Thread: Stupid Shit in Kyiv
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04-02-23 14:12 #1829
Posts: 323A the fool makes his appearance
Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
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04-02-23 06:44 #1828
Posts: 1947Originally Posted by Chicago85 [View Original Post]
His instinct, which has worked for him in the past, is to escalate at every sight of trouble. He knows the West doesn't have much tolerance for the loss of life. He sees it as a huge weakness. That's what his nuclear blackmail means.
Of course, he's bluffing. But the problem with nuclear rhetoric is even talking about it is dangerous. Things can simply go wrong. Statements misunderstood. There are plenty of nervous people everywhere.
Gerontocrats from Soviet Politburos are probably turning nonstop in their graves.
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04-02-23 04:09 #1827
Posts: 516Agree + three quick additional points
Originally Posted by Chicago85 [View Original Post]
2. If either Trump or DeSantis take office, they'll immediately be confronted with the difference between governing and criticizing the policies of others. Europe is remarkably united in their support of Ukraine. And other nations like Canada, Australia, and Japan are firmly on board. A Republican administration might want to make changes but I doubt they would pull the plug or be willing to piss off so many important allies. They might try to pressure Ukraine to negotiate but Putin's war criminal status and Russia's continued atrocities make that a tough sell. And most of Europe will also take Ukraine's side on that issue.
3. If the US does throttle back on support, it wouldn't surprise me to see other countries throttle up. Poland, for example, has the ability to transfer more equipment if they choose to do so. Most NATO countries have been allowing the US to take the lead. But, if that leadership wanes, I fully expect others to step up. Russian aggression is an existential threat for the Baltics, Nordics, Poland, and others. They will adapt to any changing circumstances because supporting Ukraine is the best way to ensure their own security.
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04-02-23 03:54 #1826
Posts: 1680Lol
Originally Posted by Locamotive [View Original Post]
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04-02-23 02:58 #1825
Posts: 516Reality is more than cherry-picked confirmation bias
Originally Posted by Locamotive [View Original Post]
But facts are stubborn things and they don't give a shit about either side's narrative. Reality is what actually happens on the battlefield, and that reality has not been kind to Russia, which occupies much less territory today than they did one year ago.
Let's take Bakhmut, as just one example. It's been "about to fall" for many months. And, even if it does fall, there are fortifications nearby that Ukraine has been preparing since 2014. And, even if it does fall, what if (as some have reported) it's cost Russia a hugely disproportionate amount of eqp and personnel losses? And, even if it does fall, will the Russians be able to hold it or will it be retaken by Ukraine, as happened with Lysychansk?
So what happens over the next few months? Will it be the case that Russia has shot their offensive wad and will only be able to wage defensive warfare? Will Ukraine be able to mount an effective offensive? I don't have the answers to those questions, and I'm not in the business of making predictions. But any honest observer of the current situation can see that Russia is currently at a near-standstill. And that's true no matter what happens in Bakhmut.
Not only are their ground forces moving at a snail's pace (where they're moving at all) but they no longer seem capable of mounting the kinds of massive missile attacks they did before. In fact, there's not one militarily significant area in which Russia's efforts haven't decreased in tempo and intensity.
And, if Russia is such a giant and powerful country, why can't they replace their lost equipment (tanks, etc.) with equivalent models? Instead, they're refurbishing WW-II era tanks and trying to buy drones and other weapons from countries like Iran.
Oh, and that "giant" country has a GDP less than the state of California. So, while it's massive when it comes to geographic size, it's below average when it comes to economic heft. Meanwhile, all of the US and all of Europe are firm in their support of Ukraine. And, in Asia and the Pacific, both Japan and Australia are supporting Ukraine. Russia was hoping for China's help but, at least so far, that's been more talk than anything else.
So, go right ahead and smoke your crack while patting yourself on the back about the "accuracy" of your crystal ball. I prefer to observe the facts on the ground and let those inform my assessments. And, as I noted above, reality has not been kind to Russia. But go ahead and buy your girl another lumpia. That should make everything better.
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04-02-23 01:57 #1824
Posts: 387Originally Posted by Locamotive [View Original Post]
Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate without any tanks, very few planes, and USA Tech from the early 90's. Once the 150+ promised advanced tanks arrive, a few pilots get trained on F-16's, and the US sends some things from more recent than 30 YEARS AGO! . Stuff will move.
Russia's supposed trump card is their nuclear stockpile. Even if they were to deploy one of those, and it miraculously worked, they'd be 10x worse off and it would lead to the ware being ended by 'the adults in the room.' Putin knows that it would be his downfall as the USA Would respond with overwhelming firepower and likely boots on the ground. Russia would be out of the occupied territories in a week, and should the US want to, we'd be in Red Square within a month. Putin would be overthrown and likely killed.
You can call this hubris, and there is a good dose of that, but more so my position is based upon the absolute shit show of a performance that has been Russia so far.
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04-02-23 01:44 #1823
Posts: 1315April Fool's Day. A professional holiday for the wretched jester and the spare macabre camarilla around the puppet.
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04-01-23 23:24 #1822
Posts: 1680Yep
Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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04-01-23 19:34 #1821
Posts: 516Russian academic speaks the truth. Is there an open window in his future?
