Thread: Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!
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01-31-24 05:21 #11916
Posts: 236Long Covid here, obviously. Doing the vaccine wasn't a good idea.
The investigation is hitting the wrong.
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01-29-24 01:10 #11915
Posts: 1302Originally Posted by BobNSuzy [View Original Post]
But Intel's recent drop reinforces the original criticism of OP's boasting of short term gains over one month. Chip companies doing well but intel sinks. Case in point. Never said Intel was a bad investment.
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01-27-24 15:15 #11914
Posts: 262Price drop
Bought some Intel at 43.40 yesterday. I had sold. I have no idea what it does from here. If that is passive aggressive I don't care, LOL.
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01-22-24 05:01 #11913
Posts: 1302Originally Posted by BobNSuzy [View Original Post]
Since we're critiquing verbatim accounts in this discussion, then "Don't believe you" or "buying houses in mass" seems to be a weird take as I'm not sure I have even inserted a personal account. In fact, my current real estate exposure is quite modest.
I was having a hypothetical discussion with very vague but realistic numbers, made to be easily digestible, but you seem to be feeling some sort of insecure way about someone making counterpoints. Perhaps you are taking disagreement personally for some reason. A natural inclination to measure dicks perhaps.
What is more to say when someone scoffs at 10-24% ROI? Apparently most people are schmucks for settling for such low returns.
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01-22-24 01:56 #11912
Posts: 262Originally Posted by EscapeArtist [View Original Post]
If someone thinks something is a good investment and they are so inclined go for it. I'm not a big fan of it after doing it myself.
It worked out fairly good for me but I had a few edges like buying during the 2008 financial crisis. My profits are higher than your figures. I am not totally adverse to it though. I would need to be highly compensated.
Your figures are intellectually entertaining. I'll take note that you guys are buying houses in mass at this time.
I'm not really sure I believe you. That is where I am with your posts. I have interest in the topic so whatever you write is entertaining.
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01-21-24 07:24 #11911
Posts: 1302Originally Posted by BobNSuzy [View Original Post]
"rich people throwing money around. ".
Disagree as I simply drew out a counterpoint case useing a relatively modest example of a 40 year old professional wage earner with a financial situation that is reasonable for that demographic. I don't think my case bolsters your rich people play money statement whatsoever. We have people buying properties to rent, not vacation homes or part time AirBnBs.
Whether someone determines that a 250 K rental is a good investment should naturally consider several caveats including location and market conditions at time of purchase rather than making a blanket statement. That statement is inherently flawed as in making a universal statement, one must ignore considerable variables.
Perhaps in Jackson, Mississippi, a single family home's rent prices may be minuscule, a situation that may support your assertion. That is certainly not the same for larger cities or other regions. In my large city, a modest $250 K home in an okay neighborhood easily gathers $2500 per month in rental income or 30 K per year.
Some basic numbers in the rental property market is starting with rental income, add 4% home valuation appreciation, factor 5% income loss in vacancies periods and 40% of income on operating expenses to include items such as tax, insurance, maintenance, HOA, and property management (less if you manage yourself or have no fees).
For a 250 K home:
$30 K rent + 10 K appreciation - 1. 5 K vacancy - 12 K operating expenses = 26.5 K. That's a 10.6% return on 250 K.
But if leveraged as in original example, profits get even more interesting. Add interest expense but calculate return based on a much smaller investment in the form of a down payment, 50 K in this case.
Mortgaging the rest with a 200 K loan at 6% would result in about $1,200 monthly payments, or 14.4 K added to the first year's operating expense.
In this situation, income becomes 26.5 K - 14.4 K = 12.1 K from an initial investment of 50 K for 24% returns.
This obviously comes with more risk than cash assets but also a significantly higher rate of return. It comes with more work than stocks but significant less risk but more work.
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01-21-24 01:44 #11910
Posts: 6681Any news about neuromorphic chips being close to mass production would be devastating for both AMD and Nvidia as I don't think they have anything on that front. At least not yet. I don't think the chips are ready quite yet, but they could be closer than most people would think. Maybe much closer since there are some tight lips surrounding it and the words they use. Sam Altman as well as others.
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01-21-24 01:36 #11909
Posts: 6681Well, I was in a 50/50 regarding trading into AMD a few weeks ago when the sentiment on fed postponing interest rate drops started swirling around. So that was a miss that I didn't do.
However, I don't think AMD will go higher than 180-200. So that bus has left now.
My main reason for sticking to Intel is what I've mentionned here before. And the first time over half a year ago at least. Neuromorphic chips.
Take this article from Dec. 4th:
https://www.wired.com/story/openai-b...up-sam-altman/
And then Fam Altmans recent trips to ME and his wef talk about these new fabs:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...chip-factories
This network of new fabs won't come fast enough anyway. At least not before 2030. And there are only Tsmc, Samsung and Intel he can get expertise from.
Potentially Rain will make their chips at Intels fabs too initially given Intels more globally spread fabs. If this is close to fruition, we might hear about it at Intels foundry day on February 21st. Aptly named AI Foundry day.
