Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Jmsuttr]

This is actually a clip I meant when I said that Girkin has begun criticizing Putin the way he never did before. And criticizing might even be a wrong word here. Telling Putin to shut up and calling him a "rug" (bad translation BTW, it sounds much worse in Russian, like spineless or gutless) used to be unthinkable. In his earlier clips, Girkin carefully avoided badmouthing Putin, focusing instead on his henchmen, but not anymore. I think after the failures on the battlefield and the latest ICC announcement, FSB has shifted into a higher gear. In other words, I don't see Girkin taking this risk without at least a tacit approval from his superiors, but we'll see.

But that clip still came across (at least to me) as being more pointedly directed at Putin's failed advisers. But there's no question that Girkin uses that device as a thin veil for criticism of Putin himself. And there's also no question that he's changed his focus from the failures of the military leadership to the failures within the Kremlin itself.

In this latest clip he used the ICC arrest warrant as his excuse. It'll be interesting to see what he says in the coming days. If he goes back to bashing generals, that's one possible path. If he continues to focus on Putin, no matter what he uses as a facade, that'll be a significant change, IMO. He has nowhere to go, so his survival depends on how well he's protected and how well he can navigate treacherous waters.

[Xpartan]

Are your Chinese lessons progressing well? One tip from Russian social media is to learn how to bow the proper way, if in doubt bend your back lower so you don't offend your new masters, keep your ass high and forehead low. There are lot's of guides in Russian spreading around, so I'm sure you will be fine if you follow these instructions.

At least, the Vatnik-in-Chief learned the lesson, interacting with Xi the way a vassal is supposed to interact with his feudal lord and protector. It was a lot of fun to watch. But hey, at least he gets to threaten the West with the nukes. Totally worth it, I'm sure.

And yes, Mandarin is a tough language to learn, but they'll manage as long as they start early in life.

The only thing I'm curious about at this point is how long it'll take for China to return to the borders of 1857. I think Vegas should start taking bets on the matter.

https://russiaglobal.omeka.fas.harva.../items/show/23

[VinDici]

Some essential daily listening

Are your Chinese lessons progressing well? One tip from Russian social media is to learn how to bow the proper way, if in doubt bend your back lower so you don't offend your new masters, keep your ass high and forehead low. There are lot's of guides in Russian spreading around, so I'm sure you will be fine if you follow these instructions.

[John Clayton]

Some essential daily listening https://youtu.be/WDoXRbr860U.

Macgregor has gone off the deep end. He is a paid shill for RT. He's a traitorous, russian loving, jew hating, racist, misogynistic kook -- smart, but still a kook.

[Questner]

Some essential daily listening https://youtu.be/WDoXRbr860U.

[Xpartan]

Girkin (AKA Strelkov) is an interesting figure. He certainly is a vocal critic of the way Russia's war is being conducted and led, but, when it comes to personal criticism of Putin, he's usually pretty careful about how close to the line he gets.

In this particular instance, his verbiage is more nuanced than it appears at first glance.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...50468952391681

If you watch the video clip (4 m 26's) you'll notice that the direct criticism is aimed primarily at Putin's speechwriters. So Girkin is saying that, in the wake of the ICC arrest warrant, the speechwriters are failing Putin (and Russia) by not telling him to be quiet. Since I don't speak Russian, I don't know if the phrase used for "shut up" is as harsh and direct as it is in English. Whatever the case, you can see the tightrope walk in action as he frequently uses wording that allows him to maintain the (obvious) fiction that he's only criticizing Kremlin flunkies for their failures. And, while I haven't watched the clip referred to in the first article (cretinism comment), it's my guess Girkin was playing the same transparent game.

Of course it's absolutely true that Putin, if sufficiently displeased, could order Girkin's assassination at a moment's notice. I've seen a couple of theories as to why that hasn't happened. One theory is that Girkin still has enough in the way of FSB connections to offer him protection, as long as he doesn't go too far. The other is that the Kremlin allows him to serve as a mouthpiece for ultranationalists who are dissatisfied with the war effort. I have no idea if either of these are correct, but they're both contingent on a successful negotiation of the tightrope by Girkin. If or when he screws up, we'll know soon enough.

This is actually a clip I meant when I said that Girkin has begun criticizing Putin the way he never did before. And criticizing might even be a wrong word here. Telling Putin to shut up and calling him a "rug" (bad translation BTW, it sounds much worse in Russian, like spineless or gutless) used to be unthinkable. In his earlier clips, Girkin carefully avoided badmouthing Putin, focusing instead on his henchmen, but not anymore. I think after the failures on the battlefield and the latest ICC announcement, FSB has shifted into a higher gear. In other words, I don't see Girkin taking this risk without at least a tacit approval from his superiors, but we'll see.

