General Info

[Oakie]

I'm a health science statistician and I can tell you you're talking up your ass.

Actuaries help predict overall and generalized data. You're trying to apply COVID-19 as an actuary? How about using trajectory statistics and the R rate (number of people that 1 COVID-19 person will infect). Your data is quite honestly, laughable.

I'm not even going to point at what is factually incorrect with your post regarding this virus. None of it is right.

The common flu's death rate normalized through age groups is. 01%, whereas the coronavirus is estimated to be around 1%-2%, which is 10 x to 20 x more than the flu.

The flu's incubation period where you can infect other people is on average 4 days. Coronavirus is 14 days, and can be as high as 20+ days.

We have vaccines against the common strains of the flu. None exists today with coronavirus.

Without all the measures most of the world has done, you can bet your ass that the infection number would have been MUCH higher.

Relax!

Bad.

There's the situation as it stands in real time, for which I provided current available information, then there are projections.

Projections, are estimates, your "trajectory statistics and the are rate (number of people that 1 COVID-19 person will infect", are based on dynamic modeling involving a whole host of factors, including past pandemic histories, demographics, available treatments, mitigation, development of anti-viral treatments, and ultimately, a vaccine.

The worlds best scientists are presently developing and adjusting these "trajectory" models, as real data is collected. Projecting that future is way beyond my pay scale.

As I said, nobody presently knows how bad this could be. There are lots of wild guesses, out there, ranging from Trumps 15, or so, to the New York Times, 1,700,00 - 2,000,000, LOL.

But I can say this pandemic will follow past pandemics on the standard Bell Curve, a rise, a peak, and decline.

In the meantime everybody must do what they can to attempt to minimize the potential height of the peak.

[Tempoecorto]

I'm stuck in pussy prison (USA). Thought I would share a couple of youtube channels that have some informative info on this virus stuff. https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos and https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos Stay safe everyone!

I checked the first one and thought it was an excellent video in its sophistication and simplicity. I presume you might be a Med student or in the field. Thanks.

[Newb20]

I'm stuck in pussy prison (USA). Thought I would share a couple of youtube channels that have some informative info on this virus stuff. https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos and https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos Stay safe everyone!

[AZN Monger]

[Deleted by Admin]

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[Tempoecorto]

Still a lot of hype out there.

Hype is what makes the world go around and gives the eyeballs to the media business and similar.

By the way, your math skills were formidable, speaking of the risk evaluation. So I agree but a bit of stoicism works for me.

[SubCmdr]

1284 Confirmed cases.

57 Dead from COVID-19.

9 Survivors.

Watched the report from the Minsterio de Salud Publica live broadcast. But here it is in english for our off island language challenged posters.

https://dominicantoday.com/dr/local/...ted-9-survive/

Do we have anyone posting here from a "boots on the ground" perspective right here in Republica Dominicana right now?

Because I'm trying to figure out why I am reading about statistics on influenza posted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention which just so happens to be a United States Federal Agency. I don't see any of those mother fuckers here in Republica Dominicana. And trust me I've been out and about for essential supplies and I haven't seen anyone that has a CDC hat or vest on. If you have then my apologies in advance.

What perspective are you giving to the 57 people who have died here? Or the loved ones of the people who died? The idea that there are an acceptable amount of losses in a peacetime situation in my opinion can only be held by a psychopath. But that is my opinion. US Navy Captain is trying to save his crew from dying right now. Probably will cost him his career. But he is not taking a "no big deal" attitude with his crew.

Do we have anyone posting here that is not a layman when it comes to infectious disease (a person without professional or specialized knowledge in a particular subject)? Everyone on here should be an expert in insertion. So let us insert some facts into the discussion. Shall we?

The number quoted by another individual posting here leaves a few things out. Reference is made to my screen shot of the actual information posted on the CDC web site. Right below that information are two additional paragraphs that the poster fails to include:

"*Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the USA, CDC provides these estimated ranges (24,000 - 62,000 deaths) to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC's*weekly influenza surveillance data*and are preliminary.

**Influenza testing across the United States may be higher than normal at this time of year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. These*estimates may partly reflect increases in testing in recent weeks and may be adjusted downward once the season is complete and final data for the 2019/20 season are available."

Oh shit, facts! Run! Take cover! Cause the rain is going to start on your parade.

Take the lower end of the range of flu deaths and you take the current projected low end of the COVID-19 death rate in the United States of America you have have twice as many COVID-19 deaths as flu deaths. If you take the high end of the current projected low end of the COVID-19 death rate in the United States of America you have over three times as many COVID-19 deaths as flu deaths. I ask again, what kind of perspective are individuals comparing COVID-19 the flu trying to give?

You want some more facts in your eye hole?

36,560 people died in automobile related accidents in the USA in 2018. Automobile deaths over one year!

https://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx

58,220 USA Military fatal casualties of the Vietnam War. Military fatal casualties over what time period (10 years)?

https://www.archives.gov/research/mi...lty-statistics

COVID-19 is like the Flu? GTF!

