Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

[Ty Down]

Consular Affairs' Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Brownlee warns Americans overseas should act now to get out of harm's way.

https://twitter.com/StateDept/status...59230939910146

My bullshit meter is going off the scale now. Is he saying all international travel will be suspended indefinitely? There's something much bigger coming down the pike besides this bullshit virus, that's my 2 pesos.

[JjBee62]

Someone in the past called it "the fog of war". Who knows whether numbers are high or low or forecasts especially are high or low. For any country. All we can do is wish for the best. And do what we can do. That is not spread it and try not to catch it.

That's an apt description. You don't rush into battle assuming your enemy is weak and easily defeated. You err on the side of caution.

Everyone remember Three Mile Island? I had to sit through a detailed "lessons learned" training on the partial meltdown. They had a reasonably minor situation, but nobody trusted the numbers (the readings from their instruments). They couldn't be right, it didn't make sense. If they had believed the numbers, the problem wouldn't have even made the news. Instead, they did the opposite of what the readings indicated they should do. The readings got worse, and still they believed the problem was with the numbers. This continued until a minor problem became the #1 news topic in the world. Finally at that point someone asked "what if the numbers are right?" Five minutes later, the readings started returning to normal. By then it was too late. There had been a partial meltdown and radioactive release.

[Surfer500]

Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.

If this is true, shaking hands (bareback) I'm assuming with infected patients, than he deserves what he got as cynical as that may sound. However I do hope he survives, at least for his young pregnant wife. Unbelievable what he did bare-backing (handshake) a COVID-19 patient if true.

[ChuchoLoco]

Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.

If that's the case, then he should be in the psyche unit next.

[Zeos1]

Exactly my point. Inaccurate numbers are worthless. And can be misleading. Point well taken on the number of tests. Most states are reporting new cases, which seems like a fair metric. But as you rightly point out, suspected cases which do not have very serious symptoms are not always tested. But, for some reason (obviously financial,) some people, particularly the media and political figures are promoting this as Armageddon. They claim to know that certain locales will peak in August. Yet, those same models missed their projections in NY by 500%! Worse, I now see some municipalities reporting assumed cases. You would think that might be some calculation on those with symptoms but are not tested? But no, it's an assumption that for every positive test, there are 9 asymptomatic carriers out there that haven't been tested. Even the disclaimers are comical. They state this is just to inform the public of how widespread this might be.

I'm not discounting the real danger, the real contagious nature and the lethality of this disease. But my patience with the outright hysteria painted by some (and it is occurring in liberal and conservative quarters) is just about gone.

Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.

Someone in the past called it "the fog of war". Who knows whether numbers are high or low or forecasts especially are high or low. For any country. All we can do is wish for the best. And do what we can do. That is not spread it and try not to catch it.

[Dcrist0527]

The absolute number of tests in US is high. But unfortunately these numbers are a bit misleading. It does not represent people tested. Because many people require 3 tests (1 to confirm it, 2 to provide all clear when it is over). Healthcare workers, etc. Also on a per capita basis US is in the middle of the pack worldwide. The other thing. Same as here in Canada. They are not testing people with symptoms that don't need medical care. They are told to go home and self isolate (by law). So who knows if increased testing is overestimating the growth in numbers of cases (as some are claiming), or if less testing is actually being done relative to the cases.

Also a disturbing thing on numbers of deaths. New York is not counting people who die outside the hospital who were not confirmed cases. The numbers of those is estimated in the low hundreds per day. Anyway. Hopefully the curve is really flattening. We all really need that.

Exactly my point. Inaccurate numbers are worthless. And can be misleading. Point well taken on the number of tests. Most states are reporting new cases, which seems like a fair metric. But as you rightly point out, suspected cases which do not have very serious symptoms are not always tested. But, for some reason (obviously financial,) some people, particularly the media and political figures are promoting this as Armageddon. They claim to know that certain locales will peak in August. Yet, those same models missed their projections in NY by 500%! Worse, I now see some municipalities reporting assumed cases. You would think that might be some calculation on those with symptoms but are not tested? But no, it's an assumption that for every positive test, there are 9 asymptomatic carriers out there that haven't been tested. Even the disclaimers are comical. They state this is just to inform the public of how widespread this might be.