[Jmsuttr]

By their very nature, any sanctions regime is a dynamic process as the sanctioned nation works to avoid them and the nations enforcing the sanctions work to tighten them. It's certainly possible to find stories on both sides, but here's one that highlights the fact that sometimes a very small sanctioned item can have an outsized effect:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...d-from-storage

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-80-tanks-too/

Both articles focus on the lack of modern optics for use in Russian tanks. No matter how many they produce, repair, or refurbish, that weak link is a major disadvantage for Russian armored forces. At a minimum, it probably undermines the ability for any significant offensive push relying on tanks. That makes it more likely that Russia may need to continue their use of "human wave" tactics for offensive action and may have to settle for trying to defend territory they currently hold.

Just to clarify, this info isn't meant as a general assessment of the effectiveness of sanctions, or lack thereof. It's just a single data point that I found interesting. Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions and we'll probably have to wait until after the war ends before we get a more comprehensive picture.

[Jmsuttr]

Great analysis. Putin used to be just a common thief, common not because he stole little, but because he plundered according to his Big Kahuna status, just the way it's normally done in Russia. But in the last 20 years, he's gotten convinced he was a God or at least Peter the Great reincarnate. That metamorphosis is what's turned a common thief into an uncommon global villain.

That said, the process of "telling him he's wrong" has already started. Lately, he's been wildly and brutally criticized by a convicted war criminal Girkin-Strelkov, the former so-called DNR "Defense Minister. ".

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-pu...-visit-1788758

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rus...s-shut-1789177

As a "retired" FSB colonel, Girkin would never dare tell Putin to shut up if he wasn't sure that FSB would provide impunity. Hence the question: why would FSB allow anyone to badmouth the boss?

Perhaps, Putin's personal doomsday may arrive sooner than we think.

Girkin (AKA Strelkov) is an interesting figure. He certainly is a vocal critic of the way Russia's war is being conducted and led, but, when it comes to personal criticism of Putin, he's usually pretty careful about how close to the line he gets.

In this particular instance, his verbiage is more nuanced than it appears at first glance.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...50468952391681

If you watch the video clip (4 m 26's) you'll notice that the direct criticism is aimed primarily at Putin's speechwriters. So Girkin is saying that, in the wake of the ICC arrest warrant, the speechwriters are failing Putin (and Russia) by not telling him to be quiet. Since I don't speak Russian, I don't know if the phrase used for "shut up" is as harsh and direct as it is in English. Whatever the case, you can see the tightrope walk in action as he frequently uses wording that allows him to maintain the (obvious) fiction that he's only criticizing Kremlin flunkies for their failures. And, while I haven't watched the clip referred to in the first article (cretinism comment), it's my guess Girkin was playing the same transparent game.

Of course it's absolutely true that Putin, if sufficiently displeased, could order Girkin's assassination at a moment's notice. I've seen a couple of theories as to why that hasn't happened. One theory is that Girkin still has enough in the way of FSB connections to offer him protection, as long as he doesn't go too far. The other is that the Kremlin allows him to serve as a mouthpiece for ultranationalists who are dissatisfied with the war effort. I have no idea if either of these are correct, but they're both contingent on a successful negotiation of the tightrope by Girkin. If or when he screws up, we'll know soon enough.

[Xpartan]

No one is going to be bold (or suicidal) enough to tell him he's wrong. And any setback will be blamed on the incompetence or betrayal of subordinates. How and when the "doom deadline" will be reached is hard to say, but Putin is well on his way.

Great analysis. Putin used to be just a common thief, common not because he stole little, but because he plundered according to his Big Kahuna status, just the way it's normally done in Russia. But in the last 20 years, he's gotten convinced he was a God or at least Peter the Great reincarnate. That metamorphosis is what's turned a common thief into an uncommon global villain.

That said, the process of "telling him he's wrong" has already started. Lately, he's been wildly and brutally criticized by a convicted war criminal Girkin-Strelkov, the former so-called DNR "Defense Minister. ".

Prominent military blogger and former Russian commander Igor Girkin has again disparaged Vladimir Putin, saying that the president should "shut up" about aspects of his full-scale invasion.

In a video uploaded to his Telegram social media channel, the former FSB officer, who led Moscow-backed forces in the Donbas region from 2014, said that Putin does not act like he is the president "of a huge country with over 1,000 years of history."

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-pu...-visit-1788758

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rus...s-shut-1789177

As a "retired" FSB colonel, Girkin would never dare tell Putin to shut up if he wasn't sure that FSB would provide impunity. Hence the question: why would FSB allow anyone to badmouth the boss?

Perhaps, Putin's personal doomsday may arrive sooner than we think.

[VinDici]

Vatnik Cope of the Day: 'Once upon a time in the Small Kingdom there lived a depleted uranium ammo shell. And one day he travelled east. And he returned to his homeland enriched. And this is how both the tale and the Small Kingdom ended. '.

Once upon a time, there was pedo with a tiny dick, he invaded Ukraine and stole it's children. The Ukrainians rose up and the world helped them, Muscovites turned for help, but there was none, then one day they invited Winnie the Pooh to their house, they gave him lot's and lots' of honey, but Winnie only gave kind words and felt sorry for the dirty Muscovites, he invited them instead to become the Belarus of Pooh land, and the Muscovites cried and wept, but they accepted, because they had no friends. And this is how the tale of how the Small Kingdom of Muscovy ended. The world lived happily ever after and the Muscovites lived in servitude to Winnie the Pooh for the rest of their sad lives.

