Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[PaulInZurich]

... I think we was in grupetto on col de Loze at 5/6 km / h on steepest, and just for green suit and trying to win on Champs Elysees. ...

I'll explain for you how the grupetto works. People who don't care on that particular stage how they place, do as little effort as possible, just enough to not miss the time cut. They save energy for the future stages. So there are oodles of amateurs who went faster than the grupetto on some climb. What those amateurs need to understand is that A) they don't do 21 stages in 3 weeks B) they don't do the full stage before that particular climb and C) any of the pros could still go much faster if they have to and smoke the wannabees.

Just because he was in the grupetto on some stage, does not mean he can't go harder if he wants to.

Did Marc Madiot call you already? He could use a rider who is stronger than Sagan, assuming you don't want salary close to what Sagan makes (EUR 5.5 millions).

[PaulInZurich]

If you compare the curbs from Israel and UK of 2020 with the one of 2021 you will see that the decrease was stronger and faster without vaccine, so we need to wait and the scientifics have to study the things. The problem is not the vaccine or the passport, if in the coming months many vaccinated people get sick it will be game over for the passport. China economy is booming, covid is under control, there is no mass vaccination and no passport, may be we should start to look about the best performers and not about US and UK which are extremely poor performers in the battle against covid.

How did China bring Covid under control? Super hard lockdown. Would that be the solution you propose, EU wide super hard lockdown? That would fly in a non totalitarian state like a lead balloon.

China will not do mass vaccinations?

"Now Beijing is shifting gears, aiming to inoculate 40% of its 1. 4 billion people by the end of June. " I would argue that sounds like mass vaccination.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2B70S8

China will no do a vaccine passport? "China unveiled a vaccine passport this month that could be accessed through WeChat".

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-...thics/13252588

[HammerTime96]

Once enough doses are available, they have to supply any Hausarzt, pharmacy, etc with vaccines.

Count on the middle of April, at the earliest.

https://www.bz-berlin.de/deutschland...or-mitte-april

nicht vor Mitte April

'Not before the middle of April' and this has now been more or less rounded up to the 19th of April, see link below:

https://www.rtl.de/cms/corona-impfun...t-4721017.html

Nach einer Empfehlung der Gesundheitsminister von Bund und Ländern sollen Impfungen in Praxen "frühestmöglich", aber spätestens in der Woche vom 19. April starten.

Today is the 21st, so roughly speaking this will only start 1 month from now.

As I said before: Germans couldn't organize a drinking party in a brewery.

[PaulInZurich]

Yes, and the alternative would have been much easier: allow young and healthy people to build herd immunity (could have been achieved by summer last year, because a virus will quickly 'burn itself out' if it can not find anymore hosts), whilst temporarily isolating the elderly and obese people at risk.

This is what a lot of scientists were advocating, but those scientists have all been censored in the MSM, and on YuTube, Twatter and Shitbook and we could have been fucking hotties in Sharks today with only 50 Euros entry fee before 14:00.

Please tell me again how herd immunity was already achieved in Sweden last summer.

[Canary]

and UK is pushing 40% with first jab.

Actually the UK has vaccinated over 50% of the population.

[Chongmal]

I see now that Delta and Qantas have announced that they will require vaccines for passengers on flights. I think we are on the way to seeing the requirement to prove vaccine history for non Schengen countries to arrive near a Sauna Club.

[HammerTime96]

Before speaking about vaccine passport, I think first we have to evaluate the efficiency of the different vaccines (some medical staff even vaccinated got the covid) and second how will the vaccine works against the new variants and how long the vaccine are efficient, 6 months, 12 months. We can imagine to vaccinated the entire population every 6 months or each time a new variant pop up. Let us see what will happen in Israel in the coming months before taking any conclusions.

Spot on.

Take a look at this interview of Geert vanden Bossche: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJZxiNxYLpc.

He's a vaccine expert (PhD in virology), has helped develop lots of vaccines, worked for lots of pharmaceutical companies, was head of GAVI (the vaccine foundation from Bill and Melinda Gates) and he is now WARNING that the current vaccination strategy is madness.

In case YuTube deletes it, here is another link on BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/video/BNmUyioaAETO/.

