General Info

[Moliere]

Absolutely right. And if the advice of Otto and the German central banker are not enough to convince you, think of this...

When the Ukraine banking system crashes -- and you are holding dollars outside the country -- think of how powerful and valuable those dollars will be.

[Reiner Otto]

OK, guys, after your economical reports, what do you think about Euro cash deposited in Ukrainian banks?

Is that money in danger?

I would never ever dare it this period of time. The interest rates they are offering are very seductive, but we in Germany had the best President of our Central bank saying:
" I would offer you any percentage as interest rate, which you want. In case, I do not need to pay back your money ..."
I see many banks at risk here in UA; better buy some cheap US or JP stocks :-)

[Street Sleuth]

The problem with trying to haggle with these people is that they cannot see past their NOSE. They will let a place sit empty asking for top $$ (and lose) instead of taking what is available NOW at a decent price. Same as TAXI drivers. They will sit for 3 hours to get that 1 ex-pat to give 100 uah for a ride that is 50. When they could of gotten 5 rides in that same time!

DUROCKs!

Exactly. Which is why, for us foreign types seeking to gain from the financial downturn in Ukraine, it will take some time - prices will remain lofty for at least 3 months, probably more like 6, before it sinks in that the current prices aren't sustainable (referring mainly to prices of: taxis, apartments, restaurants, girls.....).

As with the apartment rental/taxi conundrum you mention, there is the more pertinent RP pricing conundrum - girls will continue to deman what were unreasonable/unsustainable prices for months to come - only when they are on the verge of starvation will they finally cut their rates. In the meantime, they are perfectly content going home empty handed, night after night after night, with never a thought as to, "gee, I wonder why I can't get any more clients anymore"

[AColonizer]

OK, guys, after your economical reports, what do you think about Euro cash deposited in Ukrainian banks?

Is that money in danger?

[Cruiser D]

Of course people want to live in the 'big city' to make it big. Rather an age old adage. Everyone flocked to Kyiv from Shitholia and it drove Left Bank prices up. Business people started coming to Kyiv in numbers and it drove rental prices for the western places. I'll be happy to start renting a one bedroom western place in the center for 1k again.

Life, not too many Ukrainian banks are owned by Ukrainians anymore - go figure. They saw what was coming and unloaded them on mostly Euro banks who were more then happy to buy them up during the 'buy buy buy expand over extend' era.

Umm, look around Kyiv at the sheer number of 22 to 28 year olds riding transport. Huge numbers. They are here working OR now trying to find NEW work! Not only business people.

If the bank thing was calculated, they are way smarter than I give them credit for. Certainly the UA economy has been tied to the USD. But now look at the rate for EURO's. 808 today!

[Reiner Otto]

Otto,

I'm a little confused by the abbreviations. I know that the group that controls the banks is the IWF. The International Wildlife Foundation. That's why it's called a bear market.

But what is the SPb?

Moliere

SPb: St. Petersburg, Russia. I lived there between 1998 and 2003, although not permanently, because still having a good job in Germany :-)

[Moliere]

You understand this and I understand this!

But do you understand Russian mentality?

I have a similar problem to you, but as a young man said to me nearly 4 years ago " you may one day speak perfect Russian but you will never understand Russian mentality.

Sevastopol,

Maybe you and I met the same young man four years ago! But I told him that I am rather stupid and always like to win an argument and have the last word. So I pointed out that although he speaks some English, he will never understand the American mentality.

Moliere

[Moliere]

from abroad could compensate or help to recover, at least in SPb.

But not this time, because even the West is economically damaged.
Banks will crash in UA soon, because in deep debt, and most likely undefinanced according to rules of IWF.

Otto,

I'm a little confused by the abbreviations. I know that the group that controls the banks is the IWF. The International Wildlife Foundation. That's why it's called a bear market.

But what is the SPb?

Moliere

[Reiner Otto]

Crash in real estate market here in the province (Nikolaev) already started. I see quite a few ads already on Sovyetskaya, the central walking area, that business property in 1a-location is for sale or rent. Real estate agency in center is "For rent" now :-)
Expecting such a crash already for a year now, simply based upon the unreal prices, now I am afraid, it might become even worse than 1998. Cause at that time, some business/capital inflow from abroad could compensate or help to recover, at least in SPb.
But not this time, because even the West is economically damaged.
Banks will crash in UA soon, because in deep debt, and most likely undefinanced according to rules of IWF. This will result in no new credit from them.
And no new credit from private Western Banks either.
Shrinking economy AND the necessity to pay back some expensive US$-credits will increase private credit defaults, putting even more stress on the UA-banks.
From a bank guy I just heared, credit for cars up to 25% interest rate, for real estate 30% in UHA. So new business simply comes to screaming stop.

