Thread: Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!
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10-27-20 00:14 #1781
Posts: 4759EL: I am more afraid by your comment than by the covid. May be have you noticed that this virus seems to be out of control in many parts of the world.
Probably the things will get worse in the coming weeks and may be we will face another quarantine in Europe just because so many people don't respect social distancing. I am afraid that the economical impact will be terrible in the coming months, the biggest winner seems to be China for the moment.
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10-26-20 22:59 #1780
Posts: 1385Originally Posted by Gino02 [View Original Post]
Sometimes I think about all those girls I fucked and wonder if it really happened to me, LOL. Feels unreal.
You pack nearly 8 billion human beings who increasingly over the decades have been rewarded for being more and more social and suddenly ask them to distance, it is a fucking nightmare.
However, I still know I have a privileged life and so many have died and millions more are struggling in multiple ways. Can't wait to say sayonara to this year.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemi...ng-11603704601
Pandemic Fatigue Is Real—And It's Spreading.
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10-26-20 22:40 #1779
Posts: 284Its obvious to me that many people don't know what risk is of having Covid 19.
Media focusing on deaths and cases of Covid is just feeding the fear of the virus for everyone while its known as a fact by data that the risk is very very low for the vast majority of people.
Fact ((150,000 people who die each day across the globe)) almost 55 Million each year, and still Covid is treated like the end of the world with many restricted life for everyone and yet we are talking about going back to normal life with 55 million death! That is nonsense.
I know many are scared, if you want to be safe just stay at your house until you get a vaccine I don't mind.
But I don't get why many scared people just want everyone to follow them! Just as if they will not be safe until everyone is safe!! Again nonsense.
I'm not liking thie overreacting to the virus , and I hope a vaccine will arrive soon and this Pandamec comes to an end.
Good Luck and stay safe.
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10-26-20 22:21 #1778
Posts: 22242Originally Posted by BrahmaPoutre [View Original Post]
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10-26-20 18:46 #1777
Posts: 4759I worked 5 years + in India and that is really not a stereotype, just advice some guys on this forum to take as many times that I have done it, INDIGO flights sometimes it is impossible to seat next to some people just the smell is terrible. After some experiences and good connections I always choose to seat next to Indian Muslim because with them you never get any problems, sorry for that but it was my hard reality.
Coming back to FKK, we all know girls who will never go with other man than white Christian over 50, also sorry for that but it is the reality, obviously these girls are the most beautiful and they are not desperate to get 50 euros.
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10-26-20 15:42 #1776
Posts: 1138Originally Posted by Pessimist [View Original Post]
BTW, I won't ridicule if those folks were just saying that they themselves won't go to FKKs now for their own weaker health conditions or other related situations, and didn't try to lecture others who are going. They were (are) kinda lecturing others to not enlist to military just because they think it's risky. After all it's a fight for the existence of our beloved FKK / P6 system LOL.
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10-26-20 13:28 #1775
Posts: 1385Originally Posted by Jmioffe [View Original Post]
Yes, it should be obvious that FKK WGs are not girls seeking sex but sellers seeking buyers for their service. As any merchant looking to sell their service, they want (a) easy customers (b) high prices (c) repeat customers (d) less effort on their part to minimize the wear and tear on their body to preserve it for future sales.
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10-25-20 19:33 #1774
Posts: 1680Lol
Originally Posted by Mursenary [View Original Post]
https://www.thoughtco.com/false-analogy-fallacy-1690850
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman
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10-25-20 08:39 #1773
Posts: 2344Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
As for the poor not seeking appropriate hospital care due to lack of insurance (and I assume would just all be dying in their homes), it would seem that the hospitalization numbers in the US would thus be an undercount of people who actually need the care. The reality, however, is that people home on their sick beds, scared when looking into the eyes of the reaper, eventually make it to the hospital once the symptoms are severe enough, regardless of consideration of any ability to pay and would thus become a part of the hospitalized census.
As such, I stand behind my assertion that hospitalizations are one of the best live indicators of this pandemic's severity.
Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
But I digress. I'll refer again to hospitalizations as one of the best measures of pandemic severity. While mortality rates are heavily skewed towards the elderly, hospitalization rates are pretty well distributed across the lifespan. Currently, in the United States, nearly a third of those hospitalized are under 50 years of age. During the summer months, their share actually eclipsed that of 65+ year olds. And throughout the pandemic, people under 65 have always made up a larger share of hospitalizations than our 65+ elderly.
Refer to data and link in previous post #1751.
Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
Regardless, the mention of "gold standard" in my original critique is secondary to the main point; which is that the molecular scientist who authored your article, while performing accurate arithmetic, clearly does not understand that positive predictive values and false positive numbers are only relevant to assessing initial screening quality, while correlation to clinical picture is what determines diagnosis. I will also add that he made too many assumptions as variables and the epidemiological grave error of using estimated prevalence of a disease in an epidemic while the epidemic is still happening. He quoted the British Office of National Statistics prevalence estimates. What is the reasoning behind using an estimated statistic as fact to calculate the validity of a molecular test? Agenda and Bias that's what.
Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
https://covidtracking.com/data/national/hospitalization
Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
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10-25-20 05:04 #1772
Posts: 1680False choice
Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
https://owl.excelsior.edu/argument-a...false-dilemma/
You also had a non-sequitur going in your prior post. Yes it's true that in the US, Medicare, or the socialized health care for those 65 years of age and older pays a 20% "add on" for Covid patients. This is part of the Cares Act, and is partly to make up for lost revenues as many elective surgeries have had to be postponed. But there's no evidence of any widespread fraud, in spite of false information floating around conservative social media. It also doesn't make any sense, as many other countries are also having a lot of trouble with the virus where no such extra funding exists. Plus cases have waxed and waned in the US, and at times very distinctly, something we wouldn't expect if fraud was the norm. What we shouldn't trust is posts like yours in a monger forum. US Center for Disease Control data is far more reliable.
https://www.wral.com/fact-check-do-h...ents/19156357/
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/...s/Non-Sequitur
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10-25-20 04:21 #1771
Posts: 1385Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
Airlines and restaurants. No, they will not be ghosts. Ownership will change hands. In the West, there is a well established bankruptcy process, there are hundreds of extremely well funded private equity and vulture investors. Living, thriving, dying is all a part of a time honored business cycle. The planes themselves will not disappear, the pilots will still be there, and so will the airports. When people feel comfortable flying, they will and then the airlines and airports will be ready and waiting. In the meanwhile if Delta or United go bankrupt, all it means is that equity holders get wiped out, and those companies will get recapitalized, other owners and stockholders will step in.
The same will be true for restaurants.
I said in response to Gino. You can't force the response to Covid. You can't force people who are concerned for their health to go to a restaurant or fly or go to a movie theater. Florida and a few other states are in Phase 3 reopening. There are hardly any restrictions, as I understood they don't even have to wear a mask. But does that mean the people of Florida are rushing into packed bars and restaurants? Hardly. It is a fallacy to think economic activity slowed only due to government imposed restrictions. Activity slowed because the consequences of getting infected are real, and most people understand this an not taking chances. Hence economic activity is anemic. Until we have the virus outbreak in control, economic activity will not be ripping. If in the meanwhile shareholders of Delta and United and Pf Chang's and Ruth's Chris Ge wiped out, so what? At some point in the future, they will have new shareholders. And our current socialist government has given enough handouts to all the business groups anyway.
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10-25-20 02:06 #1770
Posts: 6686The question regarding the ups and downs of interest rates and the monetary system is also essential here. And the best lecturer and author on this is Paul Mason. Where he describes how innovation and / wars (rebuilding and equipment in large scale) revitalizes the monetary system / interest rates.
So the push for a new renewable innovation age through the global warming agenda, or investments in automation in regards to export (due to covid-19), falls into Paul Masons system like a glove. Not to mention the newfound arms race with China.
This is not a conspiracy theory. This is economic theory. Far more advanced than you learn at university, but still economic theory. And it works.
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10-25-20 00:32 #1769
Posts: 6686Originally Posted by PahllusMaximus [View Original Post]
And the truth is so obvious too regarding covid-19 and how it was constructed in the Wuhan lab. One does not need to be an armchair expert (cheap rhetoric) if you hear the interviews of Li-Meng Yan, or israeli or Australian doctors talking about the chances of the four amino acids composing the FURIN cleavage, appearing naturally on the perfect place on the virus.
2. Calling it a financial / currency crisis is also a subjective idea. And I even described how without nailing the terms. Because the system is rigged in order to have these ups and downs. One can even say a down period is part of the game, and it is all about playing the game. The casino. But one can also use such incidents for all sorts of political reasons too. It is not about the term conspiracy*. It is about deep political strategies where a long range of global political think tanks with professors having years of experience are involved. Not armchair experts.
3. I will quote you "Or maybe they will promote drugs to make people passive aka the Matrix and blue pill. " By your definition of a conspiracy theory, you just came up with this one! I am not saying you are right or wrong. To some extent, Ritalin is just one example of one such pill. Used for people with ADHD. Whatever that is? A gene told to be a disease because the schooling system is not made for everyone's instinctive ways of learning things? And where physical activity is not being focussed on enough? Well, guess how much sports there are at the collages for the super rich?
4. We are most likely already living inside a simulation, and this whole covid 19 training exercise is just that. An exercise. Which is why people shouldn't be scared of death. It just means you get to test out another simulation instead. Perhaps one where you are a pharaoh, or Ghengis Kahn, having 10 000 girls in your harem. From all over the world. Or you can jump into his life, and experience how that was. After all, a simulation is a simulation. In the most deterministic sense of the word. So everything in the simulation has already happened. Present and past. Even quantum physics indicates this. But now I forgot where I read that unfortunately. But there is a deeper axis of time, and the one we are experiencing is apparently just an illusion. Again, perfectly explainable in case it is all just a simulation.