Dr Geert vanden Bossche's impressive resume:

Vanden Bossche received his DVM from the University of Ghent, Belgium, and his PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held adjunct faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. After his career in Academia, Geert joined several vaccine companies (GSK Biologicals, Novartis Vaccines, Solvay Biologicals) to serve various roles in vaccine R&D as well as in late vaccine development. Geert then moved on to join the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s GH Discovery team as SPO and later on to work with GAVI as Senior Ebola Program Manager; he subsequently joined the German Center for Infection Research as Head of the Vaccine Development Office. Geert is now primarily serving as a Biotech/ Vaccine consultant while also conducting his own research on NK cell-based vaccines. His work is driven by a relentless passion to translate scientific breakthrough findings into competitive vaccine products. As a creative thinker, innovator, entrepreneur and visionary, Geert has been invited to speak at multiple international congresses.

https://www.geertvandenbossche.org

[ExpatLover]

I don't think anybody made any mutation, just from location where started, but UK spread a lot, making trip, making clusters in some ski resorts, when they knew about, and killing Western continental Europe where they travelled even knowing. When their mutant spread and kill 60% more, I wonder how many deaths from UK mutant, when we know what happened in Portugal, and now in Italy or France where more than 50% new cases are mutant, mostly UK, Germany and Spain preferring to protect versus UK, must be a reason when not helping business.

They made clusters in ski resorts because we let them enter the country, try to make a cluster in China? Each country can close the borders but business is more important than health like for many fucking prostitutes in covid times is more important than to stay safe at home.

[ExpatLover]

Well, we will probably start to see the efficiency of vaccines in a few months, whieverway. Israel is far into it, and UK is pushing 40% with first jab. That will start to reflect in the number of people getting real sick and hospitalized from this damn thing. Once that happens (and hopefully in a good way), maybe we can start seeing countries getting affected more like a normal flu, and stop talking about wave 3, 4, 5 and whatever. And get on with our lives.

But there seem to be a real push from EU and many countries to make corona passport a reality, some to save the tourism industry. Same already have printed versions, and common smarphone apps are in the making.

The passport seem intended for flying, fetstivals, concerts, nightclubs etc where many pepole are in one place or close proximity. Thus it would be obvious to let FKKs open in the same way. EU comission want it ready before summer.

If you compare the curbs from Israel and UK of 2020 with the one of 2021 you will see that the decrease was stronger and faster without vaccine, so we need to wait and the scientifics have to study the things. The problem is not the vaccine or the passport, if in the coming months many vaccinated people get sick it will be game over for the passport. China economy is booming, covid is under control, there is no mass vaccination and no passport, may be we should start to look about the best performers and not about US and UK which are extremely poor performers in the battle against covid.

[HammerTime96]

If now we believe WHO I am afraid we are going to face strong nightmares. The situation is just terrible in many countries in Europe, we all know that 50% of the dead are obese and the most of the other 50% have very limited life expectancy (less than 1 year), I can also go more in details about ethnicity, social class. But all this is just unacceptable for a waste majority of people, milked with twitter, Facebook, CNN.

Yes, and the alternative would have been much easier: allow young and healthy people to build herd immunity (could have been achieved by summer last year, because a virus will quickly 'burn itself out' if it can not find anymore hosts), whilst temporarily isolating the elderly and obese people at risk.

This is what a lot of scientists were advocating, but those scientists have all been censored in the MSM, and on YuTube, Twatter and Shitbook and we could have been fucking hotties in Sharks today with only 50 Euros entry fee before 14:00.

[HammerTime96]

Disheartening, as it didn't have to be that way. I incorrectly expected cases in continental Europe to somewhat follow the UK path, but the problems with vaccine rollout is entirely disappointing while unnecessarily prolonging the restrictions.

That's because you sit in your ER in Southern US playing George Clooney, and you're clueless about how Europe 'works' and clueless about how incompetent Germany and Merkel really are.

As I've frequently said, the EU couldn't organise a binge-drinking party in a brewery, and the EU is a larger copy of Germany, completely dominated by Germany. Smaller, smarte solutions are better, but the EU treats every problem with the same 'efficiency' as the communist USSR, hence the nickname EUSSR.

Anyway, as I predicted, the EU politicians fucked up everything: lockdowns, vaccine rollout, bankrupting the entire economy. Inevitably the 'virus' will mutate and the 'vaccine' will be useless: hence lockdowns forever.

I don't dispute your argument. - Yet I am sure that your numbers are also considered.

No, they do NOT consider 'my' numbers. Read German media, and you'll see that they ONLY focus on the Inzidenz Value, the way a bull focuses on a red flag.

If CV19 is truly going away, increasing tests should result in a lower daily positive rate. Germany is back at where it was in late-October: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/p...ountry=DEU~GBR.

