Stupid Shit in Kyiv

[Xpartan]

You are correct, but Ukraine's government is not much better. Ukraine is almost as corrupt as Russia, in something probably more corrupt. Sorry, Ukraine government is horrible, maybe they will change, but I have my doubts.

You keep saying how horrible Ukrainian government is. Apparently it isn't as corrupt or as terrible since they've been beating the living shit out of the "second world army" for 7 months. Apparently, if they had been AS corrupt and AS terrible as you claim them to be, they would've just taken the Russian money and handed their country to Putin on a silver platter (as he expected they would). Apparently if Zelensky had been AS corrupt AS you make him to be, he would've cared first and foremost about saving his ass and would've caved in or at least taken the flight to safety when it was offered by the Americans.

That being said, corruption has nothing to do with the negotiation you're demanding. Despite what has been said a thousand times by me and other people, you simply refuse to understand that any negotiation with Putin doesn't make any sense because Putin won't adhere to any agreement or treaty he signs today, in his day of weakness. Why is it so hard for you to understand that Putin has already violated every single agreement he has signed with or in regard to Ukraine to this day?

[Anaximander]

Hi folks,

Heading to Kyiv for business. Anyone know of any freelance secretaries / translators (don't have to be 100% fluent in English)/ general fixers / helpers?

Please post here or DM!

Thanks,

AX.

[WyattEarp]

And the tide has turned against Russia in several significant ways.

Before elaborating on the above, I wanted to thank the senior members who sent me DMs. I initially took a break to help out a family member who was having medical issues. After that resolved I decided to take a long overdue vacation. During that extended break I realized that, while others would doubtlessly get all worked up debating every wave and ripple, I should follow my own advice about only concerning myself with tidal events. Since the end of June, when I last posted, things were mostly at a standstill until the Kharkhiv counteroffensive in September. And even that, as notable as it was (and is) is better described as a byproduct of a tidal force, rather than the force itself. Here's my reasoning:

1. Battlefield tidal forces: Russia, even after retreating from Kyiv, maintained a significant numerical advantage in terms of artillery and the ability to launch massive "fires" at a town or area to push Ukrainian forces back. The Russkies didn't care if they obliterated everything, they'd roll in and take possession of the ruins. Even with advantages in morale and competence, Ukrainian forces were fighting against the tidal force of massed artillery, and similar weapons systems. The fact they (Ukraine) were able to force a de facto stalemate is a huge credit to them.

The tide on the battlefield shifted with the introduction of HIMARS and other precision and long-range Western systems. Ukraine has been able to disrupt Russian logistics by hitting ammo dumps and fuel depots while staying out of range of Russian guns. The fact that Russian logistics are mostly railroad dependent means those weapons and fuel caches aren't that hard to locate. And if Russian forces try to spread them out that makes their logistics chain less efficient, and slower. Since the introduction of HIMARS, the M777, HARMs, etc. , Russia has been on the back foot and unable to mount any significant offensive actions. Ukraine is now on the front foot, as evidenced by both Kherson and Kharkhiv fronts, and Russia is on the defensive. Mobilization is Russia's attempt to turn the tide but, IMO, it's probably too little, and too late, and has negative consequences that affect other (non-battlefield) tidal forces.

2. Economic tidal forces: People can debate the efficacy of sanctions, and they're certainly in a constant state of enforcement vs evasion flux, but I would argue that the only proof that matters is what translates to the battlefield. Between formal (govt imposed) and informal (private company decisions) sanctions, I've seen no evidence of a shift in the prevailing tide, which is against Russia. Any money Putin may have from oil and gas sales does not seem to have translated into material benefits on the battlefield. And the mobilization, as I mentioned in #1 (above) has unintended negative consequences for the economy. By taking hundreds of thousands of working-age men out of the economy, compounded by hundreds of thousands more who have fled to avoid conscription, there will be nasty domino-effect cascades that we haven't yet begun to see. The fact the Russian economy hasn't collapsed is not the real issue. They're resilient and resourceful and I'm sure they'll find a way to muddle through. But the key point is that they haven't been able to stop their deteriorating position on the battlefield. And the pattern of losses is bound to be detrimental to the national morale and psyche.