I'm not discounting the real danger, the real contagious nature and the lethality of this disease. But my patience with the outright hysteria painted by some (and it is occurring in liberal and conservative quarters) is just about gone.

Don't even get me started on hydroxychloroquine. CNN told me today that "doctors are hoarding these drugs". Generally, pharmacies dispense the drugs, no? I know that seems like a bit of semantics. But it is just another example of the media playing on the public's emotions at a time of crisis.

[JjBee62]

Seems serious. If he can get it, anyone can. Not sure if he had lots of contact with the job but in any event, nobody is safe.

Just days before he tested positive he was bragging about shaking hands with patients who had COVID-19. I'm afraid Boris isn't the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree.

[Elvis 2008]

Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.

Zeos, if you look at numbers as in total numbers and expected deaths coming up, things look badly I agree. Two of my Facebook friends have been hit now which sucks. They are both around Chicago.

From a new cases POV though, things are looking up. We have below 30,000 cases the last two days in the USA In the world, we hopefully have peaked at 100,000 new cases in a day. Last two days have been at 70,000+.

Then in Colombia, the worst day was March 31 with 159 cases. The last two days there have been only 70+ cases.

Hopefully, fingers crossed, the new cases continues to decline. Sadly, the number of deaths in the next 2 weeks will probably be the most yet.

[ChuchoLoco]

The Prime Minister of the UK is in the ICU. They keep saying its just a precaution but it looks like things took a turn for the worst.

He's only 55 years old. Not exactly geriatric.

Seems serious. If he can get it, anyone can. Not sure if he had lots of contact with the job but in any event, nobody is safe.

[YippieKayay]

The Prime Minister of the UK is in the ICU. They keep saying its just a precaution but it looks like things took a turn for the worst.

He's only 55 years old. Not exactly geriatric.

[Dcrist0527]

I think there is good evidence that maintaining distance and not touching shit without a thorough washing afterwards does stop transmission. Other than that, not much. So to that extent we have some control. But other than that all we have is the numbers. As fudged and incomplete as they are. There are many undiagnosed cases out there. Hence "community transmission". So any "distancing" we do now we still have to remember that it was what was going on 2 to 3 weeks ago, as well as what is happening now, that is making the numbers happen.

The numbers are certainly showing differences from country to country. But a lot of those differences are timing. It got really rolling at different times in different places. Basically when you had it get into the "community transmission" phase.

Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.

Great post. I agree entirely. Distancing makes sense. That's common sense. But unless we are willing to shutter everything for 2-3 weeks, and sanitize everything on the face of the planet, simultaneously, eliminating this virus is a pipe dream.

Your point about numbers is spot on. They are flawed. And I'm just frustrated by how they are misinterpreted. People rely on the mortality rate, while not even thinking how testing affects that rate. So many are freaking out about the number of cases in the US. Well, that's inevitable because the number of tests in the US is so much higher. I say this about everyone, not just on this board: the doom and gloom crowd will find numbers that seem to support their story. And more importantly, it doesn't help the general public's understanding of facts.

[Zeos1]

Phenomenal post. No offense, but for those of you claiming to fully understand what works, what prevention steps work, etc. You are only fooling yourself. Ask yourself. How could we possibly know when the peak will occur? How could you possibly attribute Italy's 2- day old improvement to quarantining? They've been locked down for weeks. I firmly believe we humans fool ourselves into believing some of this stuff to feel in control. Don't believe that? Look back at the last 3 months and appreciate how our understanding of this virus has changed.

I think there is good evidence that maintaining distance and not touching shit without a thorough washing afterwards does stop transmission. Other than that, not much. So to that extent we have some control. But other than that all we have is the numbers. As fudged and incomplete as they are. There are many undiagnosed cases out there. Hence "community transmission". So any "distancing" we do now we still have to remember that it was what was going on 2 to 3 weeks ago, as well as what is happening now, that is making the numbers happen.

The numbers are certainly showing differences from country to country. But a lot of those differences are timing. It got really rolling at different times in different places. Basically when you had it get into the "community transmission" phase.

Using just the numbers, and the rates of increase or decrease, paints a pretty bad picture. Especially in the US at the moment.

