Philippine politics and economics

[GoodEnough]

Funny article. Pay US $ 160 for a visa for Philippines. As if! LOL.

I wonder how much, on average, a typical US tourist spends in this country. I'm guessing it's a hell of a lot more than $160. Now if you deduct from the total amount realized from US tourism by the inevitable fall in the number of US tourists, I'm pretty sure the math would not work in favor of the Philippines. So, this is idiotic on the face of it.

[FreebieFan]

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/148...st-a-local-boy

Could be yet another case of poor journalism / reporting or it could be Pres the mixed up his aid with his aids, or it could be that Pres the is really really really subtle (ya think??) and said one thing, whilst trying to actually say something something else.

Either way its a heck of a funny quote by the current loudmouthed fellow.

[FreebieFan]

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...-annual-income

The only reason I'm posting this article is to provide more evidence that it's not just Mister Duterte and Harry Roque who are vocal with spouting anti-American sentiments. I have little doubt the president of this budding autocracy could make this happen in a very short period of time. I just have the feeling his hatred for America would trump the heat he would receive from Fil-Ams and the business community.

The Philippines can implement whatever immigration policies it wishes. But of course all highly-developed countries outside of ASEAN place onerous restrictions on Philippine visitors for obvious reasons. Even their new BFF China makes Filipinos jump through a lot of hoops to receive visas. I'd admire this guy's balls if he had supported the inclusion of Canada, western Europe, China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand in his message.

Funny article. Pay US $ 160 for a visa for Philippines. As if! LOL.

[Keen Eye Joe]

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...-annual-income

The only reason I'm posting this article is to provide more evidence that it's not just Mister Duterte and Harry Roque who are vocal with spouting anti-American sentiments. I have little doubt the president of this budding autocracy could make this happen in a very short period of time. I just have the feeling his hatred for America would trump the heat he would receive from Fil-Ams and the business community.

The Philippines can implement whatever immigration policies it wishes. But of course all highly-developed countries outside of ASEAN place onerous restrictions on Philippine visitors for obvious reasons. Even their new BFF China makes Filipinos jump through a lot of hoops to receive visas. I'd admire this guy's balls if he had supported the inclusion of Canada, western Europe, China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand in his message.

[Soapy Smith]

I wish I could provide some plausible answer as to how the killing of alleged drug users and distributors will lead to a more egalitarian society, but I cannot as I'm as much in the dark as you are. Duterte's rationale appears to be that the nation has 4 million drug addicts which represent 4 million potentially violent criminals, and they must be eradicated or any hope for stability will evaporate. Whether this makes any sense absent a true justice system, I have no idea and I have no alternatives to offer.GE.

Lots to think about here. I don't disagree with anything you've written. Thanks for caring enough to sketch out your thoughts in this way.

[GoodEnough]

I would like to see the evidence for the militarily controlled narco-cartel, although it is not clear whose evidence--or public proclamations--we should believe. I read such claims, but I have not seen the smoking gun. I am not in country as you are, so I could be wrong.

Other than that I agree with your description of the Philippine condition. But despite your dislike of my fucking for chastity analogy, you really did not respond to my basic point: how can killing thousands of druggies possibly move the Philippines toward some semblance of rule of law?

I don't want to misstate his point, but I believe Hutsori has suggested a few times that some countries may just need to fight out a bloodbath to resolve their basic inequalities before the law. Perhaps this process is characteristic of the progression toward democracy, but I would sooner believe that violent force begets coercive systems, which in turn get overthrown from other violent actors.

There are various examples of other less violent progressions to democracy.

In 1988 Chileans forced a vote in which they turned out the dictator Augusto Pinochet in favor of a democratically elected President. Yes, lots of violent oppression under Pinochet, but his eviction was not fundamentally violent.

In 1987 South Korean students--triggered by the torture of a Seoul National University student--promulgated a democracy movement which led to General Chun Doo-Hwan being turned out in favor of a democratically elected President.

In Taiwan Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalist Kuomintang party ran roughshod over all democratic protest from the late 40's (after exodus from mainland China) into the early 1970's. But over time protesters leveraged a series of reforms, primarily after his son succeeded him as dictator, leading to a largely democratic government from the early 1990's to the present.

There are other illustrative examples, but none of them feature a President imposing a carte-blanche order for police or vigilantes to kill at will some group of crime offenders. I do not disagree about the horrific underlying power and corruption dynamics of the Philippines, but please just explain an underlying logic to me for how you believe Duterte's approach is going to solve these problems. If there is not a plausible logic to his strategy, why defend it?