I'm sure some will rush to point out Putin's weaponization of energy and how Europe will be affected this winter. While I don't have a crystal ball, I'd simply note that Europe has remained remarkably unified while Putin has increasingly made negotiations a non-starter. By continually ramping up the threats and showing no reluctance to shut off oil and gas flows, Russia has shown itself to be an untrustworthy bully. The only point of a negotiation is if there's confidence that agreements would be respected and that the bully wouldn't simply resume aggression in the future. Ukraine certainly has no confidence and, just as importantly, neither do the Baltics, Poland, and other significant countries. So I expect Europe will muddle through their own set of issues this winter. And, while tides can always change, I see no evidence that's happening at this time.

3. Demographic tidal forces: The brain drain that was already happening has been exacerbated by even more Russians fleeing conscription. Unrest and resentment is increasing in regions which are not ethnically Russian, like Dagestan. And millions who were previously able to ignore the "Special Military Operation" are now having to worry about their family members being sent to war. If Russia was being invaded, or if they were winning the war, they could probably be successful in creating a positive feeling in the population. But neither of those conditions holds true, which means that negative sentiment, unrest, and population outflow, are likely to continue. It's also worth noting that Russian state media, and pro-Russian social channels, have turned negative and taken to finger-pointing and blaming various figures (usually military) for failures, which probably has an amplifying effect on any negative sentiment in the population.

4. Geopolitical tidal forces: Russia has continued down the path of national isolation and even supposed "friends," like China and India, are (mildly) supportive in word rather than deed. They see Russia losing and want to maintain enough distance to avoid getting pulled down (or in). The CSTO has crumbled as Azerbaijan vs Armenia and Tajikistan vs Kyrgyzstan conflicts arise without Moscow having the ability to influence matters. Kazakhstan has cozied up to China and has openly defied Putin, refusing to acknowledge the annexation of Ukrainian territories. In fact, IIRC, only North Korea has given such acknowledgement. Even China and India have remained silent, while Turkey has openly condemned it. It's obvious to all who aren't Putin sycophants that Russia has lost influence, respect, and has retained only a fraction of it's former geopolitical position. That's a tidal force that's unlikely to change for years, or decades, if ever.

I'm sure others can add to the list above, or argue the validity of various points, so knock yourselves out. But I wanted to make this post now because it's very possible that Putin, depending on how he chooses to respond to the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge, may turn some (or all) of those tidal forces into raging cascades. Stay tuned!

I can't disagree with much of what you wrote here. I took a break from this thread because there wasn't much new being said. You still have the Russian fanboys still spreading nonsense here.

I think we knew back this summer the Ukrainians with Western weapons could defend themselves. I am somewhat surprised how much success the Ukrainians have had in such a short time. Besides the Western weapons, it seems that Ukraine's Western-influenced military strategy is far superior to Russia's strategic capabilities. Of course whether it be war or business, if you don't have the resources (effective weapons) and effective implementation the strategy is likely moot. That's not to mention underestimating your opponent and having a complete lack of understanding of the battlefield.

As many commentators have noted, we are in a very dangerous stage in the war. Russian defeats triggering Putin to just destroy things in response. The Russian military (as any large military) is very capable at destruction. You mentioned the Kerch Bridge and the likelihood of Putin's "raging cascades". No surprise that is what we got this week.

I'm sure some of you realize we are in a very different asymmetric war. One where both parties are acting with some restraint in their offensive strikes. Now we have the larger party in this war increasingly becoming less restrained. The smaller party can attack, but risks attacking their opponent too deep.

I now don't see an off-ramp for Russia (Putin) through negotiation. That option seems to becoming more and more of an impossibility. Perhaps the only real resolution to the conflict comes from Putin being deposed by the Russians themselves. Clearly, engaging in a war with an autocratic leader who realizes he has nothing to lose puts us in a very dangerous place.

