Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[Rocky V]

The US has the highest healthcare costs in the entire world, and the highest number of COVID-19 deaths.

Laos has one of the lowest healthcare expenditures on earth, 17 COVID-19 infections, and 0 deaths.

As it turns out, money can't buy everything.

The reporting standards and testing capacities are different. US (population of 331 million people) has so far carried out 131,000 test /1 million people, Laos (population of ca. 7 million people) has carried out just 2,853 tests /1 million people.

To cite Trump: if you don't test you wouldn't have any cases!

Rock.

[Rick Rock]

From March 8:

Salaam Polyamorist. The horses have finished the first lap and right now it looks like nobody will be retiring to Florida any more, and everybody will be retiring to New Zealand, including some of the people who started all the problems in the first place.

But keep searching.

The US has the highest healthcare costs in the entire world, and the highest number of COVID-19 deaths.

Laos has one of the lowest healthcare expenditures on earth, 17 COVID-19 infections, and 0 deaths.

As it turns out, money can't buy everything.

[Rick Rock]

Chomsky, commies, etc. etc. Just curious -- what were these entities saying 10 years ago or 20 years ago?

If you would read the links and the contents within, you'd see that the decline started decades ago. Or you could just open your eyes.

But instead you reply with ad hominem and ask questions you could answer yourself with 30 seconds of research.

That explains more than any GDP stats ever could.

Enjoy.

[Polyamorist]

From March 8:

But when this really is all over, it will be interesting to look back on the statistics and see which countries won the race the end the deaths. Especially if you get old and want to retire to a country with a good health care system. And we see it's not about which country spends the most dollars, but which country has the most people who give a damn.

Salaam Polyamorist. The horses have finished the first lap and right now it looks like nobody will be retiring to Florida any more, and everybody will be retiring to New Zealand, including some of the people who started all the problems in the first place.

But keep searching.

[McAdonis]

You have said multiple times that there is a risk of a revolution / uprising / social unrest in US. I asked "care to say when and what will it look like?" You refused any answer. Bringing up 1860's civil war. How is that relevant? If you are indeed German, should I say there is a risk of National Socialists coming back to power and rounding up people w / o Aryan DNA in Dachau and Buchenwald? If you are French, should I say "but you run the risk of French revolution part deux and Mme Defarge? I do notice you have some Asian sympathies, so if you are Asian residing in EU (or even in US, who knows, you could be located in US and just pulling my leg), then should I say "there is a risk of Manchukuo, cultural revolution, and Eastern front war, etc etc"?

A lot of violent events happened in the past 2 centuries. If you are forecasting any such event repeating in US, please do let us know why you think US is at a higher risk of this than EU. If it is a generic risk you are talking of, w / o any specific dates, again what makes US more vulnerable? The way I see it, European economies are weaker, demographics are worse, there is not enough risk taking, they are excessively dependent on exports (DE) or tourism (Italy / Spain) or financial sector (UK) and also being so fragmented, run the risk of being caught between US / EU. The pension liabilities are mounting and are a real problem. During Greece crisis, we found that most people cheat on taxes and people game their system to retire at 55 w / fat pensions but there are not enough tax payers to pay it.

TBH, back in February, I was convinced that there would be civil unrest in China, wondering if it would be CCP's "Chernobyl Moment". And I have already said, before that I believe there will be massive protests and unrest in China, if economic progress stalls in the next few years. Or farther down the road, if / when China reaches Western levels of GDP per capita. Are those anti-China views? EU I do not see potential for violent civil unrest. They are not a not a young, population and the social safety net is still very much intact. If the economy tanks like you and I predict, then issues arise. The youth minority will be higher than it is now, and they would be effectively locked out. USA, if you asked me probability of a second civil war, I have no idea, maybe 1-3 percent. I just assess the risk to be higher in the USA than in China and the EU. That might change after the election. Tensions are high at the moment, for that simple reason, violent outbreaks are just more imaginable. The probability of a shootout is higher if both guys are already aiming their guns at each other. One false move, and escalation. Political, generational, racial divisiveness. Guns.

As for strife and unrest in China. It is a thuggish, totalitarian society. People know they will disappear if they say the wrong word. In Xinjiang, people cannot step out the door w / o being on camera. Now HK is going the rest of the mainland. China is an existential threat to many Western societies in the long run.

