Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

[Zeos1]

Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.

Don't know what the heck you're thinking about or reading. But, unfortunately, there is a lot that is known about this virus. And the fact that we have no natural immunity by way of antibodies. Only the other defenses we all have. Getting an active case depends on being exposed to it, may depend to some extent on how much of the virus we were exposed to, and how our body handles it.

In any case we do know lots about how it spreads. And we know from following chains of infection (in some countries or areas they still know the source of every infection) what it takes to spread it. And, when you get people infected with it out interacting with other people it spreads. If they stay apart, and don't spread it through contaminating surfaces it does not spread. At least so little chance that it doesn't matter.

And doing those things works. There are countries and areas where it is not being spread at all, and new cases are all travelers coming in from other places.

[Dcrist0527]

I do not know what you read or where you live but I watch the New York City local news every day lately and the morgues in NYC are over capacity and mass graves are being dug on Hart Island in NYC. And you still want to say that this was not more deadly than the flu? Do you watch the news? Italy was putting people on ice rinks when they ran out of room at their morgues and you say it is no more deadly than the common flu?? You live in a bubble of information that you must be cultivating all on your own. Seasonal flu kills 1/10th of 1 percent of the people who contract it. It does not overflow the morgues. Right now the mortality rate in the state of New York is over 4% which means that even if actually people how have the disease is 400 times the reported number than this is still killing people at rate 10 times more than seasonal flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Social distancing is the only thing slowing this thing down period. No One has immunity to this. No one. There is some mystery why some younger and otherwise healthy people are dying from it but.

Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing..

Mojo,

I respect you a lot. And if you're in NYC, I feel for you. Ground zero. But the mortality rate is just not accurate. Yes, numbers are thrown out there. And simply, that is the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases. Why is that an invalid measurement? We have, by conservative estimates, 15-25% of the population that have this virus. There are number in Chicago from antibody testing that shows it might be as high as 50%. The point about mortality rate: we are vastly understating the number of people that have it. So why is the flu so low? We test everyone. Flu tests are a common practice. We are far more aware about who has the flu. Everyone that wants a test is tested. Now, we have people that have Covid that are not even given a test. It's just an invalid comparison.

That said, it doesn't make the human element of this story any better. You hear about people texting their goodbyes because they can't see family members. It's awful. But that doesn't make bad math any more valid.

[Dcrist0527]

So a couple of things. The NYC ventilator shortage was pure political bullshit: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/loo...19-models-were#comment_stream.

COVID-19 cases have no objective, defined cause of death, and this doctor was saying that the CDC was pumping up the numbers on it: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whi...-19-death-toll.

Then the other thing that is important is how the sensitivity of the covid testing is: https://www.livescience.com/covid19-...negatives.html.

When it comes to the data, you can throw all the models in the trash. We do not know the number of people who really died of the virus, and the percentage of people who have the virus who died, and even how many people really have or have had coronavirus. The numbers whatever you want it to be.

If there is an optimistic thing, it is the poor sensitivity of the test. What this tells me is the virus was waaay more contagious than anyone thought it was but it was also not that deadly..

Elvis, this is an impressive post. I am not in any way in the medical field. But I have spent a lot of my time recently reading about the virus. My background is loosely in data analytics. Personally, I have strong feelings that nearly all of the numbers, models and estimates are truly worthless. Worse, the numbers are being intentionally skewed to inflate fear. The media is probably an unknowing participant. But the CDC, WHO, and state DHS teams should know better. And I think back now months ago to what Fauci said. It may have been his most true statement and clearly foreshadowing. Paraphrasing: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing. ' It is like your local weatherman who interrupts TV programming for 2 hours about a single cell storm. They will milk their 15 minutes for all its worth. Don't get me wrong, they have a place and do play a critical role. But they run the risk of losing credibility when overreacting, or worse yet, skewing the numbers to promote their "fix."

I too was shocked when I read how the death numbers are being abused. Take a look at the number of heart attacks that aren't occurring all of a sudden. Posthumously, they are found to test positive. Yet, they were symptom free. No one knows when they had the virus. And there is nothing to prove the heart attack was caused by Covid. But there is Dr Birx, admitting that those are counted as Covid deaths.

I don't think this was all a hoax. But clearly, there has been a driving force to promote this virus as armageddon. Why? I don't know and that is what scares me.

[JjBee62]

Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.

