Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Rocky V]

Singapore University of Technology and Design has a set of predictions on when coronavirus might end worldwide and for many counties.

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

According to these projections the end of the epidemic in Germany is expected around 6th June, so on the 7th June we may be able to be hand-in-hand with our favourite girl again on our way to the room! LOL.

Rock.

[Pessimist]

This is true, statistics are tricky, and it is hard to equate them 100 percent. In your example, Belgian is an outlier in how it counts its mortality rate, I had read about this and this explains why Belgium's rate is much higher than the Netherlands. However most of the measures are broadly similar and when you see compare outliers you can notice interesting things.

This pandemic has taught us a lot, for example, the German health care system is far more effective than that of France, Italy, Spain and the UK. I am now comparing large countries, the mortality rate figures do not use the exact same methodology, but the numbers are so far apart it is very hard to deny that the Germans have handled this very well.

I like comparing like for like and not completely different countries for the reasons you quoted. In this way it is interesting to note why Belgium's figures were so high and you are right, it is not indicative of policy or its health care system. I was also interesting to compare Switzerland and Austria, Austria has handled this quite a bit better than Switzerland, which has a private health care system, you can draw your own conclusions but I have long thought that the public system in German and Austria is a lot better than the private on in Switzerland. However the private system in Switzerland seems to be a hell of a lot better than the public one in the UK.

Yeah, the temptation to read to too much from Corona death tolls on nationalistic lines is misleading, sometimes jingoistic and just plain nonsensical. Asian nations have been used to fighting respiratory viruses for a while and took this seriously, locked down very early and prevented deaths. Taiwan, being Chinese Formosa, has had 430 cases in total -- right on China's door step. Just 6 people died, as compared to 385 in Japan -- Japan does have 5 times as many people, but still adjusted per population, Taiwan has fared much better.

Vietnam, another country in the vicinity, has had less than 300 cases and zero deaths. Vietnam has 95 million people, only 31 M less than Japan population. Our friend has a habit of dismissing countries he does not like as showing unreliable data, not believable etc, but I think it is clear that Vietnam and Taiwan have controlled it better. Some reasons are obvious. Their populations are more docile and do not question or flout government rules, lockdowns actually work as intended, infected people were forcibly detained in government facilities in Vietnam when they had the virus, their healthcare facilities were on high alert from the beginning of the outbreak and so on. Yes, the US got caught with its pants down this time but if a vaccine or cure comes, it will be American or German / English or some other Western European. I expect France to also cope well with any future virus breaks, and Italy and Spain to do much better than this one. But if corona deaths are the sole indicators of a country's healthcare system, does anyone think Vietnam has a better one than Italy? Next time you become sick, where would you rather be? Italy or Vietnam?

As for the overall tone about Japan, I pointed out once before that GDP per capita in Japan is $39.2 K, only $5 K more than Italy's and $8,000 less than German per capita GDP and $23 K less than US per capita $62.5 K (World bank -- easily seen o Google search). Our friend countered with China having large GDP only due to large population and missed the point that these are *per capita*; Yes, Japan is an important ally, and is an important country in Asia with some Western democratic values and a good counter to have against rising China. But from American pov, it is China and its strength which is a huge concern to our president, our businesses and our population these days.

[Smoothy]

Nicotine may protect smokers against the risk to catch it.

I seriously doubt that to be true.

I had someone tell me the other day that a 20 year old girl died from coronavirus, so the coronavirus is dangerous for young people as well. I asked "did she have any health problems prior to that"? They replied no, no health problems, she was completely healthy.

Later I found out the girl had bad asthma all her life.

My guess is this smoker "study" is also not giving all the details.

[Dreams]

Singapore University of Technology and Design has a set of predictions on when coronavirus might end worldwide and for many counties.

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

Interesting. I mostly agree with it, the only caveat is that all those models are based on the "current " situation staying the same all along. If something change, then it's wrong. For instance, at the beginning of the VIH epidemic, projections were for 8 billions people to die by 2000. But of course, with prevention and treatment being implemented / found, that did not really happen.

[Dreams]

No.

