips in total) was May of '92, wonderful time. From what I understand currently, 35 percent of mortgages, 20 percent car loans and 15 percent personal loans are in default in Russia. I believe Russia will collapse (I hope soon), and when it does real estate in Russia may be a good investment; of course, there needs to be some stability in a new government. The reason I mentioned this is because I think the next time I travel to Russia, it will be similar to my '92 visit.

[VinDici]

It provides the views of some experts on Russia and regime change about what may be in store for Putin. My takeaway is that there's a 50% or greater chance that we're stuck dealing with Putin until he voluntarily "retires" or, more likely, dies of natural causes. So the realpolitik favored by DramaFree and me makes more sense than blind, idealistic support for Ukraine. I'm not saying the latter is necessarily what you favor BTW.

Firstly, don't lump yourself in the same bucket as that Muscovite shill Dramafree, read his post history to see what a complete disingenuous fuckwit he is.

Russia will lose the war, and may even lose Crimea (this is still uncertain). After they lose, Putin's hold will be untenable and I would predict the collapse of the Federation, if Crimea is lost, then the collapse is pretty much certain. All the vassal states will have lost both their economic future and their men to a pointless war.

[Xpartan]

Xpartan, this isn't the most entertaining thing I've read in the New Yorker, but you'd probably find it a worthwhile read anyway based on some of your posts.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-w...tin-lose-power

It provides the views of some experts on Russia and regime change about what may be in store for Putin. My takeaway is that there's a 50% or greater chance that we're stuck dealing with Putin until he voluntarily "retires" or, more likely, dies of natural causes. So the realpolitik favored by DramaFree and me makes more sense than blind, idealistic support for Ukraine. I'm not saying the latter is necessarily what you favor BTW.

Why bring Drama into this? He's a paid Russian bot, you aren't. You're just wrong, LOL.

Look, I understand why you and the New Yorker are skeptical (by the way, the author of this piece is a brother of Masha Gessen who wrote a solid book about Putin). But Russia is not a normal country. It's a country of sudden changes, where things seem the most monolith right before the implosion. Just re-read the passages about the Bolshevik revolution and the "smuta".

I give them a year.

And that's generous.

Fuck realpolitic!

[Tiny 12]

Xpartan, this isn't the most entertaining thing I've read in the New Yorker, but you'd probably find it a worthwhile read anyway based on some of your posts.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-w...tin-lose-power

It provides the views of some experts on Russia and regime change about what may be in store for Putin. My takeaway is that there's a 50% or greater chance that we're stuck dealing with Putin until he voluntarily "retires" or, more likely, dies of natural causes. So the realpolitik favored by DramaFree and me makes more sense than blind, idealistic support for Ukraine. I'm not saying the latter is necessarily what you favor BTW.

[VinDici]

Good luck with this. You guys are so out of touch with reality.

Says the RuZZbot without any irony.

[DramaFree11]

There is a solution fuckwit, RuZZians leave the territory of Ukraine and respect the 1991 borders and treaties they signed. Ask them to stop invading and attacking, not Ukraine to stop defending.

Good luck with this. You guys are so out of touch with reality.

[Xpartan]

You simply don't know what you are talking about and aren't following the news at all. This while you continue to exude your doom and gloom cowardice. Thanks to very bad decisions by Russia the world is in a tough spot but cowering to Putin, his nuclear saber rattling, and whoever may follow him is the exact wrong way to go.

By now you should've had a perfect clarity about my views on this war -- in addition to our PM exchanges I've been posting about it for more than a year. But no, somehow, I'm advocating "cowering to Putin"! How about reading my posts (it's fucking short enough!) in their ENTIRETY before lounging your deranged attacks?

Had we supported Ukraine back in 2014 there's a good chance we wouldn't be where we are today. Obama was a wuss in that regard. Biden has been better but still well short of the mark. Ukraine needs to be given what they need to push Russia out of their territory.

When in the holy name of fuck did I say otherwise?

