Colombia / Travel Coronavirus Updates

[Combo]

What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.

I haven't seen anything on Ecuadorian response, but have kept up to date on Colombia.

Another thing I'll just note:

4.3% of the world population lives in the US.

22% of known cases are in the US.

Nearly 10% of worldwide deaths are in the US.

Key words - "known cases". We don't have good info on what's happening in some countries, most notably China.

[Lou32]

I have been a loyal Trump supporter since "The Art of the Deal". But I am changing my mind lately over his induced panic and dishonesty over the Corona scam. He is just like another pol now to me. He lied to the American People when he promised never to do that. It's influenza, get over it.

Have you ever had Covid-19?

[Elvis 2008]

What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.

I haven't seen anything on Ecuadorian response, but have kept up to date on Colombia.

When you go on climate, international travel to a region, population density, and response to quarantine as the expected variables, Colombia has unfolded exactly as I expected. Ecuador has not. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. Apparently, Ecuador got a case very early on and didn't go into quarantine right away. It has a lot of people traveling to the Galapagos Islands, and the virus is mostly centered around Guayaquil where the early case came in. But it is an outlier country no doubt.

[Elvis 2008]

I have been a loyal Trump supporter since "The Art of the Deal". But I am changing my mind lately over his induced panic and dishonesty over the Corona scam. He is just like another pol now to me. He lied to the American People when he promised never to do that. It's influenza, get over it.

Hey, I get it. Do you know the four senators who got spooked and sold their stocks? They seemed to have been the only ones who really got what was going on. Trump was saying what he hoped would happen versus what did. The problem is that Democrats, especially New York ones, may have been worse than Trump. So what is the alternative?

In 2008, Obama got the financial crisis way better than McCain or GW Bush did. Those two were truly clueless. I would love to vote for someone who really understood what was happening over Trump but Joe Biden? Come on.

When Michael Lewis went to write the Big Short, he wasn't interested in people who knew. He was interested in people who knew, followed their convictions, and made money off the meltdown. Anyone who had the brains to do that with this crisis is someone I would like to see in office.

[JjBee62]

I know what you mean, but you are using the term death rate and death percentage like they are interchangeable. The percentage death rate will go down with more testing as asymptomatic or barely symptomatic people will be tested. The number of dead has nowhere to go but up.

I agree that it does seem about a 1% death rate. The thing is how do you get to a million? We are at 200,000 now. We are not seeing the exponential rate pf growth like there was. The last five days have been at 20,000 new cases or so. That would be 40 more days at 20,000 new cases a day or this just being a lull before the explosion.

If you have a 1% death rate, you have to get to 2. 4 million before Covid is worse than this year's flu and you have to get to 8 million to get to the flu in 2017. To get that, we would need a pattern not seen in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore or South Korea. Even Italy has gone from its plateau to a downward trend. There is no pattern in any country where I have seen that there is a plateau and then a rapid rise upwards.

What's your take on the Ecuador vs Colombia situation?

Ecuador 2372 cases, 79 deaths, population 17 million.

Colombia 906 cases, 16 deaths, population 49 million.

I haven't seen anything on Ecuadorian response, but have kept up to date on Colombia.

Another thing I'll just note:

4.3% of the world population lives in the US.

22% of known cases are in the US.

Nearly 10% of worldwide deaths are in the US.

[TurdyCurdyOne]

I was actually talking about two failures of the Trump adminstration, one of the things Trump fixed and the other I hope he does. Do you remember when Obama called a police office stupid for arresting a Harvard professor? He, the professor, and the police officer had a beer at the White House. I thought the dumbest thing I ever heard was a Republican making fun of Obama's choice of beer, Bud Light. I was like is this what we have come to? Really?

But that was nothing, Trump derangement syndrome is at a whole other level. When you talk to people with TDS like you two, anything less than Trump is worse than Hitler and YOU get criticized.

And this is why Trump keeps beating Democrats again and again because when you make a guy who is not that bad out to be soooo evil if he is not that evil, you look like fools. Trump calls Joe Biden Sleepy Joe, and Biden obliges him by taking a nap during a crisis that has killed more people than 9-11. THIS is the alternative? So Trump's approval ratings hit record highs even when he and his administration have made so many errors.

The irony about this virus and what the Democrats have done is that they have portrayed Trump as stupid not listening to his experts and blamed him for all the deaths that have occurred. Well, if you are going to give him the blame then you have to give him the credit when things are not that bad. IMO the two medical experts came out and said that there are going to be between 100,000 and 200,000 dead for two reasons: one is to get people to stay strong on the isolation. That is the good. The second is to come up with a number high enough that Trump can brag about if that death total is not reached. That is the bad/political. But with the latest data, no way in hell we are getting to that number..

I have been a loyal Trump supporter since "The Art of the Deal". But I am changing my mind lately over his induced panic and dishonesty over the Corona scam. He is just like another pol now to me. He lied to the American People when he promised never to do that. It's influenza, get over it.

[Zeos1]

I know what you mean, but you are using the term death rate and death percentage like they are interchangeable. The percentage death rate will go down with more testing as asymptomatic or barely symptomatic people will be tested. The number of dead has nowhere to go but up.

I agree that it does seem about a 1% death rate. The thing is how do you get to a million? We are at 200,000 now. We are not seeing the exponential rate pf growth like there was. The last five days have been at 20,000 new cases or so. That would be 40 more days at 20,000 new cases a day or this just being a lull before the explosion.

If you have a 1% death rate, you have to get to 2. 4 million before Covid is worse than this year's flu and you have to get to 8 million to get to the flu in 2017. To get that, we would need a pattern not seen in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore or South Korea. Even Italy has gone from its plateau to a downward trend. There is no pattern in any country where I have seen that there is a plateau and then a rapid rise upwards.