I don't have an alternative. I'm the first to admit it. But I refuse to give up hope for a better way. The Philippines' dynamics sometimes border on incomprehensibility, but Chile, Korea, Taiwan, and other countries are not flukes.

I wish I could provide some plausible answer as to how the killing of alleged drug users and distributors will lead to a more egalitarian society, but I cannot as I'm as much in the dark as you are. Duterte's rationale appears to be that the nation has 4 million drug addicts which represent 4 million potentially violent criminals, and they must be eradicated or any hope for stability will evaporate. Whether this makes any sense absent a true justice system, I have no idea and I have no alternatives to offer.

I, like you, cannot cite any proof of the links between politicians, high-ranking military and police and drug trafficking. The allegations have been promulgated for a long time but Duterte's "lists" of high-level offenders is somewhat reminiscent of the Macarthy era in the United States. The bottom line for me is that I've got no idea of their credibility. Nor can I state with any certainty what Duterte's long game--if there is one--may be. Whether he's sincere, a potential autocrat, a true Federalist, or merely someone who acts on impulse is beyond my knowledge. And the fact is, I do not believe anyone really knows.

You're better grounded in the history of emergent democracies in S. America and Asia that I am, and I accept the accuracy of your descriptions. However, to my knowledge, none of the countries you cited as exemplars had the history of factionalized feudalism--or wardlordism if you like--that characterizes this place. There's an old adage here that government control stops at the border of Metro Manila and to a large extent that's true. Mayors and Governors here have been running their cities / regions like individual satrapies for a hell of a long time, and are unlikely to go quietly into that good night. Then too, clan, ethnic and tribal loyalties, the ubiquitous presence of private armies, the multiplicity of languages and indigenous cultures vitiate the probability of creating some sort of transcendent nationalism that would be a likely prerequisite of truly democratic institutions. In these respects, I imagine this country is closer to Afghanistan than to other Asian or S. American countries; more like the Middle East than the rest of Asia. My point here is that, within the regions and municipalities, citizens tend to be more generally loyal to their datus, or trapos than to the national government, making spontaneous democracy initiatives unlikely as what happens in Manila is largely irrelevant to people in Ozamis, of Jolo, or Dumageute or Zamboanga.

Various local Sociologists, largely associated with Ateneo in Manila, have pointed out over the years, that this country has never been successful in creating a true Filipino identity; that people identify with and feel stronger obligations to clans, tribes, municipalities and regions than they do to a vague national government in far-away Manila. It's difficult then for me to imagine how such a geographically dispersed and culturally diverse country could cohere for a long enough period to peacefully and spontaneously change the country. Duterte may be, for many Filipinos who live outside of Metro Manila, the first national leader with whom they can truly identify.

Finally, I am not defending Duterte. My perspective is that millions of Filipinos came together to elect a president who was largely detested by the ruling elite. I interpret this as a groundswell (though not a majority) of desire for radical change. Given the factors I've described above, I don't believe that the possibility for wrenching peaceful change is possible, though I wish it weren't so. As I've said many times before, I don't know how all of this will culminate: whether the country will eventually emerge as a vibrant, more egalitarian democracy, whether it will revert to the status quo ante, or whether it will become yet another tinpot autocracy maintaining only a pretext of democratic institutions. I would argue that, at this point, no one else knows either.

GE.

[Random99]

Blue collar crime aka drugs makes a big PR splash, but white collar crime has the same or more impact on everyone's lives. Corruption? Incompetence? Probably a combination of both that caused / continues to plague electricity rates in PH.

(the study was done by Meralco, so I'm sure the rates are even higher making PH worse, haha.).

http://www.philstar.com/business/201...ompetitiveness

[Soapy Smith]

Not a great analogy, but please share with us your view of the alternatives given: an entrenched, politically and militarily powerful narco-cartel; a closed economy that ensures that the rich retain full control over the financial resources of the country; broken democratic institutions including a justice system that doesn't work; one of the poorest systems of public education in Asia; a clear mandate to change the status quo and thereby make life better for the vast majority. And even though it's redundant to keep bringing up the point, killing--to establish political dominance, to destroy economic rivals, to preserve clan hegemony--has been a recurring theme of this country since it's been a country. GE.

I would like to see the evidence for the militarily controlled narco-cartel, although it is not clear whose evidence--or public proclamations--we should believe. I read such claims, but I have not seen the smoking gun. I am not in country as you are, so I could be wrong.

