American Politics

[EihTooms]

...as another BM pointed out, Roosevelt did not do so great with the economy. We have Hirohito to thank for resurecting the US economy.

I try never to miss an opportunity to set this oft-repeated but bogus claim straight. Look at the charts for the dramatic decline in the unemployment rate, GDP growth surging, stock market recovering, etc. from mid-1933 forward and you will see all were doing spectacularly well YEARS before we were attacked on Pearl Harbor or got involved in WWII. There was a mild 18 month set back in the improvement on some important metrics around 1937 only because FDR let up on the New Deal stimulus in order to address the debt / deficit. But then it resumed right back to positive trend in the years before December 7th, 1941.

In fact, the USA Economy suffered during our involvement in WWII. There is no data showing improvement on the usual economic measures during WWII or in the aftermath of WWII. Conservatives opposed to the Democratic New Deal type approach to recovering the economy from typical Republican major economic downturns always claim FDR's New Deal was a failure and that wars are good for the economy. But it isn't true. If that were true, then our economy should have been roaring while we were in the midst of TWO wars during the Bush2 years and the early Obama years. But it wasn't roaring. Not by a long shot.

[EihTooms]

So much here to disagree with, so little time. I will concentrate on paragraph 2 and Jimmy Carter who I rate as one of the worst Presidents in the post World War II era. 1st, I think you are cherry picking some of the stats you cite to promote your argument. "back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of +7. 5% and +8. 5%". The volatile quarterly rates have no meaning. Look at the annual rates to understand the situation. I lived through this stuff. The Carter years were horrible. Here is the relevant information:

The prime rate outstripped the Federal funds rate, reaching 20% in March 1980. The "misery index," a Carter term which equals unemployment plus inflation hit 20 percent in 1980 as well, the first time since World War II. Stagflation and Jimmy Carter. The two go hand in hand. Then there is his bungling of foreign affairs: the Iranian Revolution, which we are still paying a huge penalty for now, and the US Hostage crisis which Carter completely mangled, oh yeah, I almost forgot the Russian invasion of Afganistan.

I consider Reagan, on the other hand, the greatest President of the post war era. I point to the end of stagflation, 20 plus years of economic growth after he tamed inflation with the 1982 recession (before you object you should read Paul Volker's thoughts on Reagan and what he did for the US Economy), WINNING THE COLD WAR and defeating the Soviet Union. The only other President that even comes close to this level of achevement is Franklin Roosevelt and as another BM pointed out, Roosevelt did not do so great with the economy. We have Hirohito to thank for resurecting the US economy.

But, you are right about one thing. Trump's plan to jump start the US economy is Reaganesqe or as the left likes to decry Supply Side. He plans to cut taxes across the board and get rid of Dodd Frank among other Obama era anti-growth / anti-business regulations. Yes, I expect the deficit will rise at first due to the tax cuts, the military buildup plus any fiscal spending Trump intends to implement, but after his tax cuts work their way through the economy and stimulate it properly, I predict we will see 3%, 4%, possibly even 5% real GDP growth. Of course, I could be wrong. But then so could you. So, we will have to just wait and see what happens.

In the meantime I will make you a friendly wager; if I am right about the GDP you buy me a ST session with any girl I want in Twister. If you are right, I will buy you a ST session with any girl you want in Twister. Do you accept? The bet: I predict 3% or higher real GDP within 18 months of Trump's Tax plan and the repeal of Dodd Frank signed into law.

One last thing, here are the facts comparing Reagan and Carter:

Year Inflation // Unemployment // GDP.

1976 5.8% /////// 7.7% /////// 4. 33%.

1977 6.5% ////// 7.1% /////// 4. 98%.

1978 7.6% ///// 6.1% ////// 6. 68%.

1979 11.3% //// 5.9% ////// 1. 30% (Second oil crisis).

1980 13.5% //// 7.2% ////// -0. 04%.