I am much more exposed than personnel (this means All persoennel at hospital), since I travel with Metro, go in shops, and walk among people etc, without any protection at all.

Did you ever heard about something called "viral charge"? The risk of contamination is proportional to the amount of virus excreted. People who go to hospital are sick, by definition and excrete far more viruses that the 5-10 % who maybe infected in the subway.

[Dreams]

But I know the vaccine will be worse.

Blessed those who know.

It will be your human right to refuse the vaccine. But it will other's right to stop you travelling if you are not vaccinated. I, for sure would refuse to deal with people like you, and I believe I will be part of a huge majority. And last, of course, as an ICU doctor, I would refuse to treat you, should you come to my unit with respiratory distress.

[Dreams]

Mortality rate per population is actually more important than just death rate, but death rates in Europe are war level numbers as if they did not care enough if these people die or did not take it seriously or not organized enough, which resulted in such war level death rates.

Please define "war levels".

Vietnam war? 50000.

Holocaust? 6.000.000.

First WW: 10 Millions.

Japanese invasion of China? (200000 Chinese casualties just in Shanghai).

[Dreams]

Learn to read carefully LOL. Hospitals in Japan are not over loaded, we still have about 20 % bed kept free for second wave of pandemic, we are very prepared race. I was referring to hospitals in some western nations being over whelmed and their health care system no longer functioning due to not enough equipment. Hospitals in Japan are fine because we controlled people allowed to be admitted to hospitals to protect medical care system and also first step of aid for mild symptom here is immune system and lock down in house or hotel, then if lung begin to show the slight danger then we use avigan, which seems to work within 6 weeks.

As for Avigan, you research yourself, I cannot be bother to educate you, but for instance Germany is using it as their choice of medicine, it is just that we are producing it for world now, it takes sometime, and first dispatch is in May as I mentioned for free, and it is to selected 20 nations Germany included. You are very white centric, Japan has one of leading medical knowledge, know how, track record, companies and related in world, so if you or your loved ones get infected, I recommend Avigan if you are not pregnant, it is on the way, but it is not cure, it is to prevent you from getting worst and it is working here. But do what you want, Japan is taking international responsibility as we have since day one of this pandemic which we had before west because China is right next to Japan.

Its not by repeating endlessly the same lies that it make them true.

Still waiting for the scientific links proving efficacy of Avigan, in which patients (young, old, mild, severe).

[Dreams]

It can't be easy living life in fear. I feel sorry for the rest of you that are imprisoned in your own homes thanks to a failed lockdown by politicians that are afraid to lose the next election.

Not sure how this relates to my post.

But if you had been in Bergamo end of March you may have changed your mind.

Anyway, I have worked in Sweden many years, and know well the Swedish mentality, very friendly, I liked my time there, but terribly arrogant, they always know better. I was there when Olof Palme was assassinated. They always thought that this kind of things could never happen in their wonderful free society. And could only happen in the uncivilized parts of the world I. E south of Malmoe. Same about them teaching us, those guys living near the Mediterranean, how we should treat better our North Africans immigrants. Now look at the mess they are in with their own, Malmoe is a no-go area.

[Dreams]

I think smoking kill about 70/000 per year in France. I was surprised nicotine could protect versus virus which not develop so fast for smokers.

Nicotine may protect smokers against the risk to catch it. One does not know yet really how good and efficient is this protection, and how much you need to have smoked.

But what is 100% sure is that once a smoker gets it, his risks of having severe pneumonia and death are much higher. Based on hose facts, everyone can choose and decide what to do or not to do.

[Downandup]

Singapore University of Technology and Design has a set of predictions on when coronavirus might end worldwide and for many counties.

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/when-will-covid-19-end

[Turgid]

.....................Damn it, did the World go this mad during the HK flu?

The Hong Kong flu killed over one million people world wide. It struck in two waves with the second wave being worse than the first. It first struck in 1968 and finally completely subsided in 1972. I remember it well I was a teenager back then. I remember there being a lot of talk about it but it was no big deal. Within two weeks of its emergence in July in Hong Kong, some 500,000 cases of illness had been reported. The summer Olympics was held in Mexico in October,1968. Woodstock (crowd of over 400,000), which I wanted to attend was in 1969 but my parents wanted me to come with the family on Caribbean cruise which we did in the summer of that year.

