Thread: Kyiv
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06-17-22 20:58 #22300
Posts: 710Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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06-17-22 16:44 #22299
Posts: 516Ukraine recommended for EU membership
https://globenewsbulletin.com/intern...eu-membership/
It's just the first step, but it's a positive development as it gives Ukrainians hope that they're fighting for a better future, not just a return to the old status quo (or worse).
Also, for those who are quick to point out Ukraine's issues with corruption, that is something the EU specifically says must be addressed before membership is granted.
"'Good work has been done' by Ukraine, but more is needed, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. Ukraine must make 'important' reforms on rule of law, oligarchs, human rights and tackling corruption, she added."
"Candidacy status is a significant step to joining the EU, however the whole process can take many years".
The current members must still vote, and I'm sure there will be many back room negotiation sessions, but the recent visit to Kyiv from the heads of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania (in which all expressed support for Ukraine in the EU) was a huge boost. And, as the article notes, it was significant that EU Commission President von der Leyen wore clothing in Ukraine's national colors as she made the announcement.
Congratulations to Ukraine!
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06-14-22 00:09 #22298
Posts: 1Sir,
Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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06-13-22 11:38 #22297
Posts: 30Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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06-05-22 18:42 #22296
Posts: 516Russia's not done. Kyiv, and all Ukraine, is still at risk.
Originally Posted by Nero6 [View Original Post]
The situation in Eastern Ukraine is currently best described as a stalemate, with back-and-forth movement by both sides. That means, as long as hostilities continue, Russia can strike out at any area in Ukraine by dropping bombs or launching missiles. Kyiv was just hit and Lviv is still a target, as is any city for which Russia can claim a (real or concocted) military justification for launching an attack.
For anyone who thinks they're in a "safe" area, please consider that you're placing your faith (and life) in the idea that Putin wouldn't strike a purely civilian district. And you're also hoping that Russia's missiles and bombs don't go astray. As with all things in life, there's a risk-benefit analysis to consider. I'm not sure a mongering vacation tips the scales very much.
Everyone can decide for themselves, of course, but the point of this post is simply to observe that it's a bit too early to sound the "all clear" signal in Ukraine. Also consider that, if Putin's army continues to struggle and be stymied on the ground, that could make air strikes even MORE likely, as Ukraine might be able to stop some missiles and bombs, but they can't stop them all.
Some have tried to predict a timeline for the war's end, but that's a fruitless exercise with so many variables at play. Here's just one example of an unpredictable variable: There are reports circulating that Russia is trying to create a food and refugee crisis, most likely in Africa, in order to ramp up pressure on European governments. And some reports (unconfirmed, as yet) say that Putin has even dispatched teams of operatives to stir things up in certain African countries.
I have no idea what the next few weeks or months will bring, but rather I'm making the point that the situation is still volatile, and that Putin can probably hold out longer than many would expect. And also that, the worse things get for Russia, the more the risk they'll resort to desperate measures.
Here's hoping for everyone's safety and for Ukraine's continued success!
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06-05-22 16:22 #22295
Posts: 324Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
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06-05-22 00:04 #22294
Posts: 516Flows, bottlenecks, and blockages.
Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
Within any individual country, the national systems ensure the free flow of their own currency. And the conversion cost, especially for cash transactions, is usually minimal or zero. That changes when crossing borders (or currency unions), and individual currency attributes become more important.
First, are the Russians discounting the oil? If so, that would effectively be a devaluation.
Second and most importantly, are China and India requiring the Russians to acquire goods from them. If so, what is the fair value of that exchange?
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www....-b2070433.html
In the sense of flow, or movement, the combination of external sanctions and internal capital controls means that rubles flow into Russia more easily than they can flow out. If you think in terms of hydraulics, blocking or restricting the flow of fluid within a system generally has the effect of increasing pressure throughout that system. That increased pressure, if not alleviated, will likely result in damage somewhere in the system. And ruble outflows are very definitely being impacted by sanctions-caused bottlenecks and blockages.
I shy away from predictions, and I'm not an expert in economics or currency matters, but it doesn't take an expert to observe that these are abnormal times and the ruble is experiencing abnormal pressures. Some of that pressure could be alleviated if other countries were willing to stockpile rubles as part of their own foreign currency reserves. But I've seen no indication of that happening, not even with China and India.
As far as the dollar, gold, or crypto are concerned, that's better suited for a separate discussion and beyond the scope of this post. I just wanted to point out some of the unusual factors currently affecting the ruble. And I'm also keeping an eye out for signs of stress in Russia's economy and financial system. Will there be a leak or a blowout? And, if so, where and when? If you think about the hydraulic systems analogy, it's hard to pinpoint the danger areas before the problem manifests itself.
