Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Pistons]

Only 10% of couples are able to stay in love after 18 months. They just don't match well enough. Even if you think you do, you might not be. It comes down to hormones and receptors in your body. So optics is not everything, and personality especially is completely irrelevant. So unless one is very lucky to have become among the 10%, we would probably all wish to have a whole harem of girl untill we eventually find someone.

Unfortunately society at large, makes it very difficult to test out 1000 girls in order to find your perfect match. Let alone you to be hers, while you are still at prime age. And then comes age, and you might loose interest die to age as well.

There is no doubt in my mind that unless we invent eternal youth and uproot the sex slrestrictive practices of western societies especially, nobody will be happy, unless you strike some sort of weired jackpot, which is almost bound to run of date at some point. The closest we get is fkks for most of us.

[Sirioja]

Avoiding marriage, being brainwashed, and investing money and time in health, mental and emotional resilience is a great investment, the best that exists. Say no to alcohol, drugs and bad medical industry, especially the US system. Before we get old and our bodies decay, investing money in mind shattering blowjobs and the thrill of chasing and banging beautiful young women brings lasting memories that helps the brain.

You would be amazed at how many men are financially and emotionally raped by being conned into supporting fat, ugly and farting old women and their brood, neither of which respects or adds value to to man that works hard to make their existence possible. They are the fool in the game. It is we, a select group of mongers that have our lives together and have access to great sexual joy and happiness that 95% of men miss out on.

Highest success in life for me would have been to be able to invest myself with a girl and spend whole life of love together til death. Unfortunately, in my 20's, I was not ready and not able for this and I regret, when I only experienced and not old, death. In France, all women I knew, not only those we had relation, don't ask money when they love their man, matter of pride and image.

[Pahllus Maximus]

Avoiding marriage, being brainwashed, and investing money and time in health, mental and emotional resilience is a great investment, the best that exists. Say no to alcohol, drugs and bad medical industry, especially the US system. Before we get old and our bodies decay, investing money in mind shattering blowjobs and the thrill of chasing and banging beautiful young women brings lasting memories that helps the brain.

You would be amazed at how many men are financially and emotionally raped by being conned into supporting fat, ugly and farting old women and their brood, neither of which respects or adds value to to man that works hard to make their existence possible. They are the fool in the game. It is we, a select group of mongers that have our lives together and have access to great sexual joy and happiness that 95% of men miss out on.

[Pahllus Maximus]

Skip the US retail casino. The smart money seeks out gullible or personally corrupt CEOs who listen to bankers bearing gifts, the idea is getting control on the cheap. Another play is private equity, typically load up the company with debt, make special dividends to insiders, cook the books (lipstick on a pig) and sell off to the gullible public. Or corporate welfare and bailouts they know about that is non-public info or is practically inevitable, ie critical infrastructure that was stripped bare and the raiders exited, forcing government bail out and having claimed the cost of interest as a tax deduction and paying no tax on capital gains. This was the game in 2008, the "Fed Put" and corruption at AIG where insiders deliberately mispriced insurance for short term bonuses with catastrophic risk and lots of side deals outside of the office that made them rich. Many of these companies have no watchdogs or anyone in control looking after stockholders.

This is what all the guys do in London and New York. A variation is buying up distressed debt to takeover a company. Or insider trading. Many people attach themselves barnacle like and strip companies as employees, making sure the board are tame cocker spaniels, CEO pay is such and example along with the complicit consultants like Cap Gemini, Booze, McKinsey etc. One big circle jerk.

What they all have in common is a strong social network of insiders and non-public info where the players who scratch each others back and have access to underwriters who somehow manage to convince the public to buy a pig with lipstick, no matter how many times they have sold rancid meat. There is not a lot of difference between the boiler rooms of the "Wolf of Wall Street" fraud and the major banks in Wall Street.

The best deals are never found offered to the public and most analyst reports are rubbish. The regularity of corporate collapses despite auditors should tell a rational person that the market is mostly rigged. The dot com era and the cryptocurrency were pyramid schemes.

HOW TO WIN.

Yes, I use my network to get the "club" deals. In the public arena, I look for a combination of dividends, buybacks, currency plays and takeover likelihood that I can supplement with mispriced derivatives. The end game is your IRR (including currency gain / loss). For example, Gazprom or Russian companies oversold, Brazil and India that have some good companies. Short selling companies with obviously bullshit accounts (such as commercial real estate and the banks that helped them) and those with fat dividends that draw the punters in whilst the insiders sell out before the truth emerges.

[PaulInZurich]

The legend is from Ovaro, also from Sutrio through Zoncolan resort ski. Third is from the moon? When only 2 routes arrive on top, but You know when You practiced on the field.

From Ovaro: https://www.strava.com/segments/22938420.

From Sutrio: https://www.strava.com/segments/680609.

From Priola (not the moon): https://www.strava.com/segments/1319212. It's shorter than from Sutrio and steeper average.

From Priola joins the road from Sutrio about 4 km before the top.

Like I said, easy to miss the Priola one if you are only with the car.

[Sirioja]

The legend is from Ovaro, also from Sutrio through Zoncolan resort ski. Third is from the moon? When only 2 routes arrive on top, but You know when You practiced on the field. Also only 2 routes for Loze.