Maybe I'm optimistic, but I long for one of those deals where a peaceful retirement is negotiated with a failing autocrat. Basically, Putin can take some of his loot and run off to some neutral country that would agree to have you. That's not to say some Russian government of the near future doesn't send some agents to perform a Trotsky on him.

[DramaFree11]

It has been demonstrated again and again, that deals agreed with Putin are not honoured. It's not possible to come to a negotiated settlement with someone who will not hold up their side of the agreement. Ukraine will only have peace if they can decisively kick the Russians out, and even then, I expect constant sabotage from the Russians until there is real regime change.

You are correct, but Ukraine's government is not much better. Ukraine is almost as corrupt as Russia, in something probably more corrupt. Sorry, Ukraine government is horrible, maybe they will change, but I have my doubts.

[VinDici]

Putin and Z need to find a solution quick, but until the rest of the world, but pressure on them to find a solution, the crisis will only get worse. Elvis was correct, Biden wants this war and is doing nothing to end it, for whatever reason.

It has been demonstrated again and again, that deals agreed with Putin are not honoured. It's not possible to come to a negotiated settlement with someone who will not hold up their side of the agreement. Ukraine will only have peace if they can decisively kick the Russians out, and even then, I expect constant sabotage from the Russians until there is real regime change.

[Paulie97]

This is from a retired four star US Army general who gives us some ideas of what Putin can expect if he uses a tactical nuke. Rest assured he knows much more about it than anyone in a hooker forum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL90ljiNuSs

Poots is more likely to get put out to pasture (forced retirement) before that happens, among other outcomes. See the video, interview with his former speechwriter on the regular Kyiv thread that I just posted.

[DramaFree11]

I'm always happy to find a common ground with my opponents, but you keep insisting on the impossible (Putin and Zelensky at the same table). This is not going to happen. Not because Pu is a war criminal and mass murderer, but because whatever he signs ain't worth shit. Ukraine knows that their only chance of survival is pressing ahead.

Aha. In the most astonishingly corrupt big country on planet Earth, the arsenal of 6,000 nukes is sacred. No one embezzles. No one steals. No one drinks themselves into oblivion. No one cuts corners. Everything works like a clock. Swiss clock, not Russian. Yeah, sure.

Whatever is the nature of your delusion, the Russian Empire is as good as dead. Too bad she's chosen such a bloody and despicable path to self-destruction. Didn't have to be.

Xman they should have been negotiating from the beginning, you should always negotiate even if you hate your opponent. Nothing bad can come from talking. This war should have never happened and nobody is going to win with the exception of a few politicians and arms dealers. This is worst case scenario minus the nuclear option.

Again you liberals live in a fantasy world, how are you going to enforce war crimes, we are not going into Russia unless he decides to go nuclear and then Russia will be wiped out and this is bad for everyone. I know CNN likes to talk about this garbage, but is impossible to enforce war crimes and I am sure your boy Pres. Z is guilty of many things as well, he is no Choir Boy. Try to live in the really world.

[Xpartan]

Putin and Z need to find a solution quick, but until the rest of the world, but pressure on them to find a solution, the crisis will only get worse. Elvis was correct, Biden wants this war and is doing nothing to end it, for whatever reason.

I'm always happy to find a common ground with my opponents, but you keep insisting on the impossible (Putin and Zelensky at the same table). This is not going to happen. Not because Pu is a war criminal and mass murderer, but because whatever he signs ain't worth shit. Ukraine knows that their only chance of survival is pressing ahead.

Thankfully, the professionals in the US know that 100% work and have the capability to obliterate everything. The screw ups in our military were known for generations, however it doesn't change the ability of the triad. I can attest it.

Aha. In the most astonishingly corrupt big country on planet Earth, the arsenal of 6,000 nukes is sacred. No one embezzles. No one steals. No one drinks themselves into oblivion. No one cuts corners. Everything works like a clock. Swiss clock, not Russian. Yeah, sure.