1981 10.3% //// 7.6% ////// 1. 29%.

1982 6.2% //// 9.7% ////// -1. 40% (Reagan Recession).

1983 3.2% ///// 9.6% ///// 7. 83%.

1984 4.3% ///// 7.5% ///// 5. 63%.

First of all, on the bet; it would all depend how GDP growth is accomplished. If the slightly improved average annual GDP growth rates achieved under Reagan vs Carter come about for Trump as they did for Reagan, by tripling the National Debt and skyrocketing the debt-to-GDP ratio, then Trump "accomplishing" the same feat is hardly worth celebrating with a wager win, isn't it?

I fail to see the startling improvement over anything in that recap of certain data for Reagan vs Carter. You get hyper-inflation as seen in the Carter years because wage inflation feeds into it. And you get wage inflation because there are too many new private sector jobs being created than there are applicants to fill them. Easy to bring that kind of "Morning in America!" result to an end; preside over an economy whose private sector jobs creation average is dwarfed by that of Jimmy Carter. You're showing Carter's average annual unemployment rate lower than Reagans. This is supposed to convince me Reagan's policies worked better than Carter's?

Sorry, but "I lived through this stuff. The Carter years were horrible", is not enough data to reverse the real data showing Carter's annual average private sector jobs gains dwarfing that of Reagan and every other Republican president before and since, just to name one way more important metric than how you felt about it. I certainly agree that Carter was a stiff while Reagan was affable and ingratiating, as long as you weren't on the wrong end of his massive tax increases on the lower income margins to pay for the disproportionate and budget-busting tax cuts for the wealthy.

[Member #2041]

The problem with the Reagan presidency is that it was catastrophic for anyone who was not a white male.

And BTW, Nixon and Bush I did more to defeat the Soviet Union than Reagan actually did.

Reagan did conquer the existential threat of Grenada, though, and he did prove that running up huge deficits is not problematic for the economy. A legacy that Obama has built on.

BTW, Natty, here's the bet I would propose, although the only place I could pay it off or collect on it would be in Tijuana: Over the course of the Trump Presidency, he adds fewer jobs to the economy than Obama did during his Presidency. It's A LOT easier to achieve a momentary growth rate of 3% when you're starting off with an economy that's been steady state at around 2% growth (actually it's been oscillating between 1 and 3.5%) than it is when you're starting off with a falling knife economy that's contracting at over 5% annualized, which is what Obama inherited.

And getting to over 3% briefly is nothing special, Obama did it several times. It's SUSTAINING 3% for a year or longer, and I will certainly bet that Trump does not accomplish that, unless he has Stephen Bannon fabricate some bogus fake statistics.

[Member #4698]

Ronald Reagan TRIPLED our National Debt. Last I checked, he was still the Patron Saint of all things "Conservative Republican. " And, sure enough, the country has not been destroyed by that wildly out of control typical Republican spending spree some 30 years ago. Not totally anyay.

And he did so after inheriting from Jimmy Carter better economic conditions than any incoming Democratic president inherited from an outgoing Republican president ever; back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of +7. 5% and +8. 5%, a moderate and reasonable debt-to-GDP ratio, a steadily declining unemployment rate, a steadily declining inflation rate, taking the Oath of Office right after one of the best 4 year annual average private jobs creation records in USA History, our being stuck in not two, not even one stupid ground war quagmire.

Of course, that didn't prevent Reagan from getting his stupid Republican-style Supply-Side / Trickle-Down economic agenda going (fast-tracked into the system in year one by Congress out of sympathy for his taking a bullet from a nut with a gun out to impress actress Jodie Foster), whereupon we immediately reversed that declining unemployment rate into a skyrocketing one to a point where we had a 10%+ headline unemployment rate for a whopping 10 consecutive months during Reagan's second and third year in office (the BLS calculated the now popular "real" U6 rate then just like they do now, but, haha, nobody talked about it then. Must have hit somewhere around 25-30% during the Reagan years). We got under Reagan then record post-Great Republican Depression era business closures and job losses. Beginning in his second year in office we found ourselves in the worst economic downturn since that Great Republican Depression of the late 1920's / early 1930's.