1. The statement of fabs around the world indicates that Intels fabs will be used initially.
2. It is mentionned in the article from Dec. 4th that Rain has held advanced talks with Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, Google and Amazon. An analyst (Gus Richard) mentionned that Intel had 6 more fab customers on their way. This lines up with the 5 companies plus Rain. So 6. Could it just be a coincidence? Or maybe not?
3. I saw a video on youtube a few weeks ago where Pat Gelsinger mentionned how Microsoft was working with Google and a few other companies on how to break Nvidias lead in the AI inference market. Since that approach to AI was far from optimal. Pat didn't say neuromorphic chips per say, but was potentially, or probably hinting at it. Intel also have their neuromorphic chip program.
4. Tsmc's fabs are sold out 18 months going forward.
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01-19-24 18:34 #11908
Posts: 262Originally Posted by EscapeArtist [View Original Post]
Whether or not that is a good investment is up to question in my mind. I don't think it is. Some people buy a beach home or whatever and come out a head decades later. Technically, they have invested in real estate but they are kinda just financing a hobby. I imagine that is true of all rich people throwing money around. Your description kinda bolsters my point.
It is kinda like Mark Cuban over paying for a basketball team. If I could buy a basketball team, but chose not to, I might say that it is probably not the best investment. I don't know if a basketball team is a good investment. I do know that I have no intention of buying $250 k starter homes as an investment.
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01-19-24 07:00 #11907
Posts: 1302Originally Posted by BobNSuzy [View Original Post]
Let me paint you a picture using modest but easy to calculate salaries.
Take a married 40 yo couple making $125 K each, a $250 K household.
They have accrued $500 K into their retirement accounts, $150 K in cash assets, have $250 K equity in their 500 K home, no debt, kids older than day care age.
Scenario above is likely above average but is not a super lofty expectation for two 40 year old professional wage earners in America.
This couple would easily get approved for mortgages for 2 starter homes at $250 K a piece. 100 K from cash assets goes into down payments. Set rent to cover loan / taxes / insurance. Maintain $50 K in cash assets to cover unexpected expenses and up to 6 vacancy months.
Continue to work professional wage jobs while maxing out employee match at jobs and keep adding to cash assets account.
So: $250 K household income with $500 K retirement, 50 K cash assets at hand, plus emergency cash reserves. Together they put 24 K into 401 K with 12 K match, 36 K per year.
There, professional wage earners with cash assets and multiple real estate properties adding more to their 401 Ks.
They have a up to a half million dollar exposure to stocks and over a million dollar exposure to real estate, 350 K being in equity and rising each year. Adding more to cash asset investments each year.
Obviously this would be more feasible for a couple in Dallas, Atlanta, and Columbus, Ohio than for couples in San Fran, Miami, or NYC.
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01-18-24 20:24 #11906
Posts: 262Originally Posted by EscapeArtist [View Original Post]
Some people who are born wealthy or somehow amass a lot of money don't have an interest in having a job per se. This is an extreme example but a Pablo Escobar or an Elon Musk could care less about the 401 k match.
I guess at what point does a doctor or a lawyer walk off the job if they don't enjoy it. That could be someone’s definition of rich.
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01-18-24 10:23 #11905
Posts: 1302Originally Posted by BobNSuzy [View Original Post]
And even if also investing in real estate, a sensible person would still first gain significant exposure to stocks through a 401 K if available to them, as that's a guaranteed 50-100% return from a company match in a tax advantage account. Literally zero risk and an instant 50-100% return is a no brainer even before properties, businesses, and today's cash equivalent assets. Even a 100 K earner with a modest 401 K plan of 50% match up to 6% of income puts in a minimum of 18 K per year, 34.5 K per year for 200 K+ earners.
I mean, if someone instantly gives me 11.5 K when I invest 23 K, hell that's better than any investment out there.
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01-16-24 15:22 #11904
Posts: 262Originally Posted by EscapeArtist [View Original Post]
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01-16-24 15:08 #11903
Posts: 262Originally Posted by Ararat [View Original Post]
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01-16-24 02:28 #11902
Posts: 1302Originally Posted by Pistons [View Original Post]
But no, Russian CCCP sleeper cells are not trending. They have been practicing this since the Cold War over half a century ago. Welcome to 2024.
Originally Posted by Pistons [View Original Post]
"Too lazy to trade stocks", then brags about specific stock picks. Brags about history of "investment" prowess but doesn't reveal that his gains were lottery type penny stocks. Then says he's in it for the long haul but only carries one stock, conveniently zero in 2022. The funny part about this "long haul" investor is he either lost all of it in 2021, foolishly closed out all positions in a single year and paid taxes on every single stock asset ever in his "portfolio" in one single tax year, or his profits were so unremarkable that there was no significant tax hit for selling all stocks. Either foolish or bullshit, hard to tell with this one. Bet on both.
At the end of the day, stock picks and strategies of a small wallet investor from a social safety net nation just wouldn't really apply to people with larger sums anyway. This forum has more American posters than any other nation, middle and upper class Americans. We must fund our own retirements so we invest with larger sums of money which also affords better investment options. Larger wallet Europeans should also understand. This guy makes it clear that he does not.
What is a common feature of the friends I have who are actually wealthy and smart investors? They hardly ever talk about it. The friends who are still trying to make it? They always want to talk about it. This guy hasn't made this simple observation. I imagine it would be hard to do so when you have no friends.