Thread: Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!
+
Add Report
Results 11,431 to 11,445 of 12069
-
05-23-20 13:39 #639
Posts: 1184It's the economy, stupid!
I'm amazed that people can write about strategies against the Coronavirus without even mentioning the economy!
If the only single goal was to lower the number of deaths caused by see-19 all countries would still be in quarantine!
What Bolsonaro understands is that a lockdown would completely butcher the Brazilian economy! He's afraid of the consequences of a lockdown! He is looking one step further, being smarter, than people screaming in fear because of a virus. I'm extremely disappointed by the other political leaders. It will be rough for us in Nothern Europe, rougher for those in the South and a catastrophe for Brazil. 40 million unemployed in the US, but let's act as if there will be no consequences.
I've been reading comments that without a lockdown everyone will die or half of all people will die. Today we can easily dismiss those claims as scaremongering.
So how many would die? I don't know. No one knows. In Sweden we have 59 deaths among people under 50 years, is that much? I don't think so considering the consequences of a lockdown. This virus is killing the people that pretty much could die from anything.
I would love to blast our government for their incompetence, because they truly are incompetent, but no lockdown was a great and courageous decision to take. It's got nothing to do with nationalism, it was simply the right thing to do in my opinion.
In other countries people have too much of a sunk cost to admit or even entertain the thought that they might have been better off without a lockdown. That in combination with populistic politicians, the media and scared / dumb people lead to the acceptance of a lockdown.
As said, it's not about nationalism.
-
05-23-20 12:46 #638
Posts: 537Get facts right please!
Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
In addition, the vulnerable groups are NOT only elderly people with underlying conditions, but also all other people with respiratory diseases (including Asthma, COPD, CF etc.) all those recovering from cancer treatment, people of all ages with cardiovascular and kidney conditions and I stopped here because the list would be too long. There was absolutely no way of knowing the most vulnerable groups at the beginning of the pandemic because it was a brand new virus and, even now, we still do not fully understand how it works. DO NOT SPREAD FAKE NEWS and listen to the experts.
Sweden have chosen to avoid the lockdown and they now have almost 4000 deaths (or 389 every 1 M people) after having done 20,000 tests every 1 M people. Other countries with similar population size like Czechia, which closed down very early in the epidemic, they have 29 deaths every 1 M people) after having done 36,000 tests every 1 M people.
Sweden has taken a gamble and now they are counting corpses.
-
05-23-20 12:32 #637
Posts: 2073What works for Sweden would not necessarily work for other countries. One, Sweden only has three cities with a population of over 300 K. Two, Sweden is a rich country and with low levels of inequality, in terms of money and access to medical care. This does not hold true for countries like Brazil. The population of Sao Paulo (12 million urban, 21 million metro) is larger than the entire country of Sweden (10 million). Poor people in Brazil do not have the option to social distance nor do they have the savings to sit at and home and reduce their exposure. In earlier forecasts, the Swedish authorities predicted 33 percent immunity by early May, but that figure currently sits at 7 percent in Stockholm. This suggests that Swedish have been fairly good at practicing social distancing, despite there being no "official lockdown".
Sweden's approach has been unique in that most people exhibit a sense of trust and duty toward their fellow gym-goers. He said that Sweden has a culture of being more conscientious about following the rules, a phenomenon Business Insider previously reported on.
"I don't think that Swedish gyms have had a radical approach to this situation, it's just that people are a bit more mindful and careful," he said. "It mostly comes down to gym-goers feeling that sense of social responsibility."
https://www.insider.com/what-its-like-gyms-in-sweden-where-lockdowns-never-happened-2020-5Brazil's death toll meanwhile surged past 20,000 Thursday.
A closer look at the data raises questions about the widely held idea that COVID-19 is mainly dangerous for the elderly.
Of Brazil's victims, 69 percent were aged 60 or older, compared with 95 percent in Spain and Italy, according to official statistics.
The disparity is partly driven by the age of the overall populace: Just 13.6 percent of Brazil's population is 60 or older, compared to 25 percent in Spain and 28 percent in Italy.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/05/22/in-brazil-covid-19-hitting-young-people-harder.html
-
05-23-20 12:28 #636
Posts: 22277Originally Posted by TheCane [View Original Post]
-
05-23-20 10:43 #635
Posts: 264Unfortunately, knowledge about statistcs in this forum is zero.
Continuing comparing apples with pies.
People refer to investigations about antibodies and Corona-deaths with no value at all.
