Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Sirioja]

Somebody who doesn't just drive through, would know that there are 3 routes up Zoncolan.

The legend is from Ovaro, also from Sutrio through Zoncolan resort ski. Third is from the moon? When only 2 routes arrive on top, but You know when You practiced on the field. Also only 2 routes for Loze.

[PaulInZurich]

Somebody who doesn't just drive through, would know that there are 3 routes up Zoncolan.

[Pistons]

Well, the stock market is always ahead of real world events. Historically loke 6 months or so, but it almost feels like we are approaching a 9 months headstart now. So when the events actually occurs, we might be 9 months away from a negative slowdown again. But this is usually when the stock is in a segment that is getting media fuzz.

In more obscure segments, it could be we have to wait up to 6 months after the upturn has started.

Media fuzz is thus extremely relevant regarding when to buy and sell stocks.

[Escape Artist]

True with war; however, I think wartime stock market patterns are just logical self-fulfilling prophecies. Markets always initially respond negatively to negative world news as they do not like uncertainty. However, war is generally an external factor that has no permanent effect on most industries, see how natural gas and wheat prices peaked and came down within 6-9 months. Markets eventually and quickly price in effects on commodities, energy, and specific industries heavily affected by war. As such, war tends to create artificial lows creating buying opportunities in other sectors that should not be intrinsically affected, hence Buffett once again.

Good take regarding time. The "time in the market" adage really doesn't apply as much when only considering anything under 10 years, 20 even. However I never really took to the bonds purchasing advice, perhaps because investing during retirement is still 15-20 years away for me. I just see them as an option to lock away money at a good rate if the rate is good in the 5 years or so prior to expected retirement, otherwise I don't see a point. Not unless you see bonds with 6%+ yields. I mean, I figure if I wanted safe income around retirement time and bond rates were low, I could just put money in relatively stable stocks that yield 4% dividends.

I can't argue with what you wrote because it is quite good. I just want to make some side notes.

The Buffetism that I had in mind with my example was that war is not necessarily bad for the stock market. I realize that isn't exactly an ism but people know that he has said it.

In regards to conventual wisdom, it says to subtract your age from 100 and the result is how much to put in stocks. Basically, "It is time in the market until you run out of time".

People who had long bonds per conventional wisdom had a drag on their return when the intention was the opposite. There were people that that seemed to easily see that coming and advised to get out of bonds.

Second,

I find it ironic that our discussion regarding timing the market was followed by a boast of prophetic accuracy. I think the point regarding the fallibility of someone believing they can consistently do so entirely went over his head. Even more ironic is that the claim of August 2021 market events was actually inarguably false as Energy began to rise sharply in September of the previously year (2020) while Tech did not see a sell off until November 2021 as evident by NASAQ, QQQ tech fund, SP Energy, and SP Tech indices. Words of a charlatan I presume.

[Pistons]

I actually coined the tech sell-off in August 2021, and the shift over to energy stocks on the very week it shifted.

Basing my analysis on the theory of how a great war is always used by deep state world leaders in relation to a moneytary reset. Ever since the 1300's when the pope hanged hundreds of freemasonry who charged interest on loans even though that was illegal by the church.

War and currency reset has gone hand in hand ever since, with a 80-100 year timespan of each reset. And the timing for this reset is sometimes towards the end of next year 2024. Another date I calculated 6 or 7 years ago, and has even been mentionned at world economic forum two years ago.

And when you get the war, you also get high energy prices. And when you know you will get high energy prices, you might want to get in early. Summer of 2021 was a good time to get in early.

Ofcourse this cycle of wars and moneytary resets going hand in hand is quite nefarious, and most people might even want to label it a conspiracy theory. But it is what it is. And now we have the chance for the first time in history to get rid of it by introducing official blockchain currencies and charge automatic direct interest on money itself.

[The Cane]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adobe...093249850.html

[BobNSuzy]

LOL, post got out of hand and was a lot longer than expected.

