General Info

[Moliere]

MARRIAGE FOR A KIND : Woman & Man (stop relations) but remain in the same flat... they can not come up with the $ to buy the other out!

FICTITIOUS : Is also popular concerning neighboring countries, a man wants residency for work so he wants to marry a local!

MARRIAGE FOR A KIND : Well, this explanation made sense for only about 30 seconds....If two people are stuck with each other in the same flat, it may be MARRIAGE FOR A KIND, but that does not explain why anyone would advertise that as a the goal of meeting on a web site. It's not a goal -- just an unfortunate by-product of a different situation.

FICTITIOUS : And how does this work? The guy, lets say from Belarus or Moldova, wants residency in Ukraine and so he pays money to the woman to marry him without sex?

[Pluto2]

My favorite end of civilization movie is the Charelton Heston version called Omega Man. It reminds me of my neighborhood with the FEDs ramming scum bags into the suburbs so they can learn how to behave like their neighbors. Too bad the transplants aren't with the program.

If your thinking deep downside, its ten acres (5 hectors) in the country, three years of canned/dry food, a wood burning stove a variety of firearms and lots of ammo. You also need backup generator and a hand pump for the well when the LPG or LNG runs out. Depressions and the end of civilization don't mean much in the country side, they do mean a lot in the cities.

Recognizable silver coins are better than gold since the denominations are smaller for day to day stuff.

Rednecks hugging their guns and bibles will always be the survivors in a total meltdown.

Eventually, the owners of the empty buildings run out of money and the prices collapse. There are plenty of similarly empty buildings in the USA waiting to go to auction at some point.

2000 was the start of the real estate bubble in the US, probably the same in the Ukraine, so this is the target level. It may go 10-20% lower to clear the market.

Net equity loss in the US is $11T

2MM foreclosures in the pipeline, with more to follow.

[LifeSavour]

I'll confess that this explanation made sense for a minute.....

MARRIAGE FOR A KIND : Woman & Man (stop relations) but remain in the same flat... they can not come up with the $ to buy the other out!

FICTICOUS : Is also popular concerning neighboring countries, a man wants residency for work so he wants to marry a local!

[Moliere]

They mean exactly the same thing. This fictious marriage form is something meant for locals.

Primarily, it is tied into the residency permit.

Provincials get into such marriages in order to gain Kiev residency (or other major city residence) in order to obtain the notorious "propiska" for their internal passport.

While the "propiksa" has been legally terminated in Ukraine, it is still asked for and used by many bureaucrats and officials. With the "propiksa, they can live permanently in Kiev and get benefits legally and with only the usual hassles. Without it, it becomes very difficult for provincials in the city.

I'll confess that this explanation made sense for a minute and then left me totally confused. All of these women are already living in Kiev! They list themselves on singles.ru or loveplanet.ua as living in Kiev and they meet me for coffee (or stand me up at times). And friends tell me that they never bother trying to register in Kiev because - as you say, no one seems to care about propiska anymore.

I thought "fictitious marriage" was directed at Westerners : the girl wants to live in US or Western Europe and so she wants a guy to marry her in Ukraine with both parties knowing and agreeing that they will divorce once she gets settled in the target country.

[Bez Bezarra]

IMHO 7% Ukraine means:

*that new grads move home or share a house with a bunch of other young people while they look for a job or go for a masters. They put off buying the car or motorcycle and take the bus.

*If your factory lays you off, you may be out for a year or two. The kids get new socks for Christmas. Mom takes a job at the fast food joint or dad drives a cab off the books.

*The best restaurants are still busy, the good ones are slow and the weak ones dieing, the burger dives keep on trucking with $1 burgers. Pretty much the same in all types of retail, instead of a Benz maybe a Toyota or just some new tires and a tune up.

*People eat into their savings a bit if their income is off for entrepreneurs etc. A few fold the living ones get stronger with less competition.

Apparently the UPD are running stings on street walkers and sending letters to their parents to get them to retire. This is probably the biggest limiting factor on domestic supply at this point.

Ten years ago their was a criminal problem in Turkey etc.. and the Balkans, I don't know if this is really still a problem as all articles on the subject are at least ten years old. I'm guessing that the girls got smarter and just go to Germany or Czech instead.

In short, I don't think 7% is at the eating tree bark level that say 15 to 20% will bring about. If it hits this level you will see 60 YO street walkers charging $10-20 to buy food and the other unemployed people paying it. You will also see 10's at about $50, guess.

What does it mean in the US?

The Republican President abandons 500 years of market capitalism and moves towards socialism with bailouts for the owners of the Wall Street Firms who should have been zeroed out but are still getting dividends instead. etc etc etc

The FED makes 2 Trillion in secret loans to god knows who.