Yes, if one speaks up against the dictatorship, CCP will either censor them or make them disappear. However, such brute-force is not enforcible on large swaths of the population. The CCP is able to crush HK protesters and re-educate Xinjiang only because the majority of the Chinese population believes (or were convinced) that it is in the best interests of China. If CV-19 had spiralled out of control, and say 50 million Chinese across all the major cities in China hit the streets, the CCP would not be able to roll over all of them with tanks. Any action would have to have been preventive, such as a divide and conquer strategy or pushing the propaganda machine. The idea that Chinese people are all obedient, well history does not really support that. The entire 19th century was one rebellion after another, and two were thought to be the result of floods. One of those rebellions lasted 14 years and is thought to be one of the bloodiest conflicts in history. So I believe the CCP feared a repeat a history, and for that reason, they implemented Draconian lockdowns and undercounted the numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1851%E...w_River_floods.

RE: optimism, wikipedia defines revolution as "when the population revolts against the government, typically due to perceived oppression (political, social, economic) or political incompetence". The operative word is "perceived". Look an immigrant, 45 yo Mexican farm worker, who is unable to speak English, is happy that he can make $15 K a year and provide a modest life for his family. He doesn't mind that his family of six all sleep in the same bedroom. He has no aspirations or dreams of his own, but he feels "blessed" because his children, and future generations will have more opportunities than he did. Contrast that to the white 30 yo Ohio factory worker who has seen his $45 K salary stagnate while the cost of living has increased. Then let's say I am rich, liberal White politician born into an upper-middle class family. All three of us have different life circumstances and experiences. Is it appropriate for me to say: "Fuck you Billy Joe, I am not giving you no handouts. Humberto is out there picking fruit. STFU and stop complaining, you have it easy! You should have studied hard and went to an Ivy League like I did!" I am not saying Billy Joe deserves a handout, but I owe it to him to listen to his concerns. If I do not listen, he might join an extremist militia. Humberto's salary is much lower but because he has an "optimistic" outlook on the future he is the one least likely to stir up trouble.

[Pessimist]

I would tend to agree with McA on this one. PPP shows the real wealth, while nominal GDP is the results of big banks staging exchange rates. Like the BIS especially. But other rates also has an impact, oil trade has another massive impact etc etc. And most of the time, it is all about future guesses, as in futures. So casino bets made by big banks mainly based on political factors.

Well, since I did not "disagree with McA", I guess you can agree with me as well, Piston LOL. For that matter, McA does not state his own opinion very forcefully but always asks leading questions. That is fine, we all have our own ways of structuring a discussion.

Economics is not an exact science, and there is more than one way to skin a cat. PPP has its uses (and pitfalls), and so do nominal, relative PPP and other measures. The wiki link I included both pros and cons. Isn't that the common complaint about economists, that if you have 4 economists in a room there are 8 opinions?

Yes, a guy making $2. 5 grand in India, which is their average per capita, will not starve to death -- which he would if he lived on that amount in USA -- because $2. 5 K in India is sufficient to at least eat enough to continue to live because a meal in India would not cost $10 it would cost at a minimum in a NYC deli. But if the dude travels to USA for a vacation with a year's income, it is still only $2. 5 K in his pocket, not whatever PPP says their per capita GDP is.

[Pistons]

Now of course, it has to be like this due to capitalistic production costs, borders and our multiple currency world. But the fact remains that most of the time, most of the people in this world are not tourists. Then use their own currency. And if they start using another currency more, then that other currency is starting to become their new main currency instead.

[Pistons]

I would tend to agree with McA on this one. PPP shows the real wealth, while nominal GDP is the results of big banks staging exchange rates. Like the BIS especially. But other rates also has an impact, oil trade has another massive impact etc etc. And most of the time, it is all about future guesses, as in futures. So casino bets made by big banks mainly based on political factors.

[Pessimist]

I last visited Cap D'Agde in France in 2008. There were many naked hot ladies there. There was the sexy section of the beach where you could bang ladies for free but the lady chose you and not vice versa. A hot lady never chose me for sex, only to give me hand jobs.

I should visit these places more often. I have been in Barcelona dozens of times but somehow or other never visited the beach. I was in Tiergarten in Berlin but did not see many naked chicks, let alone attractive ones. There is a small section of nude beach in San Diego years ago, and more recently near Miami but US nude beaches are worthless. I always had the fantasy of fucking a lovely girl on the beach, half in water. Some day.

[Pessimist]

No. The total inability to respond to a viral outbreak predicted for years is just a symptom of a free fall that started decades ago.

http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2011-...nt_4635120.htm

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...d-for-decades/

https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-ju...-incarceration

https://chomsky.info/20110824/

Enjoy.