Also, FWIW, Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina is probably the smartest and most effective apparatchik in the Russian government. She's reportedly tried to resign several times, but Putin has refused to allow it. How long can she keep the system running in adverse conditions? That's a tough one to answer, and only time will tell.
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06-04-22 17:47 #22293
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Bill1963 [View Original Post]
First, are the Russians discounting the oil? If so, that would effectively be a devaluation.
Second and most importantly, are China and India requiring the Russians to acquire goods from them. If so, what is the fair value of that exchange?
I don't want to get into the economic weeds on this because some of us have tried to explain this to limited avail. You can be given some slack because unknowledgeable business journalists make similar declarations about gold, bitcoin, etc. As new mediums of exchange. Let's make it simple you can't eat, drink, drive or generate direct cash income from holding gold or bitcoin.
What makes the Dollar attractive is that foreign nations like investing the United States. Like it or not, they like holding money in USA Treasuries. Trust me, China in particular doesn't want Russia buying there government debt or buying other Chinese assets. So some other type of exchange likely has to be worked out.
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06-03-22 19:22 #22292
Posts: 516Wow! One of the most disingenuous posts I've ever seen.
Originally Posted by Bill1963 [View Original Post]
Anyone can look down the page a few posts and see that the Atlantic article was about Crimean Tatars, and the problems they pose for Putin. That's the only topic of that article, nothing more. Meanwhile, the numerous financial sources you specifically and consciously chose to ignore are contained in this section of my post (conveniently edited out of your response):
"three posts specifically pointing out why the ruble is rubble, why Russia's attempt to prop up the currency is full of smoke and mirrors, and why those efforts have a limited shelf-life.
http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...04#post2684104
http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...64#post2684464
http://www.internationalsexguide.nl/...61#post2687561
In each of those discussions I post my sources, which include officials from within Russia. Feel free to post any sources you'd like in rebuttal".
Four separate and diverse sources, all studiously avoided and completely unrebutted by you. In fact, given the tendencies you've displayed (ignore what's relevant and attack everything else), it's a veritable certainty that you haven't bothered to look at any of them. A rare combination of both intellectual dishonesty AND laziness, congratulations on achieving a new low in the forum!
If there's any LMAO chortling going on, it's the sound of everyone else in the forum laughing as they witness how your non-rebuttals are epic failures, as well as how utterly pathetic they are.
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06-03-22 04:28 #22291
Posts: 71Lmao
Originally Posted by Jmsuttr [View Original Post]
LOL you use the Atlantic LMAO as a source.
Blah blah blah.
Nice little propaganda about discounts LOL.
Lets see if if Russia has lost control of area by late summer or gained.
You can bark all you want, but that will tell the real truth.
Hopefully the war ends soon, but I have a feeling that little corrupt Ukrainian president is too busy asking for donations to wash in Cayman and swiss banks to stop.
The west will buckle before Russia.
Too much money flowing into the coffers, and the west lives and dies on the price of oil.
Lets see what the mood is when oil shoots over 200 a barrel by next year on its way to much much higher.
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06-03-22 04:19 #22290
Posts: 71Originally Posted by WyattEarp [View Original Post]
China and India will buy all oil from Russia in rubles gold yuan what ever.
The bottom line is Russia is not losing at all and the oil is moving as its the most important commodity after food.
The word is by late summer Russia will have control of all Ukrainian ports so it will be interesting what happens on the movement of grains.
Lets see how things are by summer.
Is Russia gaining more area (as they currently are) or losing area.
I wish this was over tomorrow, but I think this will go on until the west can't handle the upward price of oil.
Its going well over 200 a barrel this coming year and probably into the 300's by 2024.
Lets see if the American public will support this war with 10,00 a gallon gasoline.
Can't imagine what price it will be in Europe.
Inflation will be through the roof around the world.
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06-01-22 17:26 #22289
Posts: 2041Originally Posted by Nero6 [View Original Post]
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05-31-22 15:37 #22288
Posts: 30Originally Posted by HulaHoops [View Original Post]
Are you in Kiev too?
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05-30-22 06:44 #22287
Posts: 43Kyiv
Any fellow mongers in Kyiv? I have been arranging dates and have met some very beautiful women. I am still seeing the woman I was taking care of but I desire variety now that I have touched down. Lviv has been a wonderful city for me also. The women I met are just grateful for anything they receive and I am more than happy to provide.
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05-29-22 17:55 #22286
Posts: 516Happy (1540th) Birthday to Kyiv, and many more!
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/...20966003113984
May the next Anniversary Day find you in a place of peace, recovery, and an optimistic view toward a brighter future.