Summary in response to time in the market-non sequitor comment:

Obviously if you can time the market and avoid the falls and only ride the highs, obviously in theory, then that's better than just sitting there taking punches and missing trains. But the point behind time in the market is that in reality, most investors will not be able to time the market better than just being in it consistently. Missed calls usually outweigh the good calls in the long run. The data amongst professionals show that over 80% get it wrong over a 20 year span and 90% of day traders actually take full on losses, much less just in comparison to the general market.

I can't argue with what you wrote because it is quite good. I just want to make some side notes.

The Buffetism that I had in mind with my example was that war is not necessarily bad for the stock market. I realize that isn't exactly an ism but people know that he has said it.

In regards to conventual wisdom, it says to subtract your age from 100 and the result is how much to put in stocks. Basically, "It is time in the market until you run out of time".

People who had long bonds per conventional wisdom had a drag on their return when the intention was the opposite. There were people that that seemed to easily see that coming and advised to get out of bonds.

[Escape Artist]

LOL, post got out of hand and was a lot longer than expected.

Summary in response to time in the market-non sequitor comment:

Obviously if you can time the market and avoid the falls and only ride the highs, obviously in theory, then that's better than just sitting there taking punches and missing trains. But the point behind time in the market is that in reality, most investors will not be able to time the market better than just being in it consistently. Missed calls usually outweigh the good calls in the long run. The data amongst professionals show that over 80% get it wrong over a 20 year span and 90% of day traders actually take full on losses, much less just in comparison to the general market.

[Escape Artist]

You will find this interesting because I know you are a Schwab costumer. The other stock I should not have sold is SCHW which I bought after it fell. I didn't hold it long enough because I could not get past the fact they do not give people a competitive interest rate and that is a major profit center for them. I realize there are work arounds for that but they are arguably not the best in their field.

I can't argue with anything you said but if someone got out of an S&P index fund at the peak they are still ahead especially if they are earning 5 1/2% in three month T Bills. 5 1/2% is a lot for a risk free investment when the S&P pays less than 2%. I think there are some people who can do ok timing the market. They also say not to fight the fed. If someone just followed that advise it remains to be seen how that works out this time around.

The premise of the adage, "It is time in the market, not timing the market" is a non sequitor. They say you will miss out on the best days and show calculations of returns if someone would have been magically out on only the best days. Someone would actually do even better if they were magically out on the worst days. On average the stock market goes up instead of down so someone is better in it. That much is true but what they say is non sequitor.

It is all something to consider. It is not like I have never been in the stock market or have an interest in it. I don't really see how it stays up when the interest rates go from 0 to 6% in a year. But, I have an excuse considering that I am not a professional. It remains to be seen how someone will fare just by not fighting the Fed.

Now if you are talking about stock picking which is what this conversation is about, that is a different story.

Yes, stock picking but in spirit of investing and not so much trading as Buffett famously says he picks companies, not stocks. Obviously it's not that simple as he's also known as a value / bargain investor who buys based on fundamentals to calculate if a company's intrinsic value is higher than its stock price by factoring everything from cash, to economic moat, to if he just thinks the company management is a bunch of dumbasses.

As to your specific points, I think you already made the counterpoint in your second post, "everything seems like a no brainer is retrospect. " Hindsight lets us make the comment "if you did this, then that. " The question is, how often can you get it right and not just get the prediction right, but to also time it right. For example, who knew exactly when to get out in 2022? Markets tanked in January, 2 months before first rate hike. At the time, conversation was around tapering and "transitionary" inflation due to supply chain possibly causing at 10% pull back with 3 rate hikes. We ended up getting sustained inflation, a 22% pullback, and 7 rate hikes in 2022.

Now as for something like investing in Europe during the war / energy crisis, well that's another Buffett-ism, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," basically buy low sell high. But that's just an addition to the "time in the market" position as in practice, Buffett generally buys in a crisis but does not actually ever sell entire positions at peaks. He just finds the best opportunity to buy, not really buying and selling for the maximum amplitude in price fluctuations. Berkshire generally did its best in recessions and did not really outperform when everyone was winning.