Whatever is the nature of your delusion, the Russian Empire is as good as dead. Too bad she's chosen such a bloody and despicable path to self-destruction. Didn't have to be.

[Questner]

Wow, Xman we finally agree. I also feel that most of Putin, nukes do not work, but if 10% work, that is enough to escalate this even more. Ukraine's army is definitely winning, so I was wrong, but as I said from the beginning what will this cost the country and the world. Now instead of having one Country screwed up, we are probably going to have 2. Putin is digging a huge grave, that will take years to dig out of, he needs to go. Time will tell.

Hopefully the Ukraine will take this gift and turn their country around and eliminate the corruption. I have my doubts. They owe this to the rest of the world, many are suffering financially from this ridiculous war, that should have never started and there is a lot of blame to go around, including Biden and his allies.

Putin and Z need to find a solution quick, but until the rest of the world, but pressure on them to find a solution, the crisis will only get worse. Elvis was correct, Biden wants this war and is doing nothing to end it, for whatever reason.

Thankfully, the professionals in the US know that 100% work and have the capability to obliterate everything. The screw ups in our military were known for generations, however it doesn't change the ability of the triad. I can attest it.

We are the same country and will remain corrupt. Your country is no less corrupt, just your corruption has its own flavor and rules. Biden has failed on peace effort. He was in a deep conflict of interest on Ukraine for years.

There are many opinions on the conflict, and I find some on The American Conservative and The Federalist make sense.

Going to the origin of the conflict, here is only one of its pages. Download it. Read it. There is nothing ridiculous in it. https://www.conflits-nations.com/le-livre-blanc.

[Jojosun]

https://www.jpost.com/omg/article-719300

: More than 15,000 have confirmed participation in a sex party on a hill if Putin decides to press the red button, with participants even indicating whether they prefer anal or oral sex.

The organizers claim that the event, in which the locals will give up the atomic shelters and bunkers in favor of a sexual celebration, is so popular that "for some reason, all the apartments with a view of the hill have disappeared from real estate sites. ".

[VinDici]

And the tide has turned against Russia in several significant ways.

...

Great summary and analysis, welcome back sir!

*salute.

[Xpartan]

The one that "lacks balls" is you, not NATO. Why not just join up with Kerzhog and Pedro and tell Ukraine to bend over and grab their ankles? Yes we are prepared for a "catastrophic response" if Poots uses tactical nukes, and that's precisely what you are going to see if he takes that step. The odds of that though remain very low. It would involve Russia losing the few major players left that will have anything to do with them. Plus there's no guarantee that the order would get carried out.

Before you say something that dumb, at least read the message all the way through. If you had you would've found this: "That said, we still have to press ahead supporting Ukraine, no matter what. I just hope you're right and Nato is prepared for whatever lies ahead. ".

I have good reasons to doubt Nato's competence. Why the fuck have we not given them F16? Why do we block Poland from sending them old Soviet MiGs? Why not give them long-range ATACMs if not in an attempt to appease Pu? Today Russians hit Ukraine with 100 missiles and at least half came through, yet Ukrainians have been begging for NASAMS for 6 months already (yes they've been promised once again in 2 months -- maybe). Your cavalier desktop warrior attitude is only matched by your vagueness (who do you mean by "major players", when you have no idea whether or not Pu has already removed every "middleman" between him and the nukes). Gee, I really hope WE, as you put it, know a little more than YOU do -- crossing your fingers and praying for the best.

[DramaFree11]

Let's not oversimplify. That "planning for every possible scenario" thingy -- I'm very skeptical. For one thing, I'm not at all convinced NATO will act quickly and decisively if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Even if they suddenly decide they've got balls, there will be quite a few logistical challenges.

1. Russia's fleets aren't important to their war efforts, but Russia has 60+ submarines that won't be easy to locate and take out quickly. I believe half of them are nuclear-powered.

2. Russia's occupying forces are stationed in populated areas. How are we going to take them out without destroying the cities and killing the locals?

