Rants and WTF are you talking about and Coronavirus!

[McAdonis]

Is it really a seller's market? Because so far I was not acting as a buyer. Grin - were you? - I can imagine that there are not many buyers out there for three main reasons:

A) many fear loosing their job- lots are aleady in "Kurzarbeit" - a model that allows you to stay employed, while making only 60% of the money.

B) many fear a covid-infection. We should realize that the risks are a bit unknowsn.

C) it is *illegal* in Germany right now.

I will amend my statement, it is a sellers market for some WGs, particularly the ones who are of interest to the ISGer audience. I believe a "princess" at Sharks (someone who is in the top ten percent of earners), if she stays in the Frankfurt area while the FKK clubs remain closed, her current earnings probably exceed her old Sharks earnings. In other words, if she got on average six one hour bookings at 100 EUR per hour at Sharks, she is able to get at least four one hour bookings at 150 EUR per hour via incall / outcall. Why? Because I believe such a WG would be popular amongst Sharks customers who are local to Frankfurt area. If I am a Sharks regular, and I see a Sharks WG on KM, even if she is a WG I never sessioned with, I would consider booking her. At least I know what I am getting, because I would have seen her in person or I would have heard about her service. Kaufmich and Ladies is much more a roll of the dice. Too many fake photos.

RE: Kurzarbeit. How many in German received this? One in ten workers. Would they be high earners or minimum wage? If minimum wage, I would assume that they would not be the type to attend Sharks, not regularly anyway.

RE: Health concerns. I agree many are playing it safe. But as the pandemic lasts longer, I think some men are reasoning that it is okay to see one or two WGs and just 3-4 sessions a month, seeing it is a calculated risk. In any case, it is safer than going to club with 100 mongers and 30 WGs, where the volume of social and sexual interactions is significantly higher.

[Pessimist]

One thing I have to add here is that even if the covid-19 virus is around, the mutations are not as bad right now. So attaining a mild version of it at the moment might even be smart long term to build up that T-cell production for your immune system. Much better to get it now than when a more dangerous version of the virus mutates, and then you don't have any form of defences in terms of T-cells.

"the mutations are not as bad right now".

Are you talking specifically today, as opposed to 3 months ago? In the US, clearly fatality rates have declined but that is also because younger people are infected more these days and also some people think death tolls could spike in the next few weeks as death is a lagging indicator and we did see infections counts spike up in the last month.

Or are you saying that this in general has been a mild virus and fatality rate is less than 1% and hence we would want to get it now? In that case, do you think fatality rate goes up to 2% or 3% in future?

Many people, from Bill Gates and others, have said fatality is going to be slightly less than 1% from the very initial stages of this outbreak and so far it seems they are on the mark.

[Pessimist]

Over the past six months, every monger I know has either been relatively unscathed financially or saw their net worth increase. .

The real question, is the monger's spending decision based on fluctuations in net worth or is it based on net income changes?

Say, if you have 5 million stashed away; whether the $5 M became $5.5 M or $4.5 M in the course of last few months (a loss or gain of $500 K, which to most people is quite substantial), the monger is still able to spend at the same level as he used to. Even if the fluctuation is larger, say a million bucks, he still has the ability to spend at the same levels as before (I. E. A few thousand dollars per trip to Germany). His networth fluctuations *may* impact him psychologically and he may be elated to depressed (or stoic, depending on his personality), but just from a pure financial angle, there is no discernible change in his ability to spend.

If the monger's networth is say, $100 K, then it is a different matter. If the amount fluctuates by the same percent as above, I. E. 10%, he could be at $90 K or $110 K, but either way it is not meaningful. Even if the fluctuation is 20% as in the example above, $80 K is not that much different from $120 K. In this situation, the spending intent could be driven much more by salary and the sustainability of salary. Even if the current job is safe till now, due to pandemic fear he may be scared that he could lose his job, that his next job may take a few months to find; uncertainty about the salary amount in future also plays a role.

These are two extreme examples, but then again they may not be. Even more extreme: what if someone had $10 M to start with? What if someone has no savings whatsoever and all his mongering spend comes out of monthly salary and if he has no job then he cannot monger?

Also, does he have other issues? People with a family could have completely different calculations (desire to leave most of networth to children, secure their long term future etc), but the guy also may have a paycheck from spouse he can count on even if loses his job. Or some men may not be currently married but still paying alimony and child support in which case they are doubly screwed. Not only there is no cushion of having a spousal paycheck, they are also on the hook to pay out money from their past savings even if they lose their own current job.

I would think most of the Americans who fly out regularly to monger in Europe (I. E. Not those who use a tute once or twice if they happen to be in Europe, but those who regularly fly to Europe mainly for the purpose of having paid sex) are generally well off. I. E. Networth exceeding at least half a mil. If someone has no savings cushion whatsoever, and still travels to Europe regularly for sex, he is spending mainly out of monthly paycheck, which seems crazy to me. He runs the risk of not having any fallback cushion if his job / comp takes a dive. Unless the man is making high six figures salary; but that begs the question why he has no savings / networth to start with?