And we're just talking about generalities of the market, not even getting into individual stocks where a random bad PR news story or one natural disaster causing a commodity shortage can tank your entire position.

I mean, what's the data say? Something like every year less than half of fund managers beat the market. That number gets even worse over time where something like less than 20% of managers beat the market over a 20 year span. And then there are the day traders and swing traders where every year, only 10% even make a profit.

I'm sure over time, we can all think of those trades where we caught a wave or got out at the right time. But we're probably not even aware of all the times that maybe we got out of a position and didn't even notice how much was left on the table if a stock rose after you got out. Or that stock you didn't buy that popped off. And most people, and especially males, are more prone to remember the good emotions leading one to be optimistic of future prospects. A gambler's mentality. Which leads me to my last point, emotion. Can you honestly say that you've left emotion out of all your trade decisions? Fear? Greed? Of course not, or else you would have gone all in during the Euro energy market drop. Same with American tech at the end of 2022. Did anyone actually think that Tesla and Facebook / Meta were going to stay at 25% of their all time highs?

All this is not to say that you couldn't profit a little extra by swing trading a percentage off the top of your positions to take advantage of some obvious overbought conditions or dollar-cost-average down some purchases when a price drop is artificial and temporary, but to use that as a general strategy as a non-professional when every year less than half of the professionals actually beat the market doesn't seem to be a great long term strategy to me. Maybe you'll make a good call and can even ride a couple positions and sectors for a 5 year tear but what are the chances that you catch all of those educated guesses over multiple decades? And if you actually beat the market over 25 years, would the difference even be enough to warrant the extra time you spent thinking and stressing that much about it?

All this coming from me, a guy who is often overly optimistic and has a gambler's mentality.

[Pistons]

As an example of how easy it can be to time the market someone could have just bought European stocks a year and some months ago. I realize people don't have the balls to do something like that but it would not have been that hard or risky. It is just a thought. I also realize the comment could be seen as insensitive and making light of a serious situation. I also realize I don't know what I am talking about when I say it. Everything seems like a no brainer in retrospect. Someone would be up 50% and all it would have taken is for someone to be a Warren Buffet fan and be familiar with his quotes.

Got to buy the start of forward momentum and public fuzz. Not economic triggers. Economic triggers is a bad idea since you will always be beaten by robot traders. But the robot traders cannot take public fuzz and start of forward momentum into account.

Ofcourse one has to also look at basic economic figures like equity, income, debt etc, but only so far.

[Pistons]

Unfortunately, I got the idea that I would trade it and sold. I've missed most of the recent run up. I watched the video and I am kicking myself. I have another stock I am kicking myself for selling also.

The most important thing is to keep following the news ofcourse. But selling Adobe even before the video generating models are out is kinda silly.

Mistake number one is still not to listen to Pistons.

Another interesting stock at the moment is Shopify. But it might be smart to wait a bit considering further reduction in people's spending towards the end of the year. At some point it will be a fantastic case however. Timing will be tricky perhaps.

[BobNSuzy]

As an example of how easy it can be to time the market someone could have just bought European stocks a year and some months ago. I realize people don't have the balls to do something like that but it would not have been that hard or risky. It is just a thought. I also realize the comment could be seen as insensitive and making light of a serious situation. I also realize I don't know what I am talking about when I say it. Everything seems like a no brainer in retrospect. Someone would be up 50% and all it would have taken is for someone to be a Warren Buffet fan and be familiar with his quotes.

