Medellin Reports

[Coupe66]

I'm not interested in panic. It seems the people who don't understand geometric growth are the ones concerned about panic. I am concerned with preparing for economic fallout, supply shortages of food and medicines, and the maxing out of the healthcare system. These are unavoidable symptoms of too many people getting sick all at the same time. It is already happening in other parts of the world. This isn't just my opinion, its already here.

The panic never happened! The geometric growth didn't happen either, only in the last few weeks are the numbers climbing significantly. Still, no comparison whatsoever to the USA. The supermarkets are still full. Re. the healthcare system, there is pressure on it in some cities like Bogota, but it isn't 'maxed out' at all. Patients are being transferred from departments with high ICU occupancy to other ones where cases and occupancy are low. So basically your whole paragraph was just inflammatory nonsense!

AdventureSeekr, judging by your posts your forum name is ridiculous ! If you ever finally have the guts to return here maybe you should change it, to something like paranoid fearmonger123 or words to that effect !!

[Coupe66]

Just left yesterday. Everything seemed relatively normal, no panic there at all. Coffee shop was full and bustling. In PR, stores have been shopped bare as a comparison. Chicas are definitely aware of it and pretty freaked out about getting it. The few I talk to regularly were telling me to wear gloves and a mask when traveling home. I've heard business is down from both chicas and uber drivers. I think its just at the point where panic will start to arrive there within a week or two.

You wrote this on March 14th, predicting there would be panic in Medellin by mid / late March. Well, it's now July 2nd and there is still no panic! So what happened to your predictions, or were you the one who was actually trying to cause panic?

[Coupe66]

In mid March, some of you (like AdventureSeekr in particular) wrote a lot of inflammatory panic mongering that the Corona virus was coming for us, and that it would soon be as bad in Colombia as in Europe or the States, and we should all leave ASAP!

Well 3.5 months on and Colombia is doing much better than most of the Americas, the number of confirmed cases and deaths are still relatively low and there is just NO COMPARISON whatsoever between the figures of Colombia and the USA! Now there's 2,811,739 cases and 131,182 deaths in the USA. And in Colombia 100,009 and 3470 deaths in Colombia. Even accounting for population, the situation is the US is 6 times as bad as in Colombia! Its terrible yes, but it's the reality. And Colombia has handled the situation 1000 times better than the USA too! So back in March, with reflection, what was the point of leaving if you didn't have to?

Some of you guys come down to Colombia, hang in Poblado, drive around in Ubers, have in-call chicas and don't bother talking to Colombians. That's fine if you want to do that, but don't then lecture people about what's going to happen in Colombia and that we should all leave, if you know nothing about the place !

Some of you don't seem to know anything about Colombia or it's people. They had a lot more respect for the rules as Americans did on the whole, they know how to stick together and have been through harder times than this. The stores remained on the whole full and there were few shortages, unlike the panic induced disaster that hit the USA and other places. Maybe you should ask yourself why that is ?

I stayed in Bucaramanga for 2 months during the quarantine, never felt in any danger whatsoever there ! People were friendly and totally calm, and nobody queried where I was from. Maybe some of you with such little faith in Colombia and it's people to have faced up to the crisis shouldn't bother coming back ?

[Surfer500]

The latest reports are a positive antibody test doesn't necessarily mean you are any safer from the virus than someone who has a negative antibody test result. In fact there are several documented cases of people who have suffered re-infection. By now most have noticed I am not structuring my life around coronavirus theories; that is why I am in Medellin and not on the other side of travel restriction. Once there is a proven safe cure or therapy I will take advantage of them. I can't think of anything. I would do differently based on a test result. By the way the porteros in my building randomly take people's temperature as they exit and enter, more virus theater. The supermarkets were doing it regularly a few weeks ago but no it's a once in a while thing.

In one of my friends buildings, they are taking temperatures of all visitors, but not residents. Are they taking temperature's of residents in your building besides visitors?

And if so, what happens if a resident has a fever, are they denied entry which seems improbable and / or allowed in and then the Portero reports to the Building Administrator?

[Nounce]

As of May 26, there were 131 flu deaths reported for the most recent flu season in the state of Indiana. As of today 2,650 COVID-19 deaths in Indiana.

They don't look at numbers like this. They focus on death rate and ignore the number of deaths.

It is not a static situation. The death rate is quite high initially but it has been decreasing as the doctors learn more about the virus and know how to treat it. For example, we don't hear much about ventilator much anymore. One day they could be right about the number but for the wrong reason.

[ShooBree]

Exactly. Now imagine someone with such sound thoughts on the President Chair and that will clearly explain why in USA and Brazil the situation is out of control, and millions people will have to suffer and die. We are observing a huge social and medical experiment. Too bad it is not a simulation, but real people will die.