Only statistics on "excess deaths" are valid. And the real conclusion will be known after the second wave.
If anyone really thinks that one can not become immune after Covid-19, then there will neither be any vaccine that works.
Comparing death rates in Sweden with neighboring countries at this moment is nonsense, since Sweden must have XX times more infected (and immune) than Norway, Denmark and Finland that have applied a total premature lock-down strategy.
People claim that "the Swedish strategy is dubious " and "Sweden makes an experiment by NOT locking down". (Sweden is not the only country, also Belarus).
But in reality, it is the opposite.
European countries that lock-down their economies undertake the biggest experiment in modern history.
Amazing that people don't know how similar pandemies have been handled in the past.
During the Asian and HongKong-influences in the 1950's and 1960's there was no lock down whatsoever.
And the economies recovered very fast after the pandemies.
This lock-down is something completely NEW and a real EXPERIMENT.
This time, it will take very long time for economies to recover, due to the stupid lock-down strategy.
No, Sweden does not know anything that other countries do not know. We simply do what is normal in such a situation.
Other European countries have swallowed the "fake news" from China that the whole population must be isolated to handle the pandemic.
Bull-shit.
When most Euroopean countries locked down their economies, the risk groups of Covid-19 were already identified and known world-wide: Old people with underlying diseases.
Most countries decided to isolate their young populations anyway! Not a very clever strategy.
Yes, Sweden did two BIG MISTAKES:
1. Older people in retirement homes were NOT isolated (Instead secondary schools and universities were closed!) Elderly people at these homes continued to meet 10-20 different assistants per week. This is death group No. 1 in Sweden.
2. Older people in immigrant areas were not informed about Covid-19, because they do not understand Swedish. (Reflecting the disastrous Swedish immigration and integration policies). This is death group No. 2 in Sweden.
-
05-23-20 09:58 #634
Posts: 22277Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
-
05-23-20 09:47 #633
Posts: 737About the facts we know
I am not going to respond to anyone directly here and not aim any of the following assertions at anyone, it is just an illustration of some collected analysis from sources and not mere hearsay or anecdotal evidence.
This is a global forum where a lot of people are accustomed to travel and although not everyone here might have an elite education or be very articulate I am surprised at the nationalist chest thumping and to say it kindly the lack of a broad perspective when it comes to discussing the Covid19 pandemic. I was of two minds writing this, some of the responses I have read lack any intellectual rigor whatsoever and can not be construed of as rational arguments, but I have decided to respond nevertheless.
So why has Sweden become an issue of debate here, because it is the sole country in Europe that has advocated against an enforced lock down. So either Sweden knows something every other country in the Europe and wider world, with the exception of wonderfully rational politicians like Bolsanaro, does not know. Or it has chosen a questionable path that even its Nordic neighbors have rejected. The simple assertion that Sweden is right and everyone else is wrong is highly dubious, we will know at the very end of this but the evidence to date is not compelling.
- Arguments to dispute the assertions I have read on this forum.
1. We are not sacrificing our economy that also entails a cost, yes it does, but many countries have chosen this cost and not lightly, this represents a weak argument since in Sweden the economic cost of this pandemic is high anyhow, in fact it is in line with the contraction of the Eurozone and its Nordic neighbors, so if anyone was avoiding a lock down to defray the economic costs, this has not worked.
https://www.politico.eu/article/swed...9-light-touch/
2. We are going to reach herd immunity faster and avoid a second wave, this is in fact possible, but to date there is no evidence for this. Arguments like half the people have had it and we can't measure it are not serious assertions to base policies on, I at one point thought I had had it in March, however you can not be sure and I won't take the risk to get it.
The study in Sweden we have says that Stockholm is far from herd immunity.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...en-coronavirus
In fact the scientists that had predicted higher levels of herd immunity are surprised and said that their model has some seriously false assumptions behind it. Saying you know this is wrong isn't an argument to base serious policy on, it could be wrong and you could also win the lottery tomorrow.
3. The mortality rate is lower than other countries with a lock down. This is increasingly wrong with time.
I had said earlier that certain countries are in different phases of the pandemic, obviously Italy being ahead of the game, and without a lockdown the numbers would increase in Sweden. The fairest comparison would be with countries with similar population densities and climates, ie its Nordic neighbors, I don't think I have to quote any statistics here, they are all too obvious, but the mortality rate and rate of increasing cases in Sweden is many times higher than those countries, there is no doubt about it.