Bankrupt banks are allowed to stay open while they pretend to be solvent and continue to pay bonuses and dividends.

The Govt moves to a 1 T deficit for 2009

The UAW will get a 150B bail out in exchange for 150M in contributions to Obama and the Democrat party. Great return on pay to play.

Homeowners get massive tax hikes for local govt to give themselves their usual 5-7% pay raises, and refresh the losses in their pension plans, and continuing to use contractors that bill $200 Hr for union trades. Also contributors, pay to play.

The FEDS turn on the printing presses and begin to eliminate whats left of the value of the dollar; already down from 1975 gold @ $35 oz to $830 oz today a 95% debasing of the currency in 33 years with fiat money. Oil and real estate are about the same story as gold.

You really left out the MOST interesting part, which is, when and where does it hit bottom? When and where does it end??

Because many say this is still only the beginning. That all these factors and strange moves and actions are merely signs that this is the beginning of the end. All the warnings that these signs are indications of a much bigger, much darker, more evil, result to come.

Where is al Qaida in all of this? Where are the dirty bombs and bio-terror?
Where are the accidental scientist doomsday scenarios a la "I am Legend" or "12 Monkeys" or "28 Days Later" or all of that shite??

As for what's actually happening on the ground today, out in the provinces I can certainly provide a current assessment.

The new construction that is going on EVERYWHERE has stopped. In my city, just one of the three with popualtion right around 1 million, and therefore all have comparable economics and growth from 2005 until now, the building boom was well on its way when it peaked in 2006 and started its downward spiral. Here, and in all these cities, and to a lesser extent in the 500,000 to 900,000 population cities, and more in Kharkov and Kiev, you will find at least 30 to 50 major new construction projects of 10 to 20 story office or apartment builidings with many projects consisting of 2, 3, and 4 buildings at a time, either already completed, or halfway completed or at some level of completion. Of the 15 or so that are already 100% finished and ready for tenants to move in, they are 90% empty. Prices average around $300,000 for atwo or 3 bed-room apartment, but the ONLY financing available now is at 25 to 35% mortgage rates from the banks.

WHO the hell signs a mortgage for 35%? Mafia? The Mafia is the one offering the mortgages because they own the banks! The real estate glut is mind-boggling in Ukraine. The billions and billions of dollars that poured into the construction companies, all owned and controlled by the handful of oligarchs from FSU countries, all pay hefty tributes to Moscow and Kiev to do "biznis", and that money was skimmed and slushed all the way back to Abu Dhaby and the Emirs of Qatar and Kuwait.

Never fails, if you want to see the truth, one simple rule:

Follow the money. It usually always leads back to the same few places. You can even use your nose, 'cause the smell that reeks of corruption and dishonesty is what built the phony economy, on the backs of communist slave labor in China and the rest of the $1 to $5 per day labor costs in Asia and Africa. When our so called modern world is built on such a shaky foundation as this, its no wonder that its all gonna come crubling down upon us, to bury us under 1000 years of radioactive rubble and death, only to have the cockraoches take over again as the most likely survivors. Just like Charlton heston in Planet of the Apes said, "Damn You, you blew it up!"

In the meantime, the new apartment buildings remain 90% empty, and the price for one hour with a cat-house girl, is still 200 grivnas, everything covered, 10-15 minutes in the bathroom, 10 minutes to smoke her cigarette, 5 minutes on her knees, 10 minutes and her back, and then her phone rings that your one hour is up, (even though at that point its only 40 minutes), so then its back to the bathroom for 15 minutes, and then out the door for the next customer. Zero GFE.

Welcome to the motherland of hard core economic reality.

[Reiner Otto]

How high will it go?

How long will it last?

Since I won't be going back until the summer, should I buy $2000 worth of Grivna now, at the current rate, and stash it until my next trip?

Keep the $ in your pocket. Exchange rate still going up.
Today I have seen about 7.7UHA/$
May be, to change a very few only for the taxi driver from the airport :-)

[Reiner Otto]

7% unemployment in Ukraine means nothing regarding difference to today's situation because since 10 years the unemployment stands at 7%.

That will change soon. I read serious reports, that actually about 7,000 workers loose their jobs today in UA.

[Reiner Otto]

Reiner Otto,

What do you mean "restart the scam-game again" ? You make it sound as though some good scam was stopped for a while and will now restart.

You can't possibly mean that the girls were so disdainful of foreigners that they had even given up trying to scam them.

Moliere

In recent past, local girls here were not so interested in short-term foreign tourists, compared to the times 2 or more years ago. Because they were afraid of spoiling their chances regarding well-off local guys for longer-term relationships. But now the number of well-off locals started to decrease, and so girls will start (again) to milk the foreigners. Even still maintaining their relationship with a local, if any. That I call "scam-game". Because that is still "reasonable" for the local guys (or even partners) to accept.

