Kyiv

[PhotoSlider]

Simple question: Is COVID an STD?

Let's say I end up in Kiev, and still never got infected yet.

Let's also for the sake of discussion assume that immunity for COVID doesn't last long. To be confirmed, I know.

Now, what level of interaction with a young beautiful Ukrainian female would increase / decrease my chance of contracting COVID-19?

Obviously DFK, as this is respiratory infection.

What about Missionary without a space suit on me? BBBJ? DATY?

I didn't research the subject myself yet, and understand it is somewhat similar to flu or bacterial infections like strep and staph, but maybe I am mistaken.

[PhotoSlider]

GFE, kissing will be hard to find in post lockdown era. I'm expecting some bias treatment towards Chinese too. Some will disagree with this for sure, but Chinese will have to pay more nowbto get little less mechanical service.

Price structure will most likely change. I doubt our hobby will get eradicated completely.

Kiev ladies operated during TB, syphilis, HIV, SARS, Zika, multiple invasions during revolution and world war 2, and more. There will be overpriced girls on one end, and an equivalent of truck stop lizards on the other.

There's game in the city right now. Girls are extremely polite. I expect higher intensity of viral risks and adventuresome undertakers taking more chances in May.

Curious to see how the city will adjust going forward. I have a hunch we shall remember 2019 the way we discussed River Palace for the last 5-7 years following the emergence of Viber, WhatsApp and Instagram.

Number of mongers and female contacts already went through Corona symptoms.

Stay safe, gentlemen!

[PhotoSlider]

Interesting and thoughtful analysis. I am curious as to where you are getting your death rate number from. I don't know of any site that I consider reputable reporting any established death rate that is anywhere near that number. I don't see that number on the Johns Hopkins site (which is the main site I have been following).

This number is the lowest accepted in mathematical modeling of COVID pandemic by epidemiologists, population geneticists, virologists, evolution theory experts, et al. From UK, Israel, Eastern + Western Europe, and US. In US it is NIH, and few leading universities. Unfortunately I cannot quote the sources at the moment.

What follows is a brain dump. TLTR.

The definition is simple. Death rate is the ratio of dead to the total population. For example in US it means 340 M * 0. 0037 = 1.258 M will be dead after pandemic is over. It will be much higher if the infrastructure gets overloaded, because Trump fired CDC director appointed by Obama, introduced his own useless idiot in charge, and reduced budget for pandemic events, assuming we are not a third world country susceptible to Ebola and shit, or simply because people do not follow stay at home policy, and infection multiplier (average number of persons each confirmed case further infects) is greater than 1.

0. 37% seems very particular indeed. Why not 1%, or half of a percent, or one tenth of a percent? Different regions and methods of calculation provide the range anywhere from zero to 13%.

0. 37% final death rate correlates with observations in different countries. At least order of the value is correct.

One of the examples is the island country called Diamond Princess cruise ship. Perfect container for mathematical modeling. It had a total of 3711 passengers plus crew. Currently 712 are confirmed, number of new daily cases is zero after peaking at 100. Number of dead is 13.

13 divided by 3711 is 0.35% dead of total population.

13 divided by 712 is 1.8% dead of total confirmed.

712 divided by 3711 is 19% confirmed of total population.

3618 or 97.5% of total population were tested.

As we can see not even half was infected due to quarantine in place.

There were similar calculations done in some locations in California, as well as for total populations of certain countries.

USA current death rate has reached 0.012%.

Slightly over 1% of total population is tested far from being wide enough.

0. 2% of total population are confirmed infected.

New York City (not the State of New York) is already at much higher 0.17% close to half of expected final. NYC will surely exceed that forecast as easier cases become more heavier without proper treatment or simply no access at all. BTW it is believed NYC received it mostly from Europe.

There are also estimates of percentages of dead out of confirmed. 1. 5% if treated, and 5% if no treatment is available. Confirmed in US may go as high as 15-20 M before we start seeing a meaningful reduction in the new daily cases. We are 5 times double away from that. We are doubling every 8-12 days at the moment. It'll go into June for sure, unless it gets worse due to lifting off restrictions.

Too early to say about Ukraine, as it is 2-3 weeks behind.

I shouldn't have spoken about plateau and steady state in my prior post. Underlying differential equation generates exponential growth or fade away. Therefore peak is reached, substrate is exhausted, and when multiplier becomes less than one, fade away asymptote is initiated going towards zero. People get overconfident and new wave of infections starts. That is what we observe in new daily cases for USA. Peak has been reached on April 4. Went down then second wave up on April 9. Currently we see third wave up.

[YummyPL]

but established death rate from COVID is 0. 37%.

Interesting and thoughtful analysis. I am curious as to where you are getting your death rate number from. I don't know of any site that I consider reputable reporting any established death rate that is anywhere near that number. I don't see that number on the Johns Hopkins site (which is the main site I have been following).

[Sirioja]

GFE, kissing will be hard to find in post lockdown era. I'm expecting some bias treatment towards Chinese too. Some will disagree with this for sure, but Chinese will have to pay more nowbto get little less mechanical service.

Asians already paid more than us, I mean Caucasians, even before virus, like US bought for more expensive, under panic, masks, to get before others.