"A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the*coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans*and cause mild illness, like the common cold.

A diagnosis with coronavirus 229 E, NL63, OC43, or HKU1 is not the same as a COVID-19 diagnosis. Patients with COVID-19 will be evaluated and cared for differently than patients with common coronavirus diagnosis."

Last thing I did before I left the US last year for the Dominican Republic was get a flu shot. I walked into a CVS close to the airport I was leaving from and asked for a shot and got it. They must have forgotten to tell me about the novel coronavirus shot that I could have taken. Maybe that's because they didn't have one to give me. Fact!

Since so many seem to be fond of what the CDC has to say but don't seem actually take the time to read the mother fucking site here is the Flu Prevention protocols in a screen shot below: Don't hold your breath people, it starts with getting a flu shot.

Is this virus comparable to SARS or to the seasonal flu?

"While the viruses that cause both COVID-19 and seasonal influenza are transmitted from person-to-person and may cause similar symptoms, the two viruses*are very different and*do not behave in the same way.

ECDC estimates that between 15 000 and 75 000 people die prematurely due to causes associated with seasonal influenza infection each year in the EU, the UK, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This is approximately 1 in every 1 000 people who are infected. Despite the relatively low mortality rate for seasonal influenza, many people die from the disease due to the large number of people who contract it each year. The concern about COVID-19 is that, unlike influenza, there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for the disease. It also appears to be more transmissible than seasonal influenza. As it is a new virus, nobody has prior immunity, which means that the entire human population is potentially susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection."

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-...stions-answers

"No vaccine and no specific treatment for the disease. It also appears to be more transmissible than seasonal influenza. As it is a new virus, nobody has prior immunity."

Shit, Shit, Shit! More facts!

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence. " - John Adams.

We seen to have many more posters living like locals when it comes to posting about good times and taking shit about other posters in the Dominican Republic Forum. I've noticed those voices have fallen silent. I don't know what they say in the USA. What are they saying in the USA about a projected 100,000 - 200,000 people dying? Glass half full? Acceptable number of losses? No big deal, lots of people have / will recover. Rich and famous are getting tested but I'm a ICU nurse caring everyday for COVID-19 patients, why can't I? If you are off island and wish to inform me of what your fellow Americans are saying about that, please feel free to do so. But remember this is the General Information for Republica Dominicana. So, you will be a little off topic. No actually you will be way off topic. And pretty much (how do they say it in USA)? Par for the course, I believe. But that's not my business.

Cause, I'm boots on the ground in Republica Domincana. Sheltering in place, but still a straight man in the arena! Continuing to post against the odds until COVID-19 gets me! Let me suggest the following for motivation:

"Hard times in life. Hard times in death. I'm going to keep on fighting til my very last breath". - RUN DMC.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=...Oj4vADQ&q=hard+times+RUN+DMC+.

Buenas Noches (Good night)!

"Everybody in entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts" - Daniel Patrick Moyinhan.

[Oakie]

I think that is the right attitude. Just to keep things in perspective, perhaps about 60000 people died of Flu this season only IN THE US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

That said, while the flu kills about 0.1%, this new strain (COVID) may have a much higher kill rate, around 2-4% given the present status (but will likely come down when all numbers become known. So by all means, be careful, take preventive measures but just do not get paranoid. After all, we all are going to die one way or the other.

Still a lot of hype out there.

In a former life I handled statistics and produced graphs for an insurance provider. Actuarial stuff.

Media hype is often misleading. When a cop or a fireman dies hundreds or even thousands of mourners show up along with the Media. But those professions don't even make the top 10 most dangerous jobs. In construction, logging farming and fishing, they die like flies, but get no public attention.

Perhaps this will help.

DR has a population of 10,000. 000.

1,000 confirmed cases.

Your chance of catching the disease are 1 in 10,000, or 0. 010%.

Of those catching the disease LiveScience has this:

"A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84,1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54.

For a person between 20 and 64 - a 2% mortality rate.

So 2% of the 0. 10% die.

That's 0. 000002% for an otherwise healthy DR monger?

Nothing to sneeze at, but still not as bad as the hype!

(DR Traffic fatalities 0.03%, 3,000 per year. Regular flu 2,400, HIV 3,200, Violence 3,100).

Will the present COVID-19 death toll (51 so far) exceed those numbers?

Nobody knows, but what we do know is that like all pandemics it will run out of steam at some point and the numbers will plummet!

Take all precautions, especially when trying to cross the street to the Playera, and if you must get laid, choose your bed mates wisely.

[Tempoecorto]

I was just trying to raise hope to anyone who might get it.

I think that is the right attitude. Just to keep things in perspective, perhaps about 60000 people died of Flu this season only IN THE US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

That said, while the flu kills about 0.1%, this new strain (COVID) may have a much higher kill rate, around 2-4% given the present status (but will likely come down when all numbers become known. So by all means, be careful, take preventive measures but just do not get paranoid. After all, we all are going to die one way or the other.