[Kartoffel]

One thing I have to add here is that even if the covid-19 virus is around, the mutations are not as bad right now. So attaining a mild version of it at the moment might even be smart long term to build up that T-cell production for your immune system. Much better to get it now than when a more dangerous version of the virus mutates, and then you don't have any form of defences in terms of T-cells.

Seriously, what do you know.

[Pistons]

One thing I have to add here is that even if the covid-19 virus is around, the mutations are not as bad right now. So attaining a mild version of it at the moment might even be smart long term to build up that T-cell production for your immune system. Much better to get it now than when a more dangerous version of the virus mutates, and then you don't have any form of defences in terms of T-cells.

[Pistons]

Is it really a seller's market? Because so far I was not acting as a buyer. Grin - were you? - I can imagine that there are not many buyers out there for three main reasons:

A) many fear loosing their job- lots are aleady in "Kurzarbeit" - a model that allows you to stay employed, while making only 60% of the money.

B) many fear a covid-infection. We should realize that the risks are a bit unknowsn.

C) it is *illegal* in Germany right now.

Yeah, I'd have to agree. Given the circumstances, it is most likely leaning heavily towards a buyers market right now. Hopefully that won't harm recruitment too much though.

[Kuni042]

Is it really a seller's market? Because so far I was not acting as a buyer. Grin - were you? - I can imagine that there are not many buyers out there for three main reasons:

A) many fear loosing their job- lots are aleady in "Kurzarbeit" - a model that allows you to stay employed, while making only 60% of the money.

B) many fear a covid-infection. We should realize that the risks are a bit unknowsn.

C) it is *illegal* in Germany right now.

.... It is currently a seller's market. There are not many cheaper alternatives. The FKK clubs where men could readily find sex for 100 EUR per hour remain closed (unless one is willing to drive to NL). Additionally, there is less supply in Frankfurt because many WGs have still not returned to DE.

[Pessimist]

Okay sounds like you are saying the massive stimulus is artificially propping up the finances of the average American. What happens when they pull the plug on that? Civil unrest? If yes, that would affect the portfolios of the white collar Americans as well, right? As I said, 40 million Europeans received economic assistance, so Europeans have not suffered any consequences (so far). I am waiting for someone to chime in to reassure me otherwise..

We have to wait and see. Of course the US government can keep spending more money on stimulus until the economy mends itself. Herd immunity or a vaccine or something else. And this stimulus could be funded by Fed. The thing is that US has an independent currency; for good or bad, US dollar generally becomes stronger during times of global economic distress.

I think European countries have less fiscal flexibility because they do not have their own currency (those in Eurozone). ECB has done LTRO operations and other bond purchases in the past but in general, European countries do not want ECB to monetize individual countries debt too much. Germany or NED or Austria don't want to be responsible for the debt of Spain or Italy or Portugal. So, I think if this drags on for too long, Europe would have less flexibility to support their population with government spending I think. But in general Europe has much better control on the virus outbreak than we do and I don't think they need to support their people to the same extent we have to. We already spent several trillion dollars in the last few months. I don't think Europe spent as much money.

Normally if a country spends as much as US is, and it has an independent convertible currency, FX should be crashing by now. Dollar is not crashing because we are living in a world of beggar thy neighbor. Every government has been reckless and profligate.

[ExpatLover]

Replay from EL: there is a alternative staying far away from all the P6, they are all manipulating us, starting from WHO, this sick is aggressive, better to limit to the minimum all the social contacts as long the things are not under serious control.

[Mursenary]

Over the past six months, every monger I know has either been relatively unscathed financially or saw their net worth increase. But regarding your point about "uncertainty in the world", I do not know if that luck continues. Like you said once before, the global economy is interconnected, if the economies of EU, USA, or China crash, they bring everyone else down with them.

I suspect the answer to this depends on your industry and your investment positions as I don't think that there will be an equal crash across the board like in 2000 or 2008. If your financial livelihood depends on the financial sector, real estate, service, or other brick and mortar leisure industries, you might be in for some tough times.

STEM fields will see an accelerated boost as will any industry that has or is able to quickly develop a strong virtual presence. E-commerce, E-entertainment, E-anything has already seen a huge boost and there is no reason to think that would change, the world was already headed that way pre-covid. Healthcare and education are at their watershed points, not that education had a huge private sector market share, but there might be a market grab coming up. Somehow renewable energy has maintained momentum despite decrease demands. I suspect that they're operating out of funds from pre-covid grants and contracts.

[Mursenary]

That's not the correct information to estimate death rate because of Covid19. In Belgium, for example, they include as Covid19 deaths even those that are simply suspected to have been caused bby Covid19. The only way to verify the death rate due to Covid is to look at excess deaths for each country compared to the previous two years. Based on the correct data, UK has the highest death rate in the world at the moment.