5. And finally, you fall into this pit where you misunderstand the concept of the age of the information society. Please do not look at it like an 18th century luddite just because you fear your own guilds information monopoly is at siege. There is a reason why George Soros Open Society is working hard in order to publically open up all peer review studies to everyone. And it is not because the global leaders are bad people. But like in all these other incidents some people call conspiracy theories, the final outcome is an evolution that needs to be done. But the ways there can be questioned. And the information flow. One thing this age we are living in can be defined by, is the idea through which most people think they are smarter than others. The idea that I can handle this, but given this and that, others cannot. But the information society can change that, and question the roots of Narcissism. And it does, either we want it or not.
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10-24-20 23:28 #1768
Posts: 539On global conspiracy theories and basic safety
Firstly, yeah, FKKs and P4 P is definitely not sensible at this time given the high risk of spreading.
Secondly, given Occams razor alternatives of (a) a dark smoked filled room of super villains creating COVID to cover up the bank and currency crisis versus (b) a random event like a pandemic, asteroid strike etc and panicked reaction and the general idiocy of the population (the very existence of religion / casinos and / or supporting 99% of politicians is proof mass delusion), I'd take the latter everytime.
That's not to say the world is awash with productivity and not enough real livable wage jobs, or rather income distribution. And so we have currency, money printing and trade war of beggar thy neighbor. Or maybe they will promote drugs to make people passive aka the Matrix and blue pill.
I wonder if we will ever get Bladerunner type pleasure model replicants, ageless, beautiful, disease free, no need for contraception, jealously free, with strong vaginal and anal muscles, suction and an endless repertoire of entertainment and enhanced emotional IQ like Scheherazade to King Shahryar who was so enchanted he fell in love. That would definitely put human hookers out of work.
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10-24-20 22:57 #1767
Posts: 539Beware of the stats
As usual, serious discussion gets lost in arid labels and eristile quasi cult positions than any rational basis. Seems to be the way of the world, where nut jobs become arm chair experts on vaccines that have slayed polio, smallpox, tetnus and others. Newsflash: vaccines work. The problem is that like all good science, it takes a shitload of time, failure and money.
Hospitalization rates are distorted because of financial incentives in the USA for some, and no treatement at all for the poor who are terrorized going to a hospital (assuming they even get seen, having no $ or insurance and a bill for a $100,000 for admission), though more useful in countries where treatment is free. Berlin has the Charit - Universittsmedizin. I'd be interested to see how hospitalization rates compare rather than simply assume admission and attribution of causation, such as mobity "by" or "with" COVID. Suppose an eledery person presents with a constellation of pre-existing issues such as chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, multiple cardiac related issues, emphysema, weak immune system, smoker and COVID, aka a "crumble" ?
Was the latter really the cause or merely the straw that broke the camels back? If so, is the cause weighted for multi-variables or binary? Can we trust the morbidity data anymore than the testing itself and whether it is representative of the population? And who exactly is dying from the dubious attribution? If ageing baby boomers, we have another problem, namely a population bulge so that old age overlaps COVID ascribed deaths. I suggest people here read Nicholas Taleb on how stats are useless in second and third order effects, assuming there is normal distribution in the first place.
As much as clinicians desreve respect, any doctor knows from 1st year about Semmelweis and washing hands between patients. He was ridiculed at the time. The "gold" standards have a pretty chequered history, recent examples including mass prescription of opioids and other iatrogenic harm such as the treatement of diabetes II will pills rather than fixing the underlying lifestyle causes. And lets not start on the brains trust and their aping physicists with fancy nonsense formalas supposedly managing risk and regular bailouts. Or the ratings agencies. And so on.
Skepticism of preisthoods is healthy and necessary, as is regular checking root assumptions and whether the navigation system is working properly. Mursenary assumes a doubling of hospitalizations in winter one in 500, which if true, means we better buys some stocks in funeral home related companies and that hospitals are facing an imminent emergency as will the death industry.
Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI) controls the manufacture of half the coffins in the USA and is not having a boom time, and the average death rates have not budged.
Mursenary correctly states that the trade off discussion on socio-economic is what is needed. COVID is serious. So is opiod deaths: 24 in a 1000 in Ohio (much higher than hospital admissions) roughly 68,000 annually, about a quarter of COVID deaths to date in 2020.
At the rate things are going, airlines, shopping malls and restaurants will be ghosts by 2022. A lot of beautiful young women wanting to trade themselves for our money are deprived, and so are the participants on this board, and those that indirectly depend on the girls income. BJs are good thing, and so is food and sex bringing people together.