[Gargano19]

How different of the world is it going to be? I would expect less of GFE, more individualistic isolated society. Relying on long-term regulars from both sides. Girls and mongers. Of course there are those that don't care. I am not one of them. Wasn't before, and not changing after.

Definitely bring your own condoms as supply routes will be disrupted, and Kozerog is right. There might be shortage or lower quality.

GFE, kissing will be hard to find in post lockdown era. I'm expecting some bias treatment towards Chinese too. Some will disagree with this for sure, but Chinese will have to pay more nowbto get little less mechanical service.

[PhotoSlider]

You don't trust Belarus? Fine. I also cited Sweden and Iceland as examples of countries with no lockdown and increase in death rate from all causes as well as deaths classified as due to covid-19 following same curves as countries with lockdown. There are also the developed Asian countries (Japan. Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan), but I don't have charts similar to those of euromomo for these Asian countries...

Here is my thinking aloud. Please forgive any miscalculations and my being too verbose.

I do have informative curves from John Hopkins for Japan and South Korea, and they are substantially different from each other.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

I look at histograms in the bottom right corner and switch from Confirmed to Daily Cases.

South Korea peaked beginning of March at 800 new daily cases, and steadily went down, counting about 20-30 cases now. 10 K confirmed cases, 200 dead. South Korea is essentially an island with rather dense population of 52 M.

Japan is also an island, with population of 125 M. It also has about 10 K confirmed cases and 200 deaths. Except Japan daily new cases are increasing from mid-March and currently are over 1000 new cases per day.

Neither Ukraine nor Belarus are islands. More travel, less isolated.

Both Ukraine and Belarus have similar curves, both are speeding up, both have about 5 K confirmed cases. Ukraine is currently at 500 new daily cases, and accelerating at about 10-12% per day, which is bad enough. 133 dead.

10% daily means doubling in 6-7 days. 10 times more in about 3 weeks. So, the Ukrainian curve is relatively flat, but not flat enough. 5 K confirmed today means 500 K in 6 weeks. End of May. Studies show actual infected rate is 5-10 times higher with many having less symptoms. 2-5 millions out of 30-40 millions means no herd immunity yet (like Sweden and UK want), but established death rate from COVID is 0. 37%. Meaning 20 K dead and increasing. 2019 death rate in Ukraine was 12-15 per 1000 annually. Rather high. That translates to about 30-40 K a month. Therefore 3 weeks before half of the population gets infected death rate will increase by 50%. By that time in Kiev one may start seeing what they experience in New York, Spain and Italy. Medical staff unable to treat adequately due to overload.

Belarus is the same - 5 K confirmed, 45 dead (less) about 500-600 new daily cases. But Belarus population is 4-5 times smaller than Ukraine. I trust stats from Belarus much less than Ukraine. Regardless, my impression Belarus is in a worse situation.

Ukraine started 2-3 weeks behind US / Europe. The bad news is that out of 5 K infected, one thousand is medical workers. The infrastructure is not overwhelmed yet, but will be within weeks.

While I agree that no country can withstand prolonged shutdown, I see that Ukraine is not that badly hit yet.

It seems that Italy started seeing fewer new daily confirmed cases, - down from 6 K+ to 3-4 K.

Spain had a similar pattern. Unfortunately the second wave was observed, not as high as the first.

US has reached plateau of about 25-35 K new daily cases for 2 weeks now. This could mean saturation in testing, overloaded infrastructure, or stable system in terms of spread. Every 30 K daily new today pass the virus to 30 K more tomorrow. Perhaps that number is dictated by the size of the population.

Ukraine did not reach that steady state saturation plateau yet.

What does it mean for Ukraine? Increased crime. Theft, burglaries, assaults, break-ins. There are reports coming from personal sources in Kiev already.

There are continued attempts to destabilize the country. At first it was stupid people causing fires in Chernobyl forests. Now there are reports of intentional arson in Zhytomyr area.

My interpretation of the facts seems to show that Ukraine is few weeks away from steady state (no acceleration in new daily cases). Then it will stay at the peak, then will slowly go down. Government will be forced to open up. Phased approach or much faster it may lead to the second wave. Just like with the Spanish flu 100 years ago.

There is currently no hard evidence that acquired immunity is long-lasting. Vaccine is 12-18 months away, if possible at all. HIV, Hep see and Denge are also RNA viruses and do not have vaccine created. COVID-19 is the third wave of corona virus in the last 20 or so years. SARS and MERS already went and gone, but this one is substantially worse in the strategy that virus is using. Anyway, I am expecting it returning after slowdown. If not this fall then perhaps in a few years.

I do not believe civilization will get wiped out. I do think that August-September is more realistic for opening up Ukrainian borders a little.

I like how New Zealand and Australia manage, but for practical purposes both are islands.

How different of the world is it going to be? I would expect less of GFE, more individualistic isolated society. Relying on long-term regulars from both sides. Girls and mongers. Of course there are those that don't care. I am not one of them. Wasn't before, and not changing after.

Definitely bring your own condoms as supply routes will be disrupted, and Kozerog is right. There might be shortage or lower quality.

