Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

[Zeos1]

You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.

Trying to compare blue vs red states or New York versus Florida is all useless and misses the point. Each area is at a different point in the epidemic, but the percentage increases are actually similar and there are no signs of big improvements anywhere except possibly the initially hard hit areas of Washington State and California. But they are not out of the woods yet by any means.

I think the big problem is / was the unwillingness to do anything about the oncoming train. You're in a rail tunnel. You see the big light, and somehow you think you're going to be okay because, well, dammit, this is the USA. We have the greatest healthcare in the world, etc. Etc. And the leader in chief who changed his story so many times that it makes your head spin.

Anyway. As far as Colombia, I wish them the best. I fear the worst. But hope for the best.

[YippieKayay]

I've been living in Colombia on and off for the past 15 years, mostly in Bogota. I'm here now. I'm glad to be here. I can't think of a better place to wait this out.

I actually really feel sorry for people in North America and Europe when I look at the numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Those are confirmed cases. You think everyone in Bogota is getting tested? The Colombian government is doing its best but I doubt their numbers are accurate. Latin America will become a shit show in about a month. They will likely suffer far worse than Europe.

[JjBee62]

Well, just like scientists supposedly agreed upon global warming, I guess we should just concede and kill ourselves.

Can you fill me in on why you want to discuss global warming? At least use the correct label, "anthropogenically induced climate change. " If you want to discuss it, go ahead and draw up a heat balance for our environment. You'll need it to follow the discussion.

Again, this is actually less than "the expert consensus" which is now at 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. When you are at 200,000 and people just assume we are going to get to one million, IMO, which goes against "expert consensus", that is a pretty big assumption. So is the assumption that we are at 5000 dead now and hitting 25,000. When I see such extreme "expert consensus" , I will always look for evidence to go against those assumptions.

How can a successful investor not understand basic math?

Current evidence suggests this virus spreads twice as easily as the flu. Current evidence indicates it is more likely to result in hospitalization and death than the flu. Using total number of flu deaths is useless for comparison, unless you also compare total number of cases.

Would you compare the quarterly earnings of 2 stocks, without also including company value? Two companies report $5 million in 1st quarter earnings. One company is valued at $100 million, the other at $3 billion. Are you trying to tell us, the $3 billion company is doing better, because more people know the name? That's exactly what you're saying when trying to compare the flu with coronavirus.

The reason is this is Malthusian thinking, and that man will not try to improve his standing. Malthusian thinking is very popular but it is almost always wrong. If Malthus was right, we would all be starving right now. When exactly did climate scientists say we were all going to die because of global warming again?

They didn't. Ever. They never will.

Perhaps a brief introduction to science is needed.

Science is merely a set of tools used to attempt to understand the world around us, much as investors use a set of tools to determine the present and future value of an investment. Clearly some use the tools better than others.

Scientists recognize that their toolkit is imperfect. Everything is a work in progress. The goal is not to learn everything. The goal is to learn more. Learning everything assumes knowledge is finite. It isn't. So scientists learn to improve their tools, learn to better apply available data and constantly refine the current library of knowledge.

Science first recognized the possibility that mankind was capable of altering the climate over 100 years ago. H. G. Wells touched on the subject in 1933 in "The Shape of Things to Come. " Fifty years ago, the general consensus was that mankind would alter the climate, and since then the debate has been over how much and how quickly this would happen.

Now we have access to many years of global data. The data shows the climate has changed. The data shows the global climate is warming. The data shows the rate is increasing. Many like to suggest this is part of the natural climate cycle. If that's true, not just mankind, but the entire planet is doomed. I'll explain.

Roughly, the natural climate cycle is around 40,000 years. The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago. The climate cycle is a sine wave. It can only be a sine wave. There are 4 sections of the natural climate change sine wave. First, the temperature is rising at a steady rate, then the rate of temperature rise drops until it reaches 0. Next phase, temperature drops and the rate of drop increases until it reaches maximum. Third phase, rate of temperature drop decreases until it hits 0. Final leg, temperature begins to increase and rate of increase rises, until max is reached. Each of these takes 10,000 years.