A link from China, ACLU and Chomsky are complete evidence that we are doomed. Got it.

Just curious -- what were these entities saying 10 years ago or 20 years ago? Did they predict doom for US back then too? Do they care to explain why we are 30% to 50% richer than Eurozone countries at the moment, in the links MacAdonis provided? Using his favorite PPP, no less.

Thank you!

P.S.: I just looked up and Chomsky is still alive. He does have longevity, doesn't he? I wonder what his secret is. I had a borderline commie roommate in college who worshipped Chomsky. Haven't heard much about him of late. Perhaps I have the wrong set of friends now.

[Pessimist]

Like you say, there is no perfect metric. But from my basic economics class, I was told that when comparing countries, PPP should be used, especially when attempting to compare quality of life, since we take into consideration the basket of goods and services one would be able to afford domestically. If that was an oversimplified explanation that I was given, and there are better metrics, please explain why. Here are the side-by-side line charts for USA and DEU according to the GDP per capita PPP. In 2009, DEU's figure was about 75 percent that of the USA. In 2019, it is about 85 percent of the USA's, so it appears DEU has gained ground, not lost ground. According to OECD estimates, average hours worked in DEU is 1386 whereas in USA it is 1779. I do not know if it appropriate or meaningful to divide by hours worked, but if we calculated a GDP per capita PPP per hour worked, it comes out to $40 in DEU, whereas it is only $36 in USA: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...-US&start=2009.

Quality of life is one thing. The "optimism" of a poor migrant worker in China, is because he is happy with his quality of life, despite his low GDP per capita. He believes his economic prospects for the future are promising, and thus he is less likely to join an extremist group. If China cannot escape the middle income trap, then that statement will no longer hold true, and social unrest would likely erupt in China.

Contrast that to a white factory worker in West Virginia who has seen his wages stagnate, while cost of living has increased. Or maybe he lost his job and the right wing media outlets and social media told him that the socialist liberals are to blame. Such a person might consider joining an extremist group, even if on paper, he makes four times more than migrant worker in China. That's human nature, like you say. He feels he deserves better.

Given history, we know that civil war has happened in USA. That was obviously the USA's greatest existential crisis. On a scale of the 1 to 10 that was a 10. How would you characterise the current moment? And in relation to previous periods of social unrest in USA?

Theory proposed here: https://www.europeangeneration.eu/si...-the-Tech-Race.

First of all, I doubt that you took only one econ class. You are quite cagey and don't let on much; I am sure you had a lot of education and being falsely modest here. Your past comments suggest a lot of thought and research, far more than can be expected from a guy who took one econ class decades ago.

So, my guess is that you already know all this: PPP has its plusses and minuses. I take issue with the comment: when comparing countries, PPP *should be used*; I am not aware of any should. Since you always try to put the ball in the other guy's court by asking "please provide info", I will play the same game and ask "please show where it says PPP should be used". You are a prolific user of Wiki and Google search, and have posted links extensively. The Wiki link for PPP covers the limitations of PPP and Google search will pull up many other articles. There is a vast amount of research and info on this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity

For the purpose of ISG, I would give one example. You can't spend PPP dollars. For instance, China's nominal per capita is $10.2 k and PPP is $16.7 K. If a Chinese dood saved 100% of his annual income (assuming it is the same as per capita GDP) for his upcoming FKK trip, he would be able to bring $10.2 K, not $16.7 K. If he flew to Seoul to illegally smuggle cosmetics, he would have $10.2 K and not $16.7 K. I am able to spend my nominal dollars, and Evita does not accept PPP dollars (or converted into Euros) from me.

Secondly, you deliberately chose 2009 because it suits your argument. To me, that is data mining. In making comparisons like this, end points matter. If I chart the DE v US PPP from 1990, the max allowed range in the link you sent, in 1990 DE was 19.4 K, US 23.8 K, 82%; now it is 56 K to 65.2 K, 86%; so, a small "gain" percent wise, but a larger gap of 9 K vs 4 K. Over the same time, in constant 2010 US $, DE in 1990 was 32.4 K and now 47.6 K; US went from 36 K to 55.8 K; in that sense, DE was 90% of US in 1990 and now 85%.

And BTW, DE is the very best of EU. Perhaps you are a German (I also notice that you carefully guard your own nationality which is just fine, but when you make these comments about other countries, especially not positive comments, would be more honest to disclose what your angle is). But for sure, majority of Europeans slid against US.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...tions=DE-US-XC

The reason a lot of European nations. From Greece to Italy / Spain to others feel DE gives them a raw deal is because DE benefits from having a weak Euro as an export led nation, and dictates ECB policy that benefits DE and not EU zone as a whole.

