Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

[Knowledge]

I've heard various things about the climate factor. Guayaquil and the surrounding region has a much warmer tropical climate compared to Quito and Cuenca. Is that why the virus hotspot is there?

When you go on climate, international travel to a region, population density, and response to quarantine as the expected variables, Colombia has unfolded exactly as I expected. Ecuador has not. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. But it is an outlier country no doubt.

[Knowledge]

I really hope there is a break before fall. The economic damage will be much less lengthy if that happens. The latest statistics on Caracol news are encouraging for Colombia at least. It's so much better than the US / Europe numbers. As everyone expected, the number of confirmed cases is growing (by about 50% since last week), but the number of recoveries is outpacing both the number of new cases and the number of deaths:

Total de casos en Colombia.

Contagiados. 1161.

Fallecidos. 19.

Recuperados. 55.

I discovered this running statistic on their web site just today:

https://noticias.caracoltv.com/

It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.

I could say a lot more on this topic, but am going to stay out of the political fray.

It's all water under the bridge now, and with the USA now being the number 1 with cases and deaths on the horizon, it will be a long time before Americans are allowed back into Colombia, or other Countries short of a vaccine like a Yellow Fever Certificate but for the Coorona-Virus, or some other certification, and / or being quarantined.

[Elvis 2008]

I hope I am misunderstanding, but Diane Feinstein for president?

It depends. If she just sold her stock out of fear, which is all she has reported to have done, then no, she is just gutless. If she went short, then I would be impressed and say hell yes! LOL.

[Zeos1]

Attempting to restrict the movement of people would more than likely have been unsuccessful. Look how quickly Gov. Cuomo threatened to sue other states when they suggested barring people from New York from entering their states.

South Korea was probably the most efficient handling the virus early on, but their first case was almost the same day as the first case in the US. The US did not have the South Korean response to learn from. Also, geographically, South Korea does not face the same challenges as the US. South Korea had dealt with an outbreak of the MERS virus, so they knew what to do, and they had supplies in stock.

If the New York City metropolitan area totals were eliminated from the US totals, the number of deaths per one million population in the US would be very close to the rest of the world. I have no idea what happened in the NYC area that caused the situation they are in.

I recall hearing the WHO. World Health Organization. Begging countries to take it seriously sometime in early February. And by taking it seriously they were referring to using the things that China was already using. Basically stopping movement of people and stopping people from getting together. Even though the thing had gotten out of hand in Wuhan and that area they were able to slow it and stop it. Albeit with much more strict regulation and enforcement than might be tolerated in other places.

Anyway. Just saying. Most of what we know now was known in mid to late January by every national government in the world. It's just that most chose not to act on it, basically for all the same sorts of reasons. And then some moved quicker than others when it became obvious it was spreading worldwide.

As far as what is happening in New York compared to the rest of the country. I think its just a bit further up the curve time wise. The same rates of increase are happening in other parts of the US, with the exception of Washington and California who did take a more aggressive approach.

And deaths per million, or deaths compared to those infected. The numbers are not in yet. People take longer to die than to catch this thing.

[Fun Luvr]

Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. The US must have thought that it wasn't really going to happen. I'm not sure. They were certainly getting mixed messages from the leaders. Federal and some state leaders. They didn't do the things that other countries did, such as restricting movement of people, getting people to stay at home, etc. Actually, even in the US Washington State and California have handled it a lot better. ...

Attempting to restrict the movement of people would more than likely have been unsuccessful. Look how quickly Gov. Cuomo threatened to sue other states when they suggested barring people from New York from entering their states.

South Korea was probably the most efficient handling the virus early on, but their first case was almost the same day as the first case in the US. The US did not have the South Korean response to learn from. Also, geographically, South Korea does not face the same challenges as the US. South Korea had dealt with an outbreak of the MERS virus, so they knew what to do, and they had supplies in stock.

If the New York City metropolitan area totals were eliminated from the US totals, the number of deaths per one million population in the US would be very close to the rest of the world. I have no idea what happened in the NYC area that caused the situation they are in.

[Surfer500]

California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.

It boils down to politics mostly, if you look at the red states versus the blue states, and the politicians in charge, generally the blue states, such as California, instigated lock down measures sooner than the red states.

I could say a lot more on this topic, but am going to stay out of the political fray.

It's all water under the bridge now, and with the USA now being the number 1 with cases and deaths on the horizon, it will be a long time before Americans are allowed back into Colombia, or other Countries short of a vaccine like a Yellow Fever Certificate but for the Coorona-Virus, or some other certification, and / or being quarantined.