People suffer because of the lockdowns. Bolsonaro got it right, the politicians who ordered the lockdowns are guilty of murdering the global economy because of a virus that only had the capacity to kill old, weak and extremely unlucky that probably would have died anyways. This virus is a joke!

But I guess that I should be grateful for the incompetent politicians, without them I wouldn't been able to get a 3000€ discount on the new car that I just leased. Fuck the poor, "it's a rich man's world" as we Swedes used to sing.

[Black Page]

Literally everything you wrote here doesn't make sense and is mathematically incorrect. .

Exactly. Now imagine someone with such sound thoughts on the President Chair and that will clearly explain why in USA and Brazil the situation is out of control, and millions people will have to suffer and die. We are observing a huge social and medical experiment. Too bad it is not a simulation, but real people will die.

[CzarNicholas]

There is still time LOL.

Just please stay away from the hookers, nobody wants to see mongers with hooker babies.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/m...gbr/index.html

[JjBee62]

LOL its hilarious that you keep saying I'm the fear mongering type but you completely lose your shit every time you write anything covid related. You're rant is all over the place and nonsensical. You even contradict yourself. You come off like a total nutcase.

Good luck with that. I'm still waiting for him to pay up on his bet that there was no way the US death toll would break 80,000. He went completely silent on that subject.

This will be long. Most of it will be stuff that I've already covered. Most of the people with enough sense to, as they used to say, "pour pee out of a boot", already are aware of most of this.

Does anyone here know of anyone who has died from a car crash? It doesn't have to be within your immediate circle of friends and family. Anyone that you can think of who died in a car crash? That guy you used to work with, or maybe your girlfriend's cousin? How about suicide? You can probably answer yes to both questions. If you expand it to famous people, then everyone can answer "Yes. ".

How about the flu? Although the numbers all vary by year, estimated flu deaths aren't too far off from actual car accident deaths and suicides. If flu death estimates are anywhere close to being accurate you should have a list of names about the same as for the other 2 causes of death. Is it even close? I just did a quick search for celebrity flu deaths. I knew 2 of the names and can make some sort of connection to 2 others. Looking at similar lists for suicide and car crash victims, I have no trouble finding names which I'm familiar with.

All of that should make you question the estimated?

The reason is, very few people die from the flu. At the beginning of the flu season the CDC collects data from 13 regional hospitals. The data they receive is total number of admissions for flu or pneumonia. That's very important, because pneumonia is much more dangerous than the typical flu. Pneumonia is much more likely to require hospitalization and is much more likely to result in death.

They take the numbers and assume that others were admitted for the flu or pneumonia, but weren't listed. Then they add to the number again by guessing at the number of people who weren't hospitalized. Then they project the number forward to get an estimate of how many will die from the flu or pneumonia, but include all the pneumonia deaths under the flu.

Here's some actual numbers from Monroe county, New York. As of June 2 there were 17 recorded flu deaths in the county since October 1st. That's according to Rochester Regional Health.

https://www.rochesterregional.org/ne...lu-season-2020

As of today there have been 262 reported COVID-19 deaths in the same county.

As of May 26, there were 131 flu deaths reported for the most recent flu season in the state of Indiana. As of today 2,650 COVID-19 deaths in Indiana.

https://www.in.gov/isdh/22104.htm

But that's only a tiny piece of the story. How many times during flu season do you recall all school being cancelled, all sporting events being cancelled, theaters closed, malls closed, bars closed, restaurants closed? Every year? Every other year? Once every 10 years? How about not for the last 100 years?

Guess when flu season starts? Shortly after schools reopen. You stick a few million kids with only partially developed immune systems in classrooms and they start passing the virus around. The kids take it home to their parents, their parents take it to work. It spreads, mutates, spreads again and finally calms down when schools start closing for the summer.

With COVID-19 we shut it all down. We closed all those places where the disease can easily spread and we slowed it down. Some places did better than others. But even with everything we did if you do an apples to apples comparison, we already have 15-20 times the number of deaths over 4 months as over 7 months of the flu. These aren't projections. These aren't estimates. These are actual death certificates signed by a doctor confirming the cause of death.

How much did all the quarantines, closures, social distancing and masks reduce the spread? If it had absolutely no effect, then we're still left with 15-20 times the number of deaths. If it only reduced the spread by 50%? Fortunately, and I mean that sarcastically, we now have the opportunity to find out how effective all those measures were. Keep an eye on the number of daily deaths in the US over the next 2 weeks. If they climb past 5,000 you'll have an answer. It won't be one you like.