We should be at the peak, when temperatures start to drop, with an increasing rate. Instead temperatures are rising with an increasing rate. That means, in the natural climate cycle, we are just past the peak of an ice age. We have, if it's just natural, 20,000 years of increasing temperatures, and nearly 10,000 years of an increasing rate of increase. Currently, we're at 1° every 25 years. Even if that rate only doubles before peak increase is reached, that means naturally, global temperatures will increase by 1600° over the next 20,000 years. Which is of course ridiculous. Which means removing mankind from the climate equation doesn't work.

Now, if you can get past climate change, we'll move on to your blind spot.

We can't base today's actions on possible future events. When forest fires are burning, do we stop fighting them because we know it will eventually rain? If someone is bleeding profusely do you just wait around because eventually an ambulance will show up? In a casualty situation you take actions based upon what is happening right now, not based upon what the future will surely bring. You make projections based upon what is currently known, not on your hope of future knowledge.

I guess when people die or get sick in those countries it does not matter then? We are on the INTERNATIONAL sex guide here right?

When you're trying to compare two diseases in relation to the US and one of those diseases has already been almost eradicated from the US, yes, it doesn't matter how that disease affects other countries.

Why not bring up US malaria cases? Discussing Tuberculosis is a false equivalency.

[JjBee62]

LOL, Canadians abide by all the rules, And believe everything Trudow says, BTW he is a big liar. Canada has exponential growth (10,000 cases since the 20th) and will most likely be shit show in 2 weeks. Hope I'm wrong about that. https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/.

Rebel News has good videos from your airports on YouTube.

Canadians seem to be taking things more seriously. Friday, at 5:45 pm I got on the 401 westbound from Mississauga. Typically, at that time on Friday, I'd be stop and go for nearly 2 hours, before traffic starts to thin out around Cambridge (about 40 miles). Today I made the distance in 35 minutes. Friday morning on my way in at 7:30 I barely had to slow down. I'd say traffic is down about 65%.

[Bango Cheito]

I've been living in Colombia on and off for the past 15 years, mostly in Bogota. I'm here now. I'm glad to be here. I can't think of a better place to wait this out.

I actually really feel sorry for people in North America and Europe when I look at the numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Fun Luvr]

Sorry I cannot agree that the governor of Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors, and as far at the governor of Georgia, are you of the opinion that he as well is doing better than many Democratic Governors?

You can believe whatever you want, but I am using actual stats, not opinions. I have not mentioned the governor of Georgia, and only mentioned the state of Georgia one time. That was in reference to the number of deaths, and not complimentary. Why haven't you mentioned the governors of Michigan, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Illinois, and Connecticut? The Florida governor is statistically doing better than any of them. I won't even include New York and New Jersey in that list because they are an aberration. In my opinion, the mayor of New York City holds primary blame for those two states. Friday, Mayor de Blasio hinted that he may not want help from Samaritan's Purse, who has set up hospital tents in Central Park, and using their own medical staff and supplies. The reason, they are evangelical Christians. So his religious, or non-religious, beliefs come before the health of the citizens of NYC.

[Judd]

And, what I learned from the past is our Federal response to this crisis has been a total S%%T Sandwich! Now we have Jared Kushner fielding questions from reporters. That can't be a good sign. Time for everyone to put together a "Bugout" bag because shit's going to get weird. Adios!

Florida is the third most populace state and second most visited by foreigners. It is sixth in the number of infections and number of deaths. As for number of infections and deaths in the top ten, only California and Pennsylvania have less per capita than Florida. Using statistics, Florida is doing better than many Democratic governors.

I agree it's a sad situation, too many deaths, but we need to act towards the future. We can learn from the past, but can't change it.