I think the difference between back then and now is firstly, there are many more people in the world today and international travel is greater now so that disease spread is easier and more rapid. Furthermore the world is much more politicized now and leaders retaining their position in government is highly dependent on containing the virus within their respective countries. Sweden's approach is worth study and reminiscent of 1968-70; what is interesting is that its death rate via covid 19 is less than most other European countries with severe lockdowns.

[Delta Indigo]

It's important to know that each country is counting Coronavirus deaths using their own different methodology and at varying pace.

Look at Belgium which has the highest death rate around the world - 631 per million. But they are also being very aggressive in counting anyone who could possibly have died from Coronavirus and count everyone who died everywhere.

Compare that to the UK where it's 317 deaths per million but that only counts those who have died in hospital. It does not count those who have died of coronavirus in rest homes or in the community. Also the Office of National Statistics latest report is up to April 17 as it takes time for death certificates to be recorded. It reports that deaths are double the five year average. So not all deaths that could be related to coronavirus are being counted. The real death toll in the UK could be 45,000 and still be climbing.

Then there are counties where pneumonia deaths are unusually high but there's been few deaths from coronavirus.

I'm using this link for the reporting: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/.

This is true, statistics are tricky, and it is hard to equate them 100 percent. In your example, Belgian is an outlier in how it counts its mortality rate, I had read about this and this explains why Belgium's rate is much higher than the Netherlands. However most of the measures are broadly similar and when you see compare outliers you can notice interesting things.

This pandemic has taught us a lot, for example, the German health care system is far more effective than that of France, Italy, Spain and the UK. I am now comparing large countries, the mortality rate figures do not use the exact same methodology, but the numbers are so far apart it is very hard to deny that the Germans have handled this very well.

I like comparing like for like and not completely different countries for the reasons you quoted. In this way it is interesting to note why Belgium's figures were so high and you are right, it is not indicative of policy or its health care system. I was also interesting to compare Switzerland and Austria, Austria has handled this quite a bit better than Switzerland, which has a private health care system, you can draw your own conclusions but I have long thought that the public system in German and Austria is a lot better than the private on in Switzerland. However the private system in Switzerland seems to be a hell of a lot better than the public one in the UK.

About the different lock down regimes, Switzerland has a relatively lax one and Czechia has a very strict one and the statistics will show glaring differences. When you compare countries you do have to be careful and I have had a keen interest in Statistics for over 30 years and I try to be careful.

I am surprised by the slow progression of the disease in Japan given the population density it has, but even though I do not find our infamous Japanese's mongers explanation convincing, it does sound like a nationalist diatribe, however I think he has a point that social distancing is a cultural norm anyhow in Japan and that is what is keeping the numbers down. For sure their statistics might not be comparable, but the discrepancies are too large.

But if you do not compare countries, then how could you ever infer the difference in outcomes from different policies?

[Downandup]

It's important to know that each country is counting Coronavirus deaths using their own different methodology and at varying pace.

Look at Belgium which has the highest death rate around the world - 631 per million. But they are also being very aggressive in counting anyone who could possibly have died from Coronavirus and count everyone who died everywhere.

Compare that to the UK where it's 317 deaths per million but that only counts those who have died in hospital. It does not count those who have died of coronavirus in rest homes or in the community. Also the Office of National Statistics latest report is up to April 17 as it takes time for death certificates to be recorded. It reports that deaths are double the five year average. So not all deaths that could be related to coronavirus are being counted. The real death toll in the UK could be 45,000 and still be climbing.

Then there are counties where pneumonia deaths are unusually high but there's been few deaths from coronavirus.

I'm using this link for the reporting: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/.

[Arnold15]

20% in people exposed 1000 times more to the virus that you and me.

No.

I am much more exposed than personnel (this means All persoennel at hospital), since I travel with Metro, go in shops, and walk among people etc, without any protection at all.