My guess is your guess is wrong.

We now have a control group regarding the spread of the disease: The USS Theodore Roosevelt.

It represents an enclosed environment and the entire crew has been tested. Of the 4800,448 have tested positive. Another 800 are waiting on test results.

If, as you stated, the disease is much more communicable than the flu, which affects around 17% of the population each year, there should be 2,000 or more positive results.

In other news, it turns out China isn't the only country whose numbers can't be trusted. Yesterday I found out the nursing home I earlier mentioned, has 11 more positive cases. Yet, those cases aren't included in the county, state or national stats. The death on Tuesday also hasn't been added to the tally. That's at least 12 uncounted cases in a town of 1,400.

Then today I saw this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...t-isn-n1181026

So our death tally is off by over 20%. Our confirmed cases tally is also well short of what's reported.

Which begs the question, are the numbers really dropping? Have we reached that plateau? Or are the numbers being manipulated?

[Mojo Bandit]

. In all honesty, it probably was just much, much more contagious and not that more deadly than the seasonal flu.

I think we see travel resume in late May, early June now.

I do not know what you read or where you live but I watch the New York City local news every day lately and the morgues in NYC are over capacity and mass graves are being dug on Hart Island in NYC. And you still want to say that this was not more deadly than the flu? Do you watch the news? Italy was putting people on ice rinks when they ran out of room at their morgues and you say it is no more deadly than the common flu?? You live in a bubble of information that you must be cultivating all on your own. Seasonal flu kills 1/10th of 1 percent of the people who contract it. It does not overflow the morgues. Right now the mortality rate in the state of New York is over 4% which means that even if actually people how have the disease is 400 times the reported number than this is still killing people at rate 10 times more than seasonal flu.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Social distancing is the only thing slowing this thing down period. No One has immunity to this. No one. There is some mystery why some younger and otherwise healthy people are dying from it but.

Common sense on why NYC got hit hard. Besides it being a place that has thousands of arriving people every day. It is a city that is the opposite of social distancing. When I fly into NYC (imagine I have the virus as I make my trip) I pick flight going in to either Newark in Jersey or JFK. Why because I hate surface transportation in NYC where the traffic sucks, So I get in a air train with about 10 other people (touching contaminating handles and poles the whole time) to take to the train station where we then get on various trains (myself and all the people I spread it to on the airtrain) into a commuter train car holding 20 or so people who will be breathing the same recycled air as us (in each train car that all ten of us got on) then us and all the people we contaminate along the way as commuter train makes its way to Penn Station and people at get off and people get on at the stops along the way. Then I and the up to as many 200 people who have been contaminated by now (10 on air train) x (20 in each of their train cars) and then we all go get on various subway cars that are packed with like 30 to fifty people. Who may then be going to catch a connecting subway or a bus to get the final destination. As we empty out of the subway other come in and tough all the handles that we did etc etc. Even walking down seventh, fifth or sixth avenue you are going to be standing in a crowd of 30 people waiting for a walk sign.

[Elvis 2008]

I firmly believe, in February, when nearly everyone seemed to be downplaying the risk, if the US had aggressively worked to limit the spread, one person would still be alive today. We'll never know who may have survived, we'll only know who didn't.

Well, I guess we will find out, but my guess, and it is just a guess, is that the spread of the virus has a hell of a lot more to do with the nature of the immune system and the nature of the virus than anything the "experts" told us to do.

[Elvis 2008]

All I can say is I hope your optimism is warranted.

So a couple of things. The NYC ventilator shortage was pure political bullshit: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/loo...19-models-were#comment_stream.

COVID-19 cases have no objective, defined cause of death, and this doctor was saying that the CDC was pumping up the numbers on it: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/whi...-19-death-toll.

Then the other thing that is important is how the sensitivity of the covid testing is: https://www.livescience.com/covid19-...negatives.html.

When it comes to the data, you can throw all the models in the trash. We do not know the number of people who really died of the virus, and the percentage of people who have the virus who died, and even how many people really have or have had coronavirus. The numbers whatever you want it to be.

If there is an optimistic thing, it is the poor sensitivity of the test. What this tells me is the virus was waaay more contagious than anyone thought it was but it was also not that deadly.

Anyway, my guess now is that the reason we are seeing the plateau and then the decline has more to do with human immunity than social distancing, but it is just a guess. The immune system is way more complicated than just if you have antibodies to Covid.