"Russia is losing its future. Aleksandr Auzan, dean of Economics at Moscow State University on the loss of human capital in Russia".
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...C-0ZemysYtAAAA
The video clip is 1 min 18 secs in length, and Auzan tries to soften his dire predictions by saying "if" the brain drain doesn't continue in the same way it's been going. Unfortunately for him, and Russia, there's no evidence Putin has any intention of changing course. Which means the brain drain is likely to continue along its death-spiral course, taking with it the hopes of Russia's future (for years, possibly generations) to come.
If you watch the clip it's clearly a warning, albeit cloaked in academic language, about the negative consequences of the current policy path. And it's clearly coming from someone in a position to have in-depth knowledge.
Unfortunately for the professor, pointing out Putin's negatives usually results in negative consequences showing up at your own door. Let's hope he has enough in the way of connections and influence to avoid any untimely accidents.
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04-01-23 14:20 #1820
Posts: 323Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
The new foreign policy doctrine has been well understood as taking it in the ass from China from now onwards.
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04-01-23 06:03 #1819
Posts: 516Did you translate it from the original Mandarin?
Originally Posted by Questner [View Original Post]
If anyone doubts this, just look at reports about Xi's recent Russia visit. The deliverables were decidedly in China's favor while Russia received mostly platitudes.
Putin has become Xi's lapdog, and everyone knows it, even in Russia. Can't wait for Vladivostok to revert to Chinese ownership and control. Won't that be exciting?
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04-01-23 05:52 #1818
Posts: 516Putin is a rabid dog that needs to be put down
Originally Posted by Elvis2008 [View Original Post]
With Putin, the fact that he has nukes makes getting rid of him even more important. That's because his nuclear saber-rattling won't stop with Ukraine. It'll continue with respect to Poland, the Baltics, and whatever else LilliPutin decides he wants.
But let's talk about nukes, shall we? I've seen some interesting articles detailing the kind of meticulous maintenance, and periodic replacement of critical components, needed to keep ICBMs mission-ready. With what we've seen of Russia's military, so far, it's an open question as to how much of Russia's nuclear deterrent is operational.
But let's assume it's good to go. The next question is whether Putin has a,death-wish and, even if he does, whether those around him share that death-wish. Will the soldiers and sailors and airmen blindly follow a launch order? Especially when, according to Russia's own military doctrine, nukes are a last resort to be used only if the homeland is under attack? It's hard to predict how people will react to an order to conmence the apocalypse. Hesitation, refusal, and even revolt are all possibilities.
One other thing to consider is the will of Russia's de facto master, China. Xi isn't as reckless as Putin and China will not want to deal with the fallout (literal and figurative) of Putin's foolishness. I'm guessing Xi has plenty of spies close to the Kremlin who would sound the alarm if rabid-dog Putin started foaming at the mouth too much. If that happened, I'd be surprised if China didn't have contingency plans ready to go. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries have all been cozying up to China. They all have spy networks and contacts in Russia, and none of them has a death-wish. On this particular issue, I would argue that Putin is truly isolated. None of his internal or external allies are willing to die for him. And, if they suspect he's losing his shit, they'll likely move against him.
Oh, and the 'provocation' BS is pure Russian propaganda. Ukraine never posed a threat to Russia. Ukraine simply wants to be left alone. And NATO, a defensive alliance of 30 countries, never posed a threat of offensive action against Russia. Consider that, at least prior to Russia's aggression, several NATO countries were on good terms with Russia and would NEVER have voted in favor of any NATO action against that country. Once again, Russia plays the faux victim as an all too transparent facade to excuse its own aggression.
But that's fine. Because, unlike 2014, Europe and its allies now see Putin for the existential threat he is. It's a damn shame that the dog you love has turned rabid. But that doesn't change the fact that he absolutely needs to be put down.
P.S. One correction to the above: Finland's application to join NATO has received unanimous approval, so NATO will be a 31 nation alliance. And, with that one move, the presence of NATO on Russia's borders has greatly expanded. Putin is truly the best salesman for NATO membership who has ever existed!
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04-01-23 03:21 #1817
Posts: 1315While a new Russian Foreign Policy doctrine has been revealed.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fun...ments/1860586/
A new Chinese symbol depicting a snorting bug in the Kiev's bunker has taken shape:
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03-31-23 22:44 #1816
Posts: 1947When?
Originally Posted by Oiste [View Original Post]
Kay: Did he say anything to you?
Edwards: Yeah, that the world is coming to an end.
Kay: Did he say when?
Per favore compagno, don't leave us hanging.
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03-31-23 22:11 #1815
Posts: 1947Russia is doomed.
Originally Posted by Locamotive [View Original Post]
9 months, 30,000 dead, 15 miles. Any other country, their generals would've been court-marshaled for wasting soldiers lives, but Russians historically don't give a fuck about how much meat they throw into the grinder.
And they never have. Ever.
If Bakhmut falls (which is not at all predetermined), the Russians will be left holding ruins and facing new fortifications and defensive positions in all directions. There are 100's of Bakhmuts in Ukraine, and that's just on the left bank of the Dnepro, and the Ukrainians are willing to kill and die for every one of them.
Russia is doomed.