[Rebel Monger]

People in Italy are dropping like flies. So your guy who infected 400 people and no one died is a nice story but people all over the world are dying. 38000 and climbing so I think we need to take it seriously. Sadly this is just the tip of the iceberg. 1000s more are going to die and there is nothing we can do but watch.

I was just trying to raise hope to anyone who might get it. I know Italy as of now has 105,792 confirmed cases, 12,428 deceased and 15,729 recovered (https://ncov2019.live/), if you want to go with the "glass half full" attitude that's up to you, I will never tell anyone to give up no matter how down they might be.

For anyone who think I'm not feeling any sympathy for those dying, well, you know how they say here in USA, ah and have a good night!

[SubCmdr]

When you don't take into account the human effect, the human suffering, when you are saying it's no big deal, well that's when people take issue with you. A survivor mentality is important in any endeavour. But just because I have a bullet proof vest on does not mean I want to get shot. Show respect for the human loss that is involved with this pandemic and you will take a lot less flack.

Let's address underlying health conditions, I have diabetes and hypertension both of which have been shown to be pre existing conditions that will make it more likely to die from COVID-19. Doesn't mean that I've got one foot in the grave right now. Actually sounds like someone is arguing survival of the fittest. Personally, I don't want to hear that shit! Didn't we have world leader who believed that only certain people should be allowed to live. Created a few problems in the world back then as I have read.

In the middle of a pandemic can't even the hardest of the hard find compassion?

[Rebel Monger]

Like OK said, nice story. But we have no control over whether we recover or not. That is between our immune system and the virus. You think the 38,000 mfs that are dead from it right now did not want to recover? If you would have seen the same video explaining how the virus attacks your lungs that I saw, you would not be so nonchalant about it. The shit is fucked up.

I just wanted to tell people to go with the I can attitude, it might help. It is said that most of those who has died had health problems already, covid-19 was just the last stroke.

I'm sorry but I don't watch those kind of videos, that won't help me, what you focus your mind on, that's what you attract into your life, or at least, that's my experience.

I wasn't minimizing the issue, just trying to lift people's spirit and hope up, but it seems that I was wrong, I should have said: you got the virus!? Boy, you're gonna to die!.

[SubCmdr]

But we have no control over whether we recover or not. That is between our immune system and the virus. You think the 38,000 mfs that are dead from it right now did not want to recover? If you would have seen the same video explaining how the virus attacks your lungs that I saw, you would not be so nonchalant about it.

Got to give my fellow man in the arena two thumbs up on this one. One of the few off islanders actually throwing up some decent stuff. Do I agree with everything he says? Ah, hell nah! I was wondering when the off island COVID-19 deniers would jump in their (note English usage) theories. Those who don't think it's a big deal should be volunteering for experiments where scientists can infect you so that you receive COVID-19 under laboratory conditions so they can study the effects on your body in real time. It's no big deal. Right?

Still looking for reports from others actually living on the island like a local. I am sheltered in place. I'm your boots on the ground man in the arena. No matter who likes it or not.

[Mr Enternational]

Guys, just take the normal precautions out there but if you (we) catch it, it's not a dead sentence, we can recover!

Like OK said, nice story. But we have no control over whether we recover or not. That is between our immune system and the virus. You think the 38,000 mfs that are dead from it right now did not want to recover? If you would have seen the same video explaining how the virus attacks your lungs that I saw, you would not be so nonchalant about it. The shit is fucked up.

[OldKool]

People in Italy are dropping like flies. So your guy who infected 400 people and no one died is a nice story but people all over the world are dying. 38000 and climbing so I think we need to take it seriously. Sadly this is just the tip of the iceberg. 1000s more are going to die and there is nothing we can do but watch.

In another forum there's a guy who came back from Thailand in November with all the symptoms, he thought it was a bad cold and didn't go to see a doctor. He passed on to some of his children (grandchildren included), his employees and customers, in all around 400 people, the only one who went to the doctor was his 86 years old mother, because the virus wasn't know yet, she was sent back home. As she wasn't getting well and the virus had already been known, she went back to the hospital and was tested, it was covid-19. She recovered and is back home already.

The virus could be deadly but somehow, around 400 people got it, fought it off without going to the doctor and nobody died!

Guys, just take the normal precautions out there but if you (we) catch it, it's not a dead sentence, we can recover!

[Rebel Monger]

One of my long term girls works in a hospital in San fran. She claims 26 deaths at her hospital ad the hospital is full of virus patients only. If these numbers are correct we are being lied to about how deadly it is.

In another forum there's a guy who came back from Thailand in November with all the symptoms, he thought it was a bad cold and didn't go to see a doctor. He passed on to some of his children (grandchildren included), his employees and customers, in all around 400 people, the only one who went to the doctor was his 86 years old mother, because the virus wasn't know yet, she was sent back home. As she wasn't getting well and the virus had already been known, she went back to the hospital and was tested, it was covid-19. She recovered and is back home already.

The virus could be deadly but somehow, around 400 people got it, fought it off without going to the doctor and nobody died!

Guys, just take the normal precautions out there but if you (we) catch it, it's not a dead sentence, we can recover!