[BobNSuzy]

Guess that reinforces the old adage, time in the market beats timing the market. Got down a devastating 60% in 2022 but held on to most positions and recovered all of it this year. If you truly believe in the stock, missing the recent 15-20% run shouldn't deter getting back in it. Heck, 3-month and year-to-date performance, this particular stock has yet to outperform the likes of Tesla, META, or NVIDIA and it's on pace with the other Magnificent 7 stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. You haven't missed anything if you were already exposed to those others, which I surely hope most people were. Point is, it's got room to run, so if you believe in it, no harm no foul jumping back in it. It isn't like Adobe hasn't been around forever. You're not exactly missing a 10 x start up company run. It's Adobe, a mega cap stock for several years who's been a stock analyst's darling for over 5 years. Hell, it's only at 80% of it's all time high right now. Here's one of those generic stock website articles from 2020 that already rated it alongside Microsoft, Facebook / Meta, and NVIDIA as the four mega cap "buys". Don't FOMO too much. Unless of course you're a nut who puts 25-50% of his portfolio in a single stock.

https://stocknews.com/news/adbe-fb-m...-for-the-rest/

You will find this interesting because I know you are a Schwab costumer. The other stock I should not have sold is SCHW which I bought after it fell. I didn't hold it long enough because I could not get past the fact they do not give people a competitive interest rate and that is a major profit center for them. I realize there are work arounds for that but they are arguably not the best in their field.

I can't argue with anything you said but if someone got out of an S&P index fund at the peak they are still ahead especially if they are earning 5 1/2% in three month T Bills. 5 1/2% is a lot for a risk free investment when the S&P pays less than 2%. I think there are some people who can do ok timing the market. They also say not to fight the fed. If someone just followed that advise it remains to be seen how that works out this time around.

The premise of the adage, "It is time in the market, not timing the market" is a non sequitor. They say you will miss out on the best days and show calculations of returns if someone would have been magically out on only the best days. Someone would actually do even better if they were magically out on the worst days. On average the stock market goes up instead of down so someone is better in it. That much is true but what they say is non sequitor.

It is all something to consider. It is not like I have never been in the stock market or have an interest in it. I don't really see how it stays up when the interest rates go from 0 to 6% in a year. But, I have an excuse considering that I am not a professional. It remains to be seen how someone will fare just by not fighting the Fed.

Now if you are talking about stock picking which is what this conversation is about, that is a different story.

[Escape Artist]

Unfortunately, I got the idea that I would trade it and sold. I've missed most of the recent run up. I watched the video and I am kicking myself. I have another stock I am kicking myself for selling also.

Guess that reinforces the old adage, time in the market beats timing the market. Got down a devastating 60% in 2022 but held on to most positions and recovered all of it this year. If you truly believe in the stock, missing the recent 15-20% run shouldn't deter getting back in it. Heck, 3-month and year-to-date performance, this particular stock has yet to outperform the likes of Tesla, META, or NVIDIA and it's on pace with the other Magnificent 7 stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. You haven't missed anything if you were already exposed to those others, which I surely hope most people were. Point is, it's got room to run, so if you believe in it, no harm no foul jumping back in it. It isn't like Adobe hasn't been around forever. You're not exactly missing a 10 x start up company run. It's Adobe, a mega cap stock for several years who's been a stock analyst's darling for over 5 years. Hell, it's only at 80% of it's all time high right now. Here's one of those generic stock website articles from 2020 that already rated it alongside Microsoft, Facebook / Meta, and NVIDIA as the four mega cap "buys". Don't FOMO too much. Unless of course you're a nut who puts 25-50% of his portfolio in a single stock.

https://stocknews.com/news/adbe-fb-m...-for-the-rest/

[BobNSuzy]

Another trigger that has been in the cards for Adobe:

https://youtu.be/saqAYgWanwg

I was not aware of them (ab) using this potentiality before now so strong, but thought of it more as a backup plan. But this is a massive upside to the stock if they get it through!

The only downside is how this will hamper development of AI as a whole, in all of the world. But for Adobe shareholders it could mean access to alot of programming talents too! And could jettison them to be the next trillion dollar company for sure. But only if this goes through.

Unfortunately, I got the idea that I would trade it and sold. I've missed most of the recent run up. I watched the video and I am kicking myself. I have another stock I am kicking myself for selling also.