Kyiv

[RyanRyanRyan]

Anyone considering discretionary travel to Ukraine should guard against the "linear thinking" fallacy. Just because an area hasn't been attacked for a while doesn't mean anything. Russia's ground forces aren't winning, but neither are they losing to the point where hostilities are close to an end.

The situation in Eastern Ukraine is currently best described as a stalemate, with back-and-forth movement by both sides. That means, as long as hostilities continue, Russia can strike out at any area in Ukraine by dropping bombs or launching missiles. Kyiv was just hit and Lviv is still a target, as is any city for which Russia can claim a (real or concocted) military justification for launching an attack.

For anyone who thinks they're in a "safe" area, please consider that you're placing your faith (and life) in the idea that Putin wouldn't strike a purely civilian district. And you're also hoping that Russia's missiles and bombs don't go astray. As with all things in life, there's a risk-benefit analysis to consider. I'm not sure a mongering vacation tips the scales very much.

Everyone can decide for themselves, of course, but the point of this post is simply to observe that it's a bit too early to sound the "all clear" signal in Ukraine. Also consider that, if Putin's army continues to struggle and be stymied on the ground, that could make air strikes even MORE likely, as Ukraine might be able to stop some missiles and bombs, but they can't stop them all.

Some have tried to predict a timeline for the war's end, but that's a fruitless exercise with so many variables at play. Here's just one example of an unpredictable variable: There are reports circulating that Russia is trying to create a food and refugee crisis, most likely in Africa, in order to ramp up pressure on European governments. And some reports (unconfirmed, as yet) say that Putin has even dispatched teams of operatives to stir things up in certain African countries.

I have no idea what the next few weeks or months will bring, but rather I'm making the point that the situation is still volatile, and that Putin can probably hold out longer than many would expect. And also that, the worse things get for Russia, the more the risk they'll resort to desperate measures.

Here's hoping for everyone's safety and for Ukraine's continued success!

I was a lurker for a long time and finally created an account just to thank you for writing such a thoughtful comment. It's so well put and in a nice style, I love it. As for myself, I don't have yet anything to share since I haven't been in Ukraine in half a year. I cancelled my flight two days before the departure, which was supposed to be on the 18th of February. Thank you Luck.

[Nero6]

Anyone considering discretionary travel to Ukraine should guard against the "linear thinking" fallacy. Just because an area hasn't been attacked for a while doesn't mean anything. Russia's ground forces aren't winning, but neither are they losing to the point where hostilities are close to an end.

The situation in Eastern Ukraine is currently best described as a stalemate, with back-and-forth movement by both sides. That means, as long as hostilities continue, Russia can strike out at any area in Ukraine by dropping bombs or launching missiles. Kyiv was just hit and Lviv is still a target, as is any city for which Russia can claim a (real or concocted) military justification for launching an attack.

For anyone who thinks they're in a "safe" area, please consider that you're placing your faith (and life) in the idea that Putin wouldn't strike a purely civilian district. And you're also hoping that Russia's missiles and bombs don't go astray. As with all things in life, there's a risk-benefit analysis to consider. I'm not sure a mongering vacation tips the scales very much.

Everyone can decide for themselves, of course, but the point of this post is simply to observe that it's a bit too early to sound the "all clear" signal in Ukraine. Also consider that, if Putin's army continues to struggle and be stymied on the ground, that could make air strikes even MORE likely, as Ukraine might be able to stop some missiles and bombs, but they can't stop them all.

Some have tried to predict a timeline for the war's end, but that's a fruitless exercise with so many variables at play. Here's just one example of an unpredictable variable: There are reports circulating that Russia is trying to create a food and refugee crisis, most likely in Africa, in order to ramp up pressure on European governments. And some reports (unconfirmed, as yet) say that Putin has even dispatched teams of operatives to stir things up in certain African countries.

I have no idea what the next few weeks or months will bring, but rather I'm making the point that the situation is still volatile, and that Putin can probably hold out longer than many would expect. And also that, the worse things get for Russia, the more the risk they'll resort to desperate measures.

Here's hoping for everyone's safety and for Ukraine's continued success!

