Thread: Stupid Shit in Kyiv
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04-15-23 23:52 #1911
Posts: 1956"We don't leave our own behind"
Up to 82% of the wounded and sick military defense forces return to duty after treatment. According to the president of the National Academy of Medical Sciences, the mortality rate at the stage of evacuation from the battlefield has decreased to 1. 35%. The new Military Medical Doctrine of Ukraine follows the Israeli practice where all civilian hospitals become military hospitals at the same time.
https://global.espreso.tv/up-to-82-o...s-and-diseases
Severely wounded Russians, on the other hand, are as good as dead. If they can't get back on their own, the help will never come. We-don't-leave-our-own-behind, my ass.
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04-15-23 19:39 #1910
Posts: 516Official narratives run both ways.
Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]
1. Russia currently controls much less territory than they did in the immediate aftermath of their invasion.
2. Russia appears to be having difficulty replacing modern equipment used or destroyed in battle. The evidence for this is their use of refurbished older tank models and the dramatic decrease in their missile usage.
3. Russia currently has the explicit or implicit support, in the material sense, of China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine currently has the explicit or implicit support of the US, most of Europe, and other significant countries like Japan, Australia, Canada, etc.
I could go on, but the above items make my point. Narratives are fueled in many ways (personal likes, dislikes, other emotional considerations, etc.), but actual facts are stubborn things. People who cling to their preferred narrative are often the same ones who believe they can predict outcomes. The stubborn facts, however, have confounded many such pseudo-experts. I fully expect that trend to continue.
P.S. One's past position on COVID, or any other issue, is completely irrelevant to the Ukraine discussion. A classic red herring fallacy, if ever there was one.
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04-15-23 16:27 #1909
Posts: 3230Originally Posted by JohnClayton [View Original Post]
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04-15-23 06:49 #1908
Posts: 746Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
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04-15-23 02:26 #1907
Posts: 516Russia is the dying patient.
Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
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04-15-23 02:21 #1906
Posts: 516You believe, but you don't know.
Originally Posted by DramaFree11 [View Original Post]
As for a Spring counteroffensive, I would argue that launching one is a military, social, and political imperative for Ukraine. Russia doesn't really have any internal or external audiences they need to satisfy. Even if the ultra-nationalists aren't satisfied, there's not much they can do about it.
Ukraine, in stark contrast, has both internal and external audiences who have expectations that need to be managed or met. The Ukrainian people certainly expect their leaders to produce something, or to at least make the effort. They're understanding of the fact that resources are limited, but it's doubtful they'd be understanding of inaction. I have no particular allegiance to Zelensky and, if calls come for him to step down and be replaced by the Defense Minister, Head of the Armed Forces, or someone else, I don't think that would cause insurmountable problems.
On the external front, Europe and the US are less likely to continue robust support if things devolve into a stalemate. Right now it's rasputitsa season, which makes large-scale offensive campaigns impractical. I've seen various estimates that weather and road conditions will be favorable starting around mid-May. Only Ukraine knows their own timetable, but I'd be highly surprised if something significant doesn't happen by June.
Mind you, I'm not predicting how things will turn out on the battlefield. I'm simply noting that the pressure is on Ukraine to take some initiative. Whether it succeeds or not depends on a set of variables about which no reasonable observer or analyst would pretend to have full knowledge.
Those who think they have a crystal ball should at least be honest enough to admit that so many past 'expert predictions' have been way off the mark. Unfortunately, intellectual integrity and humility are in desperately short supply nowadays.
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04-15-23 02:07 #1905
Posts: 1316https://youtu.be/Vc_3I1E3QYE
After 30 years of neglect and abuse of her own body and soul the mortally ill patient is on an operation table.
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04-14-23 23:12 #1904
Posts: 2794Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
You guys are dreaming that there will be a Spring Offensive from Ukraine, they are finished.
I do believe that parts of the reports are true, but this guy was probably set-up by the CIA. Interesting how the media is suddenly talking about corruption in Ukraine government. Something is definitely up. The Ukraine military has done an amazing job and totally over achieved, but they are done, time negotiations, that should have happened, 13 months ago.
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04-14-23 19:36 #1903
Posts: 1956Originally Posted by Locamotive [View Original Post]
Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.
The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.
In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.
Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.
A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".
Which brings me to yet another point: not only Russian trolls are typically dumb, but they're also lazy to the point of disbelief.
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04-14-23 17:31 #1902
Posts: 516Info vs disinfo vs misinfo
Originally Posted by Locamotive [View Original Post]
I've seen various reports and analyses about the situation and none of them have given me any sense that there will be any effect on actual battlefield realities.
Ukraine has whatever resources it has, and Russia has whatever resources they have, and facts on the ground will determine the outcome. I certainly understand that copium is a strong motivation for the pro-Russia crowd to grasp at any straws they can. Whatever the outcome of the intel disclosures (real or planted) I doubt they'll have much, if any, practical impacts. Nice try though!
You know, if it is a psyop, then those who orchestrated it can be encouraged by how quickly and completely you bought into it. And the questions they must be asking themselves in the Kremlin is what's real, what's fake, and does any of it make a damn bit of difference on the battlefield?
P.S. Better double-check your "facts" about the kill ratio. That's already been debunked as having been photoshopped by pro-Russia bloggers. But hey, copium is one hell of a strong drug, right?
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04-14-23 17:05 #1901
Posts: 516The quintessence of copium
Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
Pretty desperate stuff, eh? Imagine how they must feel in the Kremlin! I guess it serves as a distraction from that loud flushing sound.
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04-14-23 16:46 #1900
Posts: 324Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crime
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04-14-23 15:27 #1899
Posts: 161Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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04-14-23 04:08 #1898
Posts: 1316
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04-13-23 21:47 #1897
Posts: 516Hersh is non-credible. So of course he'd be your fave source.
Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
First, his alleged "scoop" about the Nordstream bombing was posted on his personal substack. The fact that he avoided publishing on ANY established site, even those of the pro-Russia persuasion, demonstrates his reluctance (or inability) to share any information about his "source" or any other details that a responsible publisher might want to double-check. Personal substack + anonymous source = zero credibility.
Second, Hersh tries to create pseudo-credibility by leveraging his reputation from past stories he's reported. But that's problematic because plenty of that reporting has been thoroughly debunked.
https://www.vox.com/2015/5/11/858447...sama-bin-laden
Hersh reached the pinnacle of his career during the Vietnam War years. Subsequently he's become a caricature of his former self. It's a bit like a formerly A-List movie star being reduced to a cameo role on Love Boat. Rather a sad spectacle.
But hey, since birds of a (pathetic) feather flock together, it's no surprise he's your go-to guy!