No.

Imagine you have a fictional city of exactly 100 k inhabitants. Also imagine that you do 100% testing of al citizens, an extreme and unrealistic scenario, but this exaggeration is just to illustrate my point. Also assume that the PC test generates 1% false positive results. You automatically get an "Inzidenzwert" of 1000 per 100000 inhabitants!

To make things even more stupid, I'll give you an example from the Berlin suburb of Kleinmachnow: https://coronatest-tks.de.

Notice how it says: "Getestet werden nur gesunde, symptomfreie Personen."

Translation: they are only testing healthy people without symptoms! Hahahahaha! So a fixed Incident Value of 35 + testing hundreds of thousands of healthy people without any symptoms + an x% of false positives = a Incident Value permanently 35.

This is basic math, but most German 'scientists' advising Merkel, and the German media don't seem to get this. Or is this all done on purpose? I'm not a big fan of conspiracies, but such sheer level of stupidity + banning-blocking-censoring any scientist that disagrees with Merkel's absolutely lunatic policies can no longer be a coincidence.

[BigBuddy69]

Is that approach the right approach? Incidence thresholds based on 100 K tests rather than 100 K inhabitants? There is a selective bias for this approach, favoring people who are symptomatic enough to feel the need to take a test or seek medical care in the first place. Basing policy based on percent positive of all tests would naturally give less importance to a major source of transmission, asymptomatic carriers and mild cases, as they will likely never even take the test and their role in transmission to the vulnerable would go unaccounted.
Yes, testing more would produce higher incidence rates with a set population size; but as you state, it will be a more accurate value.
Where you stand on this matter is likely determined by your motivating interest. Are you interested in obtaining real incidence rates for the sake of public health policy or is your goal to get to a target incidence rate that is less reflective of reality but would make it easier for you to get to a brothel.

Both approaches are inaccurate. As you said, there is a selective bias, some of the people taking the test are more likely to be sick: either they have symptoms or they had someone sick in their close circle. But he has a point here: the way the data is communicated to the public is not really clear, and the more you test the more the incidence rate will increase. An increase in the incidence rate doesn't always mean that the virus is spreading faster, it can also mean that the test capacity increased, or that for one reason or another the share of people who are likely to be sick increased in the total number of people passing the test. Either way, the incidence rate communicated is inferior to the real incidence rate but will converge towards the real IR as the test capacity is increasing.

But if we do as he said (displaying the number of positive tests as a percentage of the total number of tests), it won't be so accurate either and probably above the real number for the same reason, the selective bias: the people taking the tests are more likely to be sick. Or you have to do a massive test campaign, encouraging everyone to get tested even if they feel good and offering convenient testing facilities (at work for example and the time you spend doing the tests is taken from your mandatory work time). Or random tests on large enough samples but I don't think it would be legal. Maybe in some authoritarian country?

[BigBuddy69]

Well obviously. He's an elite cyclist and much, much more fit than you.

Everyone with a functioning brain should understand that. We're talking about a man who trains something like 30 or 40 hours a week, who is able to ride a bike during three weeks at an average speed above 40 km / h for more than 3000 km, 30 000 m of cumulative climbing, who can take a part in a massive sprint at the end of some of the stages where the sprinters get close to 70 km / h.

He was 3 times world champion. He's not the kind of guy who puts a mountain bike cassette on some kind of hybrid cheap touring bike and realizes that it's easier to climb with that. Actually he was a mountain biker before, some people should go on the internet to look at some videos he made with one of his teammates riding a Cannondale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwTy3N5T9uw

Maybe he'll get a a better idea of how technical and physical Peter Sagan is. But fantasy worlds hold as long as you avoid confronting them with reality.

[Sirioja]

Well obviously. He's an elite cyclist and much, much more fit than you.

For sure, he is faster when I don t need carbon nor electric gears, but more than 80 kgs, which don t help to climb steep, I think we was in grupetto on col de Loze at 5/6 km / h on steepest, and just for green suit and trying to win on Champs Elysees. Ask him if he enjoyed the spot, when for sure I will return to try to improve. As long I will be able, I will go because fun with adrenaline for me there, when I doubt for him. Look at climber racers and look at him, You should see a bit of difference for body and much more important than carbon versus my alloy I feel much better to try to keep my front wheel on the floor when around 20%, then can t sit.

[Ararat]

Well obviously. He's an elite cyclist and much, much more fit than you.

For sure Peter Sagan is not as fit as me