I think we do see things get back to normal in late May as economics overtakes the fear of the virus. In all honesty, it probably was just much, much more contagious and not that more deadly than the seasonal flu.

I think we see travel resume in late May, early June now.

[JjBee62]

Now you have Fauci under the 80,000 flu deaths in 2017.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ions-could-die

And in the article is all the good social distancing did. Sigh.

Well, yesterday, NYC Mayor de Blasio said that, after a few days of near capacity numbers, hospitalizations have dropped by such a steep degree that the city believes it has enough ventilators on hand, and won't need any more.

Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US might soon see cases reach the back-side of the curve as the "turnaround and that curve not only flatten, but are coming down. ".

So much for those "established numbers" you were talking about..

All I can say is I hope your optimism is warranted.

I attended a funeral yesterday. By "attended a funeral" I mean I commented on the picture of the casket taken just before it was lowered in the grave. There were no mourners, although the deceased lived a long life and had, not only a large family, but a huge circle of friends. There will maybe be a wake in July. Until then we're all limited to sharing stories, about an incredible life, on Facebook.

The deceased had been living in a nursing home. While many nursing homes and assisted living facilities have been hard hit, this one should have been low risk. It's in a small town, in a sparsely populated area, and most of the population considers a 50 mile trip world travel. Yet, the virus made its way there.

To the best of my knowledge, no other residents have been tested. None of the other area nursing homes have been tested either. My guess is that in 4-6 weeks there will be a lot of vacancies. Maybe not.

Another core person in my life is currently in NYC, helping out as an RN. Fortunately, she's not in the high risk group.

I firmly believe, in February, when nearly everyone seemed to be downplaying the risk, if the US had aggressively worked to limit the spread, one person would still be alive today. We'll never know who may have survived, we'll only know who didn't.

[Ty Down]

War is a strong word. The Pompeo aide who elaborated on the second announcement of the humanitarian flights that are being referred to as charters here on ISG emphasized Latin America as a region Americans should evacuate. I believe that was a reference to the Trump administration's earlier announcements about Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela, and US military movements in the region.

Good point. This has been on the chalk boards for awhile, and now it's going live. There is a US Navy Task Force in the Caribbean Sea, and also another US Navy Task Force in the Pacific. Looks like Central America is locked down. Maduro is going down. What do you make of it?


EDIT; apologies for the poor image quality, caught it on the run.

[Mojo Bandit]

Thread: Cartagena Reports.

Yesterday 19:06#9664.

LoveItHere69 LoveItHere69 is offline.

Senior Member.

Posts: 60.

New. Flights to USA.

Location: Bogot, Cali, Cartagena, Medellin.

Event: Humanitarian Flights to Fort Lauderdale on April 15 and 16 - Operated by Spirit Airlines.

The USA Embassy is pleased announce that Spirit Airlines will operate three humanitarian flights. Two flights will depart April 15, one from El Dorado International Airport (BOG) in Bogot and a second flight from Rafael andez International Airport (CTG) in Cartagena. A third flight will depart April 16 from Alfonso Bonilla Aragand International Airport (CLO) in Cali, and then board additional passengers in Jos Mara crdova International Airport (MDE) in Medellin. All three flights will arrive at Fort Lauderdale. Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

These flights have been made available to allow USA Citizens and Legal Permanent Residents to return to the United States. Please contact Spirit Airlines directly for seat availability, reservations, and pricing information.

These flights can only be booked online.

If you are interested in returning to the United States, please take advantage of these flights. The USA Government cannot guarantee the ability to arrange flights indefinitely. USA Citizens should return immediately to the United States, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.

If you purchase a ticket on one of these flights, and encounter difficulties traveling to the airport from your location, please contact us at ColombiaEvac@state.gov or (57) 1 275-2000. We have received reports that taxis and bus companies continue to operate, albeit at reduced and limited schedules. If you believe you will have difficulty reaching the airport due to travel restrictions, please provide us with your travel information (name, date of birth, passport number, and contact details).

IMPORTANT:

Due to current travel guidelines in the United States, persons who have been in China, Iran, or certain European countries within 14 days prior to the flight will not be allowed to board this flight.

Onward connections from Fort Lauderdale, Florida are available.