As to your nuclear panics, I couldn't care less about your fear while wimps like you play right into Putin's hand. We need to remain strong while locked and loaded. If Russia plays that hand the consequences must be catastrophic.

https://www.economist.com/europe/202...gets-its-f-16s

Well, there is only one problem, my valiant knight. The only reason why Putin is allowed to live and this war is still raging. Call it "nuclear panics" but this is exactly the state our officials are in.

"We need to remain strong" is a wishful fucking thinking when the White House is busy of keeping Putin in charge of his nukes.

Because god forbid they fall in the wrong hands.

OK, maybe all the above is TL; DR for you, so let me try and make it even easier.

1. As far as I'm concerned, Russia's nukes are already in the wrong hands. We need to work on removing Putin, rather than on keeping him in charge.

2. That said, Putin is a complete and utter coward; he's very unlikely to unleash nuclear weapons, whatever his rhetoric is.

3. We must stop dragging our feet and give the Ukrainians everything they need including F16, long-range HIMARS and ATACMS (and we should've been doing it for a year now).

4. But I'm not optimistic.

Better?

[VinDici]

Great advice. You guys are truly delusional. Ukraine doesn't need any more weapons, they need to find a solution to end this, but you wackos want this war, now you are getting Ukraine destroyed in the process. Great job!

There is a solution fuckwit, RuZZians leave the territory of Ukraine and respect the 1991 borders and treaties they signed. Ask them to stop invading and attacking, not Ukraine to stop defending.

[DramaFree11]

They're not wackos DramaFree. They probably are Lockheed and Raytheon shareholders though.

You might be on to something, but yes they are both crazy as Hell.

[Tiny 12]

Great advice. You guys are truly delusional. Ukraine doesn't need any more weapons, they need to find a solution to end this, but you wackos want this war, now you are getting Ukraine destroyed in the process. Great job!

They're not wackos DramaFree. They probably are Lockheed and Raytheon shareholders though.

[Tiny 12]

You simply don't know what you are talking about and aren't following the news at all. This while you continue to exude your doom and gloom cowardice. Thanks to very bad decisions by Russia the world is in a tough spot but cowering to Putin, his nuclear saber rattling, and whoever may follow him is the exact wrong way to go. Had we supported Ukraine back in 2014 there's a good chance we wouldn't be where we are today. Obama was a wuss in that regard. Biden has been better but still well short of the mark. Ukraine needs to be given what they need to push Russia out of their territory. As to your nuclear panics, I couldn't care less about your fear while wimps like you play right into Putin's hand. We need to remain strong while locked and loaded. If Russia plays that hand the consequences must be catastrophic.

https://www.economist.com/europe/202...gets-its-f-16s

Dear Paulie,

What Xpartan wrote below sounded pretty sensible to me, except, being an optimist, I don't think Russia will go through a "bloody, bloody mess." Or at least nothing as severe as the Bolshevik Revolution and the civil war that followed. It would be great if we could somehow return to the relationship we had with Russia under Yeltsin, although that won't happen with Putin in power.

Ironically, the Economist, which you linked to, published an article recently that pretty much repeated what Xpartan said. He appears to be on your side by the way, at least in his other posts, in wanting to arm Ukraine to the teeth and fight the war to the last Ukrainian. If you want to pin this on cowardly, stingy gloom and doomers, you should look to people like me instead. IMHO, Biden and the USA should be pushing the sides to end this war, in a way that would insure the security of those on Ukrainian soil who don't support Russia.

Peace and Love,

Tiny

There is no way around it. Eltsyn's (sic) controlled dissolution of the Soviet Union will not repeat itself. The upcoming catastrophe will be a bloody, bloody mess. The civil war in Yugoslavia will look like a walk in the park compared to this.

I totally understand why Biden and the West are terrified by this prospect, and why they consistently and stubbornly decline Kyiv's request for F16 and more advanced artillery. Not that they aren't trying to help Ukraine -- it's just that they don't want Putin to lose his grip on power no matter what.

Because what can go wrong with 6 K+ nukes during the most horrific civil war in the history of mankind, right?