3. Nato's direct involvement will make the war even more unpredictable than it is now. You just don't know what can finally push that maniac to push that button.

4. Don't kid yourself expecting ALL Russian strategic nukes to misfire. They have 6,000. Even if 10% reach their destinations that's game over for most of the world.

That said, we still have to press ahead supporting Ukraine, no matter what. I just hope you're right and Nato is prepared for whatever lies ahead.

Wow, Xman we finally agree. I also feel that most of Putin, nukes do not work, but if 10% work, that is enough to escalate this even more. Ukraine's army is definitely winning, so I was wrong, but as I said from the beginning what will this cost the country and the world. Now instead of having one Country screwed up, we are probably going to have 2. Putin is digging a huge grave, that will take years to dig out of, he needs to go. Time will tell.

Hopefully the Ukraine will take this gift and turn their country around and eliminate the corruption. I have my doubts. They owe this to the rest of the world, many are suffering financially from this ridiculous war, that should have never started and there is a lot of blame to go around, including Biden and his allies.

Putin and Z need to find a solution quick, but until the rest of the world, but pressure on them to find a solution, the crisis will only get worse. Elvis was correct, Biden wants this war and is doing nothing to end it, for whatever reason.

[Jmsuttr]

And the tide has turned against Russia in several significant ways.

Before elaborating on the above, I wanted to thank the senior members who sent me DMs. I initially took a break to help out a family member who was having medical issues. After that resolved I decided to take a long overdue vacation. During that extended break I realized that, while others would doubtlessly get all worked up debating every wave and ripple, I should follow my own advice about only concerning myself with tidal events. Since the end of June, when I last posted, things were mostly at a standstill until the Kharkhiv counteroffensive in September. And even that, as notable as it was (and is) is better described as a byproduct of a tidal force, rather than the force itself. Here's my reasoning:

1. Battlefield tidal forces: Russia, even after retreating from Kyiv, maintained a significant numerical advantage in terms of artillery and the ability to launch massive "fires" at a town or area to push Ukrainian forces back. The Russkies didn't care if they obliterated everything, they'd roll in and take possession of the ruins. Even with advantages in morale and competence, Ukrainian forces were fighting against the tidal force of massed artillery, and similar weapons systems. The fact they (Ukraine) were able to force a de facto stalemate is a huge credit to them.

The tide on the battlefield shifted with the introduction of HIMARS and other precision and long-range Western systems. Ukraine has been able to disrupt Russian logistics by hitting ammo dumps and fuel depots while staying out of range of Russian guns. The fact that Russian logistics are mostly railroad dependent means those weapons and fuel caches aren't that hard to locate. And if Russian forces try to spread them out that makes their logistics chain less efficient, and slower. Since the introduction of HIMARS, the M777, HARMs, etc. , Russia has been on the back foot and unable to mount any significant offensive actions. Ukraine is now on the front foot, as evidenced by both Kherson and Kharkhiv fronts, and Russia is on the defensive. Mobilization is Russia's attempt to turn the tide but, IMO, it's probably too little, and too late, and has negative consequences that affect other (non-battlefield) tidal forces.

2. Economic tidal forces: People can debate the efficacy of sanctions, and they're certainly in a constant state of enforcement vs evasion flux, but I would argue that the only proof that matters is what translates to the battlefield. Between formal (govt imposed) and informal (private company decisions) sanctions, I've seen no evidence of a shift in the prevailing tide, which is against Russia. Any money Putin may have from oil and gas sales does not seem to have translated into material benefits on the battlefield. And the mobilization, as I mentioned in #1 (above) has unintended negative consequences for the economy. By taking hundreds of thousands of working-age men out of the economy, compounded by hundreds of thousands more who have fled to avoid conscription, there will be nasty domino-effect cascades that we haven't yet begun to see. The fact the Russian economy hasn't collapsed is not the real issue. They're resilient and resourceful and I'm sure they'll find a way to muddle through. But the key point is that they haven't been able to stop their deteriorating position on the battlefield. And the pattern of losses is bound to be detrimental to the national morale and psyche.