Which, of course, was a notable standard quite handily surpassed by Reagan-wannabe George W. Bush right after his version of Reaganomics got cooked into the system. Trump's proposals for the economy look no different than what those guys proposed or what the Republicans proposed and passed in the mid/late 1920s in the lead up to the Great Republican Crash and Depression. Only "Yuger!" and "Greater!!" lol.

So much here to disagree with, so little time. I will concentrate on paragraph 2 and Jimmy Carter who I rate as one of the worst Presidents in the post World War II era. 1st, I think you are cherry picking some of the stats you cite to promote your argument. "back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of +7. 5% and +8. 5%". The volatile quarterly rates have no meaning. Look at the annual rates to understand the situation. I lived through this stuff. The Carter years were horrible. Here is the relevant information:

The prime rate outstripped the Federal funds rate, reaching 20% in March 1980. The "misery index," a Carter term which equals unemployment plus inflation hit 20 percent in 1980 as well, the first time since World War II. Stagflation and Jimmy Carter. The two go hand in hand. Then there is his bungling of foreign affairs: the Iranian Revolution, which we are still paying a huge penalty for now, and the US Hostage crisis which Carter completely mangled, oh yeah, I almost forgot the Russian invasion of Afganistan.

I consider Reagan, on the other hand, the greatest President of the post war era. I point to the end of stagflation, 20 plus years of economic growth after he tamed inflation with the 1982 recession (before you object you should read Paul Volker's thoughts on Reagan and what he did for the US Economy), WINNING THE COLD WAR and defeating the Soviet Union. The only other President that even comes close to this level of achevement is Franklin Roosevelt and as another BM pointed out, Roosevelt did not do so great with the economy. We have Hirohito to thank for resurecting the US economy.

But, you are right about one thing. Trump's plan to jump start the US economy is Reaganesqe or as the left likes to decry Supply Side. He plans to cut taxes across the board and get rid of Dodd Frank among other Obama era anti-growth / anti-business regulations. Yes, I expect the deficit will rise at first due to the tax cuts, the military buildup plus any fiscal spending Trump intends to implement, but after his tax cuts work their way through the economy and stimulate it properly, I predict we will see 3%, 4%, possibly even 5% real GDP growth. Of course, I could be wrong. But then so could you. So, we will have to just wait and see what happens.

In the meantime I will make you a friendly wager; if I am right about the GDP you buy me a ST session with any girl I want in Twister. If you are right, I will buy you a ST session with any girl you want in Twister. Do you accept? The bet: I predict 3% or higher real GDP within 18 months of Trump's Tax plan and the repeal of Dodd Frank signed into law.

One last thing, here are the facts comparing Reagan and Carter:

Year Inflation // Unemployment // GDP.

1976 5.8% /////// 7.7% /////// 4. 33%.

1977 6.5% ////// 7.1% /////// 4. 98%.

1978 7.6% ///// 6.1% ////// 6. 68%.

1979 11.3% //// 5.9% ////// 1. 30% (Second oil crisis).

1980 13.5% //// 7.2% ////// -0. 04%.

1981 10.3% //// 7.6% ////// 1. 29%.

1982 6.2% //// 9.7% ////// -1. 40% (Reagan Recession).

1983 3.2% ///// 9.6% ///// 7. 83%.

1984 4.3% ///// 7.5% ///// 5. 63%.

[Member #2041]

True, but how long do you predict the dollar can remain the world reserve currency. 10 years, 25 years more? The idea used to be unthinkable. Not any longer.

Well, for sure the Euro won't be replacing it, now that the Eurozone is coming apart. So what's left? Bitcoin? (That's a joke, in case someone wants to take it seriously).