[YummyPL]

an attempt to exterminate the lower classes in those countries by starvation.

I've been saying similar stuff about India. But developing countries are f**ked either way. They will have a much higher death rate from the disease or from economic destruction. But yes, in the long run, the economic destruction will likely have a worse effect in these countries.

[Kozerog]

...Belarus...

You don't trust Belarus? Fine. I also cited Sweden and Iceland as examples of countries with no lockdown and increase in death rate from all causes as well as deaths classified as due to covid-19 following same curves as countries with lockdown. There are also the developed Asian countries (Japan. Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan), but I don't have charts similar to those of euromomo for these Asian countries.

Evidence that lockdown is itself causing an increase in deaths is just arriving, since the lockdowns are so recent, and too complicated to argue about this evidence here, plus you don't seem too interested in truth. (I'm an investor, and truth matters a lot to me, since it affects my investment decisions. Note that I'm well positioned to profit from total destruction of the economy by continuing the lockdowns, so not arguing my own book.) Effect is small but growing in Europe. In places like the Philippines, South Africa, India, the effect is potentially catastrophic. Possibly intentionally so: an attempt to exterminate the lower classes in those countries by starvation.

[AZN Monger]

If covid19 were a serious threat, then of course anything is possible. But the evidence is pouring in that these lockdowns are overreaction and much worse than covid19 itself. Ukraine is a poor country and cannot afford foolishness. Not when their neighbor to the north (Belarus) has no lockdown and more or less the same results as Ukraine with lockdown. There are also the examples of Sweden and Iceland, but Belarus is the one that counts because it is so similar and so close. As of last Friday, government was talking about opening in May:

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/denis...-vzhe-u-travni

Unless the situation worsens in Belarus, expect the pressure for opening to be overwhelming within another two weeks. Watch the situation for both Ukraine and Belarus here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.

I trust Belarus reporting real cases as I trust Saudi Arabia stating that had no clue on Jamal Khashoggi's planned murder. Show me the evidence that the lockdowns are an overreaction. NYC will be 10 x worse with people filling the streets and restaurants.

[Sorbonne]

I like your posts more and more. I just don't understand why people don't see this whole thing as an opportunity. I don't want to belittle the deaths, but the Ukrainians will need outsiders to get their economy moving. I want to be the one to help do that.

I am an American but I am very irritated I missed getting to Kiev by three days before it shut down. I have been trying to ensure I get there as soon as the ban is lifted and my work colleagues are doing everything they can to get back home taking advantage of the two flghts that have returned to the USA since the lock down. I don; t understand them.

There was another flight from Kiev to the USA on April 15 and there will be 2 more flights within this month.

I was ready to board on April 15, but as we f***ed like there was no tomorrow on April 14, it was too late to board when I rose out of hangover on 15.

[Gargano19]

What the Ukrainian government will probably do, when they start to allow travel again, is require 2 weeks quarantine for all foreigners. Since I plan on 3 months in Kyiv, I can tolerate 2 weeks quarantine. But probably most mongers travel to Ukraine for shorter periods, so quarantine will be a big obstacle for them. Ukraine will definitely be much poorer as a result of this lockdown, and that will eventually lower prices for girls.

True for most countries where mongering is dominant.

Yes 2 week quarantine seems like till late this year, which would be a huge no no for most mongers.

[YummyPL]

Most Americans are piss-pants. NorskKing is a monger.

I like your posts more and more. I just don't understand why people don't see this whole thing as an opportunity. I don't want to belittle the deaths, but the Ukrainians will need outsiders to get their economy moving. I want to be the one to help do that.

I am an American but I am very irritated I missed getting to Kiev by three days before it shut down. I have been trying to ensure I get there as soon as the ban is lifted and my work colleagues are doing everything they can to get back home taking advantage of the two flghts that have returned to the USA since the lock down. I don; t understand them.

[Kozerog]

... But travelling would be long shot for a long time.

What the Ukrainian government will probably do, when they start to allow travel again, is require 2 weeks quarantine for all foreigners. Since I plan on 3 months in Kyiv, I can tolerate 2 weeks quarantine. But probably most mongers travel to Ukraine for shorter periods, so quarantine will be a big obstacle for them. Ukraine will definitely be much poorer as a result of this lockdown, and that will eventually lower prices for girls.

[Gargano19]

If covid19 were a serious threat, then of course anything is possible. But the evidence is pouring in that these lockdowns are overreaction and much worse than covid19 itself. Ukraine is a poor country and cannot afford foolishness. Not when their neighbor to the north (Belarus) has no lockdown and more or less the same results as Ukraine with lockdown. There are also the examples of Sweden and Iceland, but Belarus is the one that counts because it is so similar and so close. As of last Friday, government was talking about opening in May:

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/denis...-vzhe-u-travni

Unless the situation worsens in Belarus, expect the pressure for opening to be overwhelming within another two weeks. Watch the situation for both Ukraine and Belarus here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.

All countries are talking about opening it gradually. No country can take the toll of economic repercussions of complete lockdown of over 2 months. They have to open some places so that few can get their jobs back or run their businesses. But travelling would be lobg shot for a long time.