There are many factors as to why a country would have a higher Covid 19 mortality rate, higher population densities and high levels of vitamin D deficiency tend to be a factor. About the vitamin D deficiency, the Nordic countries do not have it but the Mediterranean countries, ie Spain and Italy do, this explains quite a bit.
First the argument was that Sweden had a lower mortality rate than many countries, ie the Netherlands (the most densely populated country in Europe), but now it has supassed the Netherlands and many other countries. The latest argument is that only 5 countries now surpass it. Yes some countries have down worse with a belated or late lock down.
Let us take the UK, this country has had an enormously disastrous and inefficient response to the pandemic, it a long with other countries, was late to respond, so nothing to be proud of here and furthermore England, just England, is even more densely populated than the Netherlands. Italy was first on the scene in Europe and represents a special case. Having a mortality rate lower than these examples is not a compelling argument to say that the national strategy in Sweden was correct. The best contrast would be with similar countries.
4. Only Sweden and Belgium count deaths accurately and in fact the mortality rate is lower than other countries that under count. I have read no evidence of the methodology in Sweden to support this, every country is under counting its deaths with the possible exception of Belgium. The reason is simple, Belgium attributes all non verified causes of death to Covid 19, so it is probably the only country that is over counting, as far as I know Sweden does not do this, does anyone have a credible source to counter this?
I am in fact disappointed that higher levels of immunity are not present and it would have been better for all of us in fact if this strategy was working, but there is not enough, or any, convincing statistical evidence to back this up yet. Therefore this blind sighted confidence in this unique policy is misplaced at present.
The only remaining argument I have heard is that the second wave will be far milder than other countries, that we will have to wait and see, however if it is not, than many people have died in vain. By the way, Herd Immunity was a strategy considered by quite a few European countries, notably the UK, and rejected due to the projected death toll.
-
05-23-20 08:50 #632
Posts: 2207Originally Posted by Arnold15 [View Original Post]
-
05-23-20 08:38 #631
Posts: 264Originally Posted by RogueNation [View Original Post]
It simply depends on that different countries identify real reasons to deaths in different ways.
Here, Belgium and Sweden are top countries since they identify the death reason - other countries (like France) do not.
The only way to calculate Corona-death are as follows:
Number of dead in April 2020 divided by average number of dead in April 2015-19.
Then you get how many percent died more than normal.
And this figure in Sweden is not higher 2020 than 1993, when there was a severe influence.
Comapring period February - May in Sweden 2020 with 2018, then only 1700 more dead people in 2020!
Almost all of them multi-dicesease and average age of 81!
Immunity is much higher than 7 % in Sweden and Stockholm. The Swedish Government has simply only poor test kit to identify antibodies.
At least 50 percent at my work place have had Corona - and it was like a cold for most of them.
Average age of "corona-identified" deaths is 81 years in Sweden.
Corona is only dangerous for ol people with underlying diseases.
Report from Stockholm.
And there is a real free life here.
And people do not die in the streets as some people at this forum seem to believe.
And only wait for the second wave. TSUNAMI in France and BREAZE in Sweden
-
05-23-20 08:05 #630
Posts: 2372Originally Posted by Polyamorist [View Original Post]
So far all studies about general population rate of infection have found that less than 10% people were infected so far, most were quoting 5-7% (Sweden, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, US, Switzerland). That includes studies done specifically in areas where there were many reported infections.
-
05-23-20 03:37 #629
Posts: 4759In France, chloroquine is not considered efficient versus covid, and many health accidents after taking. Quite dangerous if taken like a bonbon.
For how many years we are taking it to fight malaria, personally I took it at least 10 times, all the India medical staff are taking it, widely used in China and Korea, have a look at the notice of aspirin not sure you will ever take one.
-
05-22-20 22:34 #628
Posts: 625Originally Posted by Polyamorist [View Original Post]
No heard immunity around the corner there as well. Former forecasts of high percentages of infections (30%) for Stockholm have been reduced to around 7% max.
RN.
-
05-22-20 21:22 #627
Posts: 22277Originally Posted by Dreams [View Original Post]
-
05-22-20 21:05 #626
Posts: 22277Originally Posted by RockyV [View Original Post]
-
05-22-20 20:53 #625
Posts: 811Originally Posted by Dreams [View Original Post]
I guess in Stockholm they have 20-30% infected by now. It will be interesting to see what effect that has on the R0 number, and if Sweden will end up better than its locked-down neighbors.