[ChuchoLoco]

Hey, I get it. Do you know the four senators who got spooked and sold their stocks? They seemed to have been the only ones who really got what was going on.

When Michael Lewis went to write the Big Short, he wasn't interested in people who knew. He was interested in people who knew, followed their convictions, and made money off the meltdown. Anyone who had the brains to do that with this crisis is someone I would like to see in office.

I hope I am misunderstanding, but Diane Feinstein for president?

[YippieKayay]

California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.

They don't care. They would sooner kill a grandma than shut down their glorious economy. That's really what it is.

[JjBee62]

It has NOT killed that many. This flu season was 24000.2017 was 80,000 in the USA. We are nowhere near that number.

I am not sure if there has been a virus this contagious before, but the human response to it has been dramatic as well.

To put things in perspective, about two billion people in the world have tuberculosis. 170,000 people die a year or about 5000 a day die from it: https://www.who.int/health-topics/tuberculosis#tab=tab_1.

I thought we'd already been over these things.

24,000 flu deaths out of 38-54 million cases.

5,000 coronavirus deaths out of 200,000 cases. Assuming we hit 1 million known cases in the US, number of coronavirus deaths will surpass flu deaths. If we matched the number of flu cases, coronavirus would cause nearly 40 times as many deaths. All based on currently available data.

To put things in perspective with tuberculosis:

87% of new Tuberculosis cases occur in 8 countries: India, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa. The US only has around 9,000 cases of Tuberculosis per year and that number has dropped every year since 1992.

[Nounce]

Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. The US must have thought that it wasn't really going to happen. I'm not sure.

California does not wait for the federal government to take action. Once the high tech companies found one infection. The companies shutdown the whole campus early on, followed by cites, counties, state last.

I don't understand the reasoning behind some other state officials who balk at quarantine or threaten to sue others when other states want to block people traveling from the highly infected state.

[Zeos1]

What would you have done to change "that way"?

Many other countries handled it differently, a lot better. Actually, most other countries. The US must have thought that it wasn't really going to happen. I'm not sure. They were certainly getting mixed messages from the leaders. Federal and some state leaders. They didn't do the things that other countries did, such as restricting movement of people, getting people to stay at home, etc. Actually, even in the US Washington State and California have handled it a lot better.

There was an animated graph floating around comparing the increase in cases for many countries on a day to day basis. Starting at a threshold of 100 cases. The US was way down the list. Started to move up. And then accelerated moving up past other countries until now it is a way past any other country. First one to hit 1000 deaths in a day.

[Mojo Bandit]

What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.


4.3% of the world population lives in the US.

22% of known cases are in the US.

Nearly 10% of worldwide deaths are in the US.

When you go on climate, international travel to a region, population density, and response to quarantine as the expected variables, Colombia has unfolded exactly as I expected. Ecuador has not. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. But it is an outlier country no doubt.

I agree with Elvis about the two factors that explain the cases in USA. More people travel to the USA and the population density of the areas. Especially NYC where 1/3 of USA cases are really. If you look at the section of the graphic I include all you have to do is add Spain and Italy and there are more cases in these combined countries than USA (I know its been there longer but their curve has not flattened) The current population of Italy is 60,483,53 , population of Spain is 46,750,337, population of the United States of America is 330,520,584. Their combined population is a third of ours. I wonder if that is our future. In the amount of time that is the difference in time between when it hit them and when it hit us are our numbers going to triple?

[Fun Luvr]

And what difference does it make what's happening in China. What's happening in the US is clear. Pandemic. I'm no epidemiologist but I can do simple math.

And it didn't have to be that way. And those that say it's just flu. Perhaps the 1918 flu, but no other flu has killed so many so quickly and spread like this.

What would you have done to change "that way"?

[Elvis 2008]

I can do simple math.

And it didn't have to be that way. And those that say it's just flu. Perhaps the 1918 flu, but no other flu has killed so many so quickly and spread like this.

It has NOT killed that many. This flu season was 24000.2017 was 80,000 in the USA. We are nowhere near that number.

I am not sure if there has been a virus this contagious before, but the human response to it has been dramatic as well.

To put things in perspective, about two billion people in the world have tuberculosis. 170,000 people die a year or about 5000 a day die from it: https://www.who.int/health-topics/tuberculosis#tab=tab_1.

[Zeos1]

Key words - "known cases". We don't have good info on what's happening in some countries, most notably China.

And what difference does it make what's happening in China. What's happening in the US is clear. Pandemic. I'm no epidemiologist but I can do simple math.

And it didn't have to be that way. And those that say it's just flu. Perhaps the 1918 flu, but no other flu has killed so many so quickly and spread like this.