And when you really climbed there, then you know good luck on heavy motorbike from Ovaro in the steep, I saw some falling and good luck with car through 3 very narrow tunnels and sharp narrow curves above, not sure prepared improved V8 S5 could, when I can with my legs and balls when I climbed about 10 times this most difficult and legendary side. But you only know when You climbed, not when just reading internet. Look forward climbing on 15/16 September if I m still free and alive. Maybe on Sunday, I will try to climb a third way from the moon and I will be first ever for this.

[Sirioja]

Somebody who doesn't just drive through, would know that there are 3 routes up Zoncolan.

The legend is from Ovaro, also from Sutrio through Zoncolan resort ski. Third is from the moon? When only 2 routes arrive on top, but You know when You practiced on the field. Also only 2 routes for Loze.

[PaulInZurich]

Somebody who doesn't just drive through, would know that there are 3 routes up Zoncolan.

[Pistons]

Well, the stock market is always ahead of real world events. Historically loke 6 months or so, but it almost feels like we are approaching a 9 months headstart now. So when the events actually occurs, we might be 9 months away from a negative slowdown again. But this is usually when the stock is in a segment that is getting media fuzz.

In more obscure segments, it could be we have to wait up to 6 months after the upturn has started.

Media fuzz is thus extremely relevant regarding when to buy and sell stocks.

[Escape Artist]

True with war; however, I think wartime stock market patterns are just logical self-fulfilling prophecies. Markets always initially respond negatively to negative world news as they do not like uncertainty. However, war is generally an external factor that has no permanent effect on most industries, see how natural gas and wheat prices peaked and came down within 6-9 months. Markets eventually and quickly price in effects on commodities, energy, and specific industries heavily affected by war. As such, war tends to create artificial lows creating buying opportunities in other sectors that should not be intrinsically affected, hence Buffett once again.

Good take regarding time. The "time in the market" adage really doesn't apply as much when only considering anything under 10 years, 20 even. However I never really took to the bonds purchasing advice, perhaps because investing during retirement is still 15-20 years away for me. I just see them as an option to lock away money at a good rate if the rate is good in the 5 years or so prior to expected retirement, otherwise I don't see a point. Not unless you see bonds with 6%+ yields. I mean, I figure if I wanted safe income around retirement time and bond rates were low, I could just put money in relatively stable stocks that yield 4% dividends.

I can't argue with what you wrote because it is quite good. I just want to make some side notes.

The Buffetism that I had in mind with my example was that war is not necessarily bad for the stock market. I realize that isn't exactly an ism but people know that he has said it.

In regards to conventual wisdom, it says to subtract your age from 100 and the result is how much to put in stocks. Basically, "It is time in the market until you run out of time".

People who had long bonds per conventional wisdom had a drag on their return when the intention was the opposite. There were people that that seemed to easily see that coming and advised to get out of bonds.

Second,

I find it ironic that our discussion regarding timing the market was followed by a boast of prophetic accuracy. I think the point regarding the fallibility of someone believing they can consistently do so entirely went over his head. Even more ironic is that the claim of August 2021 market events was actually inarguably false as Energy began to rise sharply in September of the previously year (2020) while Tech did not see a sell off until November 2021 as evident by NASAQ, QQQ tech fund, SP Energy, and SP Tech indices. Words of a charlatan I presume.

[Pistons]

I actually coined the tech sell-off in August 2021, and the shift over to energy stocks on the very week it shifted.

Basing my analysis on the theory of how a great war is always used by deep state world leaders in relation to a moneytary reset. Ever since the 1300's when the pope hanged hundreds of freemasonry who charged interest on loans even though that was illegal by the church.

War and currency reset has gone hand in hand ever since, with a 80-100 year timespan of each reset. And the timing for this reset is sometimes towards the end of next year 2024. Another date I calculated 6 or 7 years ago, and has even been mentionned at world economic forum two years ago.

And when you get the war, you also get high energy prices. And when you know you will get high energy prices, you might want to get in early. Summer of 2021 was a good time to get in early.

Ofcourse this cycle of wars and moneytary resets going hand in hand is quite nefarious, and most people might even want to label it a conspiracy theory. But it is what it is. And now we have the chance for the first time in history to get rid of it by introducing official blockchain currencies and charge automatic direct interest on money itself.

[The Cane]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adobe...093249850.html

[BobNSuzy]

LOL, post got out of hand and was a lot longer than expected.

Summary in response to time in the market-non sequitor comment:

Obviously if you can time the market and avoid the falls and only ride the highs, obviously in theory, then that's better than just sitting there taking punches and missing trains. But the point behind time in the market is that in reality, most investors will not be able to time the market better than just being in it consistently. Missed calls usually outweigh the good calls in the long run. The data amongst professionals show that over 80% get it wrong over a 20 year span and 90% of day traders actually take full on losses, much less just in comparison to the general market.

I can't argue with what you wrote because it is quite good. I just want to make some side notes.

The Buffetism that I had in mind with my example was that war is not necessarily bad for the stock market. I realize that isn't exactly an ism but people know that he has said it.