You are right in all you say. I just respond to a post a other member wrote here. I'am still in Kiev if other members are here in Kiev and want to have a talk. I also hope Ukraine will continued success.

[Jmsuttr]

I am in Kiev and been here for over 1 month now.

Are you in Kiev too?

Anyone considering discretionary travel to Ukraine should guard against the "linear thinking" fallacy. Just because an area hasn't been attacked for a while doesn't mean anything. Russia's ground forces aren't winning, but neither are they losing to the point where hostilities are close to an end.

The situation in Eastern Ukraine is currently best described as a stalemate, with back-and-forth movement by both sides. That means, as long as hostilities continue, Russia can strike out at any area in Ukraine by dropping bombs or launching missiles. Kyiv was just hit and Lviv is still a target, as is any city for which Russia can claim a (real or concocted) military justification for launching an attack.

For anyone who thinks they're in a "safe" area, please consider that you're placing your faith (and life) in the idea that Putin wouldn't strike a purely civilian district. And you're also hoping that Russia's missiles and bombs don't go astray. As with all things in life, there's a risk-benefit analysis to consider. I'm not sure a mongering vacation tips the scales very much.

Everyone can decide for themselves, of course, but the point of this post is simply to observe that it's a bit too early to sound the "all clear" signal in Ukraine. Also consider that, if Putin's army continues to struggle and be stymied on the ground, that could make air strikes even MORE likely, as Ukraine might be able to stop some missiles and bombs, but they can't stop them all.

Some have tried to predict a timeline for the war's end, but that's a fruitless exercise with so many variables at play. Here's just one example of an unpredictable variable: There are reports circulating that Russia is trying to create a food and refugee crisis, most likely in Africa, in order to ramp up pressure on European governments. And some reports (unconfirmed, as yet) say that Putin has even dispatched teams of operatives to stir things up in certain African countries.

I have no idea what the next few weeks or months will bring, but rather I'm making the point that the situation is still volatile, and that Putin can probably hold out longer than many would expect. And also that, the worse things get for Russia, the more the risk they'll resort to desperate measures.

Here's hoping for everyone's safety and for Ukraine's continued success!

[VinDici]

gold, or crypto are concerned, that's better suited for a separate discussion and beyond the scope of this post...

Neither Gold nor Crypto have the liquidity or market cap to enable Russian trade on the levels it was before they invaded and started this war with Ukraine.

[Jmsuttr]

Exactly, but the medium of exchange is not critical. You have to look at the totality of the economic exchange.

Money is a tool since, as you pointed out, you can't eat it, drink it, or otherwise use it directly. It's a medium of exchange that must be converted into goods and services one actually needs and wants. The easier the process, and the lower the transaction costs, the more people will be willing to use and hold that currency.

Within any individual country, the national systems ensure the free flow of their own currency. And the conversion cost, especially for cash transactions, is usually minimal or zero. That changes when crossing borders (or currency unions), and individual currency attributes become more important.

First, are the Russians discounting the oil? If so, that would effectively be a devaluation.

Second and most importantly, are China and India requiring the Russians to acquire goods from them. If so, what is the fair value of that exchange?

Any monetary transaction with Russia by China, India, or other, will ultimately be converted to (and mostly held in) rubles. That's because the capital controls regime imposed by Russia requires that companies convert at least 80% of their foreign exchange into rubles. That regime can be adjusted and tweaked, but Russian companies must follow Kremlin directives.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www....-b2070433.html

In the sense of flow, or movement, the combination of external sanctions and internal capital controls means that rubles flow into Russia more easily than they can flow out. If you think in terms of hydraulics, blocking or restricting the flow of fluid within a system generally has the effect of increasing pressure throughout that system. That increased pressure, if not alleviated, will likely result in damage somewhere in the system. And ruble outflows are very definitely being impacted by sanctions-caused bottlenecks and blockages.

I shy away from predictions, and I'm not an expert in economics or currency matters, but it doesn't take an expert to observe that these are abnormal times and the ruble is experiencing abnormal pressures. Some of that pressure could be alleviated if other countries were willing to stockpile rubles as part of their own foreign currency reserves. But I've seen no indication of that happening, not even with China and India.

As far as the dollar, gold, or crypto are concerned, that's better suited for a separate discussion and beyond the scope of this post. I just wanted to point out some of the unusual factors currently affecting the ruble. And I'm also keeping an eye out for signs of stress in Russia's economy and financial system. Will there be a leak or a blowout? And, if so, where and when? If you think about the hydraulic systems analogy, it's hard to pinpoint the danger areas before the problem manifests itself.

Also, FWIW, Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina is probably the smartest and most effective apparatchik in the Russian government. She's reportedly tried to resign several times, but Putin has refused to allow it. How long can she keep the system running in adverse conditions? That's a tough one to answer, and only time will tell.

[WyattEarp]

China and India will buy all oil from Russia in rubles gold yuan what ever.

Exactly, but the medium of exchange is not critical. You have to look at the totality of the economic exchange.

First, are the Russians discounting the oil? If so, that would effectively be a devaluation.

Second and most importantly, are China and India requiring the Russians to acquire goods from them. If so, what is the fair value of that exchange?

I don't want to get into the economic weeds on this because some of us have tried to explain this to limited avail. You can be given some slack because unknowledgeable business journalists make similar declarations about gold, bitcoin, etc. As new mediums of exchange. Let's make it simple you can't eat, drink, drive or generate direct cash income from holding gold or bitcoin.

What makes the Dollar attractive is that foreign nations like investing the United States. Like it or not, they like holding money in USA Treasuries. Trust me, China in particular doesn't want Russia buying there government debt or buying other Chinese assets. So some other type of exchange likely has to be worked out.

[Jmsuttr]

The ruble isn't rubble.

LOL you use the Atlantic LMAO as a source.

Blah blah blah.

Nice little propaganda about discounts LOL.

Lets see if if Russia has lost control of area by late summer or gained.

You can bark all you want, but that will tell the real truth.

Hopefully the war ends soon, but I have a feeling that little corrupt Ukrainian president is too busy asking for donations to wash in Cayman and swiss banks to stop.

You literally ignored all the sources I posted about the ruble = rubble issue, while criticizing the one source I provided that had absolutely nothing (zero, zip, nada) to do with the ruble.

Anyone can look down the page a few posts and see that the Atlantic article was about Crimean Tatars, and the problems they pose for Putin. That's the only topic of that article, nothing more. Meanwhile, the numerous financial sources you specifically and consciously chose to ignore are contained in this section of my post (conveniently edited out of your response):

"three posts specifically pointing out why the ruble is rubble, why Russia's attempt to prop up the currency is full of smoke and mirrors, and why those efforts have a limited shelf-life.

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...04#post2684104

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...64#post2684464

http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...61#post2687561

In each of those discussions I post my sources, which include officials from within Russia. Feel free to post any sources you'd like in rebuttal".

Four separate and diverse sources, all studiously avoided and completely unrebutted by you. In fact, given the tendencies you've displayed (ignore what's relevant and attack everything else), it's a veritable certainty that you haven't bothered to look at any of them. A rare combination of both intellectual dishonesty AND laziness, congratulations on achieving a new low in the forum!

If there's any LMAO chortling going on, it's the sound of everyone else in the forum laughing as they witness how your non-rebuttals are epic failures, as well as how utterly pathetic they are.

[Bill1963]

Hmmm, let's see, your last (and only) contribution about the Russian-Ukrainian war was back in early March, at which time you made the devastatingly relevant and insightful observation that everything is 100% Biden's fault. And you thereafter graciously pronounced absolution for Obama and Trump, which I'm sure is a great relief to them both.

Of course, since your last appearance was March 4th, you might not realize how much scintillating and stimulating discussion you've missed. Before dipping your toe in again, did you happen to take some time to RTFF and catch up? I think not because, if you had, you'd have noticed at least three posts specifically pointing out why the ruble is rubble, why Russia's attempt to prop up the currency is full of smoke and mirrors, and why those efforts have a limited shelf-life.

The ruble isn't rubble.

LOL you use the Atlantic LMAO as a source.

Blah blah blah.

Nice little propaganda about discounts LOL.

Lets see if if Russia has lost control of area by late summer or gained.

You can bark all you want, but that will tell the real truth.

Hopefully the war ends soon, but I have a feeling that little corrupt Ukrainian president is too busy asking for donations to wash in Cayman and swiss banks to stop.

The west will buckle before Russia.

Too much money flowing into the coffers, and the west lives and dies on the price of oil.

Lets see what the mood is when oil shoots over 200 a barrel by next year on its way to much much higher.

[Bill1963]

It's hard to tell if you want to have a serious discussion. The Russian Ruble rate is essentially being fixed. It's not really being used in international markets. Putin's demand that international clients pay in Rubles is just hot air. A foreign buyer pays a Russian gas or oil company foreign currency and then the Russian company is mandated to buy Rubles at the "official" rate.

You don't have to have a long history with foreign exchange around the world to know countries without free, open economies routinely fix or peg the exchange rate of their currency. With the exception of small trading countries (think Hong Kong), it's not realistic or sustainable. A black market for currency usually develops within the country. I suspect the penalties for trading Rubles for Dollars, Euros, etc. Are currently very draconian.

Well so far you are wrong and Russia is far from breaking and ruble-yuan is freely trading more than you want to admit.

China and India will buy all oil from Russia in rubles gold yuan what ever.

The bottom line is Russia is not losing at all and the oil is moving as its the most important commodity after food.

The word is by late summer Russia will have control of all Ukrainian ports so it will be interesting what happens on the movement of grains.

Lets see how things are by summer.

Is Russia gaining more area (as they currently are) or losing area.

I wish this was over tomorrow, but I think this will go on until the west can't handle the upward price of oil.

Its going well over 200 a barrel this coming year and probably into the 300's by 2024.

Lets see if the American public will support this war with 10,00 a gallon gasoline.

Can't imagine what price it will be in Europe.

Inflation will be through the roof around the world.

[WyattEarp]

I am in Kiev and been here for over 1 month now.

Are you in Kiev too?

LOL Nero. Don't you know HH has been fiddling while the Ukraine burned.

[Nero6]

Any fellow mongers in Kyiv? I have been arranging dates and have met some very beautiful women. I am still seeing the woman I was taking care of but I desire variety now that I have touched down. Lviv has been a wonderful city for me also. The women I met are just grateful for anything they receive and I am more than happy to provide.

I am in Kiev and been here for over 1 month now.

Are you in Kiev too?

[HulaHoops]

Any fellow mongers in Kyiv? I have been arranging dates and have met some very beautiful women. I am still seeing the woman I was taking care of but I desire variety now that I have touched down. Lviv has been a wonderful city for me also. The women I met are just grateful for anything they receive and I am more than happy to provide.

[Jmsuttr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/...20966003113984

May the next Anniversary Day find you in a place of peace, recovery, and an optimistic view toward a brighter future.

[Doc8008]

"Don't you dare trade your Rubles babushka. They are very, very valuable. Comrade Putin says so."

LOL, well put.

[WyattEarp]

Lets see which economies will break before Russia as OIL moves over 200 a barrel on its way to much higher.

I don't think your prediction in Russia will be coming true anytime soon.

But maybe you will get a roll in the hay in USA UK or EU for a roll of toilet paper.

Wasn't the Ruble supposed to crash and burn? Lmao.

Check a chart on that lately?

It's hard to tell if you want to have a serious discussion. The Russian Ruble rate is essentially being fixed. It's not really being used in international markets. Putin's demand that international clients pay in Rubles is just hot air. A foreign buyer pays a Russian gas or oil company foreign currency and then the Russian company is mandated to buy Rubles at the "official" rate.

You don't have to have a long history with foreign exchange around the world to know countries without free, open economies routinely fix or peg the exchange rate of their currency. With the exception of small trading countries (think Hong Kong), it's not realistic or sustainable. A black market for currency usually develops within the country. I suspect the penalties for trading Rubles for Dollars, Euros, etc. Are currently very draconian.

If this all sounds familiar to anyone who has traveled to the old communist regimes, it's because that's was exactly what was going on with the currencies.

"Don't you dare trade your Rubles babushka. They are very, very valuable. Comrade Putin says so."