Your second point on China comparison: I am not even sure where you are going with this. In the prior comment you said you were concerned US was not sleeping at the wheel being too complacent about China and I answered it. But now we are talking about average Chinese dude being happy / optimistic / yadda yadda. Why would that bother me either way? I or other Americans are not hell bent on making sure the average Chinese dude is unhappy. If they are happy with their growth from $5 K to $9 K and happy with their CCP government, so be it.

But again, being cagey and careful, you refuse to be pinned down. You have said multiple times that there is a risk of a revolution / uprising / social unrest in US. I asked "care to say when and what will it look like?" You refused any answer. Bringing up 1860's civil war. How is that relevant? If you are indeed German, should I say there is a risk of National Socialists coming back to power and rounding up people w / o Aryan DNA in Dachau and Buchenwald? If you are French, should I say "but you run the risk of French revolution part deux and Mme Defarge? I do notice you have some Asian sympathies, so if you are Asian residing in EU (or even in US, who knows, you could be located in US and just pulling my leg), then should I say "there is a risk of Manchukuo, cultural revolution, and Eastern front war, etc etc"?

A lot of violent events happened in the past 2 centuries. If you are forecasting any such event repeating in US, please do let us know why you think US is at a higher risk of this than EU. If it is a generic risk you are talking of, w / o any specific dates, again what makes US more vulnerable? The way I see it, European economies are weaker, demographics are worse, there is not enough risk taking, they are excessively dependent on exports (DE) or tourism (Italy / Spain) or financial sector (UK) and also being so fragmented, run the risk of being caught between US / EU. The pension liabilities are mounting and are a real problem. During Greece crisis, we found that most people cheat on taxes and people game their system to retire at 55 w / fat pensions but there are not enough tax payers to pay it.

BTW, I have zero interest to know where you personally are from; but when discussions get into cross country comparisons like this, it helps to know what your angle is. I think that would be honest, but then again, on this board, many people take shots at US but carefully hide their tracks.

Finally, the link you added is interesting; Thanks! I will say that Europe being fragmented does add to their costs and also makes scale economies a bit more difficult to achieve. That part is true. But it is not the only reason. Structurally, they chose a welfare state, rigid labor markets, more regulated bureaucracy, higher taxation, and now they are all shoehorned inta a single currency framework with a lot of national rivalries, animosities. I personally think Europe is in a dicey situation, and China poses more risk for you than for us.

[Turgid]

Ouch. Thanks for that graphic imprint LOL. Yeah, nude resorts are the same. Never find any attractive young chicks.

I last visited Cap D'Agde in France in 2008. There were many naked hot ladies there. There was the sexy section of the beach where you could bang ladies for free but the lady chose you and not vice versa. A hot lady never chose me for sex, only to give me hand jobs.

[Sirioja]

Ouch. Thanks for that graphic imprint LOL. Yeah, nude resorts are the same. Never find any attractive young chicks.

Like swinger clubs, only uglies, when difficult for me to find attractive look at expensive Globe Zurich and never felt wow at Aphrodisia where girls are available for minimum 280.

[Rick Rock]

Why? Because we screwed up Covid response.

No. The total inability to respond to a viral outbreak predicted for years is just a symptom of a free fall that started decades ago.

http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2011-...nt_4635120.htm

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...d-for-decades/

https://www.aclu.org/issues/smart-ju...-incarceration

https://chomsky.info/20110824/

Enjoy.

[Pistons]

And lets not talk about the Amish.

Plus, this can be found all over the world, and has nothing to do with Asia, nor east Asia. Studies performed in Bangladesh regarding microloans given out to highly religious women by the Grameen Bank of Bangladesh found that religious cult mindsets made people more likely to hold their words, and pay back their loans. But there were also massive downsides to this way The Grameen Bank operated (and still do to some degree). I am sure you can google that, but it leads to never ending poverty on large scale. And this is also seen with the black economy in China.

Furthermore, in Africa and South America, simillair cases has been seen, although not documented as well as with the Grameen Bank. The Freemasons of Europe for example, are notorious for having this belief that following a religion (christianity especially) are a massive net positive for capitalism as a whole due to these exact very same reasons. But they are essentially a cult. At every level. And this can be said about all the brotherhoods of christian europe. And even Skull and Bones in USA etc etc. And they all consider age first, then other ranks later. And these types of Cult Mindsets are always the same, and always dangerous.