You make a good point about excess deaths and true death rates. Considering those numbers should give pause to making concrete assertions; however, the excess death rates in the US has not been higher in comparison to western european nations, although the data is incomplete. Some comparisons below, with NYC being the only comparison point, but if skewed, only favors undercounting in America.

Side note, like Belgium, US also counts non-confirmed persons of interest as covid deaths if the covid test was negative or pending but medical workup was otherwise consistent with covid disease processes.

[Mursenary]

Too much to unpack here as it was a small novella posted to a message board. I can say that the pathophysiology here shows a rudimentary, surface level familiarity of COVID, perhaps googled, but also shows a complete lack of understanding of the disease process. It sounds akin to the statements I made as a pre-med undergraduate student. I. e. Statement about CO2 retention and cloth masks and HIV lifestyle recommendation.

I'm not sure where you got the information that young people being sick is an anomaly but that is hardly the case anymore. I suppose that may depend on your definition of young but for the purpose of this board, I don't think discussing young 20-39 year olds has much relevance. The average age in my completely full 24 bed ICU unit just dropped to under 55. The regular medical wards have seen a spike in 40 something year olds requiring less invasive respiratory therapies.

We are getting better at treating this thing so in combination with the average younger age of those infected, death rates will decline but pulmonary alveolar damage in your 30's and 40's and myocardial cell death is irreversible. Survivors will live with compromised heart function in addition to lung damage. Quality of life and life expectancy will decline. Your young people thesis does a public health disservice.

That is not true sir, COVID-19 affecting young or healthy people is an anomaly and it could just be they were not as healthy as they thought. Also, Any virus or disease that attacks ACE2 receptors can cause organ damage to anyone with weak or compromised immune systems or a weak or damaged organ that is not a special feature of COVID-19. Go do some research and you will learn that is true.


Please do research! We need to draw a line in the sand and make our governments aware this will not be tolerated. If not, what is coming in the future will be much worse. The minute we accept quarantining and marshal law as the norm we have already become slaves. Now, if in the future a virus comes along and kills more than 1% of the world population or 78,000,000 people then we can talk about possible quarantines as long as every victim's name is made public for verification. 132,000 people supposedly dead in America but I don't know one and I don't know anybody who knows one.

[The Cane]

Will you move your gains to safer investments? Or risk them getting erased in 2021? Over the past six months, every monger I know has either been relatively unscathed financially or saw their net worth increase. But regarding your point about "uncertainty in the world", I do not know if that luck continues. Like you said once before, the global economy is interconnected, if the economies of EU, USA, or China crash, they bring everyone else down with them.

I have already moved into safer investments, and it's there I intend to remain until I feel comfortable with taking more risk. And what with a pandemic, an economic recession, social strife, and uncertainty around our upcoming election in November, that won't be anytime soon. We could even get hit with a devastating hurricane this year. Who knows? Not to mention what might happen in other countries that could impact the States too. No, I'm not willing to see my 2020 gains wiped out, and I will proceed with maximum caution to ensure that does not happen. And don't forget that the other shoe hasn't fallen yet with respect to the American economy. What I mean is that the government can't keep spending trillions to prop everything up. That's unsustainable.

And when the spending stops, then comes the defaults, the bankruptcies, the evictions, and failed businesses. We have yet to go through that pain yet, and believe me that in the United States it's eventually going to come. Combine all that with an expected strong return of the virus when the winter season arrives, and I don't have faith that from now into early 2021 is going to be a pretty sight to behold. Right now, I'm a "financial bear" looking for the right time to come out of hibernation and invest in reasonably riskier assets again that offer a real prospect for greater returns. One thing that could turn the tide is if a safe and effective vaccine becomes available. We shall see. In the meantime, I'm on the sidelines and out of the riskier stuff!

[Mursenary]

Death rate high does not mean bad health care. Most of these countries have high life expectancy. There are within top 30 and better than US. So more old people more death and that messes up the overall ratio.

It was more of a tongue in cheek retort to another post.

But anyway, Life expectancy factors in traumatic death such as motor vehicle accidents and violence. America has arguably the largest car culture and we all know about the gun culture, our traumatic deaths are much higher, bring down the average. Unfortunately, so is suicide.

COVID deaths on the other hand shows a more direct snapshot of acute to advanced emergent medical care. And in this case, US death rates are consistently better than the western European counterparts despite the high rate of comorbidities. The prevalence of the comorbidities is perhaps why our healthcare providers are doing a better job in this crisis. Public health policy is a whole other matter in which the US has failed miserably.

[JohnReter335]

A large percentage of the 1500 infected meat plant workers in NRW were Romanian. Also many Romanian migrant workers are seasonal farm workers. This video shows four of them sleeping in a tiny container: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-meat-i...ons/a-54033187.

This is sad but the video is not opening.