The flu numbers I heard were 50,000 worldwide per year. On average. But there are different numbers floating around. The thing with flu though is that it is spread out through the whole year. It never totally goes away and just circulates around the world. So you would rarely have a big impact in a particular location at a particular time. This one is hitting all at once.

As for the numbers. Yes, hopefully if the number stays at around 20,000 new cases per day in US, and levels off in other places, it will not get to the millions of cases quickly. But last week the numbers of new cases per day were growing exponentially as well. Perhaps with testing, perhaps the spread, perhaps both. And hopefully that has changed.

I know that in many places though, including Canada, the numbers of cases were not just those that had been tested, but also those who were presumed to have it based on symptoms. We also had a higher percentage of testing than the US early on, and still, hence changes in number being tested are probably not influencing our numbers a lot.

[Elvis 2008]

The death rate goes up because it takes 2 or 3 weeks from getting it to finally dying. For some. For the older people it can be quicker. But the death rate will spike a lot because we know there are a lot of people that have just come down with the virus.

I know what you mean, but you are using the term death rate and death percentage like they are interchangeable. The percentage death rate will go down with more testing as asymptomatic or barely symptomatic people will be tested. The number of dead has nowhere to go but up.

So if there's a million people that have the virus. Active cases. About 10,000 will eventually die. So if your testing picks up and you identify more, then at some point it will look like 1% or. 8%.

I agree that it does seem about a 1% death rate. The thing is how do you get to a million? We are at 200,000 now. We are not seeing the exponential rate pf growth like there was. The last five days have been at 20,000 new cases or so. That would be 40 more days at 20,000 new cases a day or this just being a lull before the explosion.

If you have a 1% death rate, you have to get to 2. 4 million before Covid is worse than this year's flu and you have to get to 8 million to get to the flu in 2017. To get that, we would need a pattern not seen in China, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore or South Korea. Even Italy has gone from its plateau to a downward trend. There is no pattern in any country where I have seen that there is a plateau and then a rapid rise upwards.

[LeyenLouvain]

Cartagena's first case was apparently from a cruise ship passenger. Very kind of Colombia to accept bringing in a foreigner with the virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-hospital.html

[Nounce]

It's not a cure. There hasn't been any evidence to show this. There's some data but they need to do proper trials with a control group.

There is no proof but no one has proved it is not effective either.

I think it is a French doctor who has a new study out with about 80 patients. He said a doctor's job is to save lives or something alone that line so he can not do a control group. Italy health insurance now will pay for this medicine.

[Mojo Bandit]

It's not a cure. There hasn't been any evidence to show this. There's some data but they need to do proper trials with a control group.

I agree with you I just wanted to post it the FDA had approved it for this use.

"New York moved to begin trials Tuesday, procuring 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine and 750,000 doses of chloroquine, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. In addition, Bayer, the drug maker, has donated 3 million doses of Resochin, its brand name for chloroquine, to the federal government. ".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/healt...ned/index.html

[Judd]

Correct. Dr. Vuong explained the delays in deaths is linked to Ventilator usage. He said around 20% of those infected will need hospital care. Things go South when a patient develops pneumonia from this infection. Their body starts to "Tire Out" from Breathing difficulty. At that point, they will need to be put on a ventilator for around 10-20 days. Once on a breathing apparatus, the survival rate is not good. He says it's around 20% to 25%.

If you are working in the hospitals right now, I want to thank you for being selfless, and helping to save lives!

The death rate goes up because it takes 2 or 3 weeks from getting it to finally dying. For some. For the older people it can be quicker. But the death rate will spike a lot because we know there are a lot of people that have just come down with the virus. So if there's a million people that have the virus. Active cases. About 10,000 will eventually die. So if your testing picks up and you identify more, then at some point it will look like 1% or. 8%. But there is a 2 to 3 week lag.
Unfortunately the deaths are just getting going. Same sort of curve. Just 2 to 3 weeks behind the infection curve.

[YippieKayay]

This drug has been mentioned in this thread so much I thought this announcement should be posted here.

FDA Approves Anti-Malarial Drugs Chloroquine And Hydroxychloroquine For Emergency Coronavirus Treatment.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachels...rus-treatment/#312 ecf135 e5 d.

It's not a cure. There hasn't been any evidence to show this. There's some data but they need to do proper trials with a control group.

[Zeos1]

I would recommend listening to interviews with former FDA Commisioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb. He seems to be providing the most pertinent information as to why we need to continue testing, the impact the virus will have on our health care system, and the current trajectory of it. Another Dr. That came up on my YouTube feed was Dr. Duc C Vuong. He did a video explaining how this virus ends up killing a person when the infection becomes serious. In a subsequent video, he explained how our death rate will, unfortunately, increase even as the # of infections increase. Conventional wisdom out there is the death rate will go down since we're testing at a much higher rate than a couple of weeks ago.

Stay Safe!

The death rate goes up because it takes 2 or 3 weeks from getting it to finally dying. For some. For the older people it can be quicker. But the death rate will spike a lot because we know there are a lot of people that have just come down with the virus. So if there's a million people that have the virus. Active cases. About 10,000 will eventually die. So if your testing picks up and you identify more, then at some point it will look like 1% or. 8%. But there is a 2 to 3 week lag.
Unfortunately the deaths are just getting going. Same sort of curve. Just 2 to 3 weeks behind the infection curve.

[Mojo Bandit]

This drug has been mentioned in this thread so much I thought this announcement should be posted here.

FDA Approves Anti-Malarial Drugs Chloroquine And Hydroxychloroquine For Emergency Coronavirus Treatment.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachels...rus-treatment/#312 ecf135 e5 d.