[Dcrist0527]

Because an investor I know when numbers are bullshit and when they are real. That was my first and most painful part of investing. Numbers do not lie, but people lie about numbers. I saw China lied about their numbers based on patterns, so the best data we have is flawed. I have read death rates from 0. 8 to 8%, and it varies tremendously on testing. In fact, when you look at country data, death rate percentage is all over the place. Hell, what constitutes a positive test is under debate.

With TB, there may be 9000 new cases of TB in the USA, but there are 13 million latent cases. That means TB is in their body, and if their immune system is in any way deficient, the TB can flare and be deadly.

You want to make estimates based on data, have at it but do not tell me what is established because nothing is. Maybe you noticed that a day or two after I said that new cases has peaked, a lot of the media and experts were saying the same thing about Italy, Washington, and California. And now the CIA says the data out of China is bullshit.

One effective treatment, and I do not mean a 100% effective, and the death numbers go way down. Any projection is based upon doctors not getting any better treating this disease, and I do not buy that. People who use Malthusian models NEVER count on human ingenuity, and that is why they almost always fail..

Phenomenal post. No offense, but for those of you claiming to fully understand what works, what prevention steps work, etc. You are only fooling yourself. Ask yourself. How could we possibly know when the peak will occur? How could you possibly attribute Italy's 2- day old improvement to quarantining? They've been locked down for weeks. I firmly believe we humans fool ourselves into believing some of this stuff to feel in control. Don't believe that? Look back at the last 3 months and appreciate how our understanding of this virus has changed.

[Elvis 2008]

Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.

An immunity certificate? So I should expose myself and risk it. Hell, may be worth it. "Cough in my face Grandma! I got to get to Colombia!

I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.

I agree with you on it not being so bad. The numbers and curves appear to soon show a dramatic lowering of active cases in the coming weeks. It isn't how many cases the USA Had that matters but how many active cases when we get ready to travel.

There is also the notion that the USA Has 6 X or so the amount of people but 200 X the number of cases right? Eh, I am not so sure. One of my chicas told me that a clinic had a whole slew of people who tested + for Covid 19 in a Medellin, but they were not put on the government list.

Also, Colombia has a larger population than Peru, Chile, Ecuador, and Panama, but it has fewer cases. That supports the idea that they are fudging the numbers, so the whole idea the USA Has way more cases percentage wise than Colombia probably is true, but I am not sure that it is as big as it is made out to be.

To me, the simplest thing is to just check a temperature. Yes, I know there is a time frame the virus is contagious but asymptomatic, but it is not like there are not cases in Colombia already.

I think this thing burns itself out. The whole notion being put out there is that there is no immunity to this virus which is bullshit. There is no specific immunity which is kind of like saying that you have sharp shooters specific for the virus. The body has all other kinds of weapons in place to kill the virus. The idea that if the virus gets hold and you have no immunity and you get an infection is just bunk. It is a war, and wars can be won without sharp shooters.

On the other hand, it might be that the virus triggers an overactive immune response that is in fact what is deadly. Apparently, when you have the cryogenic strom mediated by Il-6 mostly, you can see someone go down in hours right before your eyes. When the war is being fought in the body, it is possible that friendly fire is what does many if not most people in.

[Surfer500]

Germany has been talking about an immunity certificate. Maybe we can all get one and go to FKK.

I think the situation is not as bad as you think in the future. There are tests coming out that can provide result quickly. If they are reliable, maybe the tourist can get one upon entry or before boarding and have the tourist pay the cost of the test.

Interesting, and I hope your right. Perhaps six months from now when the worst is over in the USA (hopefully) someone who wanted to fly internationally would arrive at as an example say LAX, and go to a dedicated off-site remote parking lot, get tested, and if cleared be taken to the International Terminal. As far as an immunity certificate, if supposedly people who have caught the disease and have taken an anti-body test might be able to get certified that way, but I don't know if there are different types of the virus, and how long the immunity lasts. However, testing before boarding the plane makes sense, but perhaps were missing something, like a person could be infected but not show up positive for a few days. I'm sure other board members could shed some light on this.

This all sounds like something out of a science fiction novel, now besides having to go thru security at the airports, we most probably will have to go thru medical testing to board an International flight.