Other than that I agree with your description of the Philippine condition. But despite your dislike of my fucking for chastity analogy, you really did not respond to my basic point: how can killing thousands of druggies possibly move the Philippines toward some semblance of rule of law?

I don't want to misstate his point, but I believe Hutsori has suggested a few times that some countries may just need to fight out a bloodbath to resolve their basic inequalities before the law. Perhaps this process is characteristic of the progression toward democracy, but I would sooner believe that violent force begets coercive systems, which in turn get overthrown from other violent actors.

There are various examples of other less violent progressions to democracy.

In 1988 Chileans forced a vote in which they turned out the dictator Augusto Pinochet in favor of a democratically elected President. Yes, lots of violent oppression under Pinochet, but his eviction was not fundamentally violent.

In 1987 South Korean students--triggered by the torture of a Seoul National University student--promulgated a democracy movement which led to General Chun Doo-Hwan being turned out in favor of a democratically elected President.

In Taiwan Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalist Kuomintang party ran roughshod over all democratic protest from the late 40's (after exodus from mainland China) into the early 1970's. But over time protesters leveraged a series of reforms, primarily after his son succeeded him as dictator, leading to a largely democratic government from the early 1990's to the present.

There are other illustrative examples, but none of them feature a President imposing a carte-blanche order for police or vigilantes to kill at will some group of crime offenders. I do not disagree about the horrific underlying power and corruption dynamics of the Philippines, but please just explain an underlying logic to me for how you believe Duterte's approach is going to solve these problems. If there is not a plausible logic to his strategy, why defend it?

I don't have an alternative. I'm the first to admit it. But I refuse to give up hope for a better way. The Philippines' dynamics sometimes border on incomprehensibility, but Chile, Korea, Taiwan, and other countries are not flukes.

[GoodEnough]

Thats news to me. How many of the clan is presently incarcerated? I am shocked to know its the 'whole' clan. I know the aging patriarch died awaiting trial.

Who is maintaining the the fleet of bullet proof SUV's?

I am not much of a Phils news web surfer I admit. Most of what I pick up is from when I'm there, I'm just a frequent monger not a resident or businessman like most of the frequent posters here.

I am not sure how many clan members were arrested aside from the patriarch, who died in prison, and Zaldy, the son and ex-Governor of Maguindanao and then the ARMM. I believe several militia / bodyguards were arrested as well, but as to the rest, I do not know. I think I recall that several of the clan's houses were seized, together with a substntantial supply of weaponry. Unsurprisingly, the money which is alleged to have been found, somehow disappeared I think. It's difficult to know how the whole thing will eventuate given that it happened years ago and has still not been resolve in the courts. Evidently witnesses keep dying, the proceedings keep getting postponed and I have no idea whether life in Maguindanao is any better under the rule of the Ampatuan's political rival (whose wife was among the slaughtered) of continues much as it had before. The story seems to have vanished from the media's radar.

GE.

[Wicked Roger]

I am pretty sure we are not talking to the same Filipinos, so why do you presume the opinions of those you talk to are superior to those I talk to? I did not know the phrase "wind your neck in," so I looked it up in an urban dictionary. Have you ever heard of the expression, "the pot calling the kettle black"?

Possibly Sopay but those you speak to are not OFWs, ordinary pinoys so it seems. You have your head with the elite crowd who as GE eloquently noted earlier, have run the country as a private piggy bank and did not care for the rule of law (on themselves that is).

I don't assume superiority. Am just stating what I hear all the time. And if you are speaking to the rich persons ask them for a solution to the drugs etc and why the previous admin appears to have let it flourish, did little to help the common man, and kept poverty at around 26%, plus did no infrastructure projects to create employment etc. Even the much much vaunted PPP was pretty hopeless IMHO. Am sure your 'friends' can provide an articulate reply that you can somehow para phrase here so we all know. I have asked Amavida but he has no ideas how to solve a cancer like this (you agree it is a very bad pandemic situation? Or not?

If you did not know the first expression then that tells me a lot.

[Soapy Smith]

So before you mouth of please think about the dynamics of the country that you criticize and see it from their perspective.

You clearly don't as do others. It may not be pretty but the status quo ante is definitely worse for the majority of people IMHO and the majority of those I chat with / meet all love the president and what he is doing.

Ever heard of the phrase "wind your neck in"?