[Elvis 2008]

I thought we'd already been over these things.

Well, just like scientists supposedly agreed upon global warming, I guess we should just concede and kill ourselves.

24,000 flu deaths out of 38-54 million cases.

5,000 coronavirus deaths out of 200,000 cases. Assuming we hit 1 million known cases in the US, number of coronavirus deaths will surpass flu deaths. If we matched the number of flu cases, coronavirus would cause nearly 40 times as many deaths. All based on currently available data.

Again, this is actually less than "the expert consensus" which is now at 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. When you are at 200,000 and people just assume we are going to get to one million, IMO, which goes against "expert consensus", that is a pretty big assumption. So is the assumption that we are at 5000 dead now and hitting 25,000. When I see such extreme "expert consensus" , I will always look for evidence to go against those assumptions.

The reason is this is Malthusian thinking, and that man will not try to improve his standing. Malthusian thinking is very popular but it is almost always wrong. If Malthus was right, we would all be starving right now. When exactly did climate scientists say we were all going to die because of global warming again?

87% of new Tuberculosis cases occur in 8 countries: India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa. The US only has around 9,000 cases of Tuberculosis per year and that number has dropped every year since 1992.

I guess when people die or get sick in those countries it does not matter then? We are on the INTERNATIONAL sex guide here right?

[Elvis 2008]

The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.

Zeos1, I just got told by one of my chicas that a clinic in Medellin was told to not report positive Corona cases. I read a report the death rate in China was 10 to 20 X what was reported. A German infections disease specialist urged German politicians to not include Corona cases if patients tested + but were not ill. If you look at South Korea, a nation almost everyone says did everything right, there was aggressive testing but a huge percentage of positive patients were in their 20's where death rates are very low.

There is no doubt that the number of reported cases in the USA Is the highest, but I would be careful in that the Chinese may not have reported all that they had or tested all the people suffering from symptoms. As for the rate of increase, percentage wise, in the US being the highest, I do not see that at all. The percentage increase in the ramp up or exponential rise of cases is pretty much a pattern I have seen in most countries.

The USA Has the greatest number of reported cases, but we are the third most populated country in the world. China is #1 in population and India is #2, and India so far has not been hit that hard. Even if they were, I wonder how much testing that they could do.

[Elvis 2008]

I've heard various things about the climate factor. Guayaquil and the surrounding region has a much warmer tropical climate compared to Quito and Cuenca. Is that why the virus hotspot is there?

The theory is that hot and humid places have less transmission, and Guayquil is both hot and humid. That is why it is an outlier IMO.

[Nounce]

I was just talking to a woman that works as representative for a factory in Guangzhou China, we were talking about an order I made but she steered the conversation to the virus being so bad in the USA, knowing that the central problem in China was in Wuhan 500 miles from Guangzhou. She said that when world got out about the virus that they only had a few cases in Guangzhou (there is 14 million in Guangzhou city limits but 56 million in that metro area) but that everyone stayed home for one month and then when they did come out everyone was wearing masks and still are wearing masks. An all their cases are recovered. I have now ideal where she gets her info about how many cases etc, how many recovered but for sure they were on lockdown for a month in her city and then they still wear masks outside their homes.

The lockdown in China is stricter than what we are in now. I was talking to a friend by phone a week ago. He said he could not leave his apartment on the 5th floor to another apartment on the 4th floor in the same building. If someone is tested with virus, the infected person is moved to an isolated place and can't have visitor. They are doing it like running a program.

For person in population
__If test (person).
_____Isolate_at_hospital (person)
__Else
_____Isolate_at_home (person)

[Elvis 2008]

It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.

No, the whole notion of Democrats good, Republicans bad or vice versa is laughable.

Washington state is run by a Democrat governor. Health officials there bucked the CDC and tested individuals on their own and decided that Covid-19 was not just due to people who traveled to China but was organically being spread in the community. They get an absolute 10 in terms of management.