[Questner]

The joke of the day: 'Once upon a time in the Small Kingdom there lived a depleted uranium ammo shell. And one day he travelled east. And he returned to his homeland enriched. And this is how both the tale and the Small Kingdom ended. '.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/republ...ia-ukraine-war

[Jmsuttr]

American Conservative as a source = Holocaust denying Pat Buchhanan isolationist inspired Putin deep throatings. No Putin doesn't get to steal Ukraine. The runs on Kyiv and other major cities betray intentions. He wants all, and thought the West would turn away again but we didn't. So it's clear where everything is going, and it won't be good for Putin.

Agree with everything in your post. And, as to your point about Putin betraying his intentions, I think he's gotten to a place where he no longer cares about disguising them. He's thoroughly deluded himself and those delusions will lead him to his doom.

For example, even though the Russian Orthodox Church only espouses Kremlin-approved positions, I think Putin actually believes the delusion that he has a special mission (God-given or otherwise) to reclaim 'historic' Russian lands, like a modern-day Peter the Great, and lead Slavic peoples against the degenerate West. Unfortunately for him, no one outside Russia wants to be under Moscow's authority and post-Soviet countries are adamant they're not going back to those former times.

Another way Putin has deluded himself, IMO, is by buying into the Stalingrad myth. Russians love to reference this battle as evidence they can withstand any hardship and prevail against weaker-willed enemies. There are a LOT of flaws with that view. Here are some that come to mind:

1. Hitler made what many agree was a fatal error when he decided to open a second front in the war. This current war has only one front, and Ukraine has no distractions preventing them from applying all their strength and attention to the goal of repelling Putin's invasion.

2. Stalingrad was a defensive battle for the Soviets, with German forces at a logistical and geographical disadvantage. The current war is exactly the opposite, with Russia being forced to extend and maintain military supply lines deep into occupied territory.

3. It's an essential tenet of the Stalingrad myth that Russians repelled the German army all by themselves, and that their efforts led directly to Hitler's eventual defeat. The reality is that the USSR received enormous amounts of Lend-Lease aid from Allied countries, without which they might not have prevailed or might have paid a much higher price. In this current war, Ukraine is the country receiving the lion's share of military aid. Russia is lucky if they can get a few drones from Iran and some dual-use microchips from China.

https://www.rbth.com/history/335471-...se-helped-ussr

4. Russia is not the USSR. They don't have the USSR's industrial resources or the USSR's demographics and manpower. There are various estimates but some put the number of able-bodied men who've fled the draft at upwards of one million. And that doesn't count the brain-drain of others who have left for a variety of other reasons. Oh, and many of the USSR's "strong-willed" warriors were drawn from the populations of areas that are no longer part of Russia, including Ukraine. While the resolve of some could waver, the resolve of Ukraine (and also Poland, the Baltics, and others) will not be shaken.

As with Hitler, once a dictator's delusional mindset takes hold, it's hard to see what could change it. No one is going to be bold (or suicidal) enough to tell him he's wrong. And any setback will be blamed on the incompetence or betrayal of subordinates. How and when the "doom deadline" will be reached is hard to say, but Putin is well on his way.

[Paulie97]

Why don't you simply link directly to the Kremlin? At least that would be more honest. Sites like Russia Today don't try to mask their content as anything other than the pro-Putin propaganda it is. That's better than sites and opinion writers who claim to be conservative whilst having their lips firmly wrapped around LilliPutin's dick.

American Conservative as a source = Holocaust denying Pat Buchhanan isolationist inspired Putin deep throatings. No Putin doesn't get to steal Ukraine. The runs on Kyiv and other major cities betray intentions. He wants all, and thought the West would turn away again but we didn't. So it's clear where everything is going, and it won't be good for Putin.

[Xpartan]

It seems that the infamous Putin's collaborator, head of the so-called Donetsk People Republic and war criminal to boot, has decided to finally run away from the "Russian World. " Far, far away.

Senor Pushilin who seems to proudly possess a Brazilian passport, purchased a 6,000 sq. Ft. Lot in Jaguaruna in Santa Catarina, to the south of Floripa. Looks quite a nice lot to me right in front of the ocean. Much nicer than a noose awaiting him in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/f_o_r_Ukraine/st...htmode%3Dfalse

[Xpartan]

Life in prison is better than he deserves. Unfortunately I doubt the Hague has kept the death penalty.

Probably his best option is a quick demise at the hands of one of his "trusted" cronies. Et tu, Brute?

Et tu sounds about right. Hard to imagine that his henchmen will allow him to travel to Hague and run his mouth. Too many real skeletons in real closets.

He'll be dealt with quietly. They're not going to sodomize him like Gaddafi or shoot him like Ceausescu. After all, it's almost a family matter. As in Cosa Nostra.

He'll probably succumb to a heart attack. Quiet, realistic, venerable.