[Uke Boy]

Yes, the phrases have about the same meaning as far as I can tell. Брак «для вида» and Фиктивный брак.

Any philologists out there who know for sure?

They mean exactly the same thing. This fictious marriage form is something meant for locals.

Primarily, it is tied into the residency permit.

Provincials get into such marriages in order to gain Kiev residency (or other major city residence) in order to obtain the notorious "propiska" for their internal passport.

While the "propiksa" has been legally terminted in Ukraine, it is still asked for and used by many bureaucrats and officials. With the "propiksa, they can live permanently in Kiev and get benefits legally and with only the usual hassles. Without it, it becomes very difficult for provincials in the city.

[Ash1001]

Yes, the phrases have about the same meaning as far as I can tell. Брак «для вида» and Фиктивный брак.

Any philologists out there who know for sure?

The first one is marriage "for appearances", the second fake marriage. I don't think there's too much difference. The point is, the concept is totally different from sponsorship as with fake marriage the Western man is usually trying to EARN money for a visa rather than spend it (on sex).

[Hecker]

7% unemployment in Ukraine means nothing regarding difference to today's situation because since 10 years the unemployment stands at 7%.

What matters are the unemployment rate differences between the regions. (a double sword effect cause they increase immigration as well especially among young, beautiful women).

[LifeSavour]

IMHO 7% Ukraine means:

*that new grads move home or share a house with a bunch of other young people .....

I see about 40 to 60 new young, working '20 somethings' with University fegrees every 10 days... Even the ones working as an "economist" for example (umm, this is not like our term economist) THEY all either live at home OR live with 'neighbors'.

If NOT, then they are in a family flat or something of this nature with lower rent.

[Pluto2]

IMHO 7% Ukraine means:

*that new grads move home or share a house with a bunch of other young people while they look for a job or go for a masters. They put off buying the car or motorcycle and take the bus.

*If your factory lays you off, you may be out for a year or two. The kids get new socks for Christmas. Mom takes a job at the fast food joint or dad drives a cab off the books.

*The best restaurants are still busy, the good ones are slow and the weak ones dieing, the burger dives keep on trucking with $1 burgers. Pretty much the same in all types of retail, instead of a Benz maybe a Toyota or just some new tires and a tune up.

*People eat into their savings a bit if their income is off for entrepreneurs etc. A few fold the living ones get stronger with less competition.

Apparently the UPD are running stings on street walkers and sending letters to their parents to get them to retire. This is probably the biggest limiting factor on domestic supply at this point.

Ten years ago their was a criminal problem in Turkey etc.. and the Balkans, I don't know if this is really still a problem as all articles on the subject are at least ten years old. I'm guessing that the girls got smarter and just go to Germany or Czech instead.

In short, I don't think 7% is at the eating tree bark level that say 15 to 20% will bring about. If it hits this level you will see 60 YO street walkers charging $10-20 to buy food and the other unemployed people paying it. You will also see 10's at about $50, guess.

What does it mean in the US?

The Republican President abandons 500 years of market capitalism and moves towards socialism with bailouts for the owners of the Wall Street Firms who should have been zeroed out but are still getting dividends instead. etc etc etc

The FED makes 2 Trillion in secret loans to god knows who.

Bankrupt banks are allowed to stay open while they pretend to be solvent and continue to pay bonuses and dividends.

The Govt moves to a 1 T deficit for 2009

The UAW will get a 150B bail out in exchange for 150M in contributions to Obama and the Democrat party. Great return on pay to play.

Homeowners get massive tax hikes for local govt to give themselves their usual 5-7% pay raises, and refresh the losses in their pension plans, and continuing to use contractors that bill $200 Hr for union trades. Also contributors, pay to play.

The FEDS turn on the printing presses and begin to eliminate whats left of the value of the dollar; already down from 1975 gold @ $35 oz to $830 oz today a 95% debasing of the currency in 33 years with fiat money. Oil and real estate are about the same story as gold.

Pluto2,

Nice tidy little analysis. Thanks. It's good to see we're getting some value from the CIA.

One statement that I don't follow. You wrote that with unemployment at 7% the girls don't need the money. Are you saying, most everyone who wants to work already has a job?

Moliere

[Moliere]

Is that the same thing as "marriage for the form" that Babelfish translates?

Yes, the phrases have about the same meaning as far as I can tell. Брак «для вида» and Фиктивный брак.

Any philologists out there who know for sure?

[Qjump]

Wait for what?

For how long?

Why?

I was at dinner last night with a director of a small bank, all banks here are basing all projected figures on between 12 and 15 grvn to the dollar next year.

Hope that helps?