I'm not much of a doom and gloom guy. My philosophy is hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Maybe someone will wave a magic wand and it will all go away. But, until that happens, I'm going to keep myself as safe as possible.

One last bit. It's the "what if you're wrong" question. If I'm wrong, I've been wearing a mask and washing my hands for no reason. Neither soap not masks are that expensive and my work will happily provide me with hand sanitizer, masks and gloves.

But if all the "it's all media hype", or "it's a liberal conspiracy" folks are wrong, you just made it worse by convincing others not to protect themselves and others. Wear a mask. Stay at home. You can still whine and complain just as easily from your couch and it saves you the embarrassment of trying to delete all your posts from ICU.

[Knowledge]

The latest reports are a positive antibody test doesn't necessarily mean you are any safer from the virus than someone who has a negative antibody test result. In fact there are several documented cases of people who have suffered re-infection. By now most have noticed I am not structuring my life around coronavirus theories; that is why I am in Medellin and not on the other side of travel restriction. Once there is a proven safe cure or therapy I will take advantage of them. I can't think of anything. I would do differently based on a test result. By the way the porteros in my building randomly take people's temperature as they exit and enter, more virus theater. The supermarkets were doing it regularly a few weeks ago but no it's a once in a while thing.

If available in Medellin, you might want to get an antibody test to conform whether you had it. And if so, you might, and I say might have some protection from being re-infected, which may in turn alter your behavior. The tests are readily available in the USA, but I don't know about in Medellin. Something to think about in the event your cruising around ground zero, see something of interest, and are sitting on the fence whether to pull the trigger!

[Knowledge]

Go get 'them cowboy! LOL! But seriously, this is Mayor Quintero following Claudia Lopez's lead. It's purely political. Any of us who have been to Centro know how packed the streets are. What does banning liquor sales for two days a week and locking people inside overnight on holiday weekends going to change? The answer it will change the Mayor's public image if things get really bad because he will be able to start doing what Claudia Lopez does. Blame President Duque for anything and everything that goes wrong. They are both after his job.

https://www.mibuenosairesmedellin.co...nnhP-DinQBsoIU

"Medellin will have a dry law every weekend and curfew on all bank holidays".

UPDATE:

"Slapshot's penthouse will not recognize said law. Giddy up!

[SlapShot10]

https://www.mibuenosairesmedellin.co...nnhP-DinQBsoIU

"Medellin will have a dry law every weekend and curfew on all bank holidays".

UPDATE:

"Slapshot's penthouse will not recognize said law. Giddy up!

[Knowledge]

You are right but these discussions never end well. The law is well known and has been restated several times in this latest thread. We should move on.

I doubt that most of them have a fake cedula, at least not the ones I've seen who look way too young. They simply don't care and anyone who would pick one of them probably isn't going to ask to see a cedula.

[Paulie97]

DJT was not up for reelection, that's why no media attention.

El Mechanico.

It's all a worldwide conspiracy to harm Trump's re-election prospects. Is amazing how we've gotten every corner of the globe, ever contagious disease physician on the planet to cooperate. And all these CEOs that have seen their companies decimated by the effects of this mass conspiracy sit idly by without complaint. Mind boggling, isn't it? It's amazing these sorts of arguments have any legs, but then again Coast to Coast AM and Alex Jones have audiences.

And this illness in only four months has over double the deaths to it's credit as a worse case scenario US flu season that lasts seven to eight months. Add to that the fact that 40,000+ new cases are showing up in the states each day into the heat of the summer with no let up in sight and sounds like we have something a lot more serious than the flu. Plus the fact that evidence points to certain serious long term effects found with Covid that aren't with the flu and it's clear that we have something on our hands worth taking seriously.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...health-effects

[Surfer500]

I think it's a wash unless anybody duct tapes themselves inside their house. I suppose it's easier to avoid crossing paths with other people in rural areas. I have to be honest, whenever the pollution spikes up (most recently when the Sahara sand covered the city) and I have respiratory problems, it give me pause. Full disclosure, I'm pretty sure I had coronavirus last January when I was in the US for Christmas holidays. It wasn't in the news yet so I didn't associate it with what everybody now knows. At the time I thought it was bad luck because I hadn't had the flu in something like four years. It lasted a good three weeks or so and they symptoms were body aches and severe respiratory distress of the flu variety. I did not quarantine but I did go to bed much earlier than I normally do.

If available in Medellin, you might want to get an antibody test to conform whether you had it. And if so, you might, and I say might have some protection from being re-infected, which may in turn alter your behavior. The tests are readily available in the USA, but I don't know about in Medellin. Something to think about in the event your cruising around ground zero, see something of interest, and are sitting on the fence whether to pull the trigger!