[Member #4698]

A debt that can't be repaid, won't be repaid. <snip> So long as USA can continue to beat back efforts to supplant its dollar as world reserve currency, the game will keep rolling along.

True, but how long do you predict the dollar can remain the world reserve currency. 10 years, 25 years more? The idea used to be unthinkable. Not any longer.

[EihTooms]

To quote Dick Cheney: "Ronald Reagan proved that deficits don't matter ".

Ronald Reagan TRIPLED our National Debt. Last I checked, he was still the Patron Saint of all things "Conservative Republican. " And, sure enough, the country has not been destroyed by that wildly out of control typical Republican spending spree some 30 years ago. Not totally anyay.

And he did so after inheriting from Jimmy Carter better economic conditions than any incoming Democratic president inherited from an outgoing Republican president ever; back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of +7. 5% and +8. 5%, a moderate and reasonable debt-to-GDP ratio, a steadily declining unemployment rate, a steadily declining inflation rate, taking the Oath of Office right after one of the best 4 year annual average private jobs creation records in USA History, our being stuck in not two, not even one stupid ground war quagmire.

Of course, that didn't prevent Reagan from getting his stupid Republican-style Supply-Side / Trickle-Down economic agenda going (fast-tracked into the system in year one by Congress out of sympathy for his taking a bullet from a nut with a gun out to impress actress Jodie Foster), whereupon we immediately reversed that declining unemployment rate into a skyrocketing one to a point where we had a 10%+ headline unemployment rate for a whopping 10 consecutive months during Reagan's second and third year in office (the BLS calculated the now popular "real" U6 rate then just like they do now, but, haha, nobody talked about it then. Must have hit somewhere around 25-30% during the Reagan years). We got under Reagan then record post-Great Republican Depression era business closures and job losses. Beginning in his second year in office we found ourselves in the worst economic downturn since that Great Republican Depression of the late 1920's / early 1930's.

Which, of course, was a notable standard quite handily surpassed by Reagan-wannabe George W. Bush right after his version of Reaganomics got cooked into the system. Trump's proposals for the economy look no different than what those guys proposed or what the Republicans proposed and passed in the mid/late 1920s in the lead up to the Great Republican Crash and Depression. Only "Yuger!" and "Greater!!" lol.

[Golfinho]

And to get what little Obama got he doubled the National Debt to 20 Trillion Dollars by borrowing more money than all other Presidents combined. If nothing is done to reduce this debt it will one day destroy us. a

A debt that can't be repaid, won't be repaid.

No need for you to lose any sleep over your being destroyed by budget deficit.

So long as USA can continue to beat back efforts to supplant its dollar as world reserve currency, the game will keep rolling along.

[D Cups]

Like a dog returns to eat its own vomit. Vile, mangy, flea-infested stupid dog.

I'll also go on record .

.

[Member #2041]

To quote Dick Cheney: "Ronald Reagan proved that deficits don't matter ".

[D Cups]

You got to excuse for this, too, democraps?

Member #2041,he doubled the National Debt to 20 Trillion Dollars by borrowing more money than all other Presidents combined. If nothing is done to reduce this debt it will one day destroy us.

.

.

[D Cups]

actual merits of Obama's Presidency,

Worthless.

[D Cups]

worthless.

Sums it quite nicely, 2041. Cry some more. Eventually some other democrap will change your the-I-a-p-e-are for you.

[D Cups]

Funny stuff. ].

Meanwhile, check out the crime in the ex-president's hometown of Chicago. That's real funny, too. Who you going to blame for that, GE? Al Capone? Lawlessness and disrespect for people and property blossumed under obummer. Real funny.

[Member #2041]

Waaaaa waaaa waaaaa more excuses from the crybabies. Get your mama to change your

You can join the substantive part of the discussion which people on both sides are engaged in, or you can continue to act like the worthless douchebag you are. We know what we're expecting.