In regards to conventual wisdom, it says to subtract your age from 100 and the result is how much to put in stocks. Basically, "It is time in the market until you run out of time".

People who had long bonds per conventional wisdom had a drag on their return when the intention was the opposite. There were people that that seemed to easily see that coming and advised to get out of bonds.

[Escape Artist]

LOL, post got out of hand and was a lot longer than expected.

Summary in response to time in the market-non sequitor comment:

Obviously if you can time the market and avoid the falls and only ride the highs, obviously in theory, then that's better than just sitting there taking punches and missing trains. But the point behind time in the market is that in reality, most investors will not be able to time the market better than just being in it consistently. Missed calls usually outweigh the good calls in the long run. The data amongst professionals show that over 80% get it wrong over a 20 year span and 90% of day traders actually take full on losses, much less just in comparison to the general market.

[Escape Artist]

You will find this interesting because I know you are a Schwab costumer. The other stock I should not have sold is SCHW which I bought after it fell. I didn't hold it long enough because I could not get past the fact they do not give people a competitive interest rate and that is a major profit center for them. I realize there are work arounds for that but they are arguably not the best in their field.

I can't argue with anything you said but if someone got out of an S&P index fund at the peak they are still ahead especially if they are earning 5 1/2% in three month T Bills. 5 1/2% is a lot for a risk free investment when the S&P pays less than 2%. I think there are some people who can do ok timing the market. They also say not to fight the fed. If someone just followed that advise it remains to be seen how that works out this time around.

The premise of the adage, "It is time in the market, not timing the market" is a non sequitor. They say you will miss out on the best days and show calculations of returns if someone would have been magically out on only the best days. Someone would actually do even better if they were magically out on the worst days. On average the stock market goes up instead of down so someone is better in it. That much is true but what they say is non sequitor.

It is all something to consider. It is not like I have never been in the stock market or have an interest in it. I don't really see how it stays up when the interest rates go from 0 to 6% in a year. But, I have an excuse considering that I am not a professional. It remains to be seen how someone will fare just by not fighting the Fed.

Now if you are talking about stock picking which is what this conversation is about, that is a different story.

Yes, stock picking but in spirit of investing and not so much trading as Buffett famously says he picks companies, not stocks. Obviously it's not that simple as he's also known as a value / bargain investor who buys based on fundamentals to calculate if a company's intrinsic value is higher than its stock price by factoring everything from cash, to economic moat, to if he just thinks the company management is a bunch of dumbasses.

As to your specific points, I think you already made the counterpoint in your second post, "everything seems like a no brainer is retrospect. " Hindsight lets us make the comment "if you did this, then that. " The question is, how often can you get it right and not just get the prediction right, but to also time it right. For example, who knew exactly when to get out in 2022? Markets tanked in January, 2 months before first rate hike. At the time, conversation was around tapering and "transitionary" inflation due to supply chain possibly causing at 10% pull back with 3 rate hikes. We ended up getting sustained inflation, a 22% pullback, and 7 rate hikes in 2022.

Now as for something like investing in Europe during the war / energy crisis, well that's another Buffett-ism, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," basically buy low sell high. But that's just an addition to the "time in the market" position as in practice, Buffett generally buys in a crisis but does not actually ever sell entire positions at peaks. He just finds the best opportunity to buy, not really buying and selling for the maximum amplitude in price fluctuations. Berkshire generally did its best in recessions and did not really outperform when everyone was winning.

And we're just talking about generalities of the market, not even getting into individual stocks where a random bad PR news story or one natural disaster causing a commodity shortage can tank your entire position.

I mean, what's the data say? Something like every year less than half of fund managers beat the market. That number gets even worse over time where something like less than 20% of managers beat the market over a 20 year span. And then there are the day traders and swing traders where every year, only 10% even make a profit.

I'm sure over time, we can all think of those trades where we caught a wave or got out at the right time. But we're probably not even aware of all the times that maybe we got out of a position and didn't even notice how much was left on the table if a stock rose after you got out. Or that stock you didn't buy that popped off. And most people, and especially males, are more prone to remember the good emotions leading one to be optimistic of future prospects. A gambler's mentality. Which leads me to my last point, emotion. Can you honestly say that you've left emotion out of all your trade decisions? Fear? Greed? Of course not, or else you would have gone all in during the Euro energy market drop. Same with American tech at the end of 2022. Did anyone actually think that Tesla and Facebook / Meta were going to stay at 25% of their all time highs?

All this is not to say that you couldn't profit a little extra by swing trading a percentage off the top of your positions to take advantage of some obvious overbought conditions or dollar-cost-average down some purchases when a price drop is artificial and temporary, but to use that as a general strategy as a non-professional when every year less than half of the professionals actually beat the market doesn't seem to be a great long term strategy to me. Maybe you'll make a good call and can even ride a couple positions and sectors for a 5 year tear but what are the chances that you catch all of those educated guesses over multiple decades? And if you actually beat the market over 25 years, would the difference even be enough to warrant the extra time you spent thinking and stressing that much about it?

All this coming from me, a guy who is often overly optimistic and has a gambler's mentality.