[Mojo Bandit]

I have to apologize to YippieKayay for accidentally deleting his post. It was a great post on investing right now! I was going to respond and agree with him. Respond and Delete are right next to each other on this end and I accidentally hit delete. I am not a good moderator!


Investors call investing right now "buying at the dip". This could be a once in a couple of decade chance to buy this low, especially when we actually know why the market is down and can reasonably assume that it is going to go up when the world goes back to normal.

[Dcrist0527]

Any big cap index in the western world is going to rebound 30% in a years time. There are lots of other undervalued individual stocks but if you want to grab a bunch I suggest an ETF that invests in telecoms in the short term and tourism in the longer term.

No doubt the potential is everywhere. But I believe this is a longer term issue. If and when wave 2 comes through, it will psychologically cripple any growth. And depending on how we react as a society, it could take a decade for the markets to return to where we were. I hope I am dead wrong.

[Elvis 2008]

Now you have Fauci under the 80,000 flu deaths in 2017.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ions-could-die

And in the article is all the good social distancing did. Sigh.

Well, yesterday, NYC Mayor de Blasio said that, after a few days of near capacity numbers, hospitalizations have dropped by such a steep degree that the city believes it has enough ventilators on hand, and won't need any more.

Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he's "cautiously optimistic" that the US might soon see cases reach the back-side of the curve as the "turnaround and that curve not only flatten, but are coming down. ".

So much for those "established numbers" you were talking about.

I have one more prediction. I think when all is said and done. What we did with "social distancing" and most all the other interventions didn't do shit with regards to the virus spreading or not. I think the rapid peak and fall have everything to do with the nature of the virus and our immunity. The world clamored for expert advice, and this is what we were given, and my bet is that it didn't matter at all.

[Elvis 2008]

I'm stuck in the US waiting for my next trip. Would anybody care to speculate on when things will open back up for tourists to Colombia?

JPMorgan used prediction models based on other viruses for the USA and estimated the shut ins will be over May 22, and I think June 6 is when the all clear sign will be given. I looked for that article and could not find it.

Colombia has two things against and for opening up that I see. They really need the money from trade. Unlike the USA, they do not have the world's printing press at their disposal. On the other, they have far fewer ventilators so they have to be careful because of that.

My wild ass guess is 1% in April, 50% chance in May, 75% in June, and 99% by July.

[Elvis 2008]

Meanwhile the US is going through the worst outcome in the world with this epidemic.

That is true if you believe the data from China is accurate. I don't. It does not fit what is being seen everywhere else in the world, and I thought that before the CIA made news saying the same thing.

The pill he is pushing may be good, it may not be. It could help save lives. But it won't come close to denting the impact as long as people don't stay home basically and not spread this thing to other people. And that has not happened because everyone is arguing about all the "distractions" being thrown out there.

I think it is way too early to be saying definitively what works and what does not. I do not know where social distancing saves lives. The goal was to delay the viral spread, to flatten the curve so that the medical system was not overrun. I doubt that is going to happen now. A lot of hospitals are empty because so may elective procedures were delayed.

One thing you have to remember is the "experts" are just so designated that way by the media. People like myself who have dealt with the "experts" have been struck again and again with how wrong they have been, but this is not a conspiracy. What I see is "experts" making projections that politically give them cover. You always overestimate danger rather than underestimate it and then take credit for the actions you embarked on. In fact, the CDC has already done that. Often times, the "experts" do not know what they are talking about because they are presented with questions that have no answers like here. How do you stop the spread of a virus the likes of which the world has never seen before?

The cab driver in Cartagena who was put down in Colombia's covid-19 deaths tested negative for the virus. He was driving a person who tested + for the virus in his cab who was from Italy. The cab driver's sister tested +, but the dead cab driver did not. The point is that cause of death from Covid-19 with this man was an OPINION, and it show everyone that these are not real numbers but estimates. To me, they are better than nothing but not much better than nothing and to make any broad statement about what does and does not work is way premature.

Good luck to all of you. I hope most of you are still alive to argue about this stuff after this is all done.

Yeah, well, I looked up the sensitivity and specificity of the testing last night. The specificity is great, but the sensitivity is God awful. To me, that means the virus is way more contagious than anyone has mentioned and is way less deadly. I suspect that a lot more people have had and are over the virus than anyone has mentioned.

My suspicion for the exponential decline in number of cases then is herd immunity, and all this talk about what was done or not done is kind of mute.