IMO Trump gets a 2 out of 10 on his handling of the crisis. He didn't manage the CDC and FDA and take things seriously at first. He seemed to be going based on what he wanted to have happen versus what happened. When the virus exploded, he proclaimed nothing like this has happened before after being warned that it might. He trusted the Chinese president the virus was contained when it was not. There was also his administration's failure to identify domestic Covid spread at a much later time than Washington state officials did. Probably the only thing that Trump did right was to halt air traffic to and from China early on.

The 1 out of 10 goes to New York and Louisiana. The pathetic mayor of New Orleans, a Democrat, let Mardi Gras go on, blamed Trump, and ignored WHO. NYC had a parade through China town and the leadership there proclaimed that anyone against the parade was racist. Chuck Schumer said banning flights from China was racist. The NYC's top public health official told people to continue riding the subways insisting that there was no danger from Covid, and the NYC mayor told NYC citizens to keep eating out at restaurants on the same day the NBA stopped its season. It is no wonder then that Louisiana and NYC are getting decimated by Covid.

With two exceptions, I don't recall much else being either spectacularly bad or good.

The two states that get a -5 are Michigan and Nevada. Preliminary data on hydroxychlorquine and azithromycin were promising. Trump brought up this study and that combination as mentioned by Woodman here was to call that combination of drugs, Trump pills. To me, a decision to use these medications should be left between a patient and doctor. Nevada and Michigan severely restricted use of these possibly life saving medications and implied that they were going to go after doctors who used them.

The governor in Michigan had a feud with Trump and maybe this is Fox News bias but it sure seems to me like this governor showed her incompetence when she asked, "Uh, you know those pills that I said Michigan doctors shouldn't prescribe because they were unproven. Uh, hey, President Trump, can you give me some of them please? I kind of need them for people dying here. ": https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mic...onavirus-drugs.

[Mojo Bandit]

I was just talking to a woman that works as representative for a factory in Guangzhou China, we were talking about an order I made but she steered the conversation to the virus being so bad in the USA, knowing that the central problem in China was in Wuhan 500 miles from Guangzhou. She said that when world got out about the virus that they only had a few cases in Guangzhou (there is 14 million in Guangzhou city limits but 56 million in that metro area) but that everyone stayed home for one month and then when they did come out everyone was wearing masks and still are wearing masks. An all their cases are recovered. I have now ideal where she gets her info about how many cases etc, how many recovered but for sure they were on lockdown for a month in her city and then they still wear masks outside their homes.

[Zeos1]

The US is in the same boat as the rest of the world. The final numbers are not in from anywhere. Tell me the fallacy of comparing current numbers from the US to current numbers from all other countries. The US was in the first wave of countries to get the virus (after China), about the same time as some other countries, and earlier than many countries. The first detected case in the US was nine days before the first detected case in Italy.

Remember, your statement "Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. " I am still looking for most countries that handled it better.

I don't want to be augmentative, just trying to understand your train of thought.

Looking at the numbers for the number of cases around 30 days after the cases hit 100. This is important because the time it took to get to the first 100 varied a lot based on random factors. But once cases hit 100 the increases become more regular. The numbers (taken off a graph, so not exact) for countries I found were as follows:

US 245,000.

Spain - 112,000.

Germany, China, and Italy were all around 70-75,000.

France - 50,000.

UK. Not at 30 days yet, but at 33,000.

South Korea - 9,600.

Those are all countries with early outbreaks, but comparing them at 30 days after the cases hit 100 gives a good idea of how fast the cases are growing. Incidentally South Koreas stopped at around 9600.

[Golfinho]

The rate of increase was the fastest in the US of almost any country. From the time there were 100 cases to the present the US wins the race. Look for the dates when the number of cases reached 100, and compare at 10 or 20 day intervals.

Umm, correlate 'rate of increase' with rate of testing, maybe?