I'm sure some will rush to point out Putin's weaponization of energy and how Europe will be affected this winter. While I don't have a crystal ball, I'd simply note that Europe has remained remarkably unified while Putin has increasingly made negotiations a non-starter. By continually ramping up the threats and showing no reluctance to shut off oil and gas flows, Russia has shown itself to be an untrustworthy bully. The only point of a negotiation is if there's confidence that agreements would be respected and that the bully wouldn't simply resume aggression in the future. Ukraine certainly has no confidence and, just as importantly, neither do the Baltics, Poland, and other significant countries. So I expect Europe will muddle through their own set of issues this winter. And, while tides can always change, I see no evidence that's happening at this time.

3. Demographic tidal forces: The brain drain that was already happening has been exacerbated by even more Russians fleeing conscription. Unrest and resentment is increasing in regions which are not ethnically Russian, like Dagestan. And millions who were previously able to ignore the "Special Military Operation" are now having to worry about their family members being sent to war. If Russia was being invaded, or if they were winning the war, they could probably be successful in creating a positive feeling in the population. But neither of those conditions holds true, which means that negative sentiment, unrest, and population outflow, are likely to continue. It's also worth noting that Russian state media, and pro-Russian social channels, have turned negative and taken to finger-pointing and blaming various figures (usually military) for failures, which probably has an amplifying effect on any negative sentiment in the population.

4. Geopolitical tidal forces: Russia has continued down the path of national isolation and even supposed "friends," like China and India, are (mildly) supportive in word rather than deed. They see Russia losing and want to maintain enough distance to avoid getting pulled down (or in). The CSTO has crumbled as Azerbaijan vs Armenia and Tajikistan vs Kyrgyzstan conflicts arise without Moscow having the ability to influence matters. Kazakhstan has cozied up to China and has openly defied Putin, refusing to acknowledge the annexation of Ukrainian territories. In fact, IIRC, only North Korea has given such acknowledgement. Even China and India have remained silent, while Turkey has openly condemned it. It's obvious to all who aren't Putin sycophants that Russia has lost influence, respect, and has retained only a fraction of it's former geopolitical position. That's a tidal force that's unlikely to change for years, or decades, if ever.

I'm sure others can add to the list above, or argue the validity of various points, so knock yourselves out. But I wanted to make this post now because it's very possible that Putin, depending on how he chooses to respond to the attack on the Kerch Strait bridge, may turn some (or all) of those tidal forces into raging cascades. Stay tuned!

[Paulie97]

Let's not oversimplify. That "planning for every possible scenario" thingy -- I'm very skeptical. For one thing, I'm not at all convinced NATO will act quickly and decisively if Putin drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine. Even if they suddenly decide they've got balls, there will be quite a few logistical challenges.

1. Russia's fleets aren't important to their war efforts, but Russia has 60+ submarines that won't be easy to locate and take out quickly. I believe half of them are nuclear-powered.

2. Russia's occupying forces are stationed in populated areas. How are we going to take them out without destroying the cities and killing the locals?

3. Nato's direct involvement will make the war even more unpredictable than it is now. You just don't know what can finally push that maniac to push that button.

4. Don't kid yourself expecting ALL Russian strategic nukes to misfire. They have 6,000. Even if 10% reach their destinations that's game over for most of the world.

That said, we still have to press ahead supporting Ukraine, no matter what. I just hope you're right and Nato is prepared for whatever lies ahead.

The one that "lacks balls" is you, not NATO. Why not just join up with Kerzhog and Pedro and tell Ukraine to bend over and grab their ankles? Yes we are prepared for a "catastrophic response" if Poots uses tactical nukes, and that's precisely what you are going to see if he takes that step. The odds of that though remain very low. It would involve Russia losing the few major players left that will have anything to do with them. Plus there's no guarantee that the order would get carried out.