For simple people, only the fact, that actually the possibilitity to force a sale of private property because of credit default is very difficult, will help for some time. Until laws are changed ....
When already now officially a reduction in real estate prices of about 25% for next year is expected, for my opinion this is standard political optimism.

[Gergiev]

I don't know why anyone reading this board is surprised. I called it two years ago. :P

The real estate market was just responding to conditions and everyones (locals) bizarre (well I understand) desire to live in Kyiv. And the fact that only business people and sexpats come to Kyiv who are willing to pay out the nose.

The banking thing was a calculated set up started about 2-3 years.

Ukraine still holds the recorded for highest inflation. Let's see if they can break that this year.

I'm inclined to agree with you on this one, Cruiser.

You've been laying down a marker about the unsustainability of the prevailing economic situation in Kiev/Ukraine for some time now.

Things are going to be very interesting from here on in...

[Sevastopol1]

You understand this and I understand this!
But do you understand Russian mentality????????????????????
I have a similar prob to you, but as a young man said to me nearly 4 years ago " you may one day speak perfect Russian but you will never understand Russian mentality. Sorry for much bad English but it is Saturday night in Sevastopol!

It amazes locals at how many locations in Kyiv I have lived since 2003. Zhukova, Heroes Cosmos, Heroes Stalingrada, Druzhba Narodiv & moved to Druzhba Narodiv, Poznaky, Vittuchina, prospect Myra & now Urlovskaya!

My partying and GIRLS get me thrown out regularly.

So I have an eye to the rental market (why the F didn't I buy in 2000, or 2003), it was funny to see owners redo their rental ads from USD into quoting Grivna when it plunged into the lower mid 400s.

This weekend I will have a 'pow wow' with my owner about a different RATE. He wants USD, OK. I was paying around 500 per usd to the tune of $1000 usd a month. Last month when it went to 720 it killed me!

The problem with trying to haggle with these people is that they cannot see past their NOSE. They will let a place sit empty asking for top $$ (and lose) instead of taking what is available NOW at a decent price. Same as TAXI drivers. They will sit for 3 hours to get that 1 ex-pat to give 100 uah for a ride that is 50. When they could of gotten 5 rides in that same time!

DUROCKs!

[AColonizer]

Yes, Lifesavour, that' true! Also add, girls have no respect for foreigners. Sillyness and arrogance. This is the reason for what I suggest not to waste money and not to be a gentleman in Kiev.

[LifeSavour]

I don't know why anyone reading this board is surprised. I called it two years ago. :P

The real estate market was just responding to conditions and everyones (locals) bizarre (well I understand) desire to live in Kyiv. And the fact that only business people and sexpats come to Kyiv who are willing to pay out the nose.

The banking thing was a calculated set up started about 2-3 years.

Ukraine still holds the recorded for highest inflation. Let's see if they can break that this year.

Called what? The real estate market? Bizarre. Hmmm, why did Kyiv grow from 2. 5 to almost 5 million? Simple! WAGES & SALARIES! Nothing Bizarre about that. Why does a taxi guy drive in NYC and not some suburb?

Umm, look around Kyiv at the sheer number of 22 to 28 year olds riding transport. Huge numbers. They are here working OR now trying to find NEW work! Not only business people.

If the bank thing was calculated, they are way smarter than I give them credit for. Certainly the UA economy has been tied to the USD. But now look at the rate for EURO's. 808 today!

[LifeSavour]

It amazes locals at how many locations in Kyiv I have lived since 2003. Zhukova, Heroes Cosmos, Heroes Stalingrada, Druzhba Narodiv & moved to Druzhba Narodiv, Poznaky, Vittuchina, prospect Myra & now Urlovskaya!

My partying and GIRLS get me thrown out regularly.

So I have an eye to the rental market (why the F didn't I buy in 2000, or 2003), it was funny to see owners redo their rental ads from USD into quoting Grivna when it plunged into the lower mid 400s.

This weekend I will have a 'pow wow' with my owner about a different RATE. He wants USD, OK. I was paying around 500 per usd to the tune of $1000 usd a month. Last month when it went to 720 it killed me!

The problem with trying to haggle with these people is that they cannot see past their NOSE. They will let a place sit empty asking for top $$ (and lose) instead of taking what is available NOW at a decent price. Same as TAXI drivers. They will sit for 3 hours to get that 1 ex-pat to give 100 uah for a ride that is 50. When they could of gotten 5 rides in that same time!

DUROCKs!

[Cruiser D]

I don't know why anyone reading this board is surprised. I called it two years ago. :P

The real estate market was just responding to conditions and everyones (locals) bizarre (well I understand) desire to live in Kyiv. And the fact that only business people and sexpats come to Kyiv who are willing to pay out the nose.

The banking thing was a calculated set up started about 2-3 years.

Ukraine still holds the recorded for highest inflation. Let's see if they can break that this year.