I am pretty sure we are not talking to the same Filipinos, so why do you presume the opinions of those you talk to are superior to those I talk to? I did not know the phrase "wind your neck in," so I looked it up in an urban dictionary. Have you ever heard of the expression, "the pot calling the kettle black"?

[Wicked Roger]

Thats news to me. How many of the clan is presently incarcerated? I am shocked to know its the 'whole' clan. I know the aging patriarch died awaiting trial.

Who is maintaining the the fleet of bullet proof SUV's?

I am not much of a Phils news web surfer I admit. Most of what I pick up is from when I'm there, I'm just a frequent monger not a resident or businessman like most of the frequent posters here.

I read the press daily Pantot as as some have noted the standard of reporting (and English) is varied and that is being nice LOL. Same story, different view depending on the likely political bias of the reporter / newspaper or is just the reporter is incompetent and can't articulate the facts correctly.

That said with regard to the clan you may not have realized that 1 member was allowed out on bail (PHP 11.6 million. Calculated based on PHP200,000 for each person dead so each person was not worth much! The reason for his release was even though he was in the room when the clan discussed killing everyone he did not say anything!! Amazing but true. Many netziens speculated that more than 11 million was paid to allow that sort of unusual judicial thinking. The same judge allowed 16 policemen to post bail of PHP 200 k each for the same incident! See the links below.

And he ran for Mayor under Binay's party in the recent elections!

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...n-p11-6-m-bond

http://www.rappler.com/nation/86230-...spect-released

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/663802/...n-granted-bail

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...ayor-under-una

So that gentlemen is around around the area looking after business am sure.

And where was Amavida when this happened, where was his FRs of righteous indignation about the 'beautiful country' being ruined. He was silent which goes to your comments about his connections and real motives for posting now and not then.

Read the loacl press Pantot it is always amusing and helps me understand what is going on but also shows me why that even if you live in the country you are always a visitor.

[Pantot]

However, once they massacred 40+ journalists, they could no longer be ignored, and the whole clan was put in jail, and though they've never been tried (and likely never will be) they are still incarcerated and I doubt they will ever be free given the snail's pace of criminal justice here.

Thats news to me. How many of the clan is presently incarcerated? I am shocked to know its the 'whole' clan. I know the aging patriarch died awaiting trial.

Who is maintaining the the fleet of bullet proof SUV's?

I am not much of a Phils news web surfer I admit. Most of what I pick up is from when I'm there, I'm just a frequent monger not a resident or businessman like most of the frequent posters here.

[Wicked Roger]

And so the underlying logic is what, killing our way to rule of law? I'm reminded of an old Vietnam War protest slogan: "fighting for peace is like fucking for chastity."

Soapy,

Read GE FR and answer as you sound like Amavida, full of criticism with no solutions. Not sure if you live or visit PI but surely you have sent the pandemic off corruption etc.

Speak to any OFW (I do a lot) and all support what he does as all realize how they have been truly screwed and will continue to be screwed unless someone tries to right centuries of wrongs (hard task IMHO).

The mayor with Humvee is one example, another mayor and family accused by D30 turned up to protest their innocence in Burberry scarfs, high end fashion clothes and cars. How can they afford that from the provinces.

So before you mouth of please think about the dynamics of the country that you criticize and see it from their perspective.

You clearly don't as do others. It may not be pretty but the status quo ante is definitely worse for the majority of people IMHO and the majority of those I chat with / meet all love the president and what he is doing.

Ever heard of the phrase "wind your neck in"?

[FreebieFan]

The problem for the president, and for local residents will be how to replace the slain Mayor with someone who is less corrupt, and to find people who actually give a damn about clean governance to run the town. Otherwise, the killing of the Mayor will not help the constituents, and his successor will perpetuate the same old crap that's held this province down for decades.

GE.

Wel all know that many do give a damn but they will never be the ones elected. The ones that will be elected are those that can afford the campaign costs, or can " borrow " the costs of a campaign on the basis that will pay back post election in cash or in amending laws that help those who helped.

It happens in every election there and indeed the reason why many want to enter politics ("I want to be in the government to help the people " LOL LOL LOL). And so the corruption starts at election time (sardines anyones?) and continues at all levels of government.

The only times of trouble is when a richer opponent surfaces and a more well connected opponent or a guy who has more rice and sardines than you do surfaces. Hence the cost of getting elected increases, hence the need to get more payback. And once the sweet fruit of being elected is tasted, well, a pink Hummer isn't too far over the horizon.