Kyiv

[Uke Boy]

OK, I'll bite it. You can leave now from 7 am to 8 pm via E95 Kyiv. Vasylkiv.

A horribly bad suggestion, as is the walking.

https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804321.html

Two people killed, three more wounded over missile attacks by Russian military in Vasylkiv. Mayor.

[Reiner Otto]

I would try to go to a border town right on the Hungarian frontier either by hiring a driver and car or take the train if still running. You could avoid, at least in part, the influx of refugees headed to Lviv and the crowds at the border.

Another option: Border to Romania or _real_ Moldova. Not to mix up with Russian friendly PMR!

[NRandom940]

Please I admit that I made a bad decision. But as I stated before, no one thought Putin would actually invade. If Putin did not invade, we would be enjoying ourselves here. I have nothing to gain from falsifying a report, I only hope to contribute good by warning others not to come here.

What are your present whereabouts and situation? How's the situation around you? Keep us updated.

[Questner]

OK, I'll bite it. You can leave now from 7 am to 8 pm via E95 Kyiv. Vasylkiv.

[Jmsuttr]

Thank you friend it is much appreciated. The group I am travelling with, we are good friends and our goal right now is just to survive. Thank you everyone for the messages of support. The curfew in Kyiv was finally relaxed this Monday morning and it seems talks between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing, here is hoping to a quick resolution of the war.

If you think of things from Putin's perspective, he's already jumped in the deep end and needs to achieve a "win" at all costs. He's already a pariah to the rest of the world, and will probably be found guilty of war crimes. That means his only future lies within Russia, and he won't even have that if he fails. His supporters might endure and forgive all the sanctions and hardships IF he reclaims all (or a substantial part) of Ukraine. If he doesn't, he's finished.

At a minimum, IMHO, Putin will do his utmost to occupy and subjugate Kyiv itself. He already has the separatist regions, and he formally recognized them before invading, so he can't claim that as a win. In order for him to be able to claim a victory to justify the invasion, and be worthy of the losses Russia has already incurred, Kyiv is the prize he'll want.

One possible alternate scenario is if sanctions are able to quickly cause some kind of economic collapse, maybe Putin will lose popular support and-or the support of the elite. But that would need to happen in the next few days, because otherwise I don't see him stopping until he takes Kyiv. And that means street-to-street fighting, bombing, and all that horrific sh*t.

I hope and pray that I'm wrong, but it's hard to come up with any other scenario that allows Putin to save face, stay in power, and keep breathing. Inside Russia he has total control, unless there's a coup. From outside Russia the sanctions and pressures will take time to have maximum effect, and Putin will resist them as if his life depends on it, because it does.

Bottom-line, if there's any way to (relatively) safely get out of Kiev to a city that isn't in the line of fire, I'd seriously be exploring that option. Again, I hope I'm wrong, and I'd certainly like to hear what others think about possible scenarios. Wishing you and your friends luck.

[Sorbonne]

I hope you already know this, but a 60 km long Russian convoy is now heading from north west toward Kyiv and is about to start a major assault. This means the convoy itself is enough to encircle the city center with about 20 km diameter.

I would do everything to get out of the city before it starts. If no curfew right now, I would even consider walking out of the city possibly to south overnight, although certainly risky. Doing so is safer during daylight, but it could be too late. If you walk 10 km from the center, theoretically you'll be out of the circle. You can walk 4 km per hour. Once you are out of the city parameter, you should be much safer.

But I'm by no means an expert on this, so make your own decision.

[Tomasb]

From what I have been viewing, there are active saboteurs within Kiev seeking to infiltrate and assassinate local officials. According to the the Geneva Convention, these individuals could be legally shot on sight for wearing the military uniforms of their opponents. The reason for the curfew is to narrow down and find these Russian spies and provocateurs who would be wandering the streets because they have no homes to hide.

I am curious about how a group of men in their 60's could possibly think it would be safe to visit Kiev shortly before the Russians invaded, all in the search of pussy. It was almost a certainty this would happen to you yet you went anyway. Really remarkable and like other posters have commented, it's hard to feel any pity for your situation though I do hope you find a way out. Needless to say, spare no expensive in leaving. I would try to go to a border town right on the Hungarian frontier either by hiring a driver and car or take the train if still running. You could avoid, at least in part, the influx of refugees headed to Lviv and the crowds at the border. These towns are directly across from Hungary. The closest to the border will be the towns of Berehove, Mukacheve and Uzhhorod. The last town may the best place.

[Desin]

Since I'm not able to send private message, I'll post it here for HulaHoops and his merry gang of bangers.

"France's foreign affairs minister Jean-Yves LE Drian today told French citizens that they can still leave the Ukrainian capitals by land. "The routes out of Kyiv from the south are not, of course, completely safe, but there is an opportunity to leave the city," LE Drian said after a ministerial meeting on the situation in Ukraine.

LE Drian noted, however, that France will be unable to provide them with on-site assistance during the trip. He also added that French citizens can also leave Kyiv by train. France closed its airspace to Russian aircrafts on Sunday.

Ukraine's Unian news agency reported earlier on Monday that trains were still running from Kyiv's Central Station, although they were facing delays of 3-4 hours. ".

I hope best of luck to you and your friends. If you are able to leave the city, maybe one of you giving an expensive watch for the person who helped you. Along with agreed monetary compensation. Could be an appreciated gesture and a life long memorial.

[HulaHoops]

HulaHoops maybe this video might help you. Or least give you some inspiration.

https://youtu.be/PcOav_-kkx8.

Thank you friend it is much appreciated. The group I am travelling with, we are good friends and our goal right now is just to survive. Thank you everyone for the messages of support. The curfew in Kyiv was finally relaxed this Monday morning and it seems talks between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing, here is hoping to a quick resolution of the war.

[Wanking]

HulaHoops maybe this video might help you. Or least give you some inspiration.

https://youtu.be/PcOav_-kkx8

[HulaHoops]

Still not safe particularly. However as mentioned before we have paid a local man handsomely to help us and have met another american expat. Plus the older Ukrainian woman is still with us and she has been a source of help of us. I shouldn't need to state but there are no opportunities for mongering here right now whatsoever, the younger women are not interested in meeting up plus there's an air of resentment towards foreigners. The damage to Kyiv is quite sad and a once beautiful city is being destroyed.

We were attacked by Ukrainians who were angry that our western countries did not aid Ukraine (we are all white foreigners) however we are healthy now and have learnt to keep our heads down and just focus on survival. The attitude towards foreigners here is one of resentment and some hatred.

No mongering to be had in Kyiv for a long long time. To all other tourists / mongers in Kyiv or wherever in Ukraine right now: keep your head down and do not flaunt wealth or your western status whatsoever. Focus on survival and avoid even having any contact with single women. People are suspicious of foreigners right now, realize it will take some time to earn the trust of the Ukrainians around you. Of the utmost importance is to keep your identification documents on you and do not trust anyone with them.

[Questner]

[Deleted by Admin]

EDITOR'S NOTE: This report was redacted or deleted to remove sections of the report that were largely argumentative. Please read the Forum FAQ and the Forum's Posting Guidelines for more information. Thank You!

[Jmsuttr]

I'm sorry, but personally my first reaction to HulaHoops posts were that he is writing a parodical joke.

But just in case that is not the case, then there should be the possibility to leave Kiev. It's said that the civilians are free to leave Kiev, without Russian army targeting them.


edit: might be too late.

Agree, from everything I've read, that it's too late to leave. So any non-Ukrainian in Kiev (or other city) and unable to leave would be well-advised to find some kind of local support to help them navigate and survive the current situation. Some organizations, like churches, NGOs, or charitable groups, might offer help free of charge. Otherwise you might look for a local who will help in exchange for payment.

Whenever this crisis ends, I wouldn't be surprised if the hryvnia stays at a low level for a long time. If that's case, some kind of deal in which payment will be made in Euros or GBP or USD could be very attractive. Of course, your local benefactor will also want some or most of the money up front. But I think it would be important to offer a sizeable bonus for getting you through the whole crisis in one piece. And there's also the cryptocurrency option, although I'm no expert on that. Depending on internet access and what kind of bank accounts are involved, something should be able to be worked out.

And choose wisely, because there's always the chance they take your money and leave you high and dry. One suggestion, if staying in a hotel or Airbnb, talk to the manager or owner as a start. Good luck!

[Jmsuttr]

Until Russia made the foolish decision to attack, Russia was winning (by chasing off investors and destroying Ukraine's economy) and USA was losing (by making predictions that failed to come true), which is why no one expected an invasion. Invasion will be disaster for Russia. China wins because a bankrupt Russia will be forced to supply China with unlimited raw materials. USA also big loser, because uniting Russia and China not good for USA. As for Ukraine, they will probably fight their way free of Russia, but the price will be every high. Ukraine will be even more bankrupted than Russia, though maybe the west will bail them out.

Actually, USA might win if there is a coup in Russia, due to failure of the invasion, and then Russia gets a true democracy. Belarus will follow, and then the west could bail out Russia to prevent it from falling into China's hands. Invasion definitely not going well for Russians. Combination of low morale, undertrained conscripts, logistics issues (lack of fuel, ammunition, spare parts), poor air-ground coordination making ground vehicles vulnerable to anti-tank weapons, etc. Hopefully, they won't get frustrated and start saturation bombing Kyiv.

Putin has painted himself into a corner, burned his bridges (except for a problematic one with China), or whatever other metaphor you choose to use. His only choice is to succeed, either in real terms or in a way by which he can claim, even if it's propaganda smoke-and-mirrors, some kind of victory. Failure is not an option because it will undermine him at home, perhaps with terminal consequences. And, while it's absolutely true that the Russian military has the resources to (eventually) prevail, it matters how long, at what cost, and what level of brutality they use.

The next few days are key because, as soon as the banks and markets open on Monday, I expect the ruble to plummet and I also expect a run on some (Many? Most?) banks in Russia. There are already reports of long ATM lines. It doesn't really matter what the specifics of the financial sanctions are. All that matters is that Russian consumers and business owners have a level of uncertainty that triggers a "better safe than sorry" reaction. Nobody wants to have their money in a bank which might close for a "holiday" or might restrict withdrawals. Another possible reaction would be for people to buy tangible items that would maintain value in the face of a depreciating currency. Obviously the govt could step in with measures like price controls, but that would tend to drive people into buying and selling on the black market, at much higher prices.

And how will the elites and oligarchs react? How much leverage does Putin have over them, and vice versa? I have no idea but I do think this coming week is crucial. If Ukraine is able to hang on, the pressure on Putin will grow by the hour, exponentially.

About China, I absolutely agree with you that any help China gives Russia will come at a very expensive price. They're not friends, no matter how much they say otherwise, but rather rivals and even past enemies. Anyone who has watched China has heard them talk about their "Century of Humiliation" which, guess what, Russia was right in the middle of. Do a web search for Amur Annexation and see how much land (including Vladivostok) the Chinese were coerced into giving up. China has a long memory and, if Russia has to depend on them, the Chinese will looking to balance (or more) the ledger. One last note about China is that they have a tightrope to walk because they can't afford to alienate Western markets, especially Europe. So that will affect the quantity and quality of help they give Russia.

As far as the West is concerned, some countries are dependent on Russian oil and gas but that won't be enough to stop sanctions, and accusations of war crimes, and other measures that will ensure Putin and his elites are seen as pariahs in many parts of the world. Certainly that seems to be happening in Europe, even in countries formerly sympathetic to Russia.

I have no crystal ball but I don't see any positive outcome for Putin. Like you, I hope and pray that the situation resolves without something (more) horrific happening, like the saturation-bombing of Kyiv.

P.S. You couldn't pay me enough right now to be Putin's food taster or bodyguard.

[HulaHoops]

I'm sorry, but personally my first reaction to HulaHoops posts were that he is writing a parodical joke.

But just in case that is not the case, then there should be the possibility to leave Kiev. It's said that the civilians are free to leave Kiev, without Russian army targeting them.


edit: might be too late.

Please I admit that I made a bad decision. But as I stated before, no one thought Putin would actually invade. If Putin did not invade, we would be enjoying ourselves here. I have nothing to gain from